Russia/Ukraine conflict

[madodel]

There's about two months of reasonable campaigning time left before Winter really closes in. Clearly the Russian troops are struggling with basic stuff, such as suitable clothing. Let's hope Ukraine can make good use of that time.

Then the AFU can offer the Russians a warm bed, meal and clothing if they surrender.

Also Ukrainian Armed Forces sink Russian barge carrying military equipment and personnel Operational Command Pivden (South)

"[Ukrainian forces] have established fire control over the enemy’s transport routes, logistical hubs, manoeuvres and redeployment, bases and command points. As a result, the occupiers’ plans to restore the capacity of the Antonivka rail bridge, which they were trying to repair, have been thwarted.​

​

[Ukrainian forces] also destroyed one ship from [Russia’s] alternative fleet: a barge which the occupiers were using to transport weapons and equipment. The vessel, now with several holes in it, and all of the equipment and personnel on its board, was sent along the same course as the infamous Russian warship [a reference to ‘Russian warship, go f*** yourself’; that was the reply of Ukrainian border guards who defended Zmiinyi (Snake) Island, when Russian Black Sea Fleet vessel ordered them to surrender - ed.]."​

 

[wdolson]

There's about two months of reasonable campaigning time left before Winter really closes in. Clearly the Russian troops are struggling with basic stuff, such as suitable clothing. Let's hope Ukraine can make good use of that time.

Closing the Kharkhiv front also closed the area most affected by winter. Kherson and Donbas freeze in the winter, but not as hard as in the north. Crimean winters are relatively mild. The Russians succeeded in the south in February because the ground wasn't anywhere near as muddy as the north.

The one place the Russians are still trying to be on the offensive is western Donesk. If the Ukrainians take a good chunk of Luhansk from the north that will likely set off another panic among the Donesk troops. A collapse of Donesk and Luhank would have the same effect of cutting rail links as an offensive from Zaproriizhia would. With only the Kerch bridges to supply everyone in Ukraine that would put a major strain on their forces, especially if the Ukrainians start bombarding the Kerch Strait bridges.

 

[iPlug]

We have discussed the pros/cons of the West potentially sending longer range weapons to Ukraine than HIMARS. One possibility I don't think has been mentioned in this thread is that Ukraine may have some capabilities in the not-to-distant future.

Although currently an anti-ship cruise missile, it would not be surprising to see them upgrade/modify their Neptune platform to strike the Kerch bridge if this war drags on long enough. Probably with some guidance they could increase the payload, range, and targeting accuracy. They have proven themselves quite resourceful and adaptable.

 

[wdolson]

We have discussed the pros/cons of the West potentially sending longer range weapons to Ukraine than HIMARS. One possibility I don't think has been mentioned in this thread is that Ukraine may have some capabilities in the not-to-distant future.

Although currently an anti-ship cruise missile, it would not be surprising to see them upgrade/modify their Neptune platform to strike the Kerch bridge if this war drags on long enough. Probably with some guidance they could increase the payload, range, and targeting accuracy. They have proven themselves quite resourceful and adaptable.

The Russians have set up decoys around the Kerch Strait bridges as a defense for anti-shipping missiles. The Ukrainians are smart about modifying weapons. They could come up with some way around the decoys. If I were them I would be looking to replace the ship seeking circuitry with GPS guided circuitry.

 

[iPlug]

Two last words: svatove , strarobils

Looks like more progress for Ukraine on the east side of the Oskil river.

~200 Russian occupiers reported as killed earlier today as the result of an explosion at a bus station that had been converted into what sounds to be barracks.

About 200 occupiers killed in the explosion in Svatove in Luhansk Oblast – Head of Luhansk Oblast Military Administration


Not just the eastern Kupyansk side of the Oskil river, but Ukraine claims to control the eastern side of Oskil as well now:

Ukrainian forces crossed the Oskil River in the northeastern Kharkiv region and now control both banks of the river, the country’s military said Sunday.

September 18, 2022 Russia-Ukraine news

 

[wdolson]

Looks like more progress for Ukraine on the east side of the Oskil river.

~200 Russian occupiers reported as killed earlier today as the result of an explosion at a bus station that had been converted into what sounds to be barracks.

About 200 occupiers killed in the explosion in Svatove in Luhansk Oblast – Head of Luhansk Oblast Military Administration


Not just the eastern Kupyansk side of the Oskil river, but Ukraine claims to control the eastern side of Oskil as well now:

Ukrainian forces crossed the Oskil River in the northeastern Kharkiv region and now control both banks of the river, the country’s military said Sunday.

September 18, 2022 Russia-Ukraine news

The Russians are running out of natural barriers.

