plaeuschler
Member
I would like to know if there will be developer conferences on a regular basis, once the App Store is out.
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I think that once Elon Musk will start talking about the new production line, then he just might reveal a few interesting details about it. We just need somebody to ask the question.
Qs to ask:
Why isn't Tesla contemplating building the batteries themselves in the gigafactory, why do they need to partner with Panasonic?
Does Elon think we will see new silicon or silicon hybrid anodes in the batteries the gigafactory produces?
When will we see a Model X production vehicle?
Does the Model X production have more cargo space than what we've seen in the prototype versions?
Why isn't Tesla contemplating building the batteries themselves in the gigafactory, why do they need to partner with Panasonic?
Does Elon think we will see new silicon or silicon hybrid anodes in the batteries the gigafactory produces?
When will we see a Model X production vehicle?
Does the Model X production have more cargo space than what we've seen in the prototype versions?
RobStark
Well-Known Member
I am almost certain they have contemplated it but determined it cheaper to outsource that function because .....
It would require a much larger investment, it does not have the Panasonic patents, it would need to acquire comparable technology and it would have to learn battery cell manufacture on the fly.
Learning mass market automotive design, manufacture, marketing and distribution has filled Tesla's plate.
Then there is that whole global supercharger network thing.
And the Tesla energy storage "side business."
chickensevil
Active Member
This has been basically answered before, as they have talked about the factory itself and the multiple partners they will be teaming up with. Panasonic is not the only one. The reason is because Tesla does not have the expertise to build a battery in as high of quality and at the cheap price they are already getting them for by themselves.
the plan is to get one anode supplier, one cathode supplier, one separator supplier, one cell builder (Panasonic), and them then putting up for the pack assembly. Even Panasonic does not do or have the expertise to manufacture their own anode and cathode, they are built by someone else and Panasonic just puts the batteries together.
And this is not just a simple, well, let's just build our own battery, who needs anyone else kind of situation. There is heavy R&D into each part of the battery, hence why there is like 5 different Cathodes floating around out there that makes up all the different types of Li-ion batteries.
The benefit here is that it is all under one roof.
chickensevil
Active Member
For example, asking Tesla to just build their own parts of the battery is like asking them to make their own wiper blades, and their own windshields, and their own seats... If they really thought there was a cost benefit to be had in that area, and they had the capital to spend on the R&D they probably would do it. But learning how to build those parts takes time... Time they don't have, and time they really don't need in order to hit the 30% they are striving for.
hope this helps clear up why they are teaming with other companies on this!
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The last update on this front was that they could hit with current technology a 150kW charge rate safely on the 85 kW battery. That is almost a 2C charge rate. Anything faster would require either a larger battery or a chemistry that would work for a faster charge than 2C.
hope this helps clear up why they are teaming with other companies on this!
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The last update on this front was that they could hit with current technology a 150kW charge rate safely on the 85 kW battery. That is almost a 2C charge rate. Anything faster would require either a larger battery or a chemistry that would work for a faster charge than 2C.
My guess is that their current capacity is defined by the capacity of their plant's bottle neck.
Manufacturing plants are usually designed around the most expensive piece of gear, all downstream and upstream processes are usually at a higher capacity. Such design provides max utilization of the expensive bottleneck.
It is highly likely that many processes in Tesla manufacturing are not matching in capacity as that would be uneconomical for the plant to design it that way. If they were matching, then small hickup in cheap process can cause delay along all processes, causing less than 100% utilization of the most expensive bottleneck. So bottleneck must be humming 100% of the time, other cheaper processes can be idle waiting for the bottleneck.
I can only guess what part of the Fremont plant is a bottleneck and what would be its bottleneck capacity. It may be their press. If that is the case, current press capacity determines the plant capacity. Few posters pointed out that adding shift may not increase capacity and that is very likely imo.
The way to increase capacity is then to either upgrade bottleneck (say press) to run faster, if possible, or to add another equivalent (or larger) press, thus doubling the capacity. Such upgrade often moves a bottleneck to other plant areas, say paint shop (wild guess for demo purpose), and that may need upgrade.
Here's a couple shot in the dark questions I have:
1)Have you had any serious discussions with the Chinese govt or Chinese govt. run/owned company on a possible joint venture or capital infusion to grow much more aggressively in China?
2)has Tesla had any further discussions this year with Google, Apple, or IBM?
I am curious about Stationary Storage. I know that it's in partnership with sister company Solarcity, but would like to know:
- Margin split w/ solarcity, revenue recognition method, does Tesla just sell them with flat 20-30% margin to Solarcity? or what?
- Interest from customer. Other than Tesla factory and supercharger, have the stationary storage got interest from other companies or end customer/residential?
- Margin split w/ solarcity, revenue recognition method, does Tesla just sell them with flat 20-30% margin to Solarcity? or what?
- Interest from customer. Other than Tesla factory and supercharger, have the stationary storage got interest from other companies or end customer/residential?
EarlyAdopter
Active Member
It's not the presses. When I toured the factory back in February at 3:00 in the afternoon I asked our tour guide why the presses and cutters weren't running. "Because we only need to run them for a little while each morning to make an entire day's worth of panels."
