khorton
Member
It might say something about their confidence in the bridge that he was in a car this time, vs the heavy truck he drove across the bridge in 2018.
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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
BitJam
Active Member
/cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/AKHGSZM24ROP7HXSY3KWZE2FCE.jpg)
Ukraine appears to expose Russian air defence gaps with long-range strikes
A third Russian airfield was ablaze on Tuesday from a drone strike, a day after Ukraine demonstrated an apparent new ability to penetrate hundreds of kilometers deep into Russian air space with attacks on two Russian air bases.
www.reuters.com
Kind of crazy to see strategic bombers all parked beside each other. Sort of inviting a pearl harbor type thing. Or just a bad mistake or some crazy person and a front end loader.
Maybe that is the airforce solution to getting some more money for the f35, just hoping a schizo finds the empty front end loader with keys that they leave parked by the gate unguarded.
Maybe that is the airforce solution to getting some more money for the f35, just hoping a schizo finds the empty front end loader with keys that they leave parked by the gate unguarded.
petit_bateau
Active Member
That's an entirely normal US force posture during peacetime at a low state of alert. The nuclear deterrent forces are the bit out there quietly doing their stuff, which is why the rest can be relatively relaxed. If the US were to shift to a higher state of alert then a lot of dispersal would take place. Ditto for UK or indeed all NATO+ forces. For the Russians however would have been an unbelievable state of affairs, if we had not already witnessed many other similar assumptions already. Unfortunately - as the recent RUSI report* shows - the Russians are capable of learning from their mistakes and should still not be discounted as adversaries.
* https://static.rusi.org/359-SR-Ukraine-Preliminary-Lessons-Feb-July-2022-web-final.pdf
===========
Meanwhile, closer to home for some of us, the Friends Of Putin league is all too active in the US right wing:
Top US conservatives pushing Russia’s spin on Ukraine war, experts say
Some of the Kremlin’s most blatant falsehoods aimed at undercutting US aid are promoted by major figures on the right
www.theguardian.com
Thread by @TrentTelenko on Thread Reader App
@TrentTelenko: The Drone Revolution in Military Affairs...visual proof...arriving. Dyagilevo airfield, Russia - 2022 ~600 km from Ukrainian border h/t @wartranslated 1/ Khmeimim airbase, Syria - January 2018 2/ The ...…
threadreaderapp.com
Another trent piece on drones marginalizing value of many traditional assets. The sooner NATO really grasps this the better. Ukraine is just starting, give them a year and russia will be facing daily attack.
@petit_bateau I think the war translated piece was interesting on the Engles base. It's the only base in all of Russia with the ability to service the planes. 1 base. There is no space there to disperse them. Good on Ukraine to make it difficult at least.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Ukraine appears to expose Russian air defence gaps with long-range strikes | REUTERS
www.reuters.com
Ukraine appears to expose Russian air defence gaps with long-range strikes
A third Russian airfield was ablaze on Tuesday from a drone strike, a day after Ukraine demonstrated an apparent new ability to penetrate hundreds of kilometers deep into Russian air space with attacks on two Russian air bases.
www.reuters.com
Did you see the giant pile of missiles they have stacked up outside at Engels? I bet that would make a nice loud boom.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Luckily there aren't many schizos wandering around air force bases.
petit_bateau
Active Member
Sorry misunderstanding :Thread by @TrentTelenko on Thread Reader App
@TrentTelenko: The Drone Revolution in Military Affairs...visual proof...arriving. Dyagilevo airfield, Russia - 2022 ~600 km from Ukrainian border h/t @wartranslated 1/ Khmeimim airbase, Syria - January 2018 2/ The ...…
Another trent piece on drones marginalizing value of many traditional assets. The sooner NATO really grasps this the better. Ukraine is just starting, give them a year and russia will be facing daily attack.
@petit_bateau I think the war translated piece was interesting on the Engles base. It's the only base in all of Russia with the ability to service the planes. 1 base. There is no space there to disperse them. Good on Ukraine to make it difficult at least.
