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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
X Fan
Active Member
not a good look for German Intelligence:
www.telegraph.co.uk
German double agent ‘passed Ukraine intelligence to Russia’
Blackmail may explain why intelligence operative handed over ‘state secrets’ to a Russian spy agency
www.telegraph.co.uk
I don't recall any case of a country collapsing under sanctions. Things can get pretty grim in a country under sanctions, but they can survive. For a country trying to perform something very expensive like conduct a war, sanctions will hurt their ability to conduct the war.
Up until June 1941 Germany had plenty of oil to conduct their war thanks to a deal they had with Stalin's USSR. As soon as Germany invaded Soviet oil shut off and it was a race against time to either knock the USSR out of the war (attempt to capture Moscow in 1941), or capture Russian oil fields which was the goal of the offensives in 1942 in the south. By the end of 1942 the Germans had captured part of an oil field, but they were unable to hold it.
The only supply of oil Germany had in Europe was from Romania. The Germans supplemented their oil supply with large plants conducting an expensive process to convert coal into motor fuels. The western allies bombed their plants fairly often up to the end of the war.
Germany managed to hold out from mid-1941 to mid-1945 with a very precarious oil supply in a war that required more fossil fuels than any to date. The cost of German oil was cripplingly high, but they managed.
Russia is under some pretty intense sanctions, but they are seeking ways around them and ways to deal with them as best they can. At the same time for propaganda reasons they have been working hard to make it appear conditions in at least Moscow haven't changed much. This is putting an intense stress on the entire economy on top of the stress war causes in the first place.
If Russia was not at war, they would probably be able to survive the sanctions, but what could bring them down is revolt over the progress of the war (which sanctions have impacted indirectly). Countries have had civil unrest when a war goes badly. Russia is particularly vulnerable to this. The Russian people will put up with high casualties in a winning cause, but there is low tolerance for high casualties and losing. Since the 1860s losing a war has always caused civil unrest.
The sanctions are making it much more difficult for Russia to pay for the war. They had both international and domestic cash reserves going into the war. The international reserves were seized, but they still had the domestic reserves. The sanctions have also made it more difficult to get the parts they need for their more modern weapons systems. They can get some parts on the gray/black market, but they are dealing with a high counterfeit rate.
Sanctions are contributing to their inability to win this war, which is triggering unrest. If people can't get money from the banks, the government tells them it's because of the war, and people will grumble, but not start throwing molotov cocktails at the nearest cop in protest. But as it becomes clear Russia is not only losing the war, but there is no hope of turning things around, people are more likely to start violent protests.
Russia's 'Super Weapon' T-14 Armata Tanks Spotted Inside 'Special Military Operation' Zone; Experts Discuss Deployment To Donbas
Videos and images of Russia's most advanced Main Battle Tank (MBT), the T-14 Armata, have surfaced online, with several Russian media sources reporting that the tank has been spotted inside the so-called 'Special Military Operation' zone.eurasiantimes.com
How many T-14s exist is hazy. Full production was supposed to start this year, though I don't think that happened. There has been a handful of prototypes since 2015 that have shown up to parades and such. There were supposed to be 20 pre-production tanks entering service in 2021, but there are also stories this was pushed back to 2022. The first production batch of 40 was supposed to be delivered in 2023.
I have seen no evidence the production line has been running this year. A parallel production line for T-90s has been shut down most of the year. A minister had an inspection of the T-90 plant that was supposedly back in operation, but people who analyzed the photos pointed out that the "workers" all appeared to just look like they were busy. Basically actors.
If the T-14 was in production, they would have made a big deal about it.
The tanks that showed up in Ukraine are probably the prototypes being pressed into service because they are running out of armor. According to what I read in the Wikipedia article, the auto loader was supposed to be ready for production this year. The turret is unmanned, so without a working auto loader the tank is not very useful. The remote controlled machine gun on the roof might work, which makes it a mobile machine gun platform.
They have also had trouble with the new engine, and who knows what sort of teething pains the new gun is having. The tank is all new tech. Even in the US procurement process weapons systems with a lot of new tech have long development cycles. I'm sure Russia is worse.
petit_bateau
Active Member
The most recent strike on Engels appears to have had some success. In one of the videos it seemed to me that something low in the air released a missile of some sort at a fairly short range. That indicates a weapons system that has not previously been reported on, crucially with some sort of target acquisition and selection capability provided by some means.
