ZachF
Active Member
Plan to reduce European gas consumption from Russia by 1/3 to 1/2 in a year:
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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
MontyFloyd
Member
Simply means China will have ability to snoop in on what Putin does in toilet, and ability to completely take over Russian network at will.
Russia will become satellite state of China.
MontyFloyd
Member
I think even China would turn if Putin used a nuke.
They have been very observant.
Ukraine must insist on full withdraw, of everything (like Chirmea).
Or be immediately made NATO member.
Tiger
Active Member
Initially I was skeptical when he said the global market was ending. I don't completely agree with that, I think it's going to morph, but he makes a lot of good points overall.
I think what's going to happen is the global market is going to shrink from including everyone to only including partners that are reliably going to be there tomorrow. Countries with stable economies will continues to trade with one another and some countries will specialize in some things. Fr example during the pandemic we had a lot of problems with counterfeit PPE because China had cornered the market before the pandemic and a lot of dodgy players got into the game, sometimes using the logos of reliable brands.
If the PPE market was controlled by a country with better consumer protections and a more responsible government, that wouldn't have happened. The disruptions probably would have been less dramatic because that country's government would have made more of an effort to work with other developed countries. Production expansion would have been more transparent and reliable.
I could see a global market with virtually all of Europe, North America, New Zealand, Australia, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Singapore, and some other stable economies all participating as they have been, but only with each other. The developing world would be out until they could get their economies stable and then they would be let into the fold.
He does make some good points about China and Russia.
There is an economic theory that has tended to hold true in just about every country in the modern era. Most people when they reach their early 50s, they drop their consumer spending. That's usually the age where children are leaving home and people get serious about rat-holing money for retirement. Also retirees are a net drain on an economy. When the retiree population gets too big, the economy goes into the doldrums.
Japan hit that point in the early 90s. They have had more retirees than working people for the last 30 years and it's dragged down their economy. When that generational cadre finally dies off and the number f retirees isn't so large, Japan's economy will come roaring back. It's taken a long time in Japan because they live so long. Other countries who hit that mark will have a shorter period of doldrums.
China is right on the cusp of that now and their generational difference is vastly larger than Japan's ever was. With the screwiness from the Chinese Communist Party and their tendency too hide the ball whenever there are problems hoping they will go away, the impact on China will likely be much more than just doldrums. They will probably go into a depression.
I didn't know the US was industrializing like it is, but that's good news. Somebody is going to have to pick up the pieces when China falls apart.
Russia is also facing a serious demographic cliff too. In the case of Russia they have one of the shortest expected life spans in the developed world so their period of retiree drag will probably not be as great, but he doesn't mention the generational divide Russia has between the cold war generations and post cold war generations. When the post cold war generations take control, Russia will be a very different place.
There seems to be a rush to try and blame the US for this war. Most of it coming from Americans. Some say it's US oil policy and some say it's due to the neocons wanting a new cold war.
US oil policy has caused a lot of problems in the world. Iran is the way it is today because the US and UK overthrew a duly elected president of Iran in the 1950s and replaced him with the Shah. Iraq is what it is in part because somebody who didn't understand the Middle East was drawing lines on a map in the 1920s and the US made it worse by trying regime change there in 2003.
US foreign policy has had a minor role in this conflict. NATO has been growing eastward and the old cold warriors in Russia don't like it, but the more they try to do something about it, the more Eastern Europe wants to be in NATO. The Eastern European countries joining NATO was more about the western allies acquiescing to demands than something the western countries were actively seeking out. But allowing NATO too grow eastward did make Putin nervous.
Oil and gas politics plays a role too, but the US has taken less of an active role in the dance Putin has played with Europe and oil politics. It was more about how much Germany was cuddling up to Russia and how much the rest of Europe was uncomfortable with that. Geographically Russian oil and gas is a natural fit for Europe. It's a supply that can be brought into Europe by pipeline, something not easily done from other sources.
But ultimately over 90% of the blame for this war sits on the shoulders of one person: Vladimir Putin and all the hand wringing about US oil policy and foreign policy is just a distraction right now. That's such a minor part of this war that it's not the time to talk about it.