A Wagner Group warehouse went up in flames
https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/09...ther-russian-base-in-occupied-luhansk-oblast/

War Translated has a lot of these intercepted calls

https://twitter.com/x/status/1571603154248007690

A common theme I've seen is soldiers reporting that there unit is down to a handful of soldiers. One a couple of weeks back said he was the only one left in his entire platoon. It's possible that they are translating calls from shattered units only, but there are a lot of them.

I was reading a few weeks ago that Russian commanders try to look good by lying about there losses. The consequence of that is Moscow may think a unit is at 2/3 strength when they are really at 5%. On top of that officer casualties have been high. Some of the intercepted phone calls talk about BTGs with no officers. Moscow may be giving orders to units but there is nobody left to receive them.

Some units may be in good shape, but this looks like an army in disintegration to me. Soon Russia is not going to have an army capable of anything. It may exist ob paper but is functionally defunct. That's bad news for the Kremlin if unrest breaks out around the country. Once local police get overwhelmed there will be nothing to stop protesters.

 

[nativewolf]

The Russians have set up decoys around the Kerch Strait bridges as a defense for anti-shipping missiles. The Ukrainians are smart about modifying weapons. They could come up with some way around the decoys. If I were them I would be looking to replace the ship seeking circuitry with GPS guided circuitry.

Lots of ways to take out a bridge. Frankly I would think they'd want to wait a bit on that though as you'll want to have an escape route so that you can funnel them. If they cant get over the kerch than they'll have to try to go north along sea of azov and maybe that's where you want to cut things, maybe you want to funnel them into crimea and then blow the bridge and leave russia trying to feed/supply 100k by air while interdicting air. I imagine if UKR seems to be advancing into crimea that a sizable number of citizens flee to russia. Could be quite a traffic jam on that bridge.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1571795379246563328

Russian saying that UKR is fixing russians in a line between (roughly) Lyman and Donetsk by accumulating reserves in several concentrations leaving russia unable to respond (which indicates a certain amount of weakness in both russia manpower, intelligence, and material. 2nd largest airforce in the world and they can't interdict troop concentrations 60 miles from russia proper. In that area it's just a hop and skip to russia.

 

[lolachampcar]

I watched a bit on YouTube the other day detailing many reasons Ukraine may want to leave the bridge intact. The primary thrust was to give a path to retreat so forces are not cornered and must fight to the death and for future economic activity after the war. The video made a lot of good points for leaving the bridge alone.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Diversify away from Russian fossil fuels! President von der Leyen warns

 

[SwTslaGrl]

...a "powerful explosion" just 300 metres (985 feet) from its reactors.

Kyiv accuses Russia of strike on southern nuclear plant

Kyiv accused Russia on Monday of attacking Ukraine's second-largest nuclear plant in the south of the war-scarred country, the latest burst of fighting around atomic facilities that has raised fears…

www.france24.com

 

[wdolson]

Lots of ways to take out a bridge. Frankly I would think they'd want to wait a bit on that though as you'll want to have an escape route so that you can funnel them. If they cant get over the kerch than they'll have to try to go north along sea of azov and maybe that's where you want to cut things, maybe you want to funnel them into crimea and then blow the bridge and leave russia trying to feed/supply 100k by air while interdicting air. I imagine if UKR seems to be advancing into crimea that a sizable number of citizens flee to russia. Could be quite a traffic jam on that bridge.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1571795379246563328

Russian saying that UKR is fixing russians in a line between (roughly) Lyman and Donetsk by accumulating reserves in several concentrations leaving russia unable to respond (which indicates a certain amount of weakness in both russia manpower, intelligence, and material. 2nd largest airforce in the world and they can't interdict troop concentrations 60 miles from russia proper. In that area it's just a hop and skip to russia.

But there is also evidence the Russians are not going to be able to hold Luhansk. The Ukrainians are already across pretty much the last natural obstacle for an assault on Luhansk from the north. The terrain makes it very difficult to defend Luhansk and Donesk from an assault from the north. If the Donbas front collapses the Russians will only have one corridor to supply all their forces in occupied Ukraine: the Kerch Strait. If the Ukrainians then take out the bridge the entire Russian expeditionary army (virtually the entire army at this point) is trapped in Ukraine with no way out. Something the Germans did around Kiev (Kyiv) in 1941. In that siege 600,000 Soviet troops died or were captured.

Russian air power has been pathetic. The Ukrainians went right up to the Russian border with HMMVs and Bushmasters (not even very well armored vehicles) within a few miles of Russian air bases across the border and the Russian air force did nothing.

