Q2 2013 Results - Expectations and Projection

[Johan]

They were to be delivered in June, but will probably come in July. So I do think this effect Q2, also the Norwegian Krone has weakened 10% to dollars, and With the price fixed, Tesla will loose some Money here.

Someone should investigate this. DonPedro, Johan?

Well, USD-NOK exchange rate is no secret. However, with such a big market in Norway I would think that Tesla has hedged themselves with regards to swings in exchange rates after setting pricing in NOK and after they started taking reservations in NOK (remember in the beginning they were taking EUR). So any effect that weakening of the NOK v.s. USD has will be very much cancelled out (just as the opposite would be cancelled out) through whichever hedging technique they have chosen. Not hedging with regards to currency fluctuations would essentially be speculation bordering on gambling and not something any company would do. USD-EUR hedging is probably also in place, but any swings in exchange rates between these currencies are normally a lot smaller.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

I don't see any effect on Q2 results because the european deliveries haven't been factored into the Q2 guidance.

EDIT: But they will definitely boost Q3 results

I think you are wrong in your assumption. If the rumors are true that production for Europe will only begin in the first or second week of July, this means that Q2 will not see the announced production of 500 cars for which Tesla would not be getting any revenue (they would have been in transit). Instead those 500 production slots can be used for filling US orders, which do produce revenue in Q2. So it will postively affect Q2-results.

 

[Todd Burch]

I hope Tesla's been working some weekend days here and there to solidly beat projections and bank a profit. I think it's extremely important to post another profitable quarter.

If Tesla posts a Q1 profit and then a Q2 loss, the naysayers will go wild again. Really hoping Elon's got a surprise for us here.

 

[FredTMC]

I think you are wrong in your assumption. If the rumors are true that production for Europe will only begin in the first or second week of July, this means that Q2 will not see the announced production of 500 cars for which Tesla would not be getting any revenue (they would have been in transit). Instead those 500 production slots can be used for filling US orders, which do produce revenue in Q2. So it will postively affect Q2-results.

Yep... The main point that we need to clear up is whether or not TM has started production of EU cars or not.

 

[maekuz]

Yep... The main point that we need to clear up is whether or not TM has started production of EU cars or not.

Exactly! At the moment there are contradicting statements here on the TMC forum and on the Tesla forum:

EU finalize and deliveries - Page 39

No Rumors and speculation! I spoke too Tesla yesterday, the cars have not been build. Start production not before July, hopely first or second week.
NO cars will go directly to NO. Others countrys will go to Tilburg (Netherlands) first, because the import in Europe will be parts.
At least 7 weeks for transportation.......

Not happy!

Norwegian deliveries | Forums | Tesla Motors

hugo | June 21, 2013

Got a nice fall from a Tesla rep this week : your Tesla (european model Sig Perf Plus) is being built transport will by train to the east cost and then by boat to Drammen, Norway. Cars should arrive late July and first delivery soon therafter.... Can't wait, plan to fly over from Stavanger to pick it up and drive Home

Its not clear to me if the production of the european orders has started or not.

 

[Norbert]

I hope Tesla's been working some weekend days here and there to solidly beat projections and bank a profit. I think it's extremely important to post another profitable quarter.

If Tesla posts a Q1 profit and then a Q2 loss, the naysayers will go wild again. Really hoping Elon's got a surprise for us here.

I'm kind of thinking that if they post a profit in Q2, it just means they haven't invested enough in new service centers or Superchargers, or not done enough hiring. However I might be biased by waiting for an entry point... but then, that's how I thought in the first place.

 

[NOLA_Mike]

As for the 4,900 sold (or 4,800):

i based that estimate on the VIN#s posted here at TMC. There are scheduled deliveries for late june in the range of the 13,1xx to 13,5xx. I took a conservative approach and choose 13,100 for the calculation: I subtracted the delivery numbers for Q4 2012, Q1 2013, 250 Company Cars and 500 cars not delivered but on their way to europe. Thats how i got 4,800 deliveries for Q2. This seems to be in line with the reported battery shipments of Panasonic.

Just FYI - I took delivery of 13226 (P85+) this Sunday, 23 June. This was home delivery - had I been able to pick up at the nearest Service Center I could've taken delivery on 18 June (it arrived at the SC on 17 June).

Mike

 

[maekuz]

Just FYI - I took delivery of 13226 (P85+) this Sunday, 23 June. This was home delivery - had I been able to pick up at the nearest Service Center I could've taken delivery on 18 June (it arrived at the SC on 17 June).

Mike

First of all: Congratulations and a safe ride at all times!

As for the VIN# it is very encouraging for Q2 results. We may end up on the high side of cars delivered.

 

[Citizen-T]

This was posted on the delivery thread.

Couple weeks ago heard about the availability of some fully loaded P85s available for immediate /quick delivery. No will power, ordered last week. I am told car I picked is coming off Fremont assembly yesterday or today. Ship to NJ today or tomorrow.

