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Refreshed 2021+ Model X and Model X Plaid waiting room
- Thread starter Tiger
- Start date
strider
Active Member
From everything I know, the MS and MX are still using 18650 cells. There is ZERO chance that Tesla is doing any development on 18650s. The 4680 cells are behind schedule. This is why the Plaid+ was cancelled (it requires 4680s) and why Tesla is going to start with MY production in Austin ahead of CT (CT also requires 4680s to meet the price and performance specs).
I do not know what the chemistry is for the 4680s. From what I recall from Battery Day, it was all about the dry electrode process, reducing cobalt, and the tabless 4680s.
IMO, this delays are just standard Tesla incompetence/lack of planning. So they are making things up and solving problems during production, like they always do (and true to Elon's Silicon Valley roots).
I would not get your hopes up that the MX refresh will be different than the current MS refresh units. There has never been a powertrain difference between the 2 models.
LFP 12v batteries maybe.
However, there are several manufacturers who make the 18650 cell in LFP, so it's certainly possible to source them and I've no doubt Panasonic knows how to do that. They'd have to develop new charging/management strategies, but in the end, ought to be able to make the swap I'd think.
LFP might be what's enabling the heat tolerance of the new pack too. IIRC LFP doesn't make as much heat at a given discharge rate. Look forward to somebody getting their hands on a pack and taking it apart. This may be one of the reasons pack "size" in terms of kwh didn't go up for plaid/LR, but the performance definitely did and the range seems to not have taken much of a hit. LFP cells also hold a lower, but more steady, voltage for longer int heir discharge than the NCA batteries...which could explain why and how Plaid/LR are able to be consistent down to lower SoC's? Dunno. Fascinating stuff if you're a nerd
However, there are several manufacturers who make the 18650 cell in LFP, so it's certainly possible to source them and I've no doubt Panasonic knows how to do that. They'd have to develop new charging/management strategies, but in the end, ought to be able to make the swap I'd think.
LFP might be what's enabling the heat tolerance of the new pack too. IIRC LFP doesn't make as much heat at a given discharge rate. Look forward to somebody getting their hands on a pack and taking it apart. This may be one of the reasons pack "size" in terms of kwh didn't go up for plaid/LR, but the performance definitely did and the range seems to not have taken much of a hit. LFP cells also hold a lower, but more steady, voltage for longer int heir discharge than the NCA batteries...which could explain why and how Plaid/LR are able to be consistent down to lower SoC's? Dunno. Fascinating stuff if you're a nerd
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Empty tank
MXLR/BLK/Cream/20"/FSD Delivered 6/15/22 Flawless
5/20 Black with cream interior, 6 seats with 20" black wheels. EDD JANUARY before it went blank, still blank.
Dionysius
Member
I ordered in May and my delivery date always said January. Currently it’s gone. Will be picking up in Portland, OR
henderrj
Active Member
The chemistry is independent from cylindrical shape. Or any shape for that matter. Although the flat packs have other limitations. The shape of cylinders is simply about power density per area. The reason the larger 4680 cells are better is because you can pack more power in the same place. The tabless (actually multitabbed) design was necessary to get the cooling right.
I believe the reason you won't see the iron cells in the model S or X ever is more because of the weight. The relatively smaller size of the three and y batteries makes the standard range okay. But with the S and X the battery pack is much larger, hence the weight difference would be significant. And for no gain. Actually, quite a loss in miles.
Also I don't know of any long-term studies that show the longevity of the iron cells to be any better. They do withstand 100% charging, even should be occasionally, but I don't know if they actually last longer in miles. I've got a quarter million miles on my model S with the original battery, so we know they can last pretty well.
Less degradation and likes to be charged to 100%? I might also prefer LFP batteries. Not getting my hopes up, but Tesla has been known to surprise.
Empty tank
MXLR/BLK/Cream/20"/FSD Delivered 6/15/22 Flawless
strider
Active Member
Agreed. Apparently I wasn't clear in my writing. Changing the chemistry would cause a redesign/retool of the manufacturing line, even if the packaging stays the same. Tesla is not going to invest ANY money in the 18650 line and so there will be no changes to the 18650 cells. It would be a waste of money as Tesla wants to standardize on the 4680s across the board.
No change on my order. Still showing blank since last weekend.
Mar21 order, LR, Blue, 22" wheels, 5-passenger, cream interior
Just wondering out loud, is there a Tesla "system" issue or are they truly struggling with producing the new X? Don't understand how some orders now show dates, after going blank last week, while some earlier orders are still showing nothing!
Mar21 order, LR, Blue, 22" wheels, 5-passenger, cream interior
Just wondering out loud, is there a Tesla "system" issue or are they truly struggling with producing the new X? Don't understand how some orders now show dates, after going blank last week, while some earlier orders are still showing nothing!
studioloft
Gavin
My money is on a system issue. They claim there is a chip shortage which I do not doubt... however it is the same chip for the S and the X. I don't buy the chip argument. The S is clearly still being produced. The "system" issue is that they are prioritizing S production over the X.
The only light at the end of the tunnel is that we are seeing test Xs more and more on the road. Which makes sense, they need to find any flaws before mass producing. My hope is that this is only a legal formality as the car is not really too drastically different from the S. The items that make it different such as the falcon wing doors are already a tried and tested function.
Aren't Tesla's 18650's all sourced from a Japanese Panasonic line? I thought the gigafactories were only tooled for 2170's and soon 4680's (this was my understanding of why US parts content for X/S lags the 3/Y )
Who knows, maybe they made the falcon wings open down this time, because why use a design that works when you could just change it for no good damn reason at all
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