[Rumor] Tesla Model S Facelift in 2016 !

[ecarfan]

These rumors are driving me crazy. I will get my S90D in February. So if someone has any facts, can he advise me to get the car no or delay the order a few months now? Private message appreciated if this is confidential. Thank you!

Do not take rumors and random speculation as anything more than that. Tesla continually improves their cars and does not announce changes in advance. No one on this forum knows with certainty what Tesla will do in the future or when they will do it.
Buy a Tesla now if it meets your needs and you can afford it. Or wait for the "best" Tesla. But you will be waiting forever because the changes won't stop.

 

[CarlK]

But probably with cupholders...

What are you going to do with your free hands then? :biggrin:

Buy a Tesla now if it meets your needs and you can afford it. Or wait for the "best" Tesla. But you will be waiting forever because the changes won't stop.

The way Tesla does things no matter when you buy there will always be something new and better a few months after you buy yours. The only thing waiting does is delay the time that you can enjoy your car. There is never a better time to buy other than now, unless you absolutely know what is coming up and wheter that is worth the wait.

 

[smac]

Do not take rumors and random speculation as anything more than that. Tesla continually improves their cars and does not announce changes in advance. No one on this forum knows with certainty what Tesla will do in the future or when they will do it.
Buy a Tesla now if it meets your needs and you can afford it. Or wait for the "best" Tesla. But you will be waiting forever because the changes won't stop.

I do sort of agree. You buy the car as it stands, and that's fair enough. The subtlety (that is seeming lost on those saying it's little more than an iPad) is residuals are also an important feature of the value proposition.

Watching what Tesla do, not what they say (it's sad I feel that way about the brand btw) is that they are offloading inventory and showroom stock right now. I can't help but speculate (and it is that) they don't want to be the ones holding the can on "old stock".

They know full well that a significant hardware change hurts residuals (just look at AP / non-AP) and ,for right or wrong, they want to maximize the revenue per unit, achieving maximum non-discounted prices while also maintaining volume requires a level of secrecy.

As ever caveat emptor.

 

[Sparktz]

I do sort of agree. You buy the car as it stands, and that's fair enough. The subtlety (that is seeming lost on those saying it's little more than an iPad) is residuals are also an important feature of the value proposition.

Watching what Tesla do, not what they say (it's sad I feel that way about the brand btw) is that they are offloading inventory and showroom stock right now. I can't help but speculate (and it is that) they don't want to be the ones holding the can on "old stock".

They know full well that a significant hardware change hurts residuals (just look at AP / non-AP) and ,for right or wrong, they want to maximize the revenue per unit, achieving maximum non-discounted prices while also maintaining volume requires a level of secrecy.

As ever caveat emptor.

Doesn't pretty much every company try to offload their inventory at the end of the year to boost sales figures and inventory cost? I don't know that I would equate that with Tesla knowing that the value of what they have is going to go down due to a major change. For what its worth, my car gets delivered in about a week.

 

[smac]

Doesn't pretty much every company try to offload their inventory at the end of the year to boost sales figures and inventory cost? I don't know that I would equate that with Tesla knowing that the value of what they have is going to go down due to a major change. For what its worth, my car gets delivered in about a week.

Indeed and normally with some form of discounting or incentive, otherwise you'd opt for waiting a week to get a car titled as 2016.

TBH from 2012-2014 with a modicum of stability the strategy was ok. Having waited 14 months to get a superseded car two weeks later, I'm less than impressed with this as a way of ensuring customer satisfaction. given Tesla's own formula this was an immediate devaluation for me ... so once bitten twice shy.

This turmoil has continued since, where here in the UK a number of owners even received "top of the line cars", only for them to be "out of date" before they even got delivered (the P90D launch).

I fully get Tesla are finding their way in this regard, but there is a reason for model years, and heavy discounting prior to model updates. This way both parties come away with something (either discount or volume). The Tesla way is all stacked in Tesla's favor.

It doesn't make the car any worse (they are great cars) it's just a mindset thing, given the expense it can be a bit galling to feel you've "lost" on the deal.

