Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Russia/Ukraine conflict

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
in the West (primarily the USA) will see normal service resumed from the Friends Of Putin fan club.

Fwiw, the anti-aid sentiment I see and read about is a lot more about narrow minded self interest rather than being pro-Russian or pro-Putin. They just think that money that could have gone to them is going to UKR, and they derive no benefit. This is what I read from the little I pay attention to trumper politicians, and it is very similar to the views of young local people who are mostly apolitical, democrat leaning.
 
Last edited:
OT:

A scorpion wants to cross a river but cannot swim, so it asks a frog to carry it across. The frog hesitates, afraid that the scorpion might sting it, but the scorpion promises not to, pointing out that it would drown if it killed the frog in the middle of the river. The frog considers this argument sensible and agrees to transport the scorpion.

Midway across the river, the scorpion stings the frog anyway, dooming them both. The dying frog asks the scorpion why it stung despite knowing the consequence, to which the scorpion replies: "I am sorry, but I couldn't resist the urge. It's my kharakter. [1]

Lesson for us all: count on villians to vile, count on bela to rus.
 
Last edited:
Fwiw, the anti-aid sentiment I see and read about is a lot more about narrow minded self interest rather than being pro-Russian or pro-Putin. They just think that money that could have gone to them is going to UKR, and they derive no benefit.
It's not clear to me what they think or what their motives are. The best argument for a pro-Putin person could well be that the money is better spent at home.

The far-right’s pro-Russia posture endangers the nation and the world​


Those who rely on a cost-benefit argument to suggest that the United States should reduce our support for Ukraine fail to recognize that America has committed just a fraction of our annual defense spending — a sum equivalent to roughly 6 percent — to aid the brave Ukrainian people and erode Russia’s military might. Even more critically, we have done so with zero American casualties.
 
Stupid question here, but hear me out, have been wondering this for a while. Is it possible, that general import sanctions are actually the thing that preventes the ruble from collapsing? If people would be allowed to buy everything they want and the only obstacle would be how much anyone outside russia wants to hodl the ruble, prices would skyrocket and money printing would begin, yes?
 
  • Informative
Reactions: ElectricIAC
It seems that Engels airbase inside Russia has been struck again! Some are reporting that stockpiles of cruise missiles may have been hit this time. Very encouraging.

 
That Russian loss rate is truly staggering, and it has doubled in the last few days.

Several weeks ago was the point when Russia had lost approx 85,000 KIA and we learnt that Ukraine had then lost approx 13,000 KIA. Then that was an approx 6 : 1 exchange ratio. Nothing since then has indicated that the exchange ratio has changed in Russia's favour.

To put things in perspective Russia had 2021 population of 143 million and Ukraine then had a population of 44 million. That was 3 : 1 population ratio. Since then a lot of Russian males of conscription age have fled the country, especially the more capable ones. Not so much in Ukraine.

Continuing along this trajectory it really does become a matter of when, not if, the Ukraine forces are able to push the Russian forces out.

Unless something changes about the nature of the conflict, such that the trajectory changes.


View attachment 888764
It is approaching levels seen in major wars like Vietnam or Korea. I believe the loss of equipment is approaching losses of wwii.

Well I am shocked, it has far exceeded USA losses of equipment in wwii in Europe.
 
In my opinion, on this trajectory Russia is out and within only its own territory within 12-months. Which likely includes exiting Crimea.

Unless something changes about the nature of the trajectory.

Putin is of course hoping that elections in key countries in the West (primarily the USA) will see normal service resumed from the Friends Of Putin fan club. I don't think Ukraine will let up their cautious sequential advances, as they too know the political-strategic backdrop. Ukraine knows the West is not good at strategic patience, and so Ukraine will keep pushing back provided that the necessary flows in support continue. Which I think they will, as all Western allies have done the corresponding calculation.

The elections in the US are done. There will probably be some special elections to replace Congress people who resign in the next year. There are always a few. The NY 3rd Congressional district will probably be vacant when the new Congress convenes. It turns out the Republican who won the seat lied about all his credentials and it's turned into a big scandal. The Republican party is trying to get him to resign quietly before he is indicted for fraud.

Stupid question here, but hear me out, have been wondering this for a while. Is it possible, that general import sanctions are actually the thing that preventes the ruble from collapsing? If people would be allowed to buy everything they want and the only obstacle would be how much anyone outside russia wants to hodl the ruble, prices would skyrocket and money printing would begin, yes?

The strength of the ruble is sort of an illusion right now. Russia is currently exporting almost nothing in rubles so the money markets end up pegging it at an artificially high value.

Back in the summer Russia was offering all sorts of bonuses to get people to volunteer for the army. They apparently were paying the bonuses at first, but now they have not only quit paying bonuses, they have mostly quit paying their soldiers at all. The Russian central bank was dumping rubles into the economy during the summer (people usually say they are printing money when central banks do this), but all that largess is beginning to bite them and they are pulling back.

I have seen some economists predict Russia could see some sort of major financial crisis by about March of next year.

It is approaching levels seen in major wars like Vietnam or Korea. I believe the loss of equipment is approaching losses of wwii.

Well I am shocked, it has far exceeded USA losses of equipment in wwii in Europe.

Not quite the US lost 7000 tanks and tank destroyers from June 6, 1944 to the end of the war in Europe. About 4300-4400 of those were M-4 Sherman tanks. In Italy the US lost another 3377 armored vehicles.

The number of troops committed to this war is a tiny fraction of those committed in WW II. It's smaller than Vietnam too. By 1969 the US had 500,000 troops in country. The Russians have probably never had more than 200,000 at any point in this war.

They may have never had much more than half of that. One of the corruption schemes in the army is for commanders to claim people who left the service are still there so they get supplies for that person. As a result most units have more strength on paper than they actual have. So BTGs who were supposed to be 600 men strong on Feb 24 may have only had 300, but Moscow thought they had 600.

There have been stories from many sources of units going to war at about half strength.

The losses vs the troops committed for the Russians is staggeringly high. Both men and equipment. The losses are bad just on the face of it, but when compared to past wars the losses become staggering.
 
Two stories that seem to be developing for the Russians. Russian banks appear to have run out of money.

I've seen a lot of stories with Russian soldiers complaining they aren't getting paid and now the banks aren't allowing people to withdraw money.

And Russia is facing a serious artillery ammunition shortage. Gunners are complaining they can't get ammunition and when they do it's newly made and of poor quality.

In another report I can't find at the moment, the gunners apparently consider crews who only use 20 shells to kill one target to be the best of the best. The Ukrainians usually use 1 or 2.

I have a feeling one world leader may not be having a happy new year...
 
When you attack another country and your attacking country is not at risk of being counter-invaded, lasting in these terms is a mathematical certainty. That's not amazing. North Korea has "lasted" decades longer with nearly the "entire world" against it. Lasting and thriving are not the same. It's really pathetic how poorly Russia has performed.
 
  • Funny
Reactions: JRP3
  • Informative
Reactions: madodel
I agree though, it [non payment] does sound like the kind of thing that would not boost morale.

Just out of the blue, that non-payment story reminded me of dystopian SciFi stories of societies with over population that would pay families to euthanize people who were no longer productive. Different matter in the Russian Federation but that place is no less dystopian.
 
  • Informative
Reactions: SwedishAdvocate