Russia/Ukraine conflict

[MC3OZ]

I see nothing in the limited time we have seen him on TV that indicates significant illness. The only exception would be a terminal cancer with poor prognosis, however, that is not yet manifest physically.

Sadly, I don't put much stock in him doing the world a solid and dying soon.

The speculation is something like colon cancer and/or that he is immunocompromised.
There is lot of speculation flying around, something is weird, he doesn't like other people being in close physical proximity,

 

[MC3OZ]

Russia could reduce Ukraine to rubble with similar methods to what they did with Grozny. Or carpet bombing.

Whether Ukraine wants to fight despite the ultimatum of extreme measures that Russia has given is up to them. I hesitate to encourage it.

I've always thought a deal both sides could live with ASAP is the best outcome.

We could be closer to that, Ukraine are deciding what they will go through, to get the deal they want.,

We could also be about to see a bit of a "momentum shift" in the conflict, I hope that happens slowly enough for Russia to recognise it is happening.

Crimea seems to be the sticking point specifically gas, IMO it isn't an important as both sides seem to think it is, I would split the royalties 50/50 and just draw a line on a map somewhere. But the Ukrainians are deciding what deal they will accept.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Initially I was skeptical when he said the global market was ending. I don't completely agree with that, I think it's going to morph, but he makes a lot of good points overall.

I think what's going to happen is the global market is going to shrink from including everyone to only including partners that are reliably going to be there tomorrow. Countries with stable economies will continues to trade with one another and some countries will specialize in some things. Fr example during the pandemic we had a lot of problems with counterfeit PPE because China had cornered the market before the pandemic and a lot of dodgy players got into the game, sometimes using the logos of reliable brands.

If the PPE market was controlled by a country with better consumer protections and a more responsible government, that wouldn't have happened. The disruptions probably would have been less dramatic because that country's government would have made more of an effort to work with other developed countries. Production expansion would have been more transparent and reliable.

I could see a global market with virtually all of Europe, North America, New Zealand, Australia, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Singapore, and some other stable economies all participating as they have been, but only with each other. The developing world would be out until they could get their economies stable and then they would be let into the fold.

He does make some good points about China and Russia.

There is an economic theory that has tended to hold true in just about every country in the modern era. Most people when they reach their early 50s, they drop their consumer spending. That's usually the age where children are leaving home and people get serious about rat-holing money for retirement. Also retirees are a net drain on an economy. When the retiree population gets too big, the economy goes into the doldrums.

Japan hit that point in the early 90s. They have had more retirees than working people for the last 30 years and it's dragged down their economy. When that generational cadre finally dies off and the number f retirees isn't so large, Japan's economy will come roaring back. It's taken a long time in Japan because they live so long. Other countries who hit that mark will have a shorter period of doldrums.

China is right on the cusp of that now and their generational difference is vastly larger than Japan's ever was. With the screwiness from the Chinese Communist Party and their tendency too hide the ball whenever there are problems hoping they will go away, the impact on China will likely be much more than just doldrums. They will probably go into a depression.

I didn't know the US was industrializing like it is, but that's good news. Somebody is going to have to pick up the pieces when China falls apart.

Russia is also facing a serious demographic cliff too. In the case of Russia they have one of the shortest expected life spans in the developed world so their period of retiree drag will probably not be as great, but he doesn't mention the generational divide Russia has between the cold war generations and post cold war generations. When the post cold war generations take control, Russia will be a very different place.



There seems to be a rush to try and blame the US for this war. Most of it coming from Americans. Some say it's US oil policy and some say it's due to the neocons wanting a new cold war.

US oil policy has caused a lot of problems in the world. Iran is the way it is today because the US and UK overthrew a duly elected president of Iran in the 1950s and replaced him with the Shah. Iraq is what it is in part because somebody who didn't understand the Middle East was drawing lines on a map in the 1920s and the US made it worse by trying regime change there in 2003.

US foreign policy has had a minor role in this conflict. NATO has been growing eastward and the old cold warriors in Russia don't like it, but the more they try to do something about it, the more Eastern Europe wants to be in NATO. The Eastern European countries joining NATO was more about the western allies acquiescing to demands than something the western countries were actively seeking out. But allowing NATO too grow eastward did make Putin nervous.

Oil and gas politics plays a role too, but the US has taken less of an active role in the dance Putin has played with Europe and oil politics. It was more about how much Germany was cuddling up to Russia and how much the rest of Europe was uncomfortable with that. Geographically Russian oil and gas is a natural fit for Europe. It's a supply that can be brought into Europe by pipeline, something not easily done from other sources.