Red P85 with tan and carbon fiber.
Pretty much got everything except Performance Plus (can't do 21s, I already have one car I can't take into NYC with 22s(Karma))

VIN given is 15454

I saw the inventory spreadsheet and there were 50+ pretty much fully loaded cars available for quick/immediate delivery. Some were demo cars with 500-2000 miles on them (with the $1 per mile cred offered), others were brand new - just off the line or shortly coming off.

PURCHASED PRECONFIGURED INVENTORY CAR: 6/20
PAID/MVPA: 6/25
TOLD COMING OFF FREMONT LINE: 6/27
DELIVERY TO NJ ETA FROM SALES: 7/8

Looks like VINs in the mid 15000s are being produced today.

 

[FredTMC]

This was posted on the delivery thread.



Looks like VINs in the mid 15000s are being produced today.

Wow. nice data point. Anyone think there are any VIN gaps in production anywhere?

Apparently, EU production was deferred till July (aka Q3). My apologies to EU reservation holders...

bottom line, it looks as if TM may beat "delivery" guidance for Q2.

EPS and GM% per car remain a mystery (as well as ZEV amount). Hopefully better than expected as well. I'm thinking GM% will be better, since all indications seem to be that TM has increased production. As you'll recall, Elon said they wouldn't incr production until the production line efficiencies were resolved...

thoughts?

 

[Citizen-T]

I think if they built and delivered those 500 cars to the US rather than EU than a beat is almost certain. A huge beat. The question is, will the market care given the reason for the beat?

 

[Clprenz]

I think the market will go bonkers, since not only are they not delivering cars they thought they wouldn't, but they are producing roughly about 750-1000 more cars this quarter! FYI I just set up my options for next week, Since I'm betting that they will release a statement like last time!

 

[FredTMC]

I think if they built and delivered those 500 cars to the US rather than EU than a beat is almost certain. A huge beat. The question is, will the market care given the reason for the beat?

Agreed. If TM beats all guidance numbers the stock will gap up.

Anyone think TM will per announce good Q2 results this Monday (7/1)? I think it's likely

 

[Clprenz]

Definitely going to announce it at end of day sunday! This is going to be cool
BUCKLE UP

 

[v12 to 12v]

I think if they built and delivered those 500 cars to the US rather than EU than a beat is almost certain. A huge beat. The question is, will the market care given the reason for the beat?

I have seen VIN numbers in the 14,000 range issued to EU. Unless you have different info, I think that the Signatures are probably already on their way. That is my speculation since they they won't delivering any of the Sigs to North America. Don't all EU cars have VINs that are different from NA models anyway? They have differerent options and features too.

Come to think of it, I would love amber turn signals...

 

[sleepyhead]

I don't think they should pre-announce earnings on July 1st. If you get in a habit of doing that, then you will not be able to stop in future quarters. If you pre-announce this time and then don't do it for Q3 the stock will tank on October 1st.

They pre-announced their first profit after Q1, which was a big event but they should leave it at that.

 

[FredTMC]

I have seen VIN numbers in the 14,000 range issued to EU. Unless you have different info, I think that the Signatures are probably already on their way. That is my speculation since they they won't delivering any of the Sigs to North America. Don't all EU cars have VINs that are different from NA models anyway? They have differernt options and features too.

Come to think of it, I would love amber turn signals...

Yep. So how many EU sigs are there and what's the range of VINS that have been assigned? Any insight would be helpful.

It's my recollection that the VIN isn't assigned until the car is entering into production, so if there are VINs assigned to EU sigs, then some EU cars are being produced now in Q2.

The Takeaway from the posts I've seen is that SOME EU cars have been produced but not the full 500 that was originally given as guidance. Anyone disagree with this assessment?

 

[jeff_adams]

I think if they built and delivered those 500 cars to the US rather than EU than a beat is almost certain. A huge beat. The question is, will the market care given the reason for the beat?

Where did those cars come from? Were they EU customers that backed out? Seems strange they announce a delay of building EU cars until the day after the new quarter begins, but they happen to have a large inventory of extra cars available for immediate NA delivery.

 

[brianstorms]

Two data points I find interesting:

1. Someone elsewhere in the forum mentioned on a recent factory tour a sign in the factory celebrating something like 550 cars produced the previous week, and "today's" goal that day was 100.

2. I heard from a Tesla employee that they already have 2nd shifts working, maybe even 3rd. This is surprising if true, since the extra shifts would theoretically eat into margins, and management has stated their goal is to get margins up to 25% by end of year. If they're still aligned with that goal, but they're working more than one shift, it suggests they've gotten costs down faster and further and sooner than expected.

More support for the case that the Q2 2013 news will exceed analyst expectations.

Time for TSLA to pass 120.

 

[Benz]

Will there be a pre announcement of Q2 2013?
Or will they wait till the date of the Earnings Call?

I think that they will release just a little bit of information.
They will say that the results are better than they had expected, but they will not release any real figures, as they will do that at the Earnings Call.