Russia/Ukraine conflict

[wdolson]

I quoted MSNBC. It's an error on their part. When I saw it I could no longer edit my post...

MSNBC is normally fairly accurate in their facts (opinion on those facts is another thing), but I've found them to be pretty poor in their war coverage thus far. Some flunky probably heard it wrong and wrote 15,000 guns.

The news-segment I wanted to post was about an attack that the Russians claimed was carried out inside Russia by Ukraine.

Since it's from an AP-page (Associated Press) with several news-segments the URL got the headline about the sunken ship instead...

Here's the text again. And this time I managed to paste it without the forum software adding that pesky un-edit-able qoute-formatting...

Here:

"Russian authorities have accused Ukrainian forces of launching air strikes on the Russian region of Bryansk which borders with Ukraine, the latest in a series of allegations of cross-border attacks by Kyiv on Russian territory.

Russia’s Investigative Committee alleged that two Ukrainian military helicopters entered Russia’s air space Thursday and, “moving at low altitude, acting deliberately, they carried out at least six air strikes on residential buildings in the village of Klimovo,” about 11 kilometers away from the Russian border.

It said at least six houses in the village were damaged and seven people, including a toddler, sustained injuries. The Investigative Committee has launched a probe into the attack.

Earlier on Thursday, Russia’s state security service, or the FSB, also accused Ukrainian forces of firing mortars at a border post in the Bryansk region on Wednesday.

The reports could not be independently verified. Earlier this month, Ukraine’s top security officials denied that Kyiv was behind an air strike on an oil depot in the Russian city of Belgorod, 35 miles from the border. [My underline.]"

The US has said the attack on the oil depot was done by Ukraine. The Ukrainians are highly tuned into the public perceptions about this war and have done a masterful job cultivating their image. Part of that is being very disciplined about their targets and only attacking military targets.

It is possible that Ukraine made a mistake. Even the most cautious militaries make mistakes and kill civilians in war, but this smells like a false flag attack. The Russians have been trying them every week or two and they end up going nowhere outside of the Russian controlled media sphere.

The Ukrainians and/or western intelligence usually debunk the Russian claims within a day or two.

I'll wait and see.

 

[nwdiver]

The Ukrainians are highly tuned into the public perceptions about this war and have done a masterful job cultivating their image.

I love their twitter account.

 

[petit_bateau]

Just to stay focussed on facts, the weather in the Sevastpol area has been fairly calm the last few days. Ditto for Odessa. I've not pulled out the gribs for the offshore weather in that part of the Black Sea but it won't have been much different. Reports of a storm sound somewhat exaggerated. Has anyone any actual data that shows differently ?

Past Weather in Sevastopol, Ukraine — Yesterday or Further Back

Weather reports from the last weeks in Sevastopol with highs and lows

www.timeanddate.com

In practical military terms, provided Moskva was being employed correctly by the Russians (!?) she would have given them the following contributions:
- a mobile S300 anti-air battery with corresponding sensors and control that could extend the IADS covrage of the Russians well into southern Ukraine (c. 200km, maybe 400km, depends on loadout);
- a capable mobile ESM platform to allow for better triangulation of Ukraine emitters;
- a 16-launcher cruise missile (SS-12) platform with a 550km range and 950kg HE warhead, typical of a lot of the Russian attacks on inner and western Ukraine;
- (possibly) a command & control platform for other Russian naval assets in the area, though it may be that they are all in practice being run from onshore HQ in Crimea.

Now every Russian surface vessel in the Black Sea is on notice. You can also see why it is so important for the Ukraine to regain access to the Sea of Azov coastline to be able to hold all Russian naval activity there similarly at risk.

 

[wdolson]

Yes I understand this W, I’m curious what makes you think I don’t? The US takes very measured steps when attacking the enemy infrastructure in Iraq, they would mostly bomb at night to ensure that civilians are not outside and getting what we coin “collateral damage.”

I wasn't sure.

I agree with this assessment, the US loves using bombs and we do it well. I can’t remember who was trying to question me here about the US using plenty more bombs in Iraq than Russia during the first 5 days of war to ensure air superiority, but here I found this for you:

View attachment 793694
The Russians attacked Ukraine on Feb. 24, article was dated March 6, so after 11-12 days the Russians used 600 missiles vs the US around 2,000 (on day 5). May I rest my case with those who are questioning how air superiority is quickly gained?