But ultimately over 90% of the blame for this war sits on the shoulders of one person: Vladimir Putin and all the hand wringing about US oil policy and foreign policy is just a distraction right now. That's such a minor part of this war that it's not the time to talk about it.

Talk about how we can change energy policy to be less dependent on oil in general as well as how to deal with the shortages in raw materials coming out of Russia in the coming years are going to affect us are things we should be the side conversations we've been having. We can blame ourselves for our failings later. We have one world crisis that's going to lead to other crisis that will impact the world economy.

Those two guys are a couple of pieces of *sugar*. This war is zero percent due to US policy and zero percent over oil. It's entirely because Putin believes Ukraine should be Russia and making it so is basically on his bucket list. He knows his time is running out so he decided now is the time. He didn't know it would blow up into such a blunder because he deluded himself into believing the Ukrainian people would welcome it.

Most political issues are complex, tangled webs. This one is very simple.

 

[nwdiver]

Ironic that Russia has adopted an incomplete and lost Swastika as a symbol of this idiotic invasion.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

The fall back plan could have always been that Putin is expendable..

Some suggest he has a serious illness, is in some pain and may die soon anyway.

He might volunteer for early euthanasia, and take one for the team.

Too much of an egomaniac.

 

[MC3OZ]

I don't know if this tweet has been posted:-

https://twitter.com/x/status/1500958722776051714

The apparent significance is, it is a Done strike on part of the famous convoy, I believe taking out the air defence unit.

The air defence unit seems to sit there blissfully unaware.

My guess, we know some Russian soldiers have gone off to sit in the woods, this type of thing will make more want to go sit off in the woods.

Russian military intelligence will know what this means, and there might be a bit more flexibility in the next round of negotiations.

 

[ZachF]

I don't know if this tweet has been posted:-

https://twitter.com/x/status/1500958722776051714

The apparent significance is, it is a Done strike on part of the famous convoy, I believe taking out the air defence unit.

The air defence unit seems to sit there blissfully unaware.

My guess, we know some Russian soldiers have gone off to sit in the woods, this type of thing will make more want to go sit off in the woods.

Russian military intelligence will know what this means, and there might be a bit more flexibility in the next round of negotiations.

That Bayraktar factory is going to be selling as fast as they can make them.

Drones and reusable space launch are going to obsolete huge swaths of the military.

 

[MC3OZ]

That Bayraktar factory is going to be selling as fast as they can make them.

Drones and reusable space launch are going to obsolete huge swaths of the military.

The US make a Drone which is possibly even better:- General Atomics MQ-9 Reaper - Wikipedia

But the Bayraktar is probably better value for money..

 

[nativewolf]

Ironic that Russia has adopted an incomplete and lost Swastika as a symbol of this idiotic invasion.

Like the new look NWDIVER, guess I should figure out how to fix mine

 

[wdolson]

I'm not so sure that the action has been so one-sided and that the Russians are desperate with regard to time. Pick your own perception in the fog of war.

Time is very much against the Russians. There was a video about Russian supply logistics posted here a few days ago. Russian war planning is very heavily dependent on the Russian rail network. When they get off the Russian rail network, they are dependent on trucks. They started the war with enough trucks to move about 3000 tons a day. Enough to support maybe 1/3 of the force they have in the country. A large number of those trucks have been destroyed or are stuck in the convoy going nowhere.

There have been trainloads spotted in Russia of civilian trucks painted with the 'Z' symbol. They are so desperate they are pressing civilian trucks into combat.

They are also critically short of fuel tankers and the Ukrainians have been hunting those. They have already lost 60+.

Another problem the Russians have is they skimped on tires. All their non-tracked vehicles have cheap Chinese tires that are not rated for the loads they have been required to carry. These vehicles have also been stored outside in Russian winters for a few years, so the rubber has aged. They are suffering from blown out tires all over the place and they don't have enough spares.

I think that Putin just does not care. He has his troops slaughtering civilians and committing war crimes on a daily basis. What does he care if they do that 2 weeks or 6 months. Can they survive next winter...I doubt it. I expect things get very interesting by this fall.

Things will likely get interesting in a few weeks. The full force of the sanctions are going to hit home in the next couple of weeks. The economy will go into chaos and that will probably result in increased protests. The protests could exceed the ability of the police to control them, and with the army entirely committed to Ukraine, there will be no troops to put on the streets.

The army's supply problems are bad and likely to just get worse along with the casualties mounting. The Ukrainians estimate about 10,000 dead now. That's 5% of the invasion force. If that's true and the losses remain steady (they are likely to go up from disease, starvation, and improved combat ability of the Ukrainians) that means the entire army will be dead in 20 weeks.