I mean disperse away from the home base in smaller units and act very differently there, not just park in a less tidy line on the home base. (The things one needs to really worry about don't leave much of a base behind.) One takes all the necessary people and stuff with one to the dispersed base(s) and keeps moving around as much as is required from then on.
Technically (militarily) what we are observing in this conflict is quite interesting. Much like in the Falklands there is a (very) crude parity of technology quality and quantity between the opposing forces and the conflict is (almost entirely) remaining conventional in nature and is still (to an extent) a limited war.
This last item (limited) is somewhat arguable. For example neither country has put itself onto a 100% war footing though I readily admit that Ukraine is getting quite close - but Ukraine is not attacking Russian bases anywhere in the world, so it is observing some limits.
Anyway I probably digress. Except that it is relevant as Trent Telenko does not seem to have grasped that the full-NATO-way-of-doing-war is not on display here. Ukraine is doing a very good job of a hybrid blend of post-Soviet + NATO + indigenous warfare but it cannot yet move to a full-NATO-doctrine approach for obvious reasons. That is relevant to the drones discussion Telenko keeps wailing about where at least the more significant NATO+ nations are well aware of drones and the implications, and haven't been sitting idly by for the last 40+ years. But neither do they go around explaining in public what all their plans are. If you read that RUSI paper one can see it is specifically meant to head people like Telenko off at the pass in the public domain before their wailings that the sky is falling in get accepted as gospel truth by woefully under-informed politicians, treasuries, and anybody with any platform-specific axe to grind (aka all the normal useful fools). The RUSI paper doesn't say that nothing needs to change, though it is very noticeable that the things it is pointing out that do need to change, are the very ones that the useful fools have been merrily helping themselves to capability holidays on, i.e. the military studying the problem have seen their warning get ignored about what really matters for a very long time, because they are costly.
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I can't imagine half of the homes in the US responding to an energy crisis by using more sparingly or not at all. And not using the oven. How are they making Strudel and Black Forrest cakes?
‘Over half’ of Germans heating homes less or not at all
High energy costs are changing the heating habits of people in Germany. According to a recent survey, one in ten people didn't turn on their heating or oven at all in September, October or November this year.
‘Over half’ of Germans heating homes less or not at all
High energy costs are changing the heating habits of people in Germany. According to a recent survey, one in ten people didn't turn on their heating or oven at all in September, October or November this year.
Isn't that the truth! When everyone here was complaining about the cost of gas, you sure didn't see anyone slowing down on the highway either... which would have lowered their cost and demand to lower cost for everyone else.
Some days I'm just disgusted by the gap between what people think American culture is (motherhood, apple pie, hospitality and heroes) and the magnitude of selfish, whiny behavior. /rant off (for now, when's happy hour?)
petit_bateau
Active Member
Au contraire, the F35 is part of the answer.
NATO doctrine is to have - as a minimum - localised control of the air for a purpose.
petit_bateau
Active Member
Gosh, the Guardian is right on top of things:
Iran has not yet sent ballisic missiles
www.theguardian.com
..... because including domestic distractions
www.theguardian.com
and
www.theguardian.com
Orban in Hungary being a complete nonce
www.theguardian.com
and
www.theguardian.com
and
www.theguardian.com
(sorry about those long links, but they should take you to the right places if you try them)
Iran has not yet sent ballisic missiles
Iran has not sent ballistic missiles to Russia so far, says Ukrainian official
Mykhailo Podolyak says pressure on Tehran from overseas and distraction of civil unrest mean helping Moscow is not a priority
www.theguardian.com
..... because including domestic distractions
Iran: mass strike starts amid mixed messages about abolishing morality police
Shopkeepers and lorry drivers from almost 40 cities are participating in mass walkouts
www.theguardian.com
Iran’s moment of truth: what will it take for the people to topple the regime?