The US also had well coordinated air assets that kept control of the air once the AA was knocked out. The Russians don't appear to have that capability.

Another factor is that the US' attack on Iraq was done on a country that was essentially isolated with no industrialized allies who were willing to come to their aid and they had essentially no domestic defense industry.

Ukraine makes some of its own weapons and has lots of industrialized allies sending them a lot of resources. The Ukrainians are also putting up a lot stronger fight than the Iraqis did.

I agree the US does a much better job at planning and coordinating offensive wars and that Russians haven’t done their due diligence and cannot match US standards here.

haha yes, I’ve watched plenty of these videos on YouTube, Twitter, etc. I spend 2-3 hours a days scouring for news on Ukraine and Russia. Lately I’ve been spending more time here, which isn’t very productive as I keep having to repeat myself.

This maybe because the Russians haven’t really met an enemy worth their time, until now. The Russians have been fighting weaker opponents and outmatch them on ammunition. Whereas the US tries not to underestimate its enemy, and sometimes over train. Life is much more valuable in the west than it is in Russia, so we tend to train our boys as much as we can. The media holding our government accountable also helps. Where I find reason to complain about, is how we deal with soldiers after they’ve been retired. More needs to be done to take care of boys who leave the battlefield with PTSD.

Agreed on all counts here. My partner has been helping people with battlefield PTSD. Neurofeedback has proven to be an amazing tool. She had one client who had been put into a mental hospital because of his PTSD. He had dramatic improvements in only a few sessions.

Neurofeedback is beginning to get acceptance with the medical world and it's expected the VA will start using it within a few years.

I didn’t know this, you learn something new everyday. Hopefully in don’t forget this piece in future discussions.


I agree with you here, the Chinese don’t have high quality chips because their IP is protected by TSMC and the equipment is highly protected by ASML, some of these equipments are so expensive that ASML requires NVDIA/TSMC to be joint partners in R&D cost in order to develop faster compute power equipment. One of these chip making machines go as high as $600,000,000 a piece. The Chinese have been trying to buy them, but Trump passed a law preventing the Dutch from selling these machines to the Chinese. China, in turn passed a $1.4 trillion spending bill to partner their state government with private enterprise in order to beef up their chip making capabilities. It will take a lot of time and physics to catch up, maybe 10-15 years, but I think the Chinese will eventually figure it out. You can tell I follow this situation closely as well, although I’m not an engineer by trade I can put the two and two together.

Recently, the Ukrainians discovered that the Russian drones had chips made from western and Asian companies, some researchers have found those chips to be outsourced “from Asia,” although no one knew exactly where it came from, but the cost of the chip gave it away, $2 which can only mean it came from China. Yes, although the Chinese can’t yet make chips that go into fighter jets or iPhones, they can still make them for drones and missiles. In fact, our military has discovered some of these knockoff chips in their own equipment/missiles, that come from China for purposes of espionage. Here are some articles you might enjoy:

Older design missiles have more simple guidance systems than the latest tech. But if they use custom ICs, they will have to wait for the Chinese to develop the replacement.

The drones may have been put together with a lot of off the shelf parts. I've seen some pictures of shot down drones and they are using standard 18650 li-ion cells. The electronics might be something easy to source from different suppliers too.

The chip challenge: Keeping Western semiconductors out of Russian weapons

When Silicon Valley chipmaker Marvell learned that one of its chips was found in a Russian surveilla

www.thehindu.com

China-sourced fake chips used in US military, says BusinessWeek | Technology | The Guardian

<p>Fake microchips from China are causing a growing number of failures in military systems, according to <a href="http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/08_41/b4103034193886.htm?chan=magazine+channel_top+stories">an investigation by BusinessWeek magazine</a></p>

amp.theguardian.com

See my post above, it will take 10-15 years for the Chinese to catch up in the chip making department, just like it would take time for them to catch up to tesla. But once they do catch up, it’s off to the races, they will have many more brains working on this, and their government will continue to throw money at the problem. Many here can’t seem to accept that China might surpass us one day. Bring this topic of China surpassing the US and you’ll trigger lots of nerves.