This week's Perun video (linked above) outlines how bad the Russian response to the offensive was. The most elite armor unit in Russia, the 1st Guards Armor Division basically gave up without a fight in Izium. The Russians are now trying to hold the line with the newly formed 3rd Army Corps which is supposed to be made up of 16,000 volunteers, but there is a lot of evidence they didn't get anywhere near that many men. Maybe as little as 4000. Almost all the men are middle aged and they got no training because they got all the trainers killed in Ukraine. They have the best equipment suspected to be scrounged fron the Moscow parade troops, but they have no trained specialists, few officers with any experience, and no training. Ukraine will probably be getting some highly polished T-90s soon.

The Ukrainians would be smart to isolate the Russians and starve them out. That keeps casualties down.

I watched a bit on YouTube the other day detailing many reasons Ukraine may want to leave the bridge intact. The primary thrust was to give a path to retreat so forces are not cornered and must fight to the death and for future economic activity after the war. The video made a lot of good points for leaving the bridge alone.

On the other hand the more damage Ukraine does to the Russian army, the less likely they will ever come back. Cut off the army and starve them out and all Russian equipment ends up either destroyed to prevent capture or captured by the Ukrainians.

 

[nativewolf]

It was interesting that Kharkiv counter offense was the first time they captured a working t90m (latest/greatest). Also interesting that the crew had wrapped it in a anti radar heat shield tarp to hide it. The radar thing is interesting, they have lots of anti radar/anti laser stuff. It seems the idea of drones and GPS has not quite sunk in to the ruskies.

re the bridge...pretty much all military tactic and strategy lessons would say leave the russians a bolt hole and let them isolate themselves there, OTOH UKR really wants it back so they'll need to have away to clear it, in which case better to blow the bridge and get the russians to retreate north along the sea of azov. Sort of depends on what the long term goals are. In any case rusia is building defense lines on the land bridge to Crimea. They seem prepared for the loss of Kherson. I could definately see the premier airborne units (whats left) being pulled out of Kherson in the next week or so.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

The Dolly Parton or Tina Turner of Russia is openly criticizing the war after her husband was named a "foreign agent".

Iconic Russian singer asks to be named 'foreign agent'

Iconic Russian singer Alla Pugacheva, hugely popular since Soviet times, says she wants to be placed on Russia’s foreign agents list in solidarity with her husband who has been designated as one

abcnews.go.com

 

[petit_bateau]

Rail matters

Thread by @warnerta on Thread Reader App

@warnerta: A thread on Russia's rail supply lines to its occupying forces in Ukraine - how these have been affected by the recent Kharkiv offensive, and what's likely to happen next if, as I expect, Ukraine moves...…

threadreaderapp.com

 

[iPlug]

Crude oil prices continue to recede, decreasing Putin’s main instrument for financing his war. On top of this, he is forced to sell at a steep discount to China/India. Long economic game looking more precarious for him.


Brent Crude:

Urals Crude:

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Is it just me or is Rocky 4 on TV every day since August?

That's how you take down the Russians.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

As I remember it there wasn't any 'news' – it's more of a summary of everything this far. And the title is a little misleading IMO – he talks about the Dictators navy – but that is just one part of it.

.../ A lot has happened in the war since our last episode; join General Hodges as he expertly walks through the latest battlefield updates and what the Free World can expect to come next. We offer an inside look at how Ukraine succeeded in its most recent counteroffensive, the roots of Russian soldiers’ unwillingness to fight, Ukraine’s ability to wage an asymmetric war successfully, and what continued international support for Ukraine should look like. /...

 

[petit_bateau]

Yarova and Bilorhivka both retaken

 

[Doggydogworld]

I watched a bit on YouTube the other day detailing many reasons Ukraine may want to leave the bridge intact. The primary thrust was to give a path to retreat so forces are not cornered and must fight to the death and for future economic activity after the war. The video made a lot of good points for leaving the bridge alone.

He had to stretch to get a nice, round number of reasons. Especially the post-war stuff -- only the main span with the steel superstructure would be difficult to repair. That's only a couple hundred meters out of a nearly 20 km bridge. Ukraine would instead hit the long flat-deck parts on either side of the main span.

But he finishes strong. Ukraine must cut the land bridge to win. Cutting the Kerch bridge first only makes that harder. On the other hand, cut the land bridge and it's over in the south because both sides know the Kerch bridge is indefensible.

 

[nativewolf]

I could see many civilians wanting to leave to, I think they'd leave the bridge open and make the towns a bit hot to encourage the die hard russian supporters to find another home.

Long term there is some truth to the fact that there is a large population of native russian speakers In many videos after Izium the villagers were speaking russian. Ukraine needs a path forward like the Amnesty worked out by Mandela for SA. They need to rebuild these area and integrate these oblasts into Ukraine by pulling them in vs punitive means. My $0.02. I don't want to see a west bank or ireland