More likely that they have some good intelligence on just how poorly the fight is going for Russia right now.
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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Ukraine should add Putin's 2 eldest daughters must be turned over to Ukraine where they become Presidential Palace Chambermaids for Life.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
They've made a special outreach to all the open source intel guys to not reveal data, an even harder push on the opsec front. I found that telling. For what it is worth russian telegram channels have been reporting an uptick of strikes on air defense system in Zap along the Sea of Azov.
Russia mined all the roads in and out of Svatove. Russia is very good at minefield construction and that is how they really won the battle in Grozny at the end. Tricked the Chechens into retreating into a minefield.
Probably can't get Ukraine enough mine resistant vehicles at this juncture.
Tiger
Active Member
Perun agrees, very difficult to protect so many cities and high value targets, but we need to try, Ukraine is running low on air defense.
petit_bateau
Active Member
I guess we ought to respect their request :
But on the other hand this definitely means there is another reason to desire regime change in Iran
ElectricIAC
Good-Natured Rascal
Frankly, I think U.S. intelligence had a pretty good idea of the woeful state of Russia’s military. However, that truth would undermine feeding the Military-Industrial Complex monster that holds so much sway over American politics and foreign policy. Just watch. As Russia is collapsing before our eyes like a slow motion car crash, the MICMonster is ramping up its anti-China rhetoric in order to continue feeding its voracious appetite."This article launches an overdue discussion on the latter question, regarding the exaggeration of Russian military power and under-playing of Ukrainian capabilities."
How Western Experts Got the Ukraine War So Wrong | Geopolitical Monitor
An outdated propensity to equate Ukraine with Russia lies at the heart of a long list of flawed geopolitical analyses leading up to the Ukraine war.www.geopoliticalmonitor.com
I’m not saying China does not pose a threat, but the MICMonster must inflate that risk as concerns over Russian hegemony fade in the face of the pathetic reality of its capabilities.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Russia is desperate if they are buying Iranian-made missiles. Not exactly known for their accuracy (nothing new for the Russians there).
hacer
Active Member
This had everything to do with the advanced antiaircraft VTFuze shell developed at the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory. Before that it was nearly impossible for a naval gun to down an aircraft. With that it was like shooting fish in a barrel. It is every bit comparable to the difference between modern guided munitions in howitzers vs the Russian's 1943 artillery. The Russians can fire 10,000 rounds and never hit their target, it only takes one round from a guided munition to hit the target.
The Japanese air force was technologically defeated by superior weaponry. It had nothing to do with lack of skill, training, exhaustion, strategy or anything else.
petit_bateau
Active Member
I don't think one should be too blase about these missiles re accuracy. Both the Fateh-series and the Zolfagar derivative use GPS/GLONASS for guidance and the more modern ones also seem to have sensor-based terminal guidance.
It is worth discriminating between reliability and accuracy. The Fateh seem sufficiently reliable and reasonably accurate. The Zolfagar seems less reliable but perhaps more accurate.
Accounts and assessments do vary on this subject. For example in 2017 the Zholfagar may have had anywhere from 2/6 near misses to 4/6 hits:
But in the most recent 2022 use they appear to have hit their target building(s):
/cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/7M2LA7DHMVLT5GSHU45H3RTSL4.jpg)
Thirteen reported killed as Iran Revolutionary Guards target dissident sites in Iraq
Iran's Revolutionary Guards said on Wednesday they fired missiles and drones at militant targets in the Kurdish region of neighbouring northern Iraq, where authorities said 13 people were killed.
www.reuters.com
And the Iranian 'suicicide' drones have bang-on accuracy quite frequently, certainly within a meter or so.
The ranges are also pretty good, between 300km and 750km.
If the "war of the cities" escalates then Ukraine won't want to just be on the receiving end, and just hitting military targets arounf Belgorod isn't likely to be a satisfactory response.
To put that statement in context it is 474 miles / 762 kilometers / 412 nautical miles from Kiev to Moscow.
Agreed. It's nothing to scoff at. Almost any country these days can develop lethal accurate weapons.I don't think one should be too blase about these missiles re accuracy. Both the Fateh-series and the Zolfagar derivative use GPS/GLONASS for guidance and the more modern ones also seem to have sensor-based terminal guidance.
It is worth discriminating between reliability and accuracy. The Fateh seem sufficiently reliable and reasonably accurate. The Zolfagar seems less reliable but perhaps more accurate.
Accounts and assessments do vary on this subject. For example in 2017 the Zholfagar may have had anywhere from 2/6 near misses to 4/6 hits:
But in the most recent 2022 use they appear to have hit their target building(s):
Thirteen reported killed as Iran Revolutionary Guards target dissident sites in Iraq
Iran's Revolutionary Guards said on Wednesday they fired missiles and drones at militant targets in the Kurdish region of neighbouring northern Iraq, where authorities said 13 people were killed.
And the Iranian 'suicicide' drones have bang-on accuracy quite frequently, certainly within a meter or so.
The ranges are also pretty good, between 300km and 750km.
If the "war of the cities" escalates then Ukraine won't want to just be on the receiving end, and just hitting military targets arounf Belgorod isn't likely to be a satisfactory response.
To put that statement in context it is 474 miles / 762 kilometers / 412 nautical miles from Kiev to Moscow.
Primary and secondary sanctions are hurting the Iranian economy. Iran also not a fan of the West.
Yeah but Russia is also sanctioned so what does it have to give Iran (that it isn't already running short of)? And how can Iran replace its missiles if it is sanctioned?
Primary and secondary sanctions are hurting the Iranian economy. Iran also not a fan of the West.
hacer
Active Member
If Iran exports enough missiles to Russia, I see an opportunity for Israel in the future.
Both Russia and Iran are cut off from Visa and Mastercard. Iran is also completely banned from SWIFT.
As of some months ago Russia had plans to launch a free trade zone with Iran and for Iran to join Russia’s Mir payment system.
It’s unclear if both now have some sanctions evading process in play with immediate payments or that they agreed to future payments or payments in gold reserves.
Iran can likely continue to get non-sophisticated and some sophisticated semiconductors off the black market. Probable where they have been getting them this whole time and sanctions don't appear to have stopped that. (Don't know what chips they are using in their drones and missiles/rockets)
petit_bateau
Active Member
1. Russia has a UN P5 veto. Given the state of the sanctions process (JCPOA) and the likely proximity of Iran to nuclear breakout status that veto would be handy to Iran.
2. Russia has railroads and grain, fertiliser, etc exports and a severe lack of warm water ports. Iran would like the hard cash and further help in building its railroads and ports, plus a handy backup to remind China that Iran has more than one friend.
3. Russia has some interesting technology Iran would like.
(Iran makes its own missiles. Iran has spent so long under sanctions that it knows how to play this game).
(Iran can get funds in and out for commercial purposes that are sanctions-compliant. )
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