The Chinese might catch up in 10-15 years, but that's a long time in the semiconductor business. Who knows where China will be in 10-15 years. They are facing some major challenges in the near future. For one they ave a demographic cliff coming due to the one child policy.

What we don’t know can get us into trouble. The attitude that WW3 will be short if Putin doesn’t nuke is the same attitude Russians went into Ukraine with. Avoid it, delete it, because I know many more lives will be lost in WW3 scenario than what we’re seeing now. Some warhawks here will disagree, but that’s ok. My purpose is to bring attention to the potential lost life. It’s easy for some armchair quarter backs to say it’ll be a short war, especially when they’re not doing the fighting or live next door to the Russians.

Russia has lost a tremendous amount of their conventional military now and they will lose more. A conventional military can't keep fighting if they have no equipment and no troops. Even if they want to.

There is a concept in the military world of a spent force. The Russians are quickly headed there now.

I’m going to say this: Biden is the best thing to happen to NATO in a long time. I would love to see both Finland and Sweden join, it’s about time they stop neutrality. The timing for them to join is almost as perfect as you can get. As for what the Russians are capable and incapable of, I can’t work with assumptions under a duress situation like a world war, but I can say this, as war between Ukraine and Russia drags on, the Russians will be forced to show their cards. The deeper Putin gets his military into to this campaign, we’ll get to see their capabilities and what they are incapable of doing. This in some ways is a gift to the US/NATO, and it will make China blink if the Russians don’t have what we are afraid they might have.

There is a running joke: if Ukraine survives Russia, it will be NATO applying for Ukrainian membership at the end of this war, not the other way around.

Just to stay focussed on facts, the weather in the Sevastpol area has been fairly calm the last few days. Ditto for Odessa. I've not pulled out the gribs for the offshore weather in that part of the Black Sea but it won't have been much different. Reports of a storm sound somewhat exaggerated. Has anyone any actual data that shows differently ?

Past Weather in Sevastopol, Ukraine — Yesterday or Further Back

Weather reports from the last weeks in Sevastopol with highs and lows

www.timeanddate.com

In practical military terms, provided Moskva was being employed correctly by the Russians (!?) she would have given them the following contributions:
- a mobile S300 anti-air battery with corresponding sensors and control that could extend the IADS covrage of the Russians well into southern Ukraine (c. 200km, maybe 400km, depends on loadout);
- a capable mobile ESM platform to allow for better triangulation of Ukraine emitters;
- a 16-launcher cruise missile (SS-12) platform with a 550km range and 950kg HE warhead, typical of a lot of the Russian attacks on inner and western Ukraine;
- (possibly) a command & control platform for other Russian naval assets in the area, though it may be that they are all in practice being run from onshore HQ in Crimea.

Now every Russian surface vessel in the Black Sea is on notice. You can also see why it is so important for the Ukraine to regain access to the Sea of Azov coastline to be able to hold all Russian naval activity there similarly at risk.

Ukraine Claims to Have Struck the Flagship of Russia's Black Sea Fleet

I've seen the same weather information elsewhere.

"Open-source satellite imagery could confirm the claim, but it may be difficult to obtain until cloud cover clears. Weather in the region is poor, with heavy clouds, rain and winds of about 18 knots. Moskva was last observed departing Sevastopol on April 10."

 

[petit_bateau]

18 knots is not a storm as we all know, just a normal breeze at sea. Overcast is not a storm either, just normal for Europe.

It is noticeable if you look at the pictures from Northern Ukraine that the surface terrain is drying out pretty rapidly with the onset of Summer.

Do any of the other Russian Black Sea fleet ships carry SAM systems that are equivalent to the S300, ie area Air defence ? Or are the frigates and corvettes just equipped with short range SAM systems? I've not looked and am out and about. The point is that if nothing else carries the S300 then it makes it more difficult for the Russians to even think about a group of naval shipping as opposed to singletons.

 

[wdolson]

18 knots is not a storm as we all know, just a normal breeze at sea. Overcast is not a storm either, just normal for Europe.

It is noticeable if you look at the pictures from Northern Ukraine that the surface terrain is drying out pretty rapidly with the onset of Summer.

Do any of the other Russian Black Sea fleet ships carry SAM systems that are equivalent to the S300, ie area Air defence ? Or are the frigates and corvettes just equipped with short range SAM systems? I've not looked and am out and about. The point is that if nothing else carries the S300 then it makes it more difficult for the Russians to even think about a group of naval shipping as opposed to singletons.

