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Project Better Place

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Excuse me, 2 mistakes in my reply:

I meant 40 swap stations per 20,000 vehicles, not 400 :p
That means a swap station 10-15 miles from where I live, around 20-30 minutes away. It's all in the BP website with the planned station coverage, there are 2 stations at that distance.

The second thing is - 500$ was supposed to be the quick charging station compatible with the Renault 43KW chameleon charger, not the charger itself.

Corrected previous post in editing.

Edwargo has done a pretty admirable job of figuring out the original business plans of Better Place from first principles. I agree with most of his calcs but I think that, unfortunately, where Better Place really gets intersting financially is behind the scenes with the grid and energy providers. The cars and the customers are probably a break even play: the re-use of those assets for grid storage especially once lunatic carbon policies and targets are combined with government grants makes this whole future prediction game rather hard for outsiders like us.

I've kind of stopped doing that. I don't think it's all plain sailing for Better Place corporate but 78 days into ownership it's all just getting better as a customer. They're opening stations at two or three every two weeks and the car continues to work.

I have a sneaking suspicion they're short filling the batteries a little at the moment, because it's been unremittingly hot for 2 months now (this has been a really hot summer even for Israel and basically my car's ambient temperature has never been below 29C for 2 months now even at night). I know this because I can switch the display from % to kWh and whereas before I used to see 21.7 in the morning now I'm seeing 20.5. Both of which are called 100%.

Nevertheless it still continues not to matter. I'm either driving easily beyond range and in need of a switch or easily under range. The car continues to be an absolute joy to drive and is easily superior to anything costing up to 50% more to purchase. As an example, I just bought a diesel Hyundai Santa Fe which costs roughly twice what my Renault cost. It's a great modern diesel and it really is pretty quick, but I just can't enjoy driving it after driving electric!

My costs are fixed relative to gasoline (which has gone up mostly on the strength of the dollar).

It might be a temporary solution, but by the end of this year close to or beyond 1% of new deliveries of cars in Israel will be battery powered. That blows every other country in the world way out of the water. It's a huge achievement. People will be driving these cars who have no interest in how the car works, just that it works. That is also, I think, going to be a unique factor. I just don't believe there will be a big enough battery at a cheap enough price for the next 5 years to do what I now do with switching.

Looking online and reading forums I don't think there are EV drivers anywhere in the world who are dis-interested: perhaps a few Volt owners but even they had to make a huge internal financial decision to pay all that extra money up front. It's very important that the plug in EV becomes just normal: petrol, diesel, electric, whatever as the kids would say.

As the Fluence ZE starts getting deployed in the company car fleets and given to employees who didn't seek it out, that's when it's going to get interesting. I believe this is starting to happen now.
 
One of my big problems with BP is that it's a complex expensive solution to a temporary circumstance. In truth the cheaper short term solution for those who have range issues is a plug in hybrid such as the Volt. No extra batteries need to be built to stock at swap stations, and no swap stations need to be constructed. Plus you don't have to charge at BP's elevated prices, just plug in at home or work. As batteries continue to improve and costs continue to drop pure EV's make more sense for more people. No BP needed.
I think that if you do the math, you'll see that this "expensive" BP solution is not so expensive when compared with an extra 10,000$ of battery(like I mentioned), or and extra 8,000$ for a parallel gasoline powertrain. The BP solution IS a lot cheaper than those, AT SCALE. It's like a gas station is extremely expensive for a few cars when everyone is using horses. But once you have enough cars on the road(around 1% of total cars on the road), the cost tilts heavily in favor of the BP model.

As batteries continue to improve and costs continue to drop pure EV's make more sense for more people. No BP needed.

This is an important comment, and it is something a lot of people miss about the business model.

People often don't want to buy an EV because there is a perceived mismatch between the life of the car and the life of the battery, plus an uncertainty about the pace of battery improvement. The BP model solves all that very neatly.

At the moment, Renault predicts a gradual improvement of around 8% overall(cost, weight, capacity, life, everything all in) a year in batteries over the next 10 years. Thierry Koskas specifically said they expect no major breakthroughs, just gradual improvements. The BP model only becomes obsolete when a 100 NEDC miles battery costs around 2,000$, or 5 times cheaper than today. Really, really far off. Maybe a bit like petrol stations were a temporary solution to a transportation problem? For 100 years or so transitioning from horses to electricity. So the BP model might be obsolete in 20-30 years, but so what?

Now, lets say that BP has a stock of batteries, and new batteries get better rather fast. You have an older battery, 5 years old, that isn't up to snuff compared to the new ones. What to do?

Simple - you offer it at a discount to the new battery, say 20% less, to students, or in India(where they drive 10 miles a day), or whatever. Sure, some people would still prefer to pay more for the new battery, but there are always those who will go - whatever, its cheaper and I don't need the fancy battery, I'll take it.

But notice something - by the time you have to give a discount, the price of oil has risen, so that 20% discount may be actually more in absolute terms compared with a new battery per mile cost to the consumer 5 years ago. Actually, considering the amortised cost of the battery after 5 years, you are probably making a bigger Return on Investment on the old battery after 20% discounts than on a new awesome battery.

That's the thing - it's a business with improving economics over time, even with gradual battery improvements. And even if the old batteries somehow get obsolete overnight - so what? It's just inventory. These things happen in the mobile phones industry all the time, a part of the business. You compensate by earning relatively high margins.
 
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Perfect example, faster EV adoption than Israel without BP.
and here's one of the 10 or so EV charging networks being deployed in the UK today... this one, "Zero:Net", has 122 locations live at a total cost of less than $250K :smile:

ZeroNet_30_July_2012_122_Locations.png
 
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You assume that only BP can offer upgraded batteries and sell used batteries for another use, which is not the case. Any EV can be upgraded with better batteries in the future.
Of course you can do it. You would also need to somehow sell the old battery and finance the new one. Better place just make it seamless for the consumer who doesn't want to be bothered.