Russia's Lavrov: Either Ukraine fulfils Moscow's proposals or our army will decide
Hopefully wherever these peace talks are held it's a nice conference room above the 10th floor with an open window to a beautiful view that Vlad and his buddy Sergei can enjoy on the way down.
Hopefully wherever these peace talks are held it's a nice conference room above the 10th floor with an open window to a beautiful view that Vlad and his buddy Sergei can enjoy on the way down.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
Include Lavrov in the trip down, I'm sure they will want some reassurance
Definitely want those two good buddies to enjoy that view together.
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
Shooting Down A $14,000 Geran-2 UAV With A Million Dollar Missile Cannot Win That War For Ukraine - Experts
Ukraine is spending significantly more money on countering the threat from Shahed-136 'kamikaze' drones fired at its cities than Russia spends on acquiring and launching these Iranian-made drones.
eurasiantimes.com
What a novel strategy
Shooting Down A $14,000 Geran-2 UAV With A Million Dollar Missile Cannot Win That War For Ukraine - Experts
Ukraine is spending significantly more money on countering the threat from Shahed-136 'kamikaze' drones fired at its cities than Russia spends on acquiring and launching these Iranian-made drones.
What a novel strategy
Faced with a choice between expensive infrastructural damage and an expensive prevention, it's not surprising they choose the expensive prevention.
Cheapest isn't always best. Capitulation would have been much cheaper.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
What's your suggested strategy, let the drones hit and kill people? Of course you neglect the fact that Ukraine has also been using cheap drones to destroy more expensive Russian targets, and soldiers, (not that you or Russia care about them in the least.)Shooting Down A $14,000 Geran-2 UAV With A Million Dollar Missile Cannot Win That War For Ukraine - Experts
Ukraine is spending significantly more money on countering the threat from Shahed-136 'kamikaze' drones fired at its cities than Russia spends on acquiring and launching these Iranian-made drones.
What a novel strategy
More tanks rolling in and apparently now Russia is producing more tanks than ever before. So much for those sanctions.
I'm sure Ukraine itself as well as the allies who support them are working on counter measures to the kamikaze drones. Maybe they can boomarang them to take out the Russians launching them.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Pretty pathetic that the "2nd largest" armed forces in the world are having problems with little ol Ukraine.
If NATO did decide to really get involved, they would be at the Kremlin inside of a week, tops.
Go back to Moscow troll, you are not welcome here.
BitJam
Active Member
The article mentions the loss of 1,500 Russian main battle tanks. No mention from Russia of how many of these new tanks are being produced. If it was a large number then I have no doubt Russia would crow about it. There is nothing in the article that supports your wild claim that Russia is producing more tanks than ever before. If you have any evidence of this, please share it with us.
I see only three or four tanks in the picture. The sanctions were never meant to completely halt all production of new tanks. OTOH, if they cause Russia to only produce 3 tanks, or 30 tanks, or even 300 tanks to replace the 1,500 they lost then the sanctions have been extremely effective.
If this picture of three new tanks is the best rah-rah pro-Russia argument available then things look bleak for the invaders and I wouldn't be surprised if Ukraine kicks them out before the end of 2023.
Not climbing stairs is a valuable life skill in Putin's circles!
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
Is the Russian populace at large aware of these murders, however they may be characterized ?
And another thought -- I realize that many of Putin's inner circle are gangsters, but even mafias need competent leadership
I suppose I am wondering how many more palace murders can happen before effects become apparent.
And another thought -- I realize that many of Putin's inner circle are gangsters, but even mafias need competent leadership
I suppose I am wondering how many more palace murders can happen before effects become apparent.
Dima Trolls; Elon Rolls
Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev wrote some Twitter fan fiction over the weekend in which he hallucinated the fall of the West and the rise of the Fourth Reich. Elon Musk thought the thread was “epic.”
Isn't that the point of this? I'd think Putin wants everyone to know to give everyone a warning that no matter how prominent one is they can still fall out a window or have a "heart attack" if they aren't 100% behind Putin's latest "Special Operation" to make Russia Great Again.
