Putting Everything into Perspective

[Larry Chanin]

Hi Todd,

Thanks for this great thread. I agree with others that it helps to put a healthier balance on things.

I believe that when Tesla gets past the initial roll-out, and is more secure in its profitability, that they will revisit and eventually accommodate certain items that have disappointed some folks. For example, I believe that eventually that 3-phase charging will be offered as an option to accommodate overseas buyers. Likewise, when Tesla engineers and lawyers have time to balance technical and warranty considerations, I believe that fast charging on the 40 kWh battery pack will be made available as an option with a reduction in warranty provisions. I think the dubious decision to link satellite radio reception to the panoramic roof option will be the first to be fixed.

In the meantime I plan on focusing my attention on the donut and not the hole.

Larry

 

[dpeilow]

I don't assume anything.

Vain reasons may not come into play in your car purchasing decision. Do other people buy cars for vain reasons? Absolutely.

One of which is that I don't think the majority of the public in the market for a 50 grand car will buy one that is handicapped to 120 real miles. Peer pressure will take care of that.

Of course not. If you use anything plastic you're not free from OPEC. But you're much closer to it. I still mow my lawn, might take occasional road trips in a gas car, take flights on airplanes, etc....

Well either you do "free your scrotum (if you have one) from the grasp of OPEC" or you don't.

 

[Robert.Boston]

Well either you do "free your scrotum (if you have one) from the grasp of OPEC" or you don't.

Disagree. The "all or nothing" approach isn't constructive in addressing our energy future. Every point of reduction in our wasteful energy consumption and use of fossil fuels is a positive advance. Todd's metaphor is perfectly reasonably: if most cars were EVs, oil would be vastly less strategically important, and we wouldn't be spending trillions on wars to sort out Middle East governments.

 

[Larry Chanin]

Disagree. The "all or nothing" approach isn't constructive in addressing our energy future. Every point of reduction in our wasteful energy consumption and use of fossil fuels is a positive advance. Todd's metaphor is perfectly reasonably: if most cars were EVs, oil would be vastly less strategically important, and we wouldn't be spending trillions on wars to sort out Middle East governments.

Hi Robert,

I couldn't agree more.

Petroleum products which we use in producing plastics, pharmaceuticals, etc. are far too valuable to be burning in inefficient automobiles and trucks. This is a vital and finite resource which must be preserved for as long as possible. It may be possible by reducing our dependence on foreign oil used in transportation to eventually become self sufficient in supporting these other strategic uses of petroleum products. In other words, while we may need petroleum products for the foreseeable future, with the judicious use of domestic sources, shale oil, coal gasification, etc., eventually the source of fossil fuels need not be the Middle East.

This will take decades, but we need to start now.

Larry

 

[mscottring]

Actually for the last three quarters the US has exported more oil than it's imported. That does not, in any way, reduce the importance of your point on this issue. I strongly believe that people need to move from ICE vehicles to full electric cars, as soon as possible. The Tesla Model S, and their future vehicles, will lead the way in my opinion.

 

[dhrivnak]

Actually for the last three quarters the US has exported more oil than it's imported. That does not, in any way, reduce the importance of your point on this issue. I strongly believe that people need to move from ICE vehicles to full electric cars, as soon as possible. The Tesla Model S, and their future vehicles, will lead the way in my opinion.

I would love to see such a link to back up that claim. Over 50% of our huge trade deficit is due to imported oil according to EIA.gov. the paper today said the average family spent an record $4200 this year for gas. And I will bet that record will be passed next year

 

[Lloyd]

Actually for the last three quarters the US has exported more oil than it's imported. That does not, in any way, reduce the importance of your point on this issue. I strongly believe that people need to move from ICE vehicles to full electric cars, as soon as possible. The Tesla Model S, and their future vehicles, will lead the way in my opinion.

Um...... I call BS on that Stat. See statistics HERE!

 

[ddenboer]

I like the post -- I'm even thinking of using some of those facts in responses on Twitter.
I didn't reserve my car until late October 2011, so I went into this with a fairly good idea of what I was going to buy and what it was going to cost. The only surprise for me was the tech package, and it's not all that great a surprise. Ultimately, my car is going to cost me $77400 after rebates and before taxes, which is 2600 UNDER what I expected.
The hardest part is waiting... Maybe if my company stock goes up a bit more I can upgrade to signature to kill the wait :wink:

 

[Norbert]

Actually for the last three quarters the US has exported more oil than it's imported. That does not, in any way, reduce the importance of your point on this issue. I strongly believe that people need to move from ICE vehicles to full electric cars, as soon as possible. The Tesla Model S, and their future vehicles, will lead the way in my opinion.