Don't misunderstand, I think quick charging is probably the way to go for 80%-90% of users as demonstrated earlier by the cost difference. However, there is a place for the BP model for the other 10%-20% who are willing to pay for convenience(They're doing a great job with early costumers in Israel).

and here's one of the 10 or so EV charging networks being deployed in the UK today... this one, "Zero:Net", has 122 locations live at a total cost of less than $250K :smile:
Nice! How many of these 122 locations have quick chargers?
 
Can I just say that I think that all this back and forth is ridiculous. What is really necessary for BP to succeed? The ability for it to handle multiple types of cars across different models and manufacturers. That's really it. The advantage of a battery swap cannot be overstated. It makes the EVs as practical and convenient as any ICE. The disadvantage is, it only works for 1 car right now. The advantage of the charging networks, they deploy faster and can work with any EVs. So who will win? If battery standardization can occur, the BP model will be the best. Do I think it will occur, no, because different EVs will want different size and spec batteries and manufacturer consensus won't occur as it undercuts their ability to 1 up the competition. I may be wrong, and battery standardization may occur. I have no problem with that. Batteries may get better to the point where it is unnecessary, I also have no problem with that. The only choices right now, for a 1 EV household with full practicality, is BP or Model S with super charging. Do you want a premium sports sedan, or an economy car? Those are your choices. Arguing about which is cheaper or more practical is pointless because they are completely different segments.
 
What is really necessary for BP to succeed? The ability for it to handle multiple types of cars across different models and manufacturers.

Bingo. The hardest challenge for BP right now is not really the cost of the infrastructure (which is pretty hidden well from the consumer via contract pricing). If they continue to only have one manufacturer onboard, I don't see a big future for them (same with the charging standards, except the difference is you can use adapters, whereas for battery swapping you can't).

I don't think battery swapping is a bad idea per se and that BP represents the only way to implement it (the battery renting Tesla hinted at is another model, it could work for apartment dwellers like car sharing does).
 
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Of course you can do it. You would also need to somehow sell the old battery and finance the new one. Better place just make it seamless for the consumer who doesn't want to be bothered.
All EV manufacturers are planning on second life use for their packs, they will already make the process seamless for the consumer. Another aspect where BP provides no advantage.
 
The market will offer the same thing in the used EV sector. People who don't need a long range EV can buy a nice Model S, or LEAF, at a discount with a reduced capacity pack. Then at some point they can upgrade to a better than new pack if they want, or sell it to someone else who will.
 
The market will offer the same thing in the used EV sector. People who don't need a long range EV can buy a nice Model S, or LEAF, at a discount with a reduced capacity pack. Then at some point they can upgrade to a better than new pack if they want, or sell it to someone else who will.

What's the labor cost of switching on either of those models? I wonder if Tesla and Nissan will assume the responsibility for re-sale.

I wonder who will certify the exact battery pack condition, that's going to be a much more important part of buying a used EV than the number of miles .
 
What's the labor cost of switching on either of those models? I wonder if Tesla and Nissan will assume the responsibility for re-sale.

I wonder who will certify the exact battery pack condition, that's going to be a much more important part of buying a used EV than the number of miles .

Of course a lot of new kind of second hand dealerships will arise, who specialize in battery conditioning, testing, certification, swapping, upgrading, 3rd party battery replacements, custom batteries, hybrid batteries (Tesla patent) etc. etc. It will be exciting after some years!

People will be trading their "85 kW now rated at 79.3 kW with a C-factor of 94% and a discharge curve of .96 to the all new 120 kW hybrid with the superCap 5kW and the upgraded inverter and now my MSP does 0-60 in 3.9 seconds, and the new battery was $35000 and I got $23000 for my old one..." (I'm just making up the lingo here but i'm sure it will sound like that). Will be cool!


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What's the labor cost of switching on either of those models? I wonder if Tesla and Nissan will assume the responsibility for re-sale.

I wonder who will certify the exact battery pack condition, that's going to be a much more important part of buying a used EV than the number of miles .
I don't know about the other cars, but on the Leaf and Roadster it's relatively easy to tell. On the Leaf, you fully charge the car and the number of battery bars you get tells you the capacity left in the pack (you lose bars as your battery degrades). On the Roadster, the ideal miles shown does the same.

A more accurate way would be to pull numbers from the ODB-II /CAN Bus.

Anyways, determining the condition of a battery is a lot more of an exact science than determining the condition of an ICE in a typical car.
 
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The disadvantage is, it only works for 1 car right now. The advantage of the charging networks, they deploy faster and can work with any EVs. So who will win? If battery standardization can occur, the BP model will be the best. Do I think it will occur, no, because different EVs will want different size and spec batteries and manufacturer consensus won't occur as it undercuts their ability to 1 up the competition. I may be wrong, and battery standardization may occur.
I believe there may be a misunderstanding here. The BP model does not require any battery standardization. It only requires the battery to be dropped and loaded from below. A BP station can handle multiple different battery standards and stock many types of batteries.

The current reason BP only works with Renault is just that generally other manufacturers haven't made their pack swappable.
 
Any idea on the cost to wire a spot for 43KW in case it's not available and pre installed(the digging, permitting, all that)? I've heard numbers like 10-20K$ floating around.
It's impossible to give a generic figure... what I can say is that our cheapest installation was £80 ($125) and that could have easily been 3 Phase because it was on the wall of the main power building in a large hotel.