BitJam
Active Member
12 minute summary of the situation:
Anders often provides good insights. For example he says it may be best for Ukraine to not take over Kherson in order to force Russia to keep expending resources there.
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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
KBF
Model X owner (formerly Cdn Signature Model S)
The only way this vote means anything is if it comes with teeth. For example, Russia losing its place on the Security Council and all veto rights.
If he would listen. I'm not sure he would.
It is kind of ironic that the US is like that. The US has taken on the role as the world's cop. Though it has also used its military to push around other countries too. The system the US has leads to inconsistent foreign policy.
Ukraine is already headed down that road. Since 2014 with the west's influence they were cracking down on corruption and strengthening their democracy. during the war they have been very careful to follow the Geneva Convention. I think that will continue after the war. They have wanted to be part of the west since 1991 and this war has shifted public opinion from around a 55% desire to a 99% desire.
Prighozhin is still above ground. He's Putin's biggest threat right now.
My partner has a masters in Psych and knows PDs quite well. Her mother was a borderline and her ex-BIL was antisocial. She thinks Putin is a mix of antisocial and narcissistic, with more antisocial than narcissistic.
A key characteristic of borderline is splitting. A group or individual will be the greatest thing on Earth one minute and the devil's spawn the next. There is a book about borderlines written by an engineering professor in Michigan who wrote the book out of her research trying to figure out why her sister was as messed up as she was. It's called Evil Genes. She talks about research about where borderline comes from. It appears to be a mix of nature and nurture.
Some people are born with an instability in their emotion centers. They have emotions just bubble up out of nowhere for no particular reason. If the person was raised in a fairly stable family, they can be emotionally labile, prone to emotional outbursts, but they live in the same reality as the rest of the world. When they calm down they usually realize they were being unreasonable.
However if someone has that wiring and is abused as a child, they often develop a borderline personality disorder, when emotions fire off randomly, they make up a story for why they are feeling that way and act on it.
I haven't seen similar work on antisocial personality disorders, but I think it's more nature than nurture. My partner's ex-BIL was raised the same as his brother (my partner's ex). Their father took off when the younger brother was an infant (he has psychological problems too), but their mother remarried a lawyer who was a workaholic, but a fairly stable person. The boys were raised by their mother and grandmother who were both very nurturing. My partner's ex was a very attentive mate. He had a bad case of unmedicated ADD and Peter Pan Syndrome (he was emotionally able 15), but he was always there for her. His brother was a psycho who tried to kill his brother with a gun when they were teenagers and kidnapped his son from his first marriage when he was an infant. The ex-BIL then threatened to kill his nephew.
The ex-BIL hated his brother and my partner with a passion. Fortunately he also had severe OCD and would not leave San Mateo County, CA. Since both of them live here in the Northwest, they were safe. When their mother died he took his inheritance and burned through it in a few years. When the money ran out he hung himself in a park in the county. The police were baffled and initially investigated it as a murder because he had a fairly new Honda Odyssey and top shelf camping gear from REI, but he was homeless and broke.
Many Psychologists now think Hitler was a malignant narcissist (the most dangerous form of NPD) and that a certain ex-US president is the same, though the latter less prone to violence. Putin has less of the "look at me" thing going on than those other people, but he does like the attention he gets as president to some degree. He's much more interested in power and complete control over Russia and its neighbors.
BTW I was reading the Elon thread on the forum yesterday and something hit me. Elon's behavior with his peace proposal is almost exactly Nevil Chamberlain's from 1938. Hitler can have part of Czechoslovakia with promises from Hitler that he wouldn't take any more. Elon's proposal is almost exactly the same thing with Ukraine.
One difference was Germany's military power was rising in 1938 and they were militarily capable of invading their neighbors. Russia is militarily on the decline. It was happening before the war, but the war dropped a brick on the accelerator pedal. I do not think Russia should be rewarded in any way which is why I believe Ukraine should get all its territory back ASAP, but Russia's ability to come back and take the rest of the country would be difficult.
The Russian army is extremely unprofessional at this point and it probably will not get better. I think we will continue hearing about nukes for much longer as Russian troops retreat further. I have a huge urge to buy the dip in TSLA but it seems that Fed meeting November 1-2 and this war will be dictating market movements.