The long read: Three months after the uprising began, demonstrators are still risking their lives. Will this generation succeed where previous attempts to unseat the Islamic hardliners have been crushed?
www.theguardian.com
Orban in Hungary being a complete nonce
Russia claims Ukraine shelling Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant – as it happened
Moscow accuses Ukraine of ‘nuclear terrorism’; Kremlin spokesperson says there is no prospect for negotiations with Kyiv at the moment
www.theguardian.com
Russia claims Ukraine shelling Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant – as it happened
Moscow accuses Ukraine of ‘nuclear terrorism’; Kremlin spokesperson says there is no prospect for negotiations with Kyiv at the moment
www.theguardian.com
EU seeks to freeze €13bn in funding to Hungary over corruption fears
European Commission says Viktor Orbán’s government’s rule-of-law reforms do not go far enough
www.theguardian.com
(sorry about those long links, but they should take you to the right places if you try them)
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Gosh, the Guardian is right on top of things:
Iran has not yet sent ballisic missiles
Iran has not sent ballistic missiles to Russia so far, says Ukrainian official
Mykhailo Podolyak says pressure on Tehran from overseas and distraction of civil unrest mean helping Moscow is not a priority
..... because including domestic distractions
andIran: mass strike starts amid mixed messages about abolishing morality police
Shopkeepers and lorry drivers from almost 40 cities are participating in mass walkouts
Iran’s moment of truth: what will it take for the people to topple the regime?
The long read: Three months after the uprising began, demonstrators are still risking their lives. Will this generation succeed where previous attempts to unseat the Islamic hardliners have been crushed?
Orban in Hungary being a complete nonce
andRussia claims Ukraine shelling Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant – as it happened
Moscow accuses Ukraine of ‘nuclear terrorism’; Kremlin spokesperson says there is no prospect for negotiations with Kyiv at the moment
andRussia claims Ukraine shelling Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant – as it happened
Moscow accuses Ukraine of ‘nuclear terrorism’; Kremlin spokesperson says there is no prospect for negotiations with Kyiv at the moment
EU seeks to freeze €13bn in funding to Hungary over corruption fears
European Commission says Viktor Orbán’s government’s rule-of-law reforms do not go far enough
(sorry about those long links, but they should take you to the right places if you try them)
I would bet Israel, USA, and Ukraine (among others) are just waiting for those ballistic missiles to be in a location where they can be picked off. Probably Iran's big hesitation.
In over 100 years of military aviation in the US, nothing like that has ever happened. There are many ways to sabotage and aircraft that are more subtle and the perp might even be able to get away with it.
On a satellite image those B-52s are parked close, but they are some distance apart. They are vulnerable to something like a nuclear weapon, but a conventional weapon would only damage one or two.
The US also has the advantage of being a natural fortress. It would take a lot of effort for an enemy with enough weapons to damage all those planes to get close enough to use them. By the time they did the entire US military would be on a war footing and shooting back.
Until this week the Russians and the rest of the world thought that the Ukrainains didn't have anything capable of hitting Engels, so they weren't taking any measures to protect the aircraft there. They probably are now.
===========
Meanwhile, closer to home for some of us, the Friends Of Putin league is all too active in the US right wing:
Top US conservatives pushing Russia’s spin on Ukraine war, experts say
Some of the Kremlin’s most blatant falsehoods aimed at undercutting US aid are promoted by major figures on the right
The American right has been a lot like the DUP in Northern Ireland for a long time. But it's gotten even more toxic in the last few years. The worst of them essentially cheer for the bad guys in every scenario. Nick Fuentes is particularly toxic. He's been way out on the fringe, even for that crowd, until recently. He ha publicly said he's anti-democracy.
Thread by @TrentTelenko on Thread Reader App
@TrentTelenko: The Drone Revolution in Military Affairs...visual proof...arriving. Dyagilevo airfield, Russia - 2022 ~600 km from Ukrainian border h/t @wartranslated 1/ Khmeimim airbase, Syria - January 2018 2/ The ...…
Another trent piece on drones marginalizing value of many traditional assets. The sooner NATO really grasps this the better. Ukraine is just starting, give them a year and russia will be facing daily attack.
@petit_bateau I think the war translated piece was interesting on the Engles base. It's the only base in all of Russia with the ability to service the planes. 1 base. There is no space there to disperse them. Good on Ukraine to make it difficult at least.