Talk about how we can change energy policy to be less dependent on oil in general as well as how to deal with the shortages in raw materials coming out of Russia in the coming years are going to affect us are things we should be the side conversations we've been having. We can blame ourselves for our failings later. We have one world crisis that's going to lead to other crisis that will impact the world economy.
I didn't know where it was and I see someone said it was a helicopter attack that took out the battery.
China has it's own problems that are looming. The video I responded to in my last post goes into them. China is a lot less stable than many people think. But in any case the Chinese strategy has been to sit back, wait for people to make mistakes, then hamstring them financially. They don't want to be allied to Russia or anyone else, they just see Putin as someone else who will be financially strapped and vulnerable in a few months.
Oil is going to be expensive for a while, but with the developed world ramping up their defense spending, it might not happen, or be partially offset by the increased government spending. The US too has the infrastructure bill passed last year that will start spending money this year. That will kick in just as the price of oil starts being felt everywhere else.
China is playing this very carefully. They don't want the world to see them trading with the devil.
That's pretty much impossible. The internet is made up of such a wide array of hardware and software that no virus can hit them all. It's possible they have found a vulnerability in something used quite widely, which could become a mess if triggered, but they won't be able to take down the internet.
What is more of a threat is Russian hacks into infrastructure have been found all over the world. These are basically software bombs that were put in servers controlling infrastructure. Each as an individual case. It's almost certain that not all of it has been found and they have the power to do things like shut down power plants or something like that.
A year or so back somebody hacked a water treatment plant in Florida and tried to dump a toxic level of lye into the water. A worker just happened to see the mouse on his computer move on its own and saw what they were doing and overrode the operation. I think it's still unknown who the hackers were.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Something tells me the oligarchs are just now voting on how quickly to "send Putin to a farm upstate".
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www.reuters.com
EU to phase out Russian gas, oil, coal imports - leaders' draft
European Union leaders will agree at a summit this week to phase out the EU's dependency on imports of Russian gas, oil and coal, a draft statement showed, marking a turning point in its policy towards Moscow prompted by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
www.reuters.com
Prepared for this since 2021
Russia disconnects from internet in tests as it bolsters security - RBC daily
Russia managed to disconnect itself from the global internet during tests in June and July, the RBC daily reported on Thursday, citing documents from the working group tasked with improving Russia's internet security.www.reuters.com
Probably a precursor to beginning full scale cyberwars.
The fall back plan could have always been that Putin is expendable..Something tells me the oligarchs are just now voting on how quickly to "send Putin to a farm upstate".
EU to phase out Russian gas, oil, coal imports - leaders' draft
European Union leaders will agree at a summit this week to phase out the EU's dependency on imports of Russian gas, oil and coal, a draft statement showed, marking a turning point in its policy towards Moscow prompted by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Some suggest he has a serious illness, is in some pain and may die soon anyway.
He might volunteer for early euthanasia, and take one for the team.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
I see nothing in the limited time we have seen him on TV that indicates significant illness. The only exception would be a terminal cancer with poor prognosis, however, that is not yet manifest physically.
Sadly, I don't put much stock in him doing the world a solid and dying soon.
CyberGus
Not Just a Member
This is not The Onion
/cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/4BLUAO5U6RM6NHEQV5FUQ2VEMQ.jpg)
Russia calls on EU, NATO to stop arms supplies to Ukraine
Russia's foreign ministry called on European Union and NATO countries on Saturday to "stop pumping weapons" to Ukraine, the Russian RIA news agency said.
Most legitimate news stories over the last 5 years needed the tagline "This is not The Onion"
MontyFloyd
Member
Tens of thousands of mercenaries from dozens of countries are headed to Ukraine, with permission by countries they are citizens of.
Since they are not in any armed forced, they do not represent a country, thus not an act of war.
Putin has also hired mercenaries, but they are a tiny fraction of Ukraine.
These allied mercs are far better trained and equipped than most Russian troops, or possibly Ukrainian troops.
This report lists 20,000, however I think that is under counting, or not counting those in transit.
www.dailymail.co.uk
Since they are not in any armed forced, they do not represent a country, thus not an act of war.
