Again...on the topic of Finland you are foolish and dangerously ignorant. USSR invaded Finland 3 times post 1917, in the low grade civil war following the formation of the USSR and twice in WWII. Only the intervention of USA and UK kept USSR from stationing troops in Finland.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
Which raises the question, how could you trust any agreement Putin made if you got him to the table? Clearly this should be up to Ukraine and they have their own experience with wether to trust Russia.
Indeed. Just amazing ugly americanism; makes one wonder if they realize that people are actually dying, a mother lost her son today. A father lost his youngest child that he read to every day as a toddler. It's up to Ukraine and if they are willing and want to fight...I'll pay $6 for diesel for our trucks (we are logistics constrained so this has started eating profits). Finland is smart to move know why they can, love the Finns. Loved my time there, would have been happy to have stayed but events overtook things, there was no better place to be in the spring of 89...you could just smell Freedom coming for eastern europe. Never got the idea that it was coming for Russia, I met a few but..it wasn't the same. Eastern Europeans were chomping at the bit to break free.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
I agree with your sentiment, but (and apologies ahead of time, since I find your posts informative and well worth reading) I could not let this pass ...
I was thinking about American trumpers who have lived their entire lives in the USA and obviously know F all except for a bag full of conspiracy 'theories' and a suitcase full of hate. By your standards they rise to the level of acceptable forum contributor.
I suppose these things are relative
Last edited:
Well Finland is making it official. Sweden likely not far behind. I still say this is a great time to get Putin to the table before they actually join. Perhaps it's too late and this all just needs to run its course
/cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/O476USW5CVLLDMBPGTLRSNWLUQ.jpg)
Finnish president confirms country will apply to join NATO
Finland's President Sauli Niinisto confirmed on Sunday that his country would apply for membership of the NATO military alliance, in a historic policy shift prompted by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.www.reuters.com
Putin won't come to the negotiation table with any seriousness because he's afraid of looking weak. If he's gone for one reason or another his replacement could come to the negotiating table and blame everything on the last guy.
I had to watch it twice. The events are there.
We're not going to end the use of fossil fuels anytime soon. We have technologies to greatly reduce their use once those techs can be built in large enough numbers, but we still have no viable alternative to fossil fuels for aviation or long range ships.
Nuclear exists for ships, but it's only viable for large warships. There was a nuclear power freighter built, but it's payload was too small, the reactor took up too much space.
For most passenger cars and many commercial road vehicles electrification is a proven alternative to oil. There will probably remain a niche for ICE for some time, but it will be small (driving long distances where electricity is not readily available). We can put a big dent in the use of fossil fuels, but we're not going to eliminate it.
Natural gas will also likely continue to be used for electricity generation even as wind and solar expand. There are parts of the world where solar is not viable (here in the Portland area it would take more than 30 years for a solar installation to pay for itself because of the weather and cheap electricity fro hydro). Wind works in many areas, but there is a maximum concentration of wind mills. Put them too close together and they will interfere with each other's air flow. Stationary storage is coming along. Companies like ESS have cheap batteries for that application that will make wind and solar more viable for year round power once they scale up.
There will still need to be some other type of energy generation on top of wind and solar. The problem with all renewable energy sources is they are very diffuse. They produce much less energy per acre than fossil fuel and nuclear sources and all are dependent on some natural resource being there and active (water, wind, or the sun) to work.
The natural gas plants may end up relegated to peaking units, which only run when demand is high, but they will likely be around for most of the rest of this century.
Not to say there won't be a positive benefit to the political situation with the changes we can make. Cutting demand even as little as 5-10% will have an impact on producers, it did during the pandemic. It will make it easier for the world to shun a producer who is being a bad actor in some way.
But it's also going to take a lot of time to replace all the ICE vehicles. The average age of a car on US roads is 12 years. As we electrify the newer, more fuel efficient cars will move down market, which will be better, but the poor will continue to drive ICE for a long time unless there is another cash for clunkers type of program. But that can only happen when there is an abundant supply of electric cars, which won't happen for some time.
The world currently makes about 100 million cars and light trucks a year and there are over 1.4 billion vehicles on the roads. Even if we could switch to 100% electric sales tomorrow, it will take 14-15 years to replace all the vehicles in the world. Car makers are not going to want to build over capacity to make many more cars than they make now because when the market saturates demand will drop and they will have to shut down those factories they built. It's not cost effective to increase world production to much more than the 100 million we're making now.