The Russians had planned to build a couple more bases for the strategic bomber force, but like most things in Russia, the money got stolen.
The US and NATO are actively working on a lot of anti-drone technologies neither the Ukrainians nor the Russians have. Among them are cheap ways to shoot them down and ways to jam them to a point where only drones with the latest military anti-jamming hardware are going to be able to operate near NATO assets.
Where I think drones will proliferate is in smaller conflicts between more limited adversaries such as the wars in Africa or some of the Middle Eastern conflicts. Drones will be part of NATO conflicts, but we won't see a lot of commercial drones deployed successfully.
On Nextdoor I saw a lot of people complaining before the election about inflation, the cost of gas, etc. They usually shut up when I pointed out that the US was faring far better than most of the developed world and none of the inflation is due to the current administration's policies. We're in a situation with supply chain disruptions, world oil supply disruptions and the possibly the worst labor shortage in US history.
NATO doctrine relies heavily on air power which is not a factor in this conflict.
Gosh, the Guardian is right on top of things:
Iran has not yet sent ballisic missiles
Iran has not sent ballistic missiles to Russia so far, says Ukrainian official
Mykhailo Podolyak says pressure on Tehran from overseas and distraction of civil unrest mean helping Moscow is not a priority
..... because including domestic distractions
andIran: mass strike starts amid mixed messages about abolishing morality police
Shopkeepers and lorry drivers from almost 40 cities are participating in mass walkouts
Iran’s moment of truth: what will it take for the people to topple the regime?
The long read: Three months after the uprising began, demonstrators are still risking their lives. Will this generation succeed where previous attempts to unseat the Islamic hardliners have been crushed?
Orban in Hungary being a complete nonce
andRussia claims Ukraine shelling Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant – as it happened
Moscow accuses Ukraine of ‘nuclear terrorism’; Kremlin spokesperson says there is no prospect for negotiations with Kyiv at the moment
andRussia claims Ukraine shelling Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant – as it happened
Moscow accuses Ukraine of ‘nuclear terrorism’; Kremlin spokesperson says there is no prospect for negotiations with Kyiv at the moment
EU seeks to freeze €13bn in funding to Hungary over corruption fears
European Commission says Viktor Orbán’s government’s rule-of-law reforms do not go far enough
(sorry about those long links, but they should take you to the right places if you try them)
I have read that Iran has built less than 100 launchers. They may not have any to send to Russia.
On a note about Russia's ability to adapt. This winter is going to be a big test. The latest Perun talks about winter fighting
He points out that virtually everyone in the Russian army grew up in places that have harsher winters than Ukraine. Individually most have some clue about protecting themselves from the cold. Where the big question lies is if the Russian military can push forward the supplies needed to protect the troops and whether the troops can be disciplined enough to do the things necessary for survival. Heavy drinking has been a problem among some Russian troops which is a bad idea when outside in serious winter conditions.
Very recently enacted $60 price cap on Russian oil may be having a small but significant effect.
Urals crude trading >$25/bbl less than Brent. Let's see how this evolves over the next few weeks.
Urals-Brent price difference
Urals crude trading >$25/bbl less than Brent. Let's see how this evolves over the next few weeks.
Urals-Brent price difference
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petit_bateau
Active Member
Hi res damage photos at Engels
I don't think the Russian embassy quite understands that they are tweeting out evidence of their own war crime : that of siting SAM facilities in civilian areas ... and in any case it is not obvious that the photo is genuine
Issues with anti-Kremlin outlaw Russian TV
www.theguardian.com
I don't think the Russian embassy quite understands that they are tweeting out evidence of their own war crime : that of siting SAM facilities in civilian areas ... and in any case it is not obvious that the photo is genuine
Issues with anti-Kremlin outlaw Russian TV
Russian TV station in Latvia loses licence over Ukraine war coverage
TV Rain had relocated from Russia soon after invasion but on-air remarks by presenter were deemed to take Moscow’s side
www.theguardian.com
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