Putin has also hired mercenaries, but they are a tiny fraction of Ukraine.
These allied mercs are far better trained and equipped than most Russian troops, or possibly Ukrainian troops.
This report lists 20,000, however I think that is under counting, or not counting those in transit.
Nearly 20,000 people have joined Ukraine's 'foreign legion'
The Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said more than 20,000 people from 52 countries have already volunteered to fight in Ukraine, where they will serve in an international legion.
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Russia could reduce Ukraine to rubble with similar methods to what they did with Grozny. Or carpet bombing.
Whether Ukraine wants to fight despite the ultimatum of extreme measures that Russia has given is up to them. I hesitate to encourage it.
MontyFloyd
Member
Take time, good weather, and no SAM.
Russia has none of that.
Plus losses are mounting pretty quickly.
I'm not so sure that the action has been so one-sided and that the Russians are desperate with regard to time. Pick your own perception in the fog of war.
The Strategy That Can Defeat Putin
The U.S.-led coalition of liberal-democratic states should pursue three objectives.
www.theatlantic.com
The Atlantic is simply wonderfully crafted. This article no less than others.
Putin was perfectly happy to let the army bleed itself to death in Chechnya too. I would not guess he's learned anything. Give it 6 months. The USA and EU are just getting going.
Someone has to lead them, someone has to feed them. They can't ask the local granny for lunch. A Ukraine can. They can't read a warning for a landmine, etc etc. I never found volunteers very useful on front lines. Lots of use in support, especially medical and hospitals. Driving trucks, etc. Ukraine had a huge army, it has a large population, there shoud be more than enough local lads able and willing to pick up a gun and with them you eliminate a host of issues.
The international folks just are more burdensome than not in my experience but anyway, maybe Ukrainians figured out some solution. I suspect mostly rah rah propaganda.
I think this is mostly propaganda. Good to boost morale of Ukraines and let them know they are not alone. The truth is that few will speak a local language, fewer still will read a local language. Fewer still will understand the command and control structure. They have to be fed and clothed.Tens of thousands of mercenaries from dozens of countries are headed to Ukraine, with permission by countries they are citizens of.
Since they are not in any armed forced, they do not represent a country, thus not an act of war.
Putin has also hired mercenaries, but they are a tiny fraction of Ukraine.
These allied mercs are far better trained and equipped than most Russian troops, or possibly Ukrainian troops.
This report lists 20,000, however I think that is under counting, or not counting those in transit.
Nearly 20,000 people have joined Ukraine's 'foreign legion'
The Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said more than 20,000 people from 52 countries have already volunteered to fight in Ukraine, where they will serve in an international legion.
Someone has to lead them, someone has to feed them. They can't ask the local granny for lunch. A Ukraine can. They can't read a warning for a landmine, etc etc. I never found volunteers very useful on front lines. Lots of use in support, especially medical and hospitals. Driving trucks, etc. Ukraine had a huge army, it has a large population, there shoud be more than enough local lads able and willing to pick up a gun and with them you eliminate a host of issues.
The international folks just are more burdensome than not in my experience but anyway, maybe Ukrainians figured out some solution. I suspect mostly rah rah propaganda.
I think that Putin just does not care. He has his troops slaughtering civilians and committing war crimes on a daily basis. What does he care if they do that 2 weeks or 6 months. Can they survive next winter...I doubt it. I expect things get very interesting by this fall.
roblab
Active Member
ALL THE MORE REASON to own an electric car. I am NOT RELIANT on Russian oil, nor worried about the price of gasoline going up. I know that Tesla has always refused to advertise, but someone needs to tell Biden that Tesla is years ahead of GM and Ford and VW and Toyota when it comes to running on sunlight and wind, etc. I started installing a few solar panels at a time as I could afford them, and I could afford more as time went on and my electric bill went down, down, down. At this point, PG&E pays ME, and I don't even know the price of gasoline. Don't even care.
The only problem I ever had was while charging near a service station, when a pickup driver came walking over throwing rocks toward my Tesla. I'd be mad, too, if I'd screwed up and bought an oil burner.
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