I'll caveat this with a huge dose of it being speculation on my part, the car could change, or equally just stay the same (which I genuinely hope it does for you and for Tesla's brand stability!)

 

[brkaus]

There is no win situation with build to order for a new model.

 

[gsxdsm]

All signs are pointing to a refresh of some sort in the next 3-4 months.

 

[HankLloydRight]

All signs are pointing to a refresh of some sort in the next 3-4 months.

People keep saying this, but what signs? Tea leaves? Tarrot cards?

 

[gsxdsm]

People keep saying this, but what signs? Tea leaves? Tarrot cards?

There is a certain vagueness about it because it is likely the sources for some of this info are within Tesla and not authorized to share concrete info about future plans.

Also remember, a lot of owners live and work in Tesla's backyard and have close friends that work there. Hints get dropped. Winks and nudges get passed. There is nothing concrete but enough whispers around and from different sources that something has to be up.

I was initially pretty skeptical also, but seeing the recent inventory clear out, statements from MobileEye, bits of rumors that all start to line up ... It's hard to ignore.

 

[HankLloydRight]

Nah, it's really easy to ignore the noise. Absolutely zero facts, spy photos, verifiable leaks, Etc. Let's revisit in 3-4 months.. And I suspect then it will still be "3-4 months" away. Lather, rinse, repeat.

 

[gsxdsm]

Remember the photo of the S in Hawthorn with black housed LED lights?

That at least counts.

The dual cameras in the Model X design center photos.

I feel most confident about new AP hardware and LED headlights.

Medium confidence about ventilated seats (especially since all standard seat leather options are now gone - they're working through seat inventory).

Low confidence on redesigned nose cone but it's a possibility.

Thats it.

 

[tanner]

Remember the photo of the S in Hawthorn with black housed LED lights?

That at least counts.

The dual cameras in the Model X design center photos.

I feel most confident about new AP hardware and LED headlights.

Medium confidence about ventilated seats (especially since all standard seat leather options are now gone - they're working through seat inventory).

Low confidence on redesigned nose cone but it's a possibility.

Thats it.

new AP hardware. What makes you say that? I would like to see the dual camera photos you're referring to.

- - - Updated - - -

Also, did you guys see this...? Tesla Model S Refresh Not Happening

 

[smac]

Remember the photo of the S in Hawthorn with black housed LED lights? That at least counts.

Not seen that one, do you have a link?

The dual cameras in the Model X design center photos.

I feel most confident about new AP hardware and LED headlights.

Medium confidence about ventilated seats (especially since all standard seat leather options are now gone - they're working through seat inventory).

Certainly the molding used for the X on the Founders had a blanking plate for a second camera, so two cameras is a possibility. Though as others have said the software rollout is probably a way off.

Strangely I see an interior re-work as more of a probability. The next gen seats not matching the current rears, lack of ventilation, and other niggles would seem an obvious fix as they streamline seat production in light of the X.

Personally I thought the interior for the X would be more of a departure than we saw in the founders cars, with a floating touch screen and better materials as we saw in the prototype. With this rolling into a similar make over into the S along the same timescales, if for no other reason than to maintain commonality for inventory reasons. To me it seemed very strange to launch the X with what is in effect a parts bin interior from a 4 year old car.

Maybe my view is skewed as I see very little wrong with the outside of the car, the interior however has never quite been up there with other premium brand saloons in terms of material quality or fine detail. I do prefer the open layout of the S over the more cocooned feel you get in traditional machines, so whatever happens I hope this won't be lost.

 

[aija SigX 649]

Don't see a compelling reason to refresh the S at the moment ..so long as it continues to sell and gets incremental SW upgrades. (Data Dependent )

IMO, the Roadster will be the first redesign after the 3 (and Y). Model 3 will likely be very stylish and technologically equivalent to S and X in terms of range and comforts, just smaller, lighter, and less luxurious at the base price. Fully loaded, the 3 (and Y) will likely be as well appointed as the S and X ..but so long as the S and X exist, folks who can afford to, will likely gravitate toward them.

