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I think that a potential redesign for the MS poses an interesting challenge for Tesla. These are custom ordered cars. How do you do a wholesale redesign without risking a flood of cancelations from people who now what the new design. Its an issue that the traditional car makers don't worry about. Everyone expects a new model year change, but with Tesla's rolling changes, this is unique. Instead of wholesale changes I would expect incremental one such as adjustable spoiler, better air filtration, etc.
This 100%.
It's a very different situation for Tesla than for anyone else. It reminds me very much of the new phone/PC market where people are constantly trying to make sure they know about the rumors of the future devices so they can plan purchases accordingly. A significant redesign would cause a FLOOD of canceled orders and however long the old version was still in production would see a significant loss in vehicle output.
One way to solve that problem (for investors and factory output)...? Introduce a totally new car as well.
Right, and the Model S was also not expected to get the high number of revisions it has already received in the last three years. Of course a facelift is coming. Anyone who thinks otherwise is just living in denial. Bringing the Model S and Model X as close as possible on the production line is going to be Tesla's priority, so of course we will start seeing Model X bits being incorporated into Model S. It may not all happen at once, but it will happen and sooner than you or anyone else expects. Tesla has been iterating the Model S at a rapid pace, why should its external looks be any different now that we have an obvious place for Tesla to take the design?
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This is what happened with the Ds of course. In fact, I had a P85 in the queue for production when they had the "D" event. I immediately cancelled and re-ordered. It was a bit chaotic, but they dealt with it.
I suspect that the "facelift" upcoming will be just that. There will be some changes to the bodywork and some new bells and whistles, but it will be built on the same line and most of the framework and internal structure will be the same. I think they can minimize the impact if they keep the delivery lead times fairly short, keep it all VERY quiet until announcement day, and hold off announcing until the new product line is pretty much ready to roll. There may be a handful of "prior" models that need to be sold off as discounted/demo cars.
The biggest signal that it's happening will be an unexpected multi-week cancellation of plant tours with no other obvious reason to keep people out.
That said, I'm better that we won't see a major change to the S until around the time of the 3. The X is a nice truck, but it's very similar to the S, excepting for some minor tweaks to the general body style; certainly nothing that makes the S look like old-stock.
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McHoffa
CyberOwners
This 100%.
It's a very different situation for Tesla than for anyone else. It reminds me very much of the new phone/PC market where people are constantly trying to make sure they know about the rumors of the future devices so they can plan purchases accordingly. A significant redesign would cause a FLOOD of canceled orders and however long the old version was still in production would see a significant loss in vehicle output.
One way to solve that problem (for investors and factory output)...? Introduce a totally new car as well.
The same could be said for the 3 unveiling though. If it's 100 times better in many ways than the S, many people will just hold off 18 months (or 24 months?). The smartest thing they could do in my opinion is to unveil the 3 and ALSO unveil a new S that will begin shipping immediately, giving those that have ordered the option of taking the old design at a slight discount or waiting for the new one (or, they could just take down orders for a couple weeks leading up to the event).
I'm considering an S, but if the 3 is far superior in the tech department (which it probably would be with a late 2017 launch) but the S is just going to stay the same, why would I want to waste on a MS? It would be like if gamers knew exactly what the PS5 was going to be and that it would launch next year around thanksgiving. People would be more likely to hold off on buying one for Christmas this year unless they offered some kind of spec bump for the PS4 (which is exactly what they did in the past, by offering a PS2 and PS3 slim).
This is the key right here. Because you don't know that it will be available next year. Even after March, you will still have no idea when the new car will actually be available. Even if Elon gives you an exact time and date, you will not know when you can actually get your hands on a car. So, you buy an S now (mine delivers in the next few weeks), and you buy another one if you just can't live without new features later on.
Vince Cobelo
Member
When there is a major refresh I bet it won't even be called the Model S. Instead it will be a whole new different sedan. Our Model S would still even be offered for sometime after the introduction of the new luxury sedan. Eh...since we're speculating.
Not all of us have that kind of disposable income that we can take a $30,000-$40,000 loss on a vehicle just to get the newest pieces a few months later. Many here are, and that's great, but not me. If I were looking to buy today, I would definitely wait. Model X was just launched and Model 3 reveal is happening in only four months. Lots of new goodness coming up that is going to make Model S look long in the tooth. Tesla will need to pull another demand lever soon, and guess what that's going to be?
This is a big issue with the build-to-order, direct sales approach.
What they need to do is wait until X production is running smoothly, the S backlog is relatively small, and they have the facelift/update completely engineered and ready to go into production. Then, they announce on fairly short notice (a week or so) an event, show off the new car, and announce that they are taking orders now and shipping cars in 30 days. Basically what they did with the D announcement.
What they need to do is wait until X production is running smoothly, the S backlog is relatively small, and they have the facelift/update completely engineered and ready to go into production. Then, they announce on fairly short notice (a week or so) an event, show off the new car, and announce that they are taking orders now and shipping cars in 30 days. Basically what they did with the D announcement.
Joules Verne
Member
mobe
Member
OR.......they do a running production change and the car you ordered arrives face lifted with no prior announcement al la autopilot hardware. They announced that MONTHS after they began installing it on all cars.
gizmoboy
Member
Not quite as easy to do that with highly visible changes that might, if people's reaction to the X facial is indicative, quite divisive.
I agree that you announce it when it's ready and you allow anyone not in production to reorder with the new look if they desire. Minimizes the negative impact to those currently on the line.
velocty
Member
This doesn't have a side-by-side, but might be the photoshopped MS you meant: Speculate: what will be included in the next major revamp of the Model S? - Page 3
No, I do not have that kind of money either. My comments were geared toward those deciding between a MS now or waiting for a Model 3. If the 3 is as affordable as promised, one could trade a MS and presumably be able to swing a fairly well-optioned 3.
wjhepworth
Member
I agree. Given that Tesla is more of a technology company ala Apple you will likely see any future Model S versions adopt any breakthroughs that the Model 3 will feature. So if Tesla can boost energy density that will find its way into the Model S & X batteries.
William13
Active Member
As previously discussed on prior threads. Elon indicated long ago that the cycle life would be similar to BMW seven year cycle. Why would anything else happen? I see no creditable arguments other than making pieces the same between X and S. This is not something that will show on the outside except in color choices or maybe the grill/nosecone.
Zybane
Member
I think some of you are seriously exaggerating how amazing the Model 3 will be. For $35K, I suspect a fairly "Leaf" like vehicle with great range and that's it. I also expect a fully loaded one to reach $50-60K.
Concur. I don't see Tesla bringing any sort of new/advanced technology outside of what is in the S to the 3. Remember, all of the innovation happens at high cost on the S and then trickles down to the 3. The 3 will benefit from the work happening NOW on the S, not the other way around.
