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Q3 2013 results - projections and expectations

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I am obsessed Tesla Motors, as well as TSLA (Q3 included). It has been impossible to stay abreast with the sheer volume of articles and analyst reports. At first, I tried to convince myself to take an objective approach. I would read both the positive and negative articles, in an effort to discern the reality. An honest effort at due diligence has given me a headache.
The notion that Tesla has produced or delivered 9,000 cars is inane. I am convinced that they have substantively exceeded guidance. True believers (myself included), shorts, and analysts will be left to their own anecdotal evidence.
My wife and daughter both work at the Century City Mall. Once or twice a week I pick one of them up in front of the Tesla Motors store. My anecdotal evidence is floor traffic of the Century City Mall Tesla store. I'm all in on Q3. Place your bets gentlemen.
 
When are they going to release the Q3 report? I thought it was supposed to be on the 6th...

Like many maturing companies with complicated and rapidly changing financials, Tesla reports in the SECOND month after the end of the quarter, and the date is not yet predictable (its phase and day or the week shifts Q to Q). They will announce it about two weeks before the intended date.
 
Let me tell You a word or two about the reception of Tesla and EV´s in Germany. This is an opinion.

Consider it at least rough, if not hostile terrain for the time being.

Germans are a conservative people that are very hard to convince of the good of the other way. Other paths than the most trodden are often viewed with great suspicion. Americans seem to me much more adaptable to „the new“ in general.Germans perceive their cars as their lovechild („Des Deutschen liebstes Kind“ is even a proverb for the car). The german Auto-industry is among the best and biggest in the world. We care about a lot about the condition of our Freeways and a lot of daily talk at work spins around which Autobahn may be jam-free at the end of the day. Sprit-prices are a matter of daily discussion. The industry provides a ton of jobs over here, too. In my opinion there is a lot of fear of change over here. Fear to lose the Nr.1 position, fear to lose money, jobs, and fear being inferior on a field that people regard as Nr.1 priority. There are other reasons that have to do with the "energy-tournaround" politics of the Gov, but that would lead too far here. The incentives the Merkel-Government is giving for EV´s is miserable compared to what other governments do (10 year- tax free).

That being said: Once You convince Germans and overcome this suspicion, You have dropped an anchor in their hearts and minds that can hold for a VERY long time. Longer perhaps than with most other people. And it sits tight. That is what gives me hope for the Gen.III (Model E ?), because to win Germany, Tesla has to do (and is doing) the following:

1.) build an affordable - max. 30.000 € - car (Germany may be rich, Germans are not. The middle class are aching under the high cost pressure from every corner)
2.) The car has most advantages of the Model S but range must be even better. People here want to blast over the Autobahn driving 140-160+ km/h (87-100+ mph), it is their usual habit :)
3.) Make Germans realize that they can drive for free through the Supercharger System from Munich to Hamburg and to their holiday destinations
4.) Convince them that Tesla cars are cleaner than ICE´s and that battery technology is contemporary – It sounds strange on this forum but it is a major argument of the many many critics I read on the forums throughout the media landscape over here

You might say that Tesla already is doing these things but that is exactly my point. It takes a looong time to kick in here. I am convinced this will change when germans SEE the Model S, it will grow with the superchargers and the Model X and become an Avalanche in about 5 years, if Tesla does the Gen III right. If Tesla manages to make the Gen III the new „Volkswagen“, they will have a stable consistent place in the Auto-Heart of the german consumers. I have no doubt this will happen, if Tesla holds course.

So I wouldn`t say germans are not pleased with Tesla, but there is a LOT of work to convincing to do here. Once it´s done, a big steady flow of revenue will be coming from Germany.

- - - Updated - - -

Sorry. I had this thread formatted nicely but my browser or whatever does not allow me to edit this properly.
I will bring it in shape once I come home.:mad:

I think this largely describes the American Midwest and American South.

Most people know the American Midwest produces lots of cars but.....

Tennessee has Nissan and Volkswagen.

Kentucky has GM's Bowling Green and Toyota in Georgetown.

South Carolina has BMW.

Alabama has Hyundai,Honda and Mercedes Benz.

Texas has GM's SUV plant in Arlington and Toyota in San Antonio.

Mississippi has Nissan and Toyota.

Georgia has Kia.

In the American South buying local can mean buying a Ford or GM SUV. Or a German or Asian CUV.
 
I changed my mind and you can find the Model S registrations attached:View attachment 131012_Tesla_Fundamentals.xlsx

Please note that the numbers are far from perfect and i rather see it as a method to counter-check the VIN-based approach. Any feedback and input from all of you is highly appreciated, whether its updated numbers or countries i forgot or other reasons why the number might be to high or to low. I am pondering in particular if there could be reasons why a registration might not be a delivery in Tesla Motors books (apart from being a lease i mean).

