To be honest in a post-conflict Ukraine I think it will be at least 5-years before any oil & gas company is prepared to take the reputation risks associated with developing in the eastern part of Ukraine including offshore Crimea. That is even assuming a peaceful outcome as opposed to another frozen conflict. Add in another 5-years to go from 'start' to any significant hydrocarbons and you have 10-years. And in 10-years time I think the progress in rolling out renewables will mean that the demand simply isn't there. So really I struggle to see who would even start down that road.
We will be using fossil fuels for some time to come. The Russians have already developed some of the resources in and around Crimea, so they are ready to be tapped. I agree it will take a while for any new development to happen again.
There is a chance that Russia devolves into civil war on the back end of this war. It's also probable that even if they do manage to stay together, Russia will be a pariah state and a lot of countries will continue to boycott their oil and gas. Having alternatives to Russia for oil and gas will be needed.
Oil is going to still be required for aircraft and ships for a long time to come. We have land transportation technologies on the shelf right now, the problem is scaling up production to replace ICE. There are no viable technologies for replacing fossil fuels for air and sea transport. Electrics can be used for short range air and naval travel, but for any distance oil is the only viable fuel for the foreseeable future.
If countries are successful in killing off natural gas for generating electricity (I think it's going to take longer than many people think), the remaining natural gas can be turned into fertilizer, which has a growing demand worldwide.
A few more bit
Export T90 - are these ones that were for India ?
I read Russia was preparing a batch of T-90s for India when the war broke out. The status of those were in limbo for some time. The Russians may have taken over the order due to the war emergency.
I've also read that India is working to free itself from dependence on the Russian arms industry. They are starting to set up their own arms factories. Russia's arms export business might be permanently damaged by this war. Whether countries are going to get what they paid for is now in doubt and the performance of Russian hardware in battle has come up short. A lot of that is due to incompetent operators vs well trained Ukrainians, but it's not a good look.
Putin has been trying to get Balarus into the war since the beginning, but Lukashenko has been resisting. From what I've read, the mood in Belarus is much more pro-Ukraine than pro-Russia and Lukashenko probably knows that the bulk of his army would defect shortly after crossing the border into Ukraine. If they don't defect, they are going to do as little as possible to harm Ukrainians.
The scale of the war crimes
That's a lot of spent missiles!
and this would be a UN-GA resolution bypassing the UN-P5 veto problem
US opposition may be softening after lobbying by Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy
www.theguardian.com
I do think Russia needs to be removed from the Security Council. The small countries in the UN should be brought into the fold on the Russian war crimes debate. The world order established after WW II that pretty much says the borders of countries as of the late 40s are fixed unless a country decides to break apart. That protects smaller countries from larger ones.
The US's argument in this regard was made weaker by the US led invasion of Iraq in 2003, but the US never made a peep about keeping Iraq for itself. The plan was always to stabilize the situation and get out. Of course it was a country where stabilization was pretty much impossible, but that was the plan.
Wry detailed discussion on Bakhmut
Bakhmut was originally part of an operation to trap a bunch of Ukrainians between Irpin and Bakhmut. With the fall of Irpin, Bakhmut became strategically useless, but the Russians have continued their attempt at an offensive. They are throwing away lives for a target of no military importance on its own.
Russian othodox 'church' .........
@iverbytskyi: Let me tell you a few words about the so-called Ukrainian Orthodox Church allegedly banned by Zelenskyi this week 🧵 First of all, nothing has been banned yet. Today is Sunday, and there were services...…
threadreaderapp.com
That clarifies some things. I had read that about the Independent Ukrainian Orthodox Church, but thought it was called the Ukrainian Orthodox Church. This clears some confusion.
I was thinking about the People's Front of Judea vs the Judean People's Front from The Life of Brian reading it. In this case there is a real distinction between the two.
cornucopia.se
