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Another day with very heavy losses for Russia. I think Ukraine are following this advice:
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They are happy keeping current lines, using their superior artillery to pick off poorly equipped Russian. And when given the chance they will move forward, but no stress while Russian is losing so many troops.
It also reminds me of Patton's quote:
“No dumb bastard ever won a war by going out and dying for his country. He won it by making some other dumb bastard die for his country.”
Either way it's playing out on the battlefield, one or both of the quotes are being exercised by Ukraine.
Something big is definitely going on. Ukrainian put out a call for media silence and the OINT guys are keeping mum if they are getting any indication what's going on. We do know the Ukrainians are putting pressure on around Svatove and Kherson. From reading wartranslated Russians are complaining about how accurate Ukrainian artillery is and the newly mobilized troops are taking casualties from artillery, but I doubt that accounts for all the losses the last week.
I'm a bit befuddled by people who are talking about how Russia is going to end this war like the end of the Korean War with a stalemate. The Russian army is in the process of a Lanchester Square Collapse.
The troops are getting restless (like they did in 1917), they are running out of basic equipment, and probably running short of some munitions. Newly mobilized troops are headed to the front are getting rusted out rifles and no other equipment. Not even hand grenades, MANPADS, infantry AT weapons, or anything else. The helmets they are being issued look like they are made of aluminum.
The mobilization has been a disaster. Stories abound of about 200,000 of the mobilized troops are being housed in horrible conditions in Russia and they just sit around because there are no instructors to train them, no equipment for them to train with, and not even basics like sleeping bags. Many intercepted phone calls from people in Ukraine talk about all the officers have either been killed or ran away. Groups of newly mobilized men are sent somewhere and told to hold a position with no leadership and no experienced people who even know how to dig a foxhole. The men complain of only getting fed every 2-3 days with one ration pack per two people. The ration packs are supposed to be one meal for one man. They also get no water so people are drinking from puddles. Some complain that everyone in their unit is sick with something.
The newly mobilized were promised 300,000 rubles, but nobody has seen that. Some are getting 3000-4000 a month (about $40 USD), but they are forced to pay for their food. The ones paid on the frontline are paid with debit cards instead of cash and there are no machines around that take the cards.
Some men who were supposed to be rotated home have been pulled back to the border region and are not allowed to leave.
T-62s that are 60 years old are replacing T-72s, T-80s, and T-90s on the front lines.
Some ancient artillery pieces are being seen too. A video of an artillery piece from WW II era with a wobbly tire under tow was out there a couple of weeks ago. Some other guns made in the 40s or 50s have been seen. The Ukrainians have captured some of them.
The Russian army is in bad shape and getting worse daily. It can't be rebuilt into any effective without pulling units out of combat and going through extensive re-equipment and training combined with manufacturing of enough new equipment for all the mauled units. Something that would take 6 months minimum under optimal conditions, but would take years from where Russia is today. Their army will continue to disintegrate until they leave Ukraine (as long as the west doesn't cut support, which is unlikely).
The Russian army is not an army that's going to be able to hold any land for very long against a determined and well equipped foe who wants it back. Ukraine is moving slowly right now, probably because they are trying to limit casualties (letting artillery attrit the Russians at low cost) and the weather is muddy right now in a lot of places that makes maneuver more difficult.
