Realistic UK model 3 delivery expectations?

[Tanflado]

Anyone out there with any ideas when us Brits will realistically see the first Model 3 deliveries? I ordered mine April 1st on line.
My lease car goes back March 2018 and I'm not overly confident Tesla will have my car ready in time to accomadate this.
Would 2019 be a more realistic target??

Cheers Tanfaldo

 

[Model 3]

I expect the first European cars to be produced early 2018 with deliveries in late February or March. But it is hard to say when they will have the LHD cars ready. I would expect maybe late 2018? Or 2019...

But on the other hand, given that it isn't any instrument cluster behind the wheel, it may be easier to convert it to LHD, and it may be ready earlier?

 

[Dan43]

Model X deliveries yet to hit UK it seems and Model S were quite a way behind US deliveries. Rough maths would add 1 year from time a Model 3 lands with its first US customers. EU LHD will naturally get ahead than RHD for UK.

 

[JeffK]

I'm going to go ahead and guess mid to late 2018 as well assuming no delays. If production can ramp up a quickly as hoped for then they'd be able to crank through all the US pre-orders before early 2018. It makes sense to start producing batches for outside the US after that.

 

[Jayc]

Elon has stated clearly that those around the world will have some advantage due to being in different regions so I expect overseas preorders to start before end of all US pre orders. It is only logical that US then LHD gets priority but absolutely no sense in delaying overseas deliveries till all US is done with.

 

[alseTrick]

I would expect it later rather than sooner. I don't think anyone saying 2018 is being honest. US, Canada, International right hand drive countries, then left hand drive countries like the UK. Considering there are likely 250,000 US reservations alone - more than Tesla has produced in its entire history up to this point? - a 2018 delivery date sounds impossible. I think some US reservation holders won't even get vehicles until late 2018 as it is, and if there are delays it won't be until 2019.

 

[JeffK]

Considering there are likely 250,000 US reservations alone

Full production rate will be over 33000 Model 3s per month. If Elon's estimate that they might get 100k to 200k out before the end of 2017 holds true then if we go on the low side and estimate 100k in 2017 then all the rest of the (current) US preorders would be completed during the first half of 2018. This would maximize the US tax credit as Elon stated they would try to do.

 

[nexsuperne101]

8th August 2018 will be when my Tesla gets delivered.

 

[Jayc]

I like your optimism @nexsuperne101

 

[nexsuperne101]

I didn't say which Tesla. I will be 43 on that date, hence the significance for me. It will hopefully be the 3, but if it isn't looking hopeful, then I will have an S instead

 

[Model 3]

I will be 43 on that date, hence the significance for me.

Ok, then that date will be exactly one year to late. You will have to get it on your 42 birthday, and name the car with your age.

 

[sparkypete]

Has anyone got any more info on RHD delivery wait times?

It looks like it was 2 years after the US launch that first deliveries of Model S hit the UK. Elon himself popped over for those.

It took just over a year for Model X to hit the UK after first deliveries in the US.

I'm hoping that with the volumes required for Model 3 that RHD versions of components have been planned in from the start as it would be very expensive to have to change tooling to cope retrospectively. It seems to me the window could be anything from Spring 2018 to Spring 2019 depending on US order volumes and production delays.

 

[Dan43]

Other are speculating but considered response seem to be Q1-Q2 2019.

Goldman Sachs has downgraded Tesla stock and is suggesting M3 will be late in the US, I can't see customer LHD versions before December 2017, mass roll out Summer 2018 for US LHD, then EU LHD late 2018 and RHD markets early 2019.

Just a guess but feels about right.

 

[JeffK]

Goldman Sachs has downgraded Tesla stock and is suggesting M3 will be late in the US

Keep in mind they have no evidence to back up their claims

 

[Dan43]

Keep in mind they have no evidence to back up their claims

Agreed but the stock dropped by $12 today down to $244 so there are wobbles in the markets, may be temporary but the 3, it seems, really needs to deliver. Isn't there a new funding round coming up also?

 

[JeffK]

Isn't there a new funding round coming up also?

In all likelihood, but it isn't official yet.

 

[googlepeakoil]

In all likelihood, but it isn't official yet.

they have $3bn in cash or money in bank. So might not need to do it for a while.

I'm in the UK with a reservation from morning of day 2. Curious if they'll proiritise 4wd, ludicrous model 3's costing £100k before mine - when maybe I only want a medium range, medium speed version, without too many other expensive gimmicks (self driving stuff).

 

[Jayc]

As far as I know, we don't have anything official to suggest that highly optioned Model 3s will be done first even though that was the case with MS and MX. Even if they did, I don't imagine it will make much of a difference to early RHD orders. Much more important is whether RHD production starts in 2018, 2019, 2020 or 2021.

 

[JeffK]

they have $3bn in cash or money in bank. So might not need to do it for a while.

I'm in the UK with a reservation from morning of day 2. Curious if they'll proiritise 4wd, ludicrous model 3's costing £100k before mine - when maybe I only want a medium range, medium speed version, without too many other expensive gimmicks (self driving stuff).

It depends on a number of factors... most importantly how much they currently owe and how much they are going to spend between now and then (2 - 2.5 billion capex). If Model 3 is delayed, then suppliers who have already supplied parts might want to get paid. If Model S/X sales were to tank, etc. In order to reduce risk, they might need to have extra cash on hand.

This is potentially the real reason why the last reveal isn't until the beginning of Q3. It's in Tesla's best interest to raise capital, but it leads to an "I told you so" moment from the naysayers (bears).

 

[DarthPierce]

Not until they build the RHD Gigafactory (#5)