The frigates are two Krivak class and three Grigrovich class. The Grigorvich class are the newer and more capable with 2 launchers for 3S90M SAMs. The Krivak has 2 launchers for SA-N-4 SAMs. The corvettes just have SA-N-4.

 

[CHGolferJim]

Recommended by a friend formerly at US Dept of Defense: Early Bird Brief - Top military, defense and national security headlines. | Defense News

 

[ZsoZso]

I love their twitter account.

View attachment 793860

I love the reply in the thread that with the pretend Kremlin response:
The ship is not sinking, we just developed a special technique to extinguish all the fire.

 

[petit_bateau]

The frigates are two Krivak class and three Grigrovich class. The Grigorvich class are the newer and more capable with 2 launchers for 3S90M SAMs. The Krivak has 2 launchers for SA-N-4 SAMs. The corvettes just have SA-N-4.

Thanks.

Regarding SAM systems :

The SA-4 "Gecko" SAMs on the two Krivak frigates and the corvettes only have a ~10-mile range. Therefore these have no real impact on the aviation war over the land, and a really only for self-defense purposes.

The naval variant of the SA-11/17/27 "Buk" SAMs on the three Grigorovich are the later VLS type with a range of 50km/30nm, so comparable to Sea Dart and looking at the specs not to be sneered at. Useful as a naval task force area air defence system, but not really capable of directly intervening in the aviation war over the land unless they are able to park the ships right up close to the coast (which to be fair, they can do in Azov Sea and by Crimea).

Overall the loss of the Moskva has pretty much taken the Russian Navy out of the game of direct intervention in aviation over the land area of Ukraine which will reduce complications for Ukraine pilots.

However the remaining naval platforms may still have some utility as ESM platforms, and the Grigorovichs have a pretty potent radar system. I'm not sure if the Russians can network that into a common air picture with their land sensors.

Regarding land-atack missiles : Some of the remaining ships do have some capabilities, but the loss of the Moskva has considerably reduced the available throw weight. Also it has completely eliminated the utility of one ammunition type (the SSN-12) which is something they may have had deeper stocks of (it was an older missile).

I see some reports suggesting that one of the other attacks by Ukraine on a Russian vessel was previously with a Neptune, a few weeks ago, resulting in one hit. Just rumours at this stage.

 

[Terminator857]

Even as NATO talks about evils of Russia, US has effected yet another regime change.

That too in a region that has paid a very heavy price because of US - Russia hostilities.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1513110768266330115

When someone states a speculation as a fact, it is just a "lie".

And those who "like" such posts aren't any better.

 

[nwdiver]

I love the reply in the thread that with the pretend Kremlin response:
The ship is not sinking, we just developed a special technique to extinguish all the fire.

I saw a RT headline somewhere that read 'Glorious Black Sea Fleet successfully intercepts 2 Ukrainian missiles'

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

Sounds like Putin's propaganda to me.

I've posted this before – but it's obviously time once again:

Before Putin’s full scale invasion of Ukraine – who would even think of attacking Russia? Who? Russia has NUCLEAR WEAPONS (as we all know and are VERY, VERY, VERY aware of)!

NO-ONE WOULD EVER, EVER ATTACK RUSSIA!

IF Russia was a Democracy today this would be a COMPLETE NON-ISSUE!!!

.../ You have a western mindset. To a westerner the Russian belief they are in constant existential threat from the west is ludicrous, but it isn't to Russians. /.../

Populations get ideas stuck in their heads that are vitally important to that population, but look like nonsense to outsiders. This paranoia about foreign invasion really is a thing in Russia. Even though it is insane to a westerner. /... [My underline.]

1. What do you base this on – apart from a few anecdotal repostings from a few journalists?

2. To me this just seems to be one of the Kremlin's greatest Psyops! By using one or their countless BLATANT LIES they have managed to make people in the west internalize a completely warped 'understanding' for the Kremlin's 'position' in this 'conflict'. Again – all based on a very clever but nonetheless BLATANT LIE!

If someone is able to control how people [in the West in this case] think - then that will also have an impact on reality in a democratic society!