That's not counting the wounded. The wounded are usually about 3-6X the dead, which means that they could have 40,000 troops out of combat due to being wounded. That would give them another few weeks before they are out of troops.

This is quite possibly the worst planned and executed military operation I have ever seen. And I've been studying military history my entire life.

Ironic that Russia has adopted an incomplete and lost Swastika as a symbol of this idiotic invasion.

The symbols are an indicator of the type of unit:

"Letter “V” Russian Marines
Letter “Z” Eastern Military District
Letter “Z” Southern Military District
Letter “O” units from Belarus
Letter “X” kadyrov
Letter “A” Spetznas"

The Eastern and Southern Military Districts troops are making up the bulk of troops, so that is the most frequently seen symbol.

 

[BornToFly]

Nightly News was reporting that Russia offered to end the war immediately without a regime change if Ukraine promises to not join NATO, and gives up Crimea and the Eastern region. The fact they are offering anything might mean that they are realizing things aren't going well. Maybe in another week the offer will be to leave immediately if the Ukrainians pinky swear to let them go and not invade Russia....

That being said, I'm still worried about Russia going off the WWW. As others have discussed, it could mean - 1) cyberattack incoming that could affect the world economy and drop the stock. 2) War coming to an end and Putin wants to hide the truth from the Russian people. 3) Nuclear attack coming that he wants to hide from the Russian people. I'm really praying for possibility #2.

 

[MC3OZ]

This is quite possibly the worst planned and executed military operation I have ever seen. And I've been studying military history my entire life.

I was thinking the same thing, I don't study military operations in detail. But I did study Ancient and Modern History at school.

There was a battle where the Persian King ran away at the start of the conflict demoralising his troops, that at least gives this a run for it's money..
But that was a single poor decision, not many poor decisions after months or years of planning.

 

[nativewolf]

Time is very much against the Russians. There was a video about Russian supply logistics posted here a few days ago. Russian war planning is very heavily dependent on the Russian rail network. When they get off the Russian rail network, they are dependent on trucks. They started the war with enough trucks to move about 3000 tons a day. Enough to support maybe 1/3 of the force they have in the country. A large number of those trucks have been destroyed or are stuck in the convoy going nowhere.

There have been trainloads spotted in Russia of civilian trucks painted with the 'Z' symbol. They are so desperate they are pressing civilian trucks into combat.

They are also critically short of fuel tankers and the Ukrainians have been hunting those. They have already lost 60+.

Another problem the Russians have is they skimped on tires. All their non-tracked vehicles have cheap Chinese tires that are not rated for the loads they have been required to carry. These vehicles have also been stored outside in Russian winters for a few years, so the rubber has aged. They are suffering from blown out tires all over the place and they don't have enough spares.



Things will likely get interesting in a few weeks. The full force of the sanctions are going to hit home in the next couple of weeks. The economy will go into chaos and that will probably result in increased protests. The protests could exceed the ability of the police to control them, and with the army entirely committed to Ukraine, there will be no troops to put on the streets.

The army's supply problems are bad and likely to just get worse along with the casualties mounting. The Ukrainians estimate about 10,000 dead now. That's 5% of the invasion force. If that's true and the losses remain steady (they are likely to go up from disease, starvation, and improved combat ability of the Ukrainians) that means the entire army will be dead in 20 weeks.

That's not counting the wounded. The wounded are usually about 3-6X the dead, which means that they could have 40,000 troops out of combat due to being wounded. That would give them another few weeks before they are out of troops.

This is quite possibly the worst planned and executed military operation I have ever seen. And I've been studying military history my entire life.



The symbols are an indicator of the type of unit:

"Letter “V” Russian Marines
Letter “Z” Eastern Military District
Letter “Z” Southern Military District
Letter “O” units from Belarus
Letter “X” kadyrov
Letter “A” Spetznas"

The Eastern and Southern Military Districts troops are making up the bulk of troops, so that is the most frequently seen symbol.

I agree it appears to be Fubar all the way around with War Crimes as a topping. However, the casualties are really not that significant, in WWII 10k in a day was not uncommon, the siege of Sevastopol had over 230k. 10k in 2 weeks? Stalin would have laughed. They have not called up any reserves, etc. I could see the www black out to suppress news that reservist are being called up. Maybe..who knows. I wouldn't put human casualties as a gating factor for Russia. They lost roughly 10k in Chechnya as well in two conflicts. Also, Ukraine might be a little aggressive in claiming casualties and losses. Like claiming they are picking up fighter jets when it was still being negotiated, or multiple videos popping up of the same vehicle each one claiming it was an additional loss.

