Redesign/4680 "Holdout Buyers" Discussion

[Gsxr150]

Hey guys...just a conversation topic for the guys/gals who are holding out for the next major updates (4680/colors/headlights, etc).

I'm a happy owner of an M3P, and my wife just picked up an LR Y. Digging the Y, and thinking about getting one for myself. However, given the recent "news", I'm probably going to hold out for the next changes (whenever those arrive).

Who else is holding out for 4680's/Paint/New Headlights/Etc?

What's your situation? Why are you waiting? What get's you excited about the potential updates on the horizon? Just curious about your thoughts and mindset!

 

[Ogre]

Hey guys...just a conversation topic for the guys/gals who are holding out for the next major updates (4680/colors/headlights, etc).

I'm a happy owner of an M3P, and my wife just picked up an LR Y. Digging the Y, and thinking about getting one for myself. However, given the recent "news", I'm probably going to hold out for the next changes (whenever those arrive).

Who else is holding out for 4680's/Paint/New Headlights/Etc?

What's your situation? Why are you waiting? What get's you excited about the potential updates on the horizon? Just curious about your thoughts and mindset!

How will you know when to pull the trigger or which car you will get?

Don’t know if Texas is going to have the paint shop like the Berlin one, that would be an obvious tell, but aside from that, how do you even know?

It’s likely Tesla is going to slip the new models out with nearly identical specs as the previous. Once you know for certain you are getting the “new hotness” then you have a 6-9 month wait to actually get it.

 

[ddhir]

Hey guys...just a conversation topic for the guys/gals who are holding out for the next major updates (4680/colors/headlights, etc).

I'm a happy owner of an M3P, and my wife just picked up an LR Y. Digging the Y, and thinking about getting one for myself. However, given the recent "news", I'm probably going to hold out for the next changes (whenever those arrive).

Who else is holding out for 4680's/Paint/New Headlights/Etc?

What's your situation? Why are you waiting? What get's you excited about the potential updates on the horizon? Just curious about your thoughts and mindset!

I was holding out for 4680s and finally ordered a Model Y (LR) on 10/28 as it showed delivery in June 2022. Spoke with the Tesla rep and she felt confident about the vehicle coming with 4680s in my delivery timeline. The timeline works for me....and if the rumors prove out regarding new headlights and other improvements in H1 2022, then that would be awesome!

 

[LionelHutz]

When I was shopping in October 2020, people were asking those same questions. I didn't wait, have now had my car for almost a year, and those improvements still aren't out. Just sayin'.

 

[brandon8387]

Y’all gonna be waiting forever. The line is just getting longer and price is going up. Lease it now and reup in 3 years
It’s always gonna be something coming.

 

[alexgr]

I was holding out for 4680s and finally ordered a Model Y (LR) on 10/28 as it showed delivery in June 2022. Spoke with the Tesla rep and she felt confident about the vehicle coming with 4680s in my delivery timeline. The timeline works for me....and if the rumors prove out regarding new headlights and other improvements in H1 2022, then that would be awesome!

One well established thing about Tesla reps ... they have no clue. Please just don't believe them. I ordered on 10/29, and it gives the expected delivery now in March. I told the rep that if it comes early (and without front cast and 4680 ) then I will delay the order. My "theory" is that if there is a 8k or 10k next year there will be a horde of people ordering model Y within a week and then (1) the price will go up again and (2) the line may actually extend into 2023. But in 2023 I may want a tax credit for another car (CT). We shall see.

 

[TSLY]

Did you get the Tesla watch yet? It's the only way to read Tesla-Time.

 

[Clark_Kent]

I didn't wait and I wouldn't wait. I've already ordered a second Y. The single casting, 4680 cells, significant increases to range, and other upgrades have been discussed for years and they're still not here.

Life is too short to wait for what may or may not happen. Enjoy the car now while you can.

 

[gtae07]

I'm not yet in the financial position I want to be in--want to pay off my wife's van first and get a good down payment together, and having to pay cash for a new roof back in September put a dent in that plan.

So at this point I might as well just wait a while. Maybe by the time I'm ready to order (late 2022?) 4680s will be available, Cybertruck might be in production, F150E will be in customer hands, and perhaps Ford might even announce an electric Maverick or Ranger.

 

[Prax]

I'm just interested in the headlights because of the possibility of a software update to make them function like Europe. The 4680 doesn't do anything for me, 300+ miles of range is more than fine for my driving needs. The door panels would be nice, but eh.

 

[Corndart]

I didn't wait and I wouldn't wait. I've already ordered a second Y. The single casting, 4680 cells, significant increases to range, and other upgrades have been discussed for years and they're still not here.

Life is too short to wait for what may or may not happen. Enjoy the car now while you can.

Holding out for Tesla manufacturing and efficiency gains seems like an odd strategy IMO. 4680 is largely beneficial on the manufacturing side (cheaper, denser, less dirty) with some side benefits to the user such as less concern over supercharging to 100% and less thermal management issues. Single casting will arguably make the Y more rigid, which IMO it doesn't really need, and again it lowers Tesla's cost and allows them to produce faster. There may be some repairability detriments as well with a single casting approach but someone smarter than me would need to weigh in, just hypothesizing (can't say swap out rear casting after an accident , instead would need the whole thing ).

I may have missed it but has Elon/Tesla said anything about 4680 being used to boost vehicle range? If so would love to see the details. Nearly everything I've found is focused on how it benefits Tesla on the production side, with the aforementioned "charge to 100% always without any concern to battery deterioration/life" and thermal management being less of a concern, which should be solved in the Y's octovalve anyhow.