This is surely related to a very misleading recent announcement, and a misinterpreting blog on WSJ opinion, that the US exported more refined petroleum products than it imported.

Those articles missed adding the crucial information that the amount of crude oil the US imports is vastly larger, and makes up a large percentage of the trade deficit (in 2010, about half of it: $252 billion in relation to a trade deficit of $498 billion). This won't easily change.

See this article, but you'll have to read until the end to get the resolution of the puzzle: True Or False? The U.S. Now Imports More Gasoline Than Ever

U.S. Energy Information Administration data indicates that through September, the U.S. exported 750 million barrels of gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and other distillates, but imported just 690 million barrels.

That may give the false impression that the US now is a net exporter. But:

One inconvenient fact has not changed, however: The U.S. remains the world's largest importer of crude oil, at roughly 9 million barrels per day. But the percentage of that oil used for passenger vehicle transport has declined, and likely remains on track to continue doing so, slowly.

Or more officially here: U.S. Total Crude Oil and Products Imports

According to these stats (by eia.gov), in Apr 2011 through Sept 2011, "U.S. Total Crude Oil and Products Imports" were more than 11 million barrels per day.

In 2010, the total import (meaning, per year) was 4,304 million barrels. This an order of magnitude more than the net export of refined products of 60 million barrels (through Sept) as above. (While there seems to be a decline in 2011 of about 5%)

 

[Brian H]

Prezakly. But ... there's no such thing as "extremely unique". Or slightly unique. Or partly unique. Unique is unitary, solitary, and unqualified.
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[Brian H]

What's with the 120 real miles? In mixed driving beta testers got over the advertised 160. If you're just heavy-footing it on the freeway, you'll get 120. In city driving, you'll get over 200. Which is "real"?

 

[Brian H]

I would love to see such a link to back up that claim. Over 50% of our huge trade deficit is due to imported oil according to EIA.gov. the paper today said the average family spent an record $4200 this year for gas. And I will bet that record will be passed next year

Note that most US oil comes from Canada and Mexico. But the market is "fungible", so direct source tracking isn't always relevant.

 

[Robert.Boston]

Note that most US oil comes from Canada and Mexico. But the market is "fungible", so direct source tracking isn't always relevant.

That's not accurate. For the 12 months ending September 2011 (the most recent data available, located here), Canada supplied 23.8% of US crude oil imports, and Mexico, 12.8%, for a total of 36.6%. So, the accurate statement is that the U.S. imports approximately one-third of its crude oil from Canada and Mexico, not "most".

 

[mscottring]

Mendte: Oil Shortage, What Oil Shortage - KPLR

 

[mscottring]

U.S. oil exports on the rise

 

[arondaniel]

Agreed... well said.

I also have confidence that Tesla has reasons, technical and/or otherwise, why the base battery has a limited 0-60 or can't support a particular type of charging. I personally don't feel misled although I can appreciate that different people are sensitive to different features.

For me, being able to upgrade to a larger battery in the future is a big deal. That's still on the table, right? My plan is to get as many options as I possibly can next year and then upgrade the battery 5-7 years down the line. That in itself is a huge innovation... upgradeable power and range that's designed in from the start. To do that with an ICE car you need to do something foolish like bolt on a supercharger or some other contraption that shortens the life of the vehicle.

-Aron

 

[dsm363]

For me, being able to upgrade to a larger battery in the future is a big deal. That's still on the table, right? My plan is to get as many options as I possibly can next year and then upgrade the battery 5-7 years down the line. That in itself is a huge innovation... upgradeable power and range that's designed in from the start. To do that with an ICE car you need to do something foolish like bolt on a supercharger or some other contraption that shortens the life of the vehicle.

-Aron

That appears to still be on the table. There's no technical reason why it couldn't be done I believe. What isn't know is if the hardware to take advantage of the bigger batter pack (in terms of acceleration) will already be there or if the performance will stay the same. Your range would of course increase but possible not the 0-60 times and it likely wouldn't add super charging capability.

 

[nhurst]

Be careful about assuming that upgrading to a larger battery will be possible let alone simple. Don't forget about reasonbly sophisticated battery management and cooling.

 

[nhurst]

Sorry - that should be reasonably, not reasonbly.

 

[Todd Burch]

Be careful about assuming that upgrading to a larger battery will be possible let alone simple. Don't forget about reasonbly sophisticated battery management and cooling.

Although this is beginning to go off-topic, I don't believe the capacity of the battery pack appreciably affects cooling needs. Heat generation is affected by power drawn, not total energy.

So a 600 mile pack would have twice the energy, but half the rate of consumption and have virtually the same heat generation.

Future chemistries might even have less internal resistance, allowing more power draw for a given thermal envelope.