I am shocked that Russia so quickly turned to brutality, the tactic was at odds with any strategic goal Putin appeared to have (reincorporate Ukraine as a friendly puppet state). Instead we see Ukrainians united against Russia. We see Germany united against Russia. UK regretting BJ. It has set back Putins goals by decades.

I wondered about the tires, we use forestry rated tires (20+ply) and know the value of a quality tire- 2500 each for our machines, i expect that the truck tires couldn't be so many ply (too heavy for suspension and not capable of high speed -over 20mph). Still, we have seen lots and lots of blown tires and abandoned vehicles. Truck tires matter. Our log truck trailers are each decked out in heavy duty trailer tires designed to withstand some offroad use as well as 70mph with very high loads. Takes a very good tire to pull off that set of capabilities.

 

[nwdiver]

The symbols are an indicator of the type of unit:

"Letter “V” Russian Marines
Letter “Z” Eastern Military District
Letter “Z” Southern Military District
Letter “O” units from Belarus
Letter “X” kadyrov
Letter “A” Spetznas"

The Eastern and Southern Military Districts troops are making up the bulk of troops, so that is the most frequently seen symbol.

That's how it started...

This is how it's going

 

[wdolson]

I agree it appears to be Fubar all the way around with War Crimes as a topping. However, the casualties are really not that significant, in WWII 10k in a day was not uncommon, the siege of Sevastopol had over 230k. 10k in 2 weeks? Stalin would have laughed. They have not called up any reserves, etc. I could see the www black out to suppress news that reservist are being called up. Maybe..who knows. I wouldn't put human casualties as a gating factor for Russia. They lost roughly 10k in Chechnya as well in two conflicts. Also, Ukraine might be a little aggressive in claiming casualties and losses. Like claiming they are picking up fighter jets when it was still being negotiated, or multiple videos popping up of the same vehicle each one claiming it was an additional loss.

I am shocked that Russia so quickly turned to brutality, the tactic was at odds with any strategic goal Putin appeared to have (reincorporate Ukraine as a friendly puppet state). Instead we see Ukrainians united against Russia. We see Germany united against Russia. UK regretting BJ. It has set back Putins goals by decades.

I wondered about the tires, we use forestry rated tires (20+ply) and know the value of a quality tire- 2500 each for our machines, i expect that the truck tires couldn't be so many ply (too heavy for suspension and not capable of high speed -over 20mph). Still, we have seen lots and lots of blown tires and abandoned vehicles. Truck tires matter. Our log truck trailers are each decked out in heavy duty trailer tires designed to withstand some offroad use as well as 70mph with very high loads. Takes a very good tire to pull off that set of capabilities.

I know the Russian army can tolerate higher casualties than western armies and hold up morale, but losses also weaken the force. The Japanese could suffer staggering losses in WW II and keep going, but there comes a point when there just aren't enough people left to pull the triggers.

The size of the forces involved in WW II were also much bigger. 10K a day with many millions of troops in the field is a smaller percentage of force that 10K out of a force of 200K.

The siege of Sevastapol was a very bad defeat for the Russians. The Germans deployed the largest land gun ever used to reduce their fortifications.

Good military grade truck tires do exist, they are used all over the world. But the Russians decided to save some money.

The guy who was their top general until a few days ago was a buddy of Putins with no military experience. He did a lot of things with the military that looked good on the surface, but really were just window dressing. He wasn't concerned about maintaining a combat ready military, just a military that looked good on paper.

In logistics news, an entire tanker convoy got knocked out:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1500869008828116995

 

[wdolson]

That's how it started...

This is how it's going

View attachment 778167View attachment 778169View attachment 778170

Yes, I saw that. It started as just a force identifier and become something else.

 

[nwdiver]

 

[Tiger]

https://www.youtube.com/c/WarGonzo/videos

summary?

Sorry, forgot to mention I don't speak any russian. I was hoping someone else does. This guy hasn't posted for almost a day now so either he or his communications is down.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

The Ukrainian National Anthem is actually pretty hardcore. It reflects their centuries of being ruled and oppressed by foreigners.

Some may ask which national anthem I think is the most hardcore, and the surprising answer is the French National Anthem where they literally sing about watering the grass with the blood of their enemies.

 

[nwdiver]

Fun fact about plugshare. It appears that deleted 'reviews' still count toward the check-in total so you can tabulate how many deletions have occurred. One site has 312 Check-ins and >250 have been removed. Question: Why is plugshare defending Russia? 2nd Question: Why aren't they catching more flak?