In my opinion it looks like a real blow-out quarter even though its not that ridiculous high number from that troubling value walk article. Guidance is "slightly over 5,000 cars delivered" and i think we are looking at something like a 30% beat of that guidance.

Last but not least thank you all for your PMs and postings. I hope this helps.
 
I changed my mind and you can find the Model S registrations attached:View attachment 32959

Please note that the numbers are far from perfect and i rather see it as a method to counter-check the VIN-based approach. Any feedback and input from all of you is highly appreciated, whether its updated numbers or countries i forgot or other reasons why the number might be to high or to low. I am pondering in particular if there could be reasons why a registration might not be a delivery in Tesla Motors books (apart from being a lease i mean).

In my opinion it looks like a real blow-out quarter even though its not that ridiculous high number from that troubling value walk article. Guidance is "slightly over 5,000 cars delivered" and i think we are looking at something like a 30% beat of that guidance.

Last but not least thank you all for your PMs and postings. I hope this helps.

Thanks. Your figure correlates well with Craig's projections based on his VIN number collection, graphing and regression analysis. My guestimation was 6,500 so I like your numbers as it supports mine :wink:
 
I changed my mind and you can find the Model S registrations attached:View attachment 32959

Please note that the numbers are far from perfect and i rather see it as a method to counter-check the VIN-based approach. Any feedback and input from all of you is highly appreciated, whether its updated numbers or countries i forgot or other reasons why the number might be to high or to low. I am pondering in particular if there could be reasons why a registration might not be a delivery in Tesla Motors books (apart from being a lease i mean).

In my opinion it looks like a real blow-out quarter even though its not that ridiculous high number from that troubling value walk article. Guidance is "slightly over 5,000 cars delivered" and i think we are looking at something like a 30% beat of that guidance.

Last but not least thank you all for your PMs and postings. I hope this helps.
Thank you for the info, it was very reliable last quarter. I would like to know your take on the Average Sales Price for the Model S in the most recent quarter(Q3). I would assume just about all of the deliveries overseas would be of the P85+ or P85s version because those are the cars that are built first. I will be looking through the Q2 report to see if they have any estimations that would be regarding the mix of the different models and check back with my findings.
 
Thank you for the info, it was very reliable last quarter. I would like to know your take on the Average Sales Price for the Model S in the most recent quarter(Q3). I would assume just about all of the deliveries overseas would be of the P85+ or P85s version because those are the cars that are built first. I will be looking through the Q2 report to see if they have any estimations that would be regarding the mix of the different models and check back with my findings.
Most of European delivers would be SigS, 85P and 85P+
 
I changed my mind and you can find the Model S registrations attached:View attachment 32959

Please note that the numbers are far from perfect and i rather see it as a method to counter-check the VIN-based approach. Any feedback and input from all of you is highly appreciated, whether its updated numbers or countries i forgot or other reasons why the number might be to high or to low. I am pondering in particular if there could be reasons why a registration might not be a delivery in Tesla Motors books (apart from being a lease i mean).

In my opinion it looks like a real blow-out quarter even though its not that ridiculous high number from that troubling value walk article. Guidance is "slightly over 5,000 cars delivered" and i think we are looking at something like a 30% beat of that guidance.

Last but not least thank you all for your PMs and postings. I hope this helps.

Thanks for sharing! Seeing more methodologies used to make estimates never hurts.

Your data is heavily reliant on the USA projections. The Detroit Free Press link is using autodata estimates which have not been very reliable in the past, and I cannot access the autoline report (paid content) so I'm curious where that data comes from. Although I think this has produced a reasonable estimate, I'm still going to rely more on the VIN analysis when placing my Q3 bets. However this type of modeling will become more important in the future as sales are spread more evenly across even more countries.
 
Thanks for sharing! Seeing more methodologies used to make estimates never hurts.

Your data is heavily reliant on the USA projections. The Detroit Free Press link is using autodata estimates which have not been very reliable in the past, and I cannot access the autoline report (paid content) so I'm curious where that data comes from. Although I think this has produced a reasonable estimate, I'm still going to rely more on the VIN analysis when placing my Q3 bets. However this type of modeling will become more important in the future as sales are spread more evenly across even more countries.

As for the US data: July numbers are a autodata estimates but the numbers for august and september seem to be actual registration data. The autoline numbers can be found via the links i included in the excel sheet. The numbers are reported in their video news and they even provide a transcript. Autoline quotes ward automotive as source who claim to use registration data.

I think the results of the registration data match quite well with the several VIN-based estimates posted here on the board.

I for one will go in with 6500 Model S deliveries for Q3 results which is a tremendous beat by way over 1,000 cars. I think the Wallstreet whisper number might be around 5,800 so we should be good after the Q3 call.
 