Electrification of the world is a marathon, not a sprint.
The oligarchs are the weakest players among the Russian top players. Putin has rigged the game so the oligarchs are completely dependent on him.
His biggest threat is from the intelligence agencies. By the nature of the job those agencies have had to hire the best and brightest and their job is to analyze the tea leaves and determine what they mean. There are quite a few people in those agencies who can see how bad this war is for Russia on many levels. They are the most likely to act to remove Putin and replace him with someone who may be just as bad for Russia, but at least won't have the recklessness to invade their neighbors.
I have a friend in Finland I correspond with from time to time. He was telling me the impact the Winter War had on his own family. Two uncles were killed, two were physically disabled, and one taken prisoner and didn't return for a while.
Finland remembers very well what Russia can do.
Well I don't write very well..to be honest. I meant to basically say that the American trumpers should not post, by my standards they should read and think deeply, travel and experience life. I simply don't get trumpers or those against democracy in general.
No apologies ever needed, btw. I also enjoy your posts on a variety of threads.
Last edited:
wdolson Sure the Finnish remember what the Russians did...they are the only nation threatened by Russia to maintain an authentic and functioning national defense strategy against Russia. They had deep trade ties, joining NATO will have an impact.
Nothing like a beautiful blonde telling you how much her family hates russians as she strips off to go skinny dipping in a lake with you. Her idea of making a pass was to talk *sugar* about Russia....good times...good times. Romanians...just getting them to give you their name was work...getting more than that...was golden. Golden spring it was.
Nothing like a beautiful blonde telling you how much her family hates russians as she strips off to go skinny dipping in a lake with you. Her idea of making a pass was to talk *sugar* about Russia....good times...good times. Romanians...just getting them to give you their name was work...getting more than that...was golden. Golden spring it was.
Thanks to everyone on this thread for the enlightenment each day. I do not presume to know or advice anyone. Other than some political stuff from the Brits this has been exceptional. Particular hat tip to @nativewolf for the recognition of 12Brovo combat engineers my old MOS. I liked to blow stuff up more than build bridges. JK
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
The Winter War was 80 years ago. Folks in the eastern half of the United States were also extremely concerned about Russian aggression just 90 miles from our border 60 tears ago. But the USSR is no more.
Joining NATO now is more about leaning on Moscow politically than it is an actual safety need for Finland. That's all I was saying. If you can cut a deal that says Putin leaves and the NATO indoctrination gets put on the back burner.....that's a total victory IMO.
I'll leave you guys to your war-porn thread, my apologies for walking in uninvited!
As for fossil fuels, I think y'all are dramatically underestimating the impact of peak oil demand. The world should be coming to the realization it's passed within 3-36 months. The fallout will be beyond insane, and Russia is 46% oil & gas. The whole place is gonna implide, along with the Saudis.
Joining NATO now is more about leaning on Moscow politically than it is an actual safety need for Finland. That's all I was saying. If you can cut a deal that says Putin leaves and the NATO indoctrination gets put on the back burner.....that's a total victory IMO.
I'll leave you guys to your war-porn thread, my apologies for walking in uninvited!
As for fossil fuels, I think y'all are dramatically underestimating the impact of peak oil demand. The world should be coming to the realization it's passed within 3-36 months. The fallout will be beyond insane, and Russia is 46% oil & gas. The whole place is gonna implide, along with the Saudis.
Joining NATO for Finland is all about our national security. Putin is not rational, he could have easily enough decided to invade Finland first and then Ukraine.
Main reason for past neutrality here has been all those Russian-supported politicians. For most of the soviet era we had russia's puppet president, Kekkonen, he ruled over 25 years! Laws were changed to allow this lenghty rule.
Funny thing about those air raid/bomb shelters: I'm so used to them, that I always thought all developed countries had enough large bomb shelters for all the people. Guess that's not the case
Finnish law requires that every housing complex larger than 1200m2 has to build a private air raid shelter, that has to account for at least 2% of the housing area.
Main reason for past neutrality here has been all those Russian-supported politicians. For most of the soviet era we had russia's puppet president, Kekkonen, he ruled over 25 years! Laws were changed to allow this lenghty rule.
Funny thing about those air raid/bomb shelters: I'm so used to them, that I always thought all developed countries had enough large bomb shelters for all the people. Guess that's not the case
Finnish law requires that every housing complex larger than 1200m2 has to build a private air raid shelter, that has to account for at least 2% of the housing area.