 

[Gem!ni]

I have a MYP that I ordered end of October that I'm delaying delivery till April or May 2022.

By then, my hope is that the 4680's and other upgrades are in the 2022 cars, but if not, I'll take delivery either way around that timeframe of May - June 2022. The wait doesn't bother me since I at least have summer to enjoy the car before having to switch out the summer tires to all seasons.

Since I'm in the Chicagoland area in Illinois, I'm hoping of at least getting a car from Giga Austin instead of Fremont.

 

[Level 1]

I'm just interested in the headlights because of the possibility of a software update to make them function like Europe. The 4680 doesn't do anything for me, 300+ miles of range is more than fine for my driving needs. The door panels would be nice, but eh.

Just goes to show how different opinions are on these. We actually liked the older (current) white door panels... and from the comparison pictures we've seen, it looks like the non-matrix headlights have a much more pleasant beam pattern (optimized for the North-American regulations, with more side coverage / less harsh cutoffs), so I'm happy we got those too.

 

[Gsxr150]

How will you know when to pull the trigger or which car you will get?

Don’t know if Texas is going to have the paint shop like the Berlin one, that would be an obvious tell, but aside from that, how do you even know?

It’s likely Tesla is going to slip the new models out with nearly identical specs as the previous. Once you know for certain you are getting the “new hotness” then you have a 6-9 month wait to actually get it.

Worse case, it costs me $250 bucks once or twice a year to assure I have a car in line!

 

[Gsxr150]

Y’all gonna be waiting forever. The line is just getting longer and price is going up. Lease it now and reup in 3 years
It’s always gonna be something coming.

Who would lease a Tesla today? That's literally throwing away money! 3's and Y's hold their value so well...even pre-covid.

 

[Level 1]

Holding out for Tesla manufacturing and efficiency gains seems like an odd strategy IMO. 4680 is largely beneficial on the manufacturing side (cheaper, denser, less dirty) with some side benefits to the user such as less concern over supercharging to 100% and less thermal management issues. Single casting will arguably make the Y more rigid, which IMO it doesn't really need, and again it lowers Tesla's cost and allows them to produce faster. There may be some repairability detriments as well with a single casting approach but someone smarter than me would need to weigh in, just hypothesizing (can't say swap out rear casting after an accident , instead would need the whole thing ).

I may have missed it but has Elon/Tesla said anything about 4680 being used to boost vehicle range? If so would love to see the details. Nearly everything I've found is focused on how it benefits Tesla on the production side, with the aforementioned "charge to 100% always without any concern to battery deterioration/life" and thermal management being less of a concern, which should be solved in the Y's octovalve anyhow.

There are a bunch of different ways this could go.
* Austin could bring new paint colors
* The 4680s could bring more range
* The 4680s could bring the same range at lower weight (so better overall efficiency)
* The front casting could increase frunk capacity or provision for some other feature up there (remember, the rear casting change increased the max vehicle payload by +331 lbs)

The worst that could happen are that the specs all stay pretty much the same. (Tesla is unlikely to reduce the range.)

Combine the potential tax credit and potential vehicle improvements, it's very understandable to want to wait.
And you can't really go wrong picking one up now (current specs) either.

 

[Level 1]

Who would lease a Tesla today? That's literally throwing away money! 3's and Y's hold their value so well...even pre-covid.

Especially with the lease buyout restrictions!

 

[Ogre]

There are a bunch of different ways this could go.
* Austin could bring new paint colors
* The 4680s could bring more range
* The 4680s could bring the same range at lower weight (so better overall efficiency)
* The front casting could increase frunk capacity or provision for some other feature up there (remember, the rear casting change increased the max vehicle payload by +331 lbs)

The worst that could happen are that the specs all stay pretty much the same. (Tesla is unlikely to reduce the range.)

Combine the potential tax credit and potential vehicle improvements, it's very understandable to want to wait.
And you can't really go wrong picking one up now (current specs) either.

I own a 2021 and love it, thinking about replacing our second car with one, but if I’m going to buy a new one I want some significant changes other than a marginally larger frunk (though that will be nice!). That sex red would do it. A bigger range option would be the cats meow.

 

[Gsxr150]

There are a bunch of different ways this could go.
* Austin could bring new paint colors
* The 4680s could bring more range
* The 4680s could bring the same range at lower weight (so better overall efficiency)
* The front casting could increase frunk capacity or provision for some other feature up there (remember, the rear casting change increased the max vehicle payload by +331 lbs)

The worst that could happen are that the specs all stay pretty much the same. (Tesla is unlikely to reduce the range.)

Combine the potential tax credit and potential vehicle improvements, it's very understandable to want to wait.
And you can't really go wrong picking one up now (current specs) either.

Correct, I love my wife's new Model Y, its an AWESOME truck. And, I do love my Model 3. But today I can get out of my Model 3 and upgrade to a Y for very little cash. Or, I keep enjoying my 3 and keep watching for some potential updates/changes. Good input here by all! Thank you!

 

[Gsxr150]

I own a 2021 and love it, thinking about replacing our second car with one, but if I’m going to buy a new one I want some significant changes other than a marginally larger frunk (though that will be nice!). That sex red would do it. A bigger range option would be the cats meow.

That's kind of my deal too...since the wife has a new Y, and my 3 does the trick. I "want" a Y as well, but it would be more fun if I could be patient and wait for some cool updates. At least get a little something different than what she has, haha (besides the performance vs her LR).