Wow, it's getting more and more likely that the Model S deliveries in Q3 2013 are way above 6,000 (what I was hoping for), and if it really appears to be around 6,500 than that would be really awesome. I am already looking forward to the Q3 2013 Earnings Conference Call of next month.
 
The main problem meme with over optimism is the notion that the VIN numbers are sequential and if current delivery VINs are X it strongly implies that deliveries for the quarter are really X minus 2nd quarter totals. Can anyone explain what's really known about VIN numbers?
I think getting the simple facts better circulated would help counter expectations that production has doubled, which of course could lead to people finding otherwise spectacular 3rd quarter production (like 6500) disappointing.
 
As for the US data: July numbers are a autodata estimates but the numbers for august and september seem to be actual registration data. The autoline numbers can be found via the links i included in the excel sheet. The numbers are reported in their video news and they even provide a transcript. Autoline quotes ward automotive as source who claim to use registration data.

I think the results of the registration data match quite well with the several VIN-based estimates posted here on the board.

As you said, the autoline site links to this wards auto page which is the paid content I was referring to. I did not see any sources listed though. Where did you see that they use registration data for these? Autodata estimated 1950 for August so we at least know the numbers are not coming from there.
 
The main problem meme with over optimism is the notion that the VIN numbers are sequential and if current delivery VINs are X it strongly implies that deliveries for the quarter are really X minus 2nd quarter totals. Can anyone explain what's really known about VIN numbers?
I think getting the simple facts better circulated would help counter expectations that production has doubled, which of course could lead to people finding otherwise spectacular 3rd quarter production (like 6500) disappointing.

If you go to the teslamotors forums, the vin forum they also have approximated gaps. They have outlined the larger gaps. And they could mean that vins were skipped or just that the people that got assigned those vins don't spend time in any forums. Which is going to be more likely as we transition out of the early adopters phase.
 
The main problem meme with over optimism is the notion that the VIN numbers are sequential and if current delivery VINs are X it strongly implies that deliveries for the quarter are really X minus 2nd quarter totals. Can anyone explain what's really known about VIN numbers?
I think getting the simple facts better circulated would help counter expectations that production has doubled, which of course could lead to people finding otherwise spectacular 3rd quarter production (like 6500) disappointing.

I am one that believes that the delivery amount will be close to 6,500 this quarter. However, I do agree that I could be wrong. Since TM does not reveal delivery figures weekly/monthly then everyone is left to speculate on the actual numbers. My prediction is based on some postings about actual European deliveries on this forum and trying to use VINs assigned to speculate on US delivery numbers. I could be way off and I doubt anyone is listening to one person's questimation to invest their money. Just one person's 2 cents/opinion. Everyone has to do their own due diligence.
 
I did a gap analysis on the VIN data I've been collecting and see no reason to believe that Tesla has methodically skipped a large number of VINs recently, and certainly not regularly. The gaps (spaces between reported VINs) are distributed approximately geometrically, which is what you'd expect if they were random. If there was a purposive big gap, it would've showed up quite readily.

Now, it's possible that Tesla has skipped a SMALL number (e.g., <100) VINs once...I don't think my dataset is large enough to detect something that small and limited to a single instance. But, even if that has happened, it's not going to affect VIN assignment rate estimates much at all...the rest of the user-submitted data would drown it out (technically speaking ;-) ).

I don't have enough VIN assignment data from Q2 to use Q2 production/delivery figures as a guide for converting "VINs assigned" to "cars delivered." But, once we get Q3 data, I'll be in a much better position for guesstimating Q4 numbers. If I'm a masochist, I'll add a "cars delivered" estimator to my chart. [gets the aspirin]
 
I did a gap analysis on the VIN data I've been collecting and see no reason to believe that Tesla has methodically skipped a large number of VINs recently, and certainly not regularly. The gaps (spaces between reported VINs) are distributed approximately geometrically, which is what you'd expect if they were random. If there was a purposive big gap, it would've showed up quite readily.

Now, it's possible that Tesla has skipped a SMALL number (e.g., <100) VINs once...I don't think my dataset is large enough to detect something that small and limited to a single instance. But, even if that has happened, it's not going to affect VIN assignment rate estimates much at all...the rest of the user-submitted data would drown it out (technically speaking ;-) ).

I don't have enough VIN assignment data from Q2 to use Q2 production/delivery figures as a guide for converting "VINs assigned" to "cars delivered." But, once we get Q3 data, I'll be in a much better position for guesstimating Q4 numbers. If I'm a masochist, I'll add a "cars delivered" estimator to my chart. [gets the aspirin]

Craig...You are the MAN :biggrin: I will be sending a shipment of enteric coated aspirin to Ohio along with a pair of worn, but still useable Michelin Pilot tires! I will see if Lola will donate a worn pair as well!

But in all seriousness...Thanks for all your efforts. Al
 
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