Russia/Ukraine conflict

[Artful Dodger]

I wonder if the driver's nap delaying the bridge crossing lessened the damage. If the bomb was ignited at the same level of the rail line would that line seen more damage?

The damage to the rail line wasn't done by the bomb. Fragments from the bomb punctured and ignited the fuel in at least 3 tanker cars. The heat from the resulting fire is what caused the extensive damage to the railroad bridge. Its unclear if that was incredibly good luck, or by design of the attack. Still unanswered as well is the question of if the train was stationary at the time, and if so how long it was sitting there.

 

[BitJam]

Let's talk about Russia's offer in Kherson....

The Russian government says this absolutely does not mean they think they will lose Kherson. This absolutely means the Russian government thinks they're going to lose Kherson. There is no other reason they would do this.

 

[wdolson]

I wonder if the driver's nap delaying the bridge crossing lessened the damage. If the bomb was ignited at the same level of the rail line would that line seen more damage?

The bomb was probably triggered by GPS coordinates rather than time. The cargo was scheduled to be delivered a day earlier. If it had been a time bomb, it would have blown up while the guy was taking the nap.

The damage to the rail line wasn't done by the bomb. Fragments from the bomb punctured and ignited the fuel in at least 3 tanker cars. The heat from the resulting fire is what caused the extensive damage to the railroad bridge. Its unclear if that was incredibly good luck, or by design of the attack. Still unanswered as well is the question of if the train was stationary at the time, and if so how long it was sitting there.

I think Ukrainian special forces have been shutting down rail lines in Crimea for a couple of months. They blow some track and the trains have to stop for a few hours until the track crews get in there and replace the rail. They have probably been doing that for a while to get the Russians used to harassment attacks like that so they didn't think anything else was up.

The Ukrainians probably had a dry run or two to see where on the bridge a train would stop if they blew up tracks fairly close to the exit of the bridge. When they knew the truck was moving towards the bridge, their team blew up the tracks to stop the next train crossing to Crimea. That's the only reason I can think of why the Russians would stop a train on a bridge. A bridge is a choke point and it makes no sense to park a train on a bridge unless the tracks just past the bridge are out.

Some more on Russian logistics situation now that the bridge is disabled. There is also some information about how the rail bridge was built. I think the damaged section is toast. It might be able to handle a few lightly loaded trains, but it's going to start crumbling with regular rail traffic.
Thread by @wartranslated on Thread Reader App

I was thinking about the quality of the new commander in theater. He's known for being a ruthless fighter, but he's never commanded a large operation.

It brings to mind a critique of Irwin Rommel I read several years ago. Rommel was a brilliant division commander, but he fell down on the job in North Africa when he commanded the Afrika Korps. The job of a division commander and a corps commander are different. A division commander is focused on battlefield objectives while a corps commander's job is mostly to ensure each unit has all the supply it needs to get the job. They also have an eagle's view of the battle situation, but their day to day duty is to make sure supply is moving to the right places.

Sergey Surovikin was commander of the Eastern Military District in peacetime. His only experience in high level combat command was in Syria where Russia had 4000 troops committed at their peak. Supplying 4000 troops is very different from supplying 50-150K. Also it appears people hated working under Surovikin. He's notable for being a jerk commander in an army renown for jerk commanders.

Any commander competent with supply would be scrambling right now to ensure forces in the south were getting supply. It appears nothing is being done, Surovikin is just waiting for the Kerch bridge to re-open. Within a week or so the troops in the south are going to hit a supply shortage and even with a maximum effort they may not be able to move in enough supplies to keep the army going.

EDIT:
The Russians are now pulling these out of storage
https://twitter.com/search?q=s-60&src=typed_query

57mm AA guns are WWII technology, though the S-60 is from the 1950s. The S-60 is based on the German 50mm AA gun from WW II. These guns started going out of service in the mid-1960s in favor of missile AA. Thiough they were used in the Iran-Iraq War as well as in Syria (but not by the Russians). They may be trying to neutralize low altitude helicopters, or they may be intending to use them as field guns.

I believe Ufa is the home base of one of the airborne units.

 

[trayloader]

The bomb was probably triggered by GPS coordinates rather than time. The cargo was scheduled to be delivered a day earlier. If it had been a time bomb, it would have blown up while the guy was taking the nap.



I think Ukrainian special forces have been shutting down rail lines in Crimea for a couple of months. They blow some track and the trains have to stop for a few hours until the track crews get in there and replace the rail. They have probably been doing that for a while to get the Russians used to harassment attacks like that so they didn't think anything else was up.

The Ukrainians probably had a dry run or two to see where on the bridge a train would stop if they blew up tracks fairly close to the exit of the bridge. When they knew the truck was moving towards the bridge, their team blew up the tracks to stop the next train crossing to Crimea. That's the only reason I can think of why the Russians would stop a train on a bridge. A bridge is a choke point and it makes no sense to park a train on a bridge unless the tracks just past the bridge are out.