Yup. That driver is an idiot.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Did you see the guy in the video sitting on behind the vehicle? Someone looks like they survived, but got their bell REALLY rung (probably deaf after that).
Yeah, clip jumps, couldn’t tell who that was.
In my Afghanistan deployment we often treated soldiers in the ICU from injuries when their armored MRAPs rolled over buried Taliban IEDs. The armor protected them from any shrapnel or penetrating injury from the blast. But the kinetic energy was enough to launch the vehicle upwards and give them spinal compression fractures, some quite serious.
Probably some TBI from that sort of blast as well. That damage frequently takes awhile to reveal itself.
My first job post-grad school was doing dynamic finite element model simulations of IED blasts under MRAP and studying how to design interior / seating to reduce those sort of injuries. And verifying crazy kinematic data from real blasts where the vehicles rotated in air
RobStark
Well-Known Member
France will not trade nuclear strikes with Russia over Ukraine
French President Emmanuel Macron says he intends to avoid 'global war'
www.thenationalnews.com
nwdiver
Well-Known Member
France will not trade nuclear strikes with Russia over Ukraine
French President Emmanuel Macron says he intends to avoid 'global war'
I'm sure that's a huge relief to Putin, haha. It's good that Macron is trying to keep the
communication channels with Russia open, I suppose. So long as he doesn't give any "Peace for our time" speeches.
That first overhead shot gives a good sense of the distance between the road and rail bridges. The video of the explosion itself showed that it was an absolutely gigantic amount of explosive used, but to ignite rail cars that far away.... that truck was completely freighted.
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
This is from the Russian FSB propaganda machine, so take it as you may, but their official claim is that the explosives were hidden in rolls of ABS (Acrylonitrile Butadiene Styrene) edge banding. There were two trucks that did the operation (DAF truck was x-rayed):
Cargo was transferred to an International ProStar truck that went on the bridge and was only searched, not x-rayed:
Fact Check: Did Russia's FSB share fake x-ray of Crimea bridge blast truck?
Cargo was transferred to an International ProStar truck that went on the bridge and was only searched, not x-rayed:
Fact Check: Did Russia's FSB share fake x-ray of Crimea bridge blast truck?
The video shows the back door of the MT-LB mangled and thrown further from the vehicle than where the guy is crouching. The pressure wave inside that thing must have been insanely high.
In Afghanistan Russian soldiers took to riding on top of MT-LBs and BMPs because even if hit with relatively small weapons, the interiors became death traps. The MT-LB only has 7-8 mm of armor in most places and probably virtually nothing underneath. The BMP-1 has 33mm of armor on the main gun mantlet, but much of the rest of the vehicle has 6 mm armor. The BMP-2 has slightly less armor.
All those videos of Ukrainians taking out Russian IFVs and APCs with anti-tank weapons is sort of like hitting an egg with a sledge hammer.
Many Russian vehicles were designed to protect the crew from radiation more than enemy fire. At the time they were designed (1960s), Soviet doctrine was to open a hole in the enemy line with tactical nukes, then the mobile units pour through the gap. With the enemy barbecued from the nuke, the biggest danger was dealing with the radiation.
It's not unusual for IFVs and APCs to be lightly protected. The US Bradley has aluminum armor ranging from 14.5 to 30 mm, but with experience of IEDs in Iraq and Afghanistan, a lot of work went into better crew protection from below. The vehicle might be destroyed, but crew survivablility is much higher.
France will not trade nuclear strikes with Russia over Ukraine
French President Emmanuel Macron says he intends to avoid 'global war'
The US hasn't directly said whether it would use nukes in retaliation, but from what spokespeople have said it sounds like the first US reaction would likely be conventional. Basically destroy all Russian hardware larger truck sized or bigger in the theater.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
There is no advantage to rule out nuclear retaliation beforehand.
Especially when you don't have the conventional forces to make a difference.
It is almost inviting Putin to nuke Ukraine.
There are no "spokespeople" from the US Government commenting on the matter. The ones that have issued threats of what we would do are retired soldiers and spooks. Plausible deniability.
The first reaction would be conventional and a cyber attack. But the US wisely doesn't rule out nuking Moscow. Make them worry about it.