The oil market is so tightly matched to supply and demand that a sudden shift in either causes large ripples. We remember what happened in early 2020 when some oil contracts were trading for negative numbers, but the decline in demand from electrification is more predictable.
There are also signs the Saudis are seeing a decline in production. They have quietly been implementing secondary recovery for a decade. The Saudis haven't blown the oil money like some countries have and they are investing in infrastructure with the oil money.
Countries like Russia are very dependent on oil money to keep the oligarchs in luxury yachts. They are blowing the oil money just like Spain blew all the riches from the New World they plundered. The gold ran out and the country was left a shadow of its former glory.
When the oil supply is more than the demand, the more expensive to produce oil gets shut in until the cheaper oil runs out or demand goes up again. Unfortunately for the US, a lot of that expensive oil is American. With the world deliberately shunning Russian oil as much as possible, the US oil is beginning to flow again, but American oil companies shut in a lot of production during the pandemic.
Much of the world may shun Russian oil for at least a while and if Russia falls into chaos or has a civil war, the flow may be cut off anyway. That will keep up demand for more marginal oil from other sources, but only if the price stays high. If the price of oil drops too much the more expensive oil will cost more to produce than its worth and producers won't pump it, then the world is back on Russian oil if it's available.
I think most people who understand the oil market know that we have hit peak oil, but demand is not going to drop like a rock, it's going to be a slow, steady decline that will get a little sharper as more electric cars become available, but it still won't drop like a rock. There is also a demand floor that we will hit until new technologies can replace oil for all forms of transportation.
The oil companies can make money just fine with less demand. Less demand means the known reserves they have will last longer and they have less work to do finding more oil. The biggest costs for oil companies is finding and then bringing the oil to market. Pumping it out of the ground and getting it into gas tanks has costs too, but they are small compared to the development costs.
The oil companies know they aren't going to die off anytime soon. They will eventually have to downscale operations, but there will be plenty of refineries near the end of life that can be torn down as they aren't needed and the oil company doesn't need to build another one to replace it.
For the next 20 years or so the primary losers in the decline of oil usage will be employees in the development arms of the business and some producers who hold leases on marginal oil wells that cost too much to produce. The companies will likely ride out the decline with little trouble and probably not all that much decline in profits.
BTW, my sister has been a Petroleum Geologist since 1980.
Joining NATO for Finland is all about our national security. Putin is not rational, he could have easily enough decided to invade Finland first and then Ukraine.
Main reason for past neutrality here has been all those Russian-supported politicians. For most of the soviet era we had russia's puppet president, Kekkonen, he ruled over 25 years! Laws were changed to allow this lenghty rule.
Funny thing about those air raid/bomb shelters: I'm so used to them, that I always thought all developed countries had enough large bomb shelters for all the people. Guess that's not the case
Finnish law requires that every housing complex larger than 1200m2 has to build a private air raid shelter, that has to account for at least 2% of the housing area.
The USSR/Russia has wanted any country on their borders to be vassal states. Their control of Finland was less harsh than the Warsaw Pact countries. Wikipedia even has an article called Finalandization
Finlandization - Wikipedia
Russia has done that to Belarus for 30 years and they did it to Ukraine until early 2014.
There is a part of the war in Ukraine that is about oil (too many wars are). In 2014 large deposits of natural gas and some oil were found off the Ukrainian coast. The Russians took Crimea and Donbas shortly after the discovery. Ever since Putin has been plotting to turn Ukraine into a land locked country so Russia could develop those gas fields and keep the money.
That's why Putin has been so obsessed with capturing Odesa, he want's to take all Ukrainian ports before the end of the war. There are still news stories about how the Russians plan to take the remaining Ukrainian coast and link up with their troops in Moldova. It's about as realistic as conquering New York City at this point, but the Russians are still talking about it.
Finland doesn't have resources Russia wants and it has been much more circumspect in dealing with Russia than Ukraine the last 8 years. Russia probably had no plans to invade Finland. Or if they did, it was way down the list. The only thing Russia would get from conquering Finland would be a buffer zone north of St Petersburg.
The US built bomb shelters in the 1950s because of the threat of nuclear war. The shelters were stocked with rations for people stuck down there for weeks in the event of a war. I saw the civil defense shelter logos around Los Angeles when I was a kid, but I've never been down in one.