3. Today it is impossible to know what Russians are thinking about anything. How can we expect anyone to be honest about anything if their future and their families future literally depends on them regurgitating the Kremlin's lies?

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

Not connected to the previous post:

I incredibly enough actually hadn't realized it – I actually had to hear someone say it on the Swedish Public Service Radio... – but the MAIN reasons why Putin invaded Crimea, the Donbas and Georgia was probably to prevent those two countries from being able to join NATO. Once there was a "territorial dispute" they could no longer be accepted as members into NATO...

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

.../ You have a western mindset. To a westerner the Russian belief they are in constant existential threat from the west is ludicrous, but it isn't to Russians. /.../

Populations get ideas stuck in their heads that are vitally important to that population, but look like nonsense to outsiders. This paranoia about foreign invasion really is a thing in Russia. Even though it is insane to a westerner. /... [My underline.]

1. What do you base this on – apart from a few anecdotal repostings from a few journalists?

2. To me this just seems to be one of the Kremlin's greatest Psyops! By using one or their countless BLATANT LIES they have managed to make people in the west internalize a completely warped 'understanding' for the Kremlin's 'position' in this 'conflict'. Again – all based on a very clever but nonetheless BLATANT LIE!

If someone is able to control how people [in the West in this case] think - then that will also have an impact on reality in a democratic society!

3. Today it is impossible to know what Russians are thinking about anything. How can we expect anyone to be honest about anything if their future and their families future literally depends on them regurgitating the Kremlin's lies?

And even IF a substantial number of 'ordinary' Russians actually do have a real "paranoia about [a] foreign invasion"... What actual value should we attribute to this considering that this 'mindset' 100% guaranteed is the result of the massive Kremlin brainwashing from the Kremlin's Propaganda Machine...

Again: If Russia was a Democracy today – then this would be a complete non-issue!

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

"Vladimir Putin's former chief economic adviser Andrei Illarionov argues that a full embargo of Russian oil [and gas] could end the war within a month or two. Illaronov discusses this idea with CNN's Brianna Keilar on New Day."

 

[petit_bateau]

Not connected to the previous post:

I incredibly enough actually hadn't realized it – I actually had to hear someone say it on the Swedish Public Service Radio... – but the MAIN reasons why Putin invaded Crimea, the Donbas and Georgia was probably to prevent those two countries from being able to join NATO. Once there was a "territorial dispute" they could no longer be accepted as members into NATO...

Yes, it is surprising how few people realise this.

In the same way, Putin's Russia has had considerable success in utilising its proxy states INSIDE the EU that have neutral status to inhibit the EU's moves to create a cohesive and coherent common defence & security architecture. Witness the useful idiots of Ireland, Malta, Cyprus, Austria, Hungary as well as the (different category) Finnish and Sweden.

That is a reason why Putin's Russia would be fairly happy for a partitioned Ukraine (with autonomous Moscow-controlled regions: Donbass & Crimea) to become a neutral member of the EU. That way Russia would be further able to inhibit EU decision-making in that realm.

Ditto for Georgia and Moldova.

In respect of Finland and Sweden the reality is dawning. You only get Art 5 protection when you are actually a NATO member. Being a partner is just warm words in nice times.

In respect of some of the others words fail me. As does the view of some EU members who are quite happy to see countries like Albania, Montenegro, North Macedona put their shoulder to the wheel in NATO, but endlessly block EU accession. Some of these are useful idiots, others simply hypocrites.

And don't start me on the stupidity of the Brexit voters

 

[samppa]

Not connected to the previous post:

I incredibly enough actually hadn't realized it – I actually had to hear someone say it on the Swedish Public Service Radio... – but the MAIN reasons why Putin invaded Crimea, the Donbas and Georgia was probably to prevent those two countries from being able to join NATO. Once there was a "territorial dispute" they could no longer be accepted as members into NATO...

Yeah, that rule is a bit of a catch-22.. and the reason that Finland needs to join Nato now, when Putin is busy.

 

[petit_bateau]

"How To Guide"

 

[UkNorthampton]

"How To Guide"

Subtitles in Finnish and English. I'm not sure Swedish subtitles would be needed (except by Swedish-first language tractor-driving Finns). I don't think Russian armour would make it to Sweden.

 

[CHGolferJim]

How important is Kaliningrad, and how well-defended is it?