Some more on Russian logistics situation now that the bridge is disabled. There is also some information about how the rail bridge was built. I think the damaged section is toast. It might be able to handle a few lightly loaded trains, but it's going to start crumbling with regular rail traffic.
Thread by @wartranslated on Thread Reader App

I was thinking about the quality of the new commander in theater. He's known for being a ruthless fighter, but he's never commanded a large operation.

It brings to mind a critique of Irwin Rommel I read several years ago. Rommel was a brilliant division commander, but he fell down on the job in North Africa when he commanded the Afrika Korps. The job of a division commander and a corps commander are different. A division commander is focused on battlefield objectives while a corps commander's job is mostly to ensure each unit has all the supply it needs to get the job. They also have an eagle's view of the battle situation, but their day to day duty is to make sure supply is moving to the right places.

Sergey Surovikin was commander of the Eastern Military District in peacetime. His only experience in high level combat command was in Syria where Russia had 4000 troops committed at their peak. Supplying 4000 troops is very different from supplying 50-150K. Also it appears people hated working under Surovikin. He's notable for being a jerk commander in an army renown for jerk commanders.

Any commander competent with supply would be scrambling right now to ensure forces in the south were getting supply. It appears nothing is being done, Surovikin is just waiting for the Kerch bridge to re-open. Within a week or so the troops in the south are going to hit a supply shortage and even with a maximum effort they may not be able to move in enough supplies to keep the army going.

Thank you for the link. Highly interesting. That implies whoever bombed the bridge had made a perfect analysis of their oldschool habits, plus the logistics by truck are now severely slower?

 

[RobStark]

Russia using rape as 'military strategy' in Ukraine: UN envoy | CNN

Russia is using rape and sexual violence as part of its "military strategy" in Ukraine, a UN envoy said this week.

www.cnn.com

 

[Dangerous Fish]

There still seems to be doubt that the train was moving when the explosion on the bridge occurred.
This should help:

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

Russia is very paranoid about protecting the motherland. We all know the US has no territorial intentions on Russia, but one Russia's driving forces to keep the former republics inside the Russian sphere of influence is to serve as a buffer from western invasion. [My underline.] /...

It still annoys me every time you write this line that is coming straight out from the Kremlin propaganda...

1. There is no "Russia" here. The ones in charge are the Dictator and his Mobsters! And any 'ordinary' Russian that would spout this is doing so because they have either been properly brainwashed or because they know that it is the 'safe' thing to say in the Military Dictatorship that they are currently living in.
2. This is the propaganda line that underpins why the Dictator and the Kremlin keeps regurgitating that Ukraine should "demilitarize" and "stay neutral".
3. Russia has NUCLEAR WEAPONS! Who is going to attack Russia? Who?
4. And so what if Kamil Galeev is your source? If so – then someone should point out this very exact same thing to him as well.

 

[petit_bateau]

Russia .... defeat ...... in Russian media .....

Whisper it — Russia Begins to Discuss Defeat

The West needs to be prepared to talk with the Russians about the consequences of the war and what a Kremlin defeat may look like.

cepa.org

 

[bkp_duke]

Russia .... defeat ...... in Russian media .....

Whisper it — Russia Begins to Discuss Defeat

The West needs to be prepared to talk with the Russians about the consequences of the war and what a Kremlin defeat may look like.

cepa.org

If I were Ukraine, I would push this line:
"We'll stop our attacks if you leave all our lands (Donbas, Crimea, etc.) and in exchange we promise not to attack Russia directly. Don't agree to these terms and in trying to get our lands back, we view attacks on your military near our boarders as fair game."

 

[petit_bateau]

If I were Ukraine, I would push this line:
"We'll stop our attacks if you leave all our lands (Donbas, Crimea, etc.) and in exchange we promise not to attack Russia directly. Don't agree to these terms and in trying to get our lands back, we view attacks on your military near our boarders as fair game."

From memory Ukraine has already put its terms on the table:
- Immediate ceasefire by all Russian forces, and proxy forces, whether in Ukraine or in Russia;
- Russia immediately withdrsaws all its forces and proxy forces;
- Russia permanently accepts all of Ukraine to pre-2014 borders, inc Crimea;
- all Russian leases on previous Russian bases (leased from Ukraine, these were in Crimea) are ceased;
- Russia returns all Ukraine population who have been abducted, including PoW and dead;
- Russia to be forced to help rebuild Ukraine (i.e. reparations);
- War trials for war crimes (I'm not sure if I am remembering this bit right);
- Western sanctions should remain in place until the above all completed;
- No future limitations on Ukraine sovereignty, and Ukraine is free to join NATO and EU as it sees fit with no Russian veto;

This gives some background:

Ukraine’s Terms for Peace

As the war enters its fifth month, what does Volodymyr Zelenskyy seek from the war and what concessions can he reasonably make?

cepa.org

 

[ElectricIAC]

From memory Ukraine has already put its terms on the table:
- Immediate ceasefire by all Russian forces, and proxy forces, whether in Ukraine or in Russia;
- Russia immediately withdrsaws all its forces and proxy forces;
- Russia permanently accepts all of Ukraine to pre-2014 borders, inc Crimea;
- all Russian leases on previous Russian bases (leased from Ukraine, these were in Crimea) are ceased;
- Russia returns all Ukraine population who have been abducted, including PoW and dead;
- Russia to be forced to help rebuild Ukraine (i.e. reparations);
- War trials for war crimes (I'm not sure if I am remembering this bit right);
- Western sanctions should remain in place until the above all completed;
- No future limitations on Ukraine sovereignty, and Ukraine is free to join NATO and EU as it sees fit with no Russian veto;

This gives some background:

Ukraine’s Terms for Peace

As the war enters its fifth month, what does Volodymyr Zelenskyy seek from the war and what concessions can he reasonably make?

cepa.org

If that’s the terms, we’re never getting out of this. On that note, can I interest you in some burnt hair perfume?

 

[Singuy]

If that’s the terms, we’re never getting out of this. On that note, can I interest you in some burnt hair perfume?

Sounds like a bunch of terms Russia will ever consider agreeing to if Russia was in ruins, the country is fully occupied by Nato troops, and most people in power are exiled or died.

 

[SwTslaGrl]

"This article launches an overdue discussion on the latter question, regarding the exaggeration of Russian military power and under-playing of Ukrainian capabilities."

How Western Experts Got the Ukraine War So Wrong | Geopolitical Monitor

An outdated propensity to equate Ukraine with Russia lies at the heart of a long list of flawed geopolitical analyses leading up to the Ukraine war.

www.geopoliticalmonitor.com

 

[iPlug]

Wanted to ask for thoughts on how winter may go for each side.

Traditionally, Russian defenders had an advantage in winter as Hitler and Napoleon experienced on their offensive ends. However, no home field advantage (including supply chains) for Russia this time and temps not so cold in Ukraine. Based on current info, the supplied Ukraine winter kit should be quite solid.

Supply chains could continue to deteriorate for Russia this winter. Ukraine continues to improve at removing Russian air defenses, command centers, ammunition depots, fuel storage sites, rail, and now bridges. Also seeing more ammo depots and fuel storage sites on the other side of legal Russian borders exploding more often such as today. Morale goes from bad to worse when it's really cold outside and you are poorly insulated and hungry.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Ideally, some sort of resolution to the fighting can be reached before the onset of winter. We're seeing significant cracks in Russia's military facade, so I'm not convinced that a cease to hostilities before winter is entirely implausible. More likely the fighting will continue well into the winter, though. It will be a difficult winter for all within Ukraine. I do think the Russian military will have a much harder time of it. Both logistically and morale wise.

 

[samppa]

Russians have been there a while by now, I wonder did they bring any winter gear.. troops that are in Donbas mostly arrived during summer.

Russian supply is a mess and they wont be able to deliver proper winter gear for all their soldiers. I wouldn't be surprised if we hear about serious frostbites after weather goes below freezing. Sub zero nights should stsrt happening soon around Donbass, if not already.

Crimea is more of mediterranian climate, and doesn't really freeze apart from some mountains.

Snow-covered landscape is the guerillas dream fighting ground - so easy to blend in and do some sniping.

 

[nativewolf]

Hmm... Samppa...sounds finnish...hmm...

Russians have been there a while by now, I wonder did they bring any winter gear.. troops that are in Donbas mostly arrived during summer.

Russian supply is a mess and they wont be able to deliver proper winter gear for all their soldiers. I wouldn't be surprised if we hear about serious frostbites after weather goes below freezing. Sub zero nights should stsrt happening soon around Donbass, if not already.

Crimea is more of mediterranian climate, and doesn't really freeze apart from some mountains.

Snow-covered landscape is the guerillas dream fighting ground - so easy to blend in and do some sniping.

Seems some Finnish folks did pretty well sniping in the snow.

 

[iPlug]

Hmm... Samppa...sounds finnish...hmm...

Seems some Finnish folks did pretty well sniping in the snow.

Expanded training of Ukrainian soldiers in Europe has recently been announced, soldiers to be trained in Germany and heard today France.

Perhaps Nordic countries could help train for snow/winter sniper teams.

 

[nativewolf]

historically the russians were pretty good at sniping actually. Ukrainians are famous for good snipers.

 

[madodel]

2 attackers opened fire on volunteer troops preparing to deploy to Ukraine

Sucks to be a Russian conscript and then not even make it out of camp in Russia.