The presses that Tesla already has in place at Fremont are sized for making parts for 500,000 cars a year.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
I don't want to start a unique thread for this but.
To our Norwegian posters what does bilkyndige mean?
To our Norwegian posters what does bilkyndige mean?
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Management has stated and restated that the limiting factor is battery cell supplies from Panasonic.
As of a year ago the sections in the production line that needed more time were the paint booth and "finishing area." I have not read anything different since.
The paint booth was taking more time than initially planned by the manufacturing engineers because of Elon's insistence on ultra high finishes. The way I remember reading this is that they required about 20% or so more over time to match the production rate of the rest of the line.
Maybe practice has improved efficiency or maybe not. Two shifts may not double theoretical capacity. Maybe some areas need more overtime than others. But I have not read anything that says once section of the production line is humming all day at 100% capacity and production can't be increased without more capital expenditure.
MartinAustin
Active Member
1) will there be an AWD version of the Model S after the Model X has been released?
2) if so, will existing cars be upgradeable at a reasonable price or will it pretty much be prohibitive?
3) The Pack-Swap demo was a year ago. Is Tesla distancing itself from the idea, or has it simply been so low priority so far that there has been no news or progress - but we'll definitely see implementation some day?
2) if so, will existing cars be upgradeable at a reasonable price or will it pretty much be prohibitive?
3) The Pack-Swap demo was a year ago. Is Tesla distancing itself from the idea, or has it simply been so low priority so far that there has been no news or progress - but we'll definitely see implementation some day?
That is good news and makes sense, to have a large press. I watched megafactory video to try and decipher what could be a bottleneck in Fremont.
Few processes stand out- body assembly, paint shop and final assembly. Car spends 1.5 days in paintshop, most likely going through the oven. If the oven size is a limiting factor, then some modular growth is likely.
To me it is not that relevant what the current plant capacity is and how Tesla engineers planned to grow the capacity.
I do not see risks in executing increased capacity up to a max press capacity. Once that is reached, Tesla will replicate the plant. Imo that is relatively easy to do and there is low risk in execution.
In my view, all business risks due to growth are linked to increased number of employees, not to the engineering execution. Most problems are usually caused by people, not by robots. There are some inherent conflicts of interest between employer and employees. These conflicts need to be managed, often on a daily basis and that can be tiring. It is very difficult to manage more and more employees and to have effective and motivated workforce on a large scale. I do not have a view yet what sort of employer is Tesla. DaveT mentioned that Google is poaching Tesla engineers, that is a worry.
erha
Member
chickensevil
Active Member
I just don't see a need to ask max capacity when it has been stated quite a few times already that it would be 500k and that is what they are planning for is 500k. This is also reinforced given that all battery assembly and production will be moved to the new factory, and guess what it's yearly output rate is? 500k... They have also said before that the battery factory would only have capacity to fill out Fremont and nothing more... as in... they will need more than one battery factory and more than one car factory in order to go over 500k. Where is the confusion in capacity?
As for the timing... According to the documents they gave on the factory, they are shooting for full capacity by 2020. So I would say that until you hear word otherwise that they are building a new factory (either Battery or Car) that the ramp up to 500k will peak in 2020.
This has been pretty clearly outlined by numerous sources and restated a few times by some of the same sources.
Edit: I am not one of the talented Tea Leaf readers here on the forums, I defer that to other people, so there is no speculation involved in this post... this is purely what has already been stated by the company... So the REAL question would be: Do you see yourself adding another Car Factory and Battery Factory into the mix before 2020, and are you planning to produce MORE THAN 500k cars by 2020?
Because it is not really a question of if they are going to hit 500k with Fremont, it is a question of if they are going to hit more than that.
As for the timing... According to the documents they gave on the factory, they are shooting for full capacity by 2020. So I would say that until you hear word otherwise that they are building a new factory (either Battery or Car) that the ramp up to 500k will peak in 2020.
This has been pretty clearly outlined by numerous sources and restated a few times by some of the same sources.
Edit: I am not one of the talented Tea Leaf readers here on the forums, I defer that to other people, so there is no speculation involved in this post... this is purely what has already been stated by the company... So the REAL question would be: Do you see yourself adding another Car Factory and Battery Factory into the mix before 2020, and are you planning to produce MORE THAN 500k cars by 2020?
Because it is not really a question of if they are going to hit 500k with Fremont, it is a question of if they are going to hit more than that.
500k was the capacity of the NUMMI plant in the Toyota/GM days and Tesla has never stated how many cars they are going to be able to build in the factory at max capacity.
I think it is the most important question to ask, because if they will only be able to do 200k/year, then that is going to be a huge problem once they have to start raising funds to build out a new factory. On the other hand, if they are able to squeeze out more capacity via automation and maybe running the plant 24 hours a day, 5 days a week and do 800k+ cars per year then it would be a huge boost.
This 500k numbers is not official and nobody ever said that will be the capacity for Tesla.
I honestly can't think of a more important question that I would like answered (outside of the obvious questions that they can't answer).
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