 

[HankLloydRight]

Remember the photo of the S in Hawthorn with black housed LED lights? That at least counts.

As a "refresh"? Hardly. Incremental update at best.

The dual cameras in the Model X design center photos.

One extra blurry, pixelated image from an artist's rendering. Not of an actual, real car. I've never seen so much wild speculation from a few thousand pixels of two grey triangles.

Medium confidence about ventilated seats (especially since all standard seat leather options are now gone - they're working through seat inventory).

Maybe, but like the other changes (and I've said this before), this will be an incremental change (if it happens at all, I have my doubts).

A true "refresh" is a clearly defined set of significant changes (usually including sheet metal tweaks) released at one time, which usually happens over a model year change for ICEs, but in Tesla's case, worthy of a press conference or Hawthorn unveiling party. Not a set of separate, independent changes over the course of a year or longer. All those things you mention might happen over time, and even if they all do happen, it's still not a "refresh".

 

[R.S]

I think there will be a small redesign, or at least some added features.
I guess it will be something like:
-LED lights, obviously.
-ventilated seats
-minor interior changes, like new seats and new colors/trims(everything they can reuse from the X)
- retractable wing for the P90D
- maybe a changed front, just because Holzhausen isn't that happy with the nosecone
(- tow hitch, maybe)

I don't think it will be a lot, but I do think they want to include the X innovations and make it look a bit different. Its like with every other car manufacturer, you don't want to spend money, but keep the customers interested another 3 to 4 years. Solution: some tech features carried over from other cars and slight cosmetic changes. There is a reason why thats the industry standard and if Tesla doesn't want to redevelop their car every 4 years, they might have to follow that rule. I know that Tesla believes in incremental changes, but they also believe in big announcements.

 

[smac]

Its like with every other car manufacturer, you don't want to spend money, but keep the customers interested another 3 to 4 years. Solution: some tech features carried over from other cars and slight cosmetic changes. There is a reason why thats the industry standard and if Tesla doesn't want to redevelop their car every 4 years, they might have to follow that rule. I know that Tesla believes in incremental changes, but they also believe in big announcements.

I'm with you on this, maybe it's a more European view of timescales to own a car? 3 years is a very common time for the first owner to keep the car (especially on business finance). It's probably historic as that's when traditionally they went out of warranty, at least here in the UK.

I know it's vain, but when mine is 3 years old, I'll be sorely tempted to wait if the replacement looked identical. (Given my use: AP is of exceedingly marginal use to me, I don't need any more range, lack of AWD is no problem, performance is more than adequate, and I'll still likely have 20k+ miles of bumper to bumper warranty left).

 

[FloridaGary]

I would expect subtle changes like headlight and or tail lights. I hope they don't change anything for now and I see the Model S design as one that won't show its age for a long time. I have a 2004 Infiniti G35 and if you compare it to the current Q50 the body has some minor changes but the tech offered now is what makes it significantly different.

 

[AmpedRealtor]

All signs are pointing to a refresh of some sort in the next 3-4 months.

People keep saying this, but what signs? Tea leaves? Tarrot cards?

My feeling is that Model S will be refreshed when Elon decides to pull another demand lever. It looks like folks are able to get build-to-order cars in less than 30 days now, some as fast as 10-14 days from order to build to transport. That would imply either greater factory capacity or lower demand, or a combination. Either way, given these delivery times I would expect another demand lever to be pulled in the first 2 quarters of 2016 and in line with a ramp up of Model X production. It lowers Tesla's production costs to get Model S on as many of the same components as Model X. The writing is on the wall, I think, and only a matter of a few months.

We have Autopilot. We have a 2.8 second car. The only things left are a redesign and increased battery capacity as demand levers.

 

[jerjozwik]

It looks like folks are able to get build-to-order cars in less than 30 days now, some as fast as 10-14 days from order to build to transport..

but now its back up to 2 months! rar!