In the 1980s the government realized that the shelters were useless and started closing them down. They donated the rations to charities and my mother worked with one that was distributing the food to the needy. A couple of cans got damaged and my mother brought them home. They were 2-3 L cans that were sealed to last. Inside and out they had some heavy duty paint on them to keep them from rusting. Thinking about it now, it was probably lead based paint.
We opened a tin of what were crackers and I ate a couple. They were around 35 years old and still edible. They weren't very tasty though.
Haven't thought about that for years.
@wdolson I would caution about making any statement about oil demand and supply. Experts ability to predict price, supply and demand has been horrible. It's why traders can make fortunes. Right now there is enough oil. SA and UAE don't want to pump it. Just one little unexpected bit of supply could tip the market into a crash...say if Iran is given a green light to pump. Prior to Russias invasion and the pandemic Exxon and Chevron were on a tour trying to convince investors to fund their exploration projects. Exxon in particular is basically shutting itself. Neither were at all healthy and that's why investors have been so difficult to find. Once the tipping point becomes EU and USA aggregate oil demand falling year on year than the oil industry is going to have to change dramatically.
We'll see China become much more invested in the Middle East. SA in particular might tilt over to China as a backer. If it does so it will have to pick a side, Sunni vs Shia. Will be interesting...will be interesting.
We'll see China become much more invested in the Middle East. SA in particular might tilt over to China as a backer. If it does so it will have to pick a side, Sunni vs Shia. Will be interesting...will be interesting.
bobby g
Member
If only one in a hundred of the Russian nukes worked lots of people are screwed. Make that one in five hundred.
bobby g
Member
They were fortunate to get any back. Remember what happened to German POW's - slave labor for years.
Oh, an earlier comment about the Russians defeating Napoleon, I'd put it at 1% Russian army and the rest to Russian winter and starvation. I think most casualties were on the way home after sacking Moscow
bobby g
Member
Shia are a minority and while Iran and Iraq have both oil and Shia, Indonesia and the rest of the middle East are mostly Sunni work oil
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Where the oil is in Saudi Arabia is where Shia tribes live.
And Syria is controlled by non-Shia non-Sunni but Shia aligned Aliwites.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
That does not give the right flavor.
It would be like saying that the Lutheran and Anglican churches are aligned. The more important point is that they are both Protestant. So far as I know, the Shi'i and Alawaites do not accuse each other of being heretics.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
The Shia used to accuse Alawites of heresy.
Until Iran's clerics wanted an alliance. And said they were an offshoot of Shia.
Much like the Nazis gave the Japanese an Aryan ancestry.
Alawites make Mohammed's grandson Ali a Jesus Christ type divine figure.
Here is Wiki has to say
"Alawites identify as a separate ethnoreligious group. The Quran is only one of their holy books and texts, and their interpretation thereof has very little in common with the Shia Muslim interpretation but is in accordance with the early Batiniyya and other ghulat sects. Alawite theology and rituals break from mainstream Shia Islam in several important ways. For one, the Alawites drink wine as Ali's transubstantiated essence in their rituals; while other Muslims abstain from alcohol, Alawites are encouraged to drink socially in moderation. Finally, some of them believe in reincarnation, but it is not essential in their doctrine.
Alawites have historically kept their beliefs secret from outsiders and non-initiated Alawites, so rumours about them have arisen. Arabic accounts of their beliefs tend to be partisan (either positively or negatively). However, since the early 2000s, Western scholarship on the Alawite religion has made significant advances. At the core of Alawite belief is a divine triad, comprising three aspects of the one God. These aspects, or emanations, appear cyclically in human form throughout history."
It seems to me Alawism is to Shia what Mormonism is to mainstream Christianity.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
BTW Before the Syrian civil war Sunni Arabs were 74% of the population and Alawis 10%.
Today it is 49% Sunni Arab and 17% Alawis. The rest being Sunni Kurds, various Christians, Druze, Turkmen and other minorities.
Today it is 49% Sunni Arab and 17% Alawis. The rest being Sunni Kurds, various Christians, Druze, Turkmen and other minorities.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Finland's president describes his latest talk with Putin
An interesting look at Helsinki's bomb shelters. I like the way they made them into useful structures during peacetime to help defray the costs
An interesting look at Helsinki's bomb shelters. I like the way they made them into useful structures during peacetime to help defray the costs
