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Project Better Place
- Thread starter tonybelding
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- Electric Vehicles
brianoflondon
Member
Two guys who love Hydrogen and throw around accusations of malfeasance with no evidence? You're having a laugh right?
Have you seen this story about Hydrogen powered Taxis at the London Olympics being flat bed transported 130 miles ever night by diesel truck to fill up?
Olympic hydrogen cars fill up in Swindon From Swindon Advertiser)
It's a hoot!
I think you'll find that Jack Rickard is anti-Hydrogen for use in transportation... you'll find plenty of discussion about that in the videos... why do you think otherwise?
brianoflondon
Member
On the strength of unsubstantiated allegations I suspect I won't be paying much attention to anything else those two have to say.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Yes, Jack is firmly anti hydrogen for passenger vehicles. He also has a pretty good understanding of the EV industry, and like many of us sees the folly in the BP business model.
reference to anti-hydrogen wasn't hard to find in the blog... "I still think it holds the secret to all understanding of the universe. I just don’t think I want to be in a car with it. Too many steps. It is, to say the least, inelegant in personal transportation." so think you're wrong there...
You can also see a lot more here;
[video]http://media3.ev-tv.me/news060112-1280.mov[/video]
brianoflondon
Member
I'm sure the 200km round trip I just made was a complete scam then. I must remember to tell the person I met in Haifa that I was not in his office and I didn't have a quick lunch with him before returning via another customer and travelling all the way home at 120 to 130kmh without regard to power use. It's 36C here today. I have no idea what that does to my battery, I was never less than 30% today.
brianoflondon
Member
I didn't listen to much past the Hydrogen mysticism. I agree, unless we can fuse it with more Hydrogen it's not going to be a useful fuel.
nothing... if you have a battery designed for use at those ambient temperatures.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Completely missing the point. You can make that same trip without the BP business model.
You can make this trip with horse and carriage too.
The BP business model is supposed to give the user more convenience in exchange for extra money. I see nothing wrong with that.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
There is nothing wrong with that if you think it's worth it. I don't. I just think there are better ways to do it, without BP, for less money. Tesla has the right idea, longer range vehicles that don't need swapping to make most trips, access to a fast charge network, and the potential to swap their batteries if needed, all without a third party generating extra expenses and taking extra profit. Everything BP does can be done better and for less expense by EV builders and power companies.
It is my understanding that in most situations, a BP model is cheaper than slapping on a bigger battery to take care of the last 5% of trips that are longer. My (rough) calculation for Israel and Europe:
The typical driver in Europe is probably doing 1-2 trips beyond the 80 mile range per month. These require either a bigger battery or a BP swap station in order to be considered "convenient", or a 30 minute fast charge.
To get a bigger battery, say 80 more miles for 160 miles total, would cost something like 10,000$. This amortised over 10 years at 8% is 1,500$ a year, or 125$ a month. It means you are paying 125/2 = 62.5$ not to swap or fast charge by getting a bigger battery. So what is, in comparison, the cost of swapping or fast charging per one swap/charge?
I calculated that in the cost of one swap in Israel, assuming full network roll-out and around 20,000 cars on the road(around 1% of total cars on the road), the cost of a swap would be around 12$, all in. Its a bit of a long calculation that I can repeat if you like, but that's the order of magnitude.
However, the same calculation for fast charging gives a 4$ cost per fast charge, all in.
So, the dilemma here seems simple - how much is your time worth to you?
For 4$, you have to wait 30 minutes to quick charge. To cut this to 5 minutes(a swap), you add 8$ more. 8$ for 25 minutes, or 19.5$ per hour. I guess some would pay this difference for the added convenience.
But you can cut these 5 minutes of swapping for an extra 50$ with a bigger battery! Doesn't seem like a bargain to me, really. May be to some heavy users or high powered execs, but not really economic otherwise. It's a bit like what Elon Musk did once, driving a McLaren F1 to work. Pretty cool, but massively stupid really.
So in my opinion, a larger battery is not a viable mass market solution at current battery prices/specs, or for the foreseeable future for that matter given the massive price difference.
Most will probably opt for fast charging. Some might get on the BP bandwagon for the added convenience and to save time.
And as I've said - if it's of real interest, we could do the cost calculation together to see if my estimates are correct.
it is not just that a typical european will only goes 1-2 times a month more than 80 miles (i think it is less) in cities like Berlin, Hamburg, Munich, Prag, Paris or Brussel mostly people are already looking for a parking space around the place where they live for about 30min! daily. they will not have a chance to charge at home. they need to charge or swap like BP some where else.
Yep. According to Renault, 30% of all segment B cars(small cars like clio) NEVER travel over 100 miles, EVER.
As for parking, I think the Renault Twizy is a pretty nice solution for that : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R6dAZkwgkeA&feature=related
As for charging spots on the street, I believe that at some point, every parking space will have a charging spot.
Why? We are setting up a "charging corall" in the centre of our town that will use a supermarket car park that's normally empty at night. That's for people who can't charge during the day at work, library, supermarket, pub, restaurant, gym, car park, etc., etc.
You're ignoring the fact that in much of Europe a 43kW 'fast' Charging Station will cost less than $500 and can be everywhere... how many $1M+ swap stations do you think will be located within 30 minutes of your desired location?
In my example of 20,000 EV's on the BP model in Israel(1% of cars on the road), you need around 40 swap stations across Israel. That means a swap station 10-15 miles from where I live, around 20-30 minutes away. It's all in the BP website with the planned station coverage, there are 2 stations at that distance. 1M$ isn't that far off from the cost of a modern gas station, and I have 2 of those 5 mins away in each direction.
As for the 500$ chameleon charger compatible charging station... Yes, this would lower the 4$ cost per charge somewhat. However, one should also consider that even if you have access to 43KW of power(a lot of places don't), the installation cost of such a station plus permitting is not free. In some instances digging and grid upgrades might be required to get stations running en masse.
Another consideration in favor of the BP model is the curve flattening of the electricity supply. BP schedules charging for the vehicles on its network according to a priority algorithm, which helps to avoid demand spikes and flattens the demand curve, and in turn makes the electricity a lot cheaper and most importantly, avoids the need for some massive grid upgrades when EV's REALLY take off. It's not as easy to do with lots of quick charging stations that are supposed to supply 43KW of juice on demand.
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Excuse me, 2 mistakes in my reply:
I meant 40 swap stations per 20,000 vehicles, not 400
That means a swap station 10-15 miles from where I live, around 20-30 minutes away. It's all in the BP website with the planned station coverage, there are 2 stations at that distance.
The second thing is - 500$ was supposed to be the quick charging station compatible with the Renault 43KW chameleon charger, not the charger itself.
Corrected previous post in editing.
I meant 40 swap stations per 20,000 vehicles, not 400
That means a swap station 10-15 miles from where I live, around 20-30 minutes away. It's all in the BP website with the planned station coverage, there are 2 stations at that distance.
The second thing is - 500$ was supposed to be the quick charging station compatible with the Renault 43KW chameleon charger, not the charger itself.
Corrected previous post in editing.
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JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I'll take your numbers at face value, but with the caveat that batteries are improving as are prices, so the calculations will change each year. One of my big problems with BP is that it's a complex expensive solution to a temporary circumstance. In truth the cheaper short term solution for those who have range issues is a plug in hybrid such as the Volt. No extra batteries need to be built to stock at swap stations, and no swap stations need to be constructed. Plus you don't have to charge at BP's elevated prices, just plug in at home or work. As batteries continue to improve and costs continue to drop pure EV's make more sense for more people. No BP needed.
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