Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Russia/Ukraine conflict

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
the best overview I have seen is from the Finnish military bloke and he did discuss the issue of mongol period- specifically how it influenced lying and clan/ group issues.

That lecture I did watch. But it was a while ago and is not exactly fresh in memory… And that clan/group issue part has completely faded from memory.

Re: Lying

As I remember it, it boiled down to that the Russians have some additional ways of lying/not telling the truth when communicating in their native language. And understandably that is of importance if you’re basically operating as a Finnish intelligence officer inside of Russia and communicating in Russian…

It is most likely also of importance if you’re dealing with Russians or any kind of translation from Russian.

So…

One the one hand we have these Mongol events that toke place more than 600 years ago. And in the other hand we have all of human history since… What do I think matters most for understanding the current Russian Dictator/Dictatorship?…

I think all of human history since this Mongol period matters more. That, and just basic human psychology.

And with regards to lying and the Russian Dictator/the Kremlin – IMO we can just basically assume that they are always lying.
 
we can just basically assume that they are always lying.

I find Prighozin interesting in that respect. He views lying as entertainment, and if his lies befuddle his enemies then they were most excellent lies indeed, worthy of celebration. That fellow is a psychopath so I hesitate to extrapolate to others, but I do wonder about Russians in general. As for the Russian Gov, it lies freely in pursuit of an agenda rather than just sport.
 
Pre-invasion the Ruble was ~ 75 per $
80 is not a "collapse," but we sure can hope it goes higher. A LOT higher

A devaluation of 20% a month might lead to Russians wondering if they should have a 'don't care' attitude towards the invasion
I did say and meant that the idea (mirage) of the Ruble being stable is collapsing. The stability as Jake points out, was Putin propping up the Ruble with the hard currency he's been hoarding for the past few years. At some point the mirage will bust completely when he runs out which is inevitable.
 
Morning update excerpt....this is not a good look for US Intelligence & it's relationship with allies, etc.:

What leaked​

The documents appear to come from multiple sources, including briefings for the Joint Chiefs of Staff and updates from the C.I.A. Some are marked “top secret.” Many focus on the war in Ukraine. The information falls into three categories:​
Details about ongoing campaigns: The leaked documents describe Ukraine’s struggling air defenses and Western plans for Ukraine’s coming counteroffensive against Russia — details that could help Russia. For example, the leaked slides include maps of Ukrainian air defenses. Those defenses have deterred Russian planes from striking deep into Ukraine for much of the conflict, but the leak could help the Russian military bypass them.​
The documents also disclose information that the U.S. had obtained from its infiltration of Russia’s military intelligence service. Russia could use that information to try to discover American sources and to lock down its own operations to stop leaks to the U.S.​
Broader strategy: The documents also touch on more general assessments about the war in Ukraine, though little is new. For instance, they predict that neither Russia nor Ukraine will make progress this year in breaking the stalemate in Ukraine’s eastern region of Donbas. But U.S. officials openly share this view. “It gives you a sense of how some American officials are coming to the broader, public judgment that neither side is in a position to win in the coming year,” David said.​
Chatter about allies: Some of the most sensitive material in the leaks is about American allies. The documents claim that Mossad, Israel’s intelligence agency, encouraged staff and civilians to participate in recent protests against the government. Israel’s government denied this claim. The documents also reveal the U.S. was listening in on conversations between South Korean officials over whether to help send Ukraine 330,000 rounds of ammunition, potentially in contradiction to South Korea’s stance against providing lethal weapons to nations at war.​
The South Korea leak comes at a particularly bad time — weeks before President Yoon Suk Yeol travels to Washington for a state dinner in his honor. “To have it laid out in detail that we’re listening in on his national security aides is more than a little embarrassing,” David said.​
A few details in the documents also seem to be false or doctored, such as overestimates of Ukrainian casualties in the war. It’s possible Russian officials or others altered the documents before posting, or reposting, them on social media platforms.​
For sure but it's been going on for years and it works both ways. Trust can only go so far. There's gonna be huge embedded asset and technology setback from this one.

I assume it was a data hack. One would hope any one bad actor on the US cybersecurity team couldn't result in this much loss. Otherwise a better answer might be a bad actor on the Ukrainian side.
 
I find Prighozin interesting in that respect. He views lying as entertainment, and if his lies befuddle his enemies then they were most excellent lies indeed, worthy of celebration. That fellow is a psychopath so I hesitate to extrapolate to others, but I do wonder about Russians in general. As for the Russian Gov, it lies freely in pursuit of an agenda rather than just sport.
As they said The news service that was “truth” only had lies and the news service that was “news” had no news .
 
That lecture I did watch. But it was a while ago and is not exactly fresh in memory… And that clan/group issue part has completely faded from memory.

Re: Lying

As I remember it, it boiled down to that the Russians have some additional ways of lying/not telling the truth when communicating in their native language. And understandably that is of importance if you’re basically operating as a Finnish intelligence officer inside of Russia and communicating in Russian…

It is most likely also of importance if you’re dealing with Russians or any kind of translation from Russian.

So…

One the one hand we have these Mongol events that toke place more than 600 years ago. And in the other hand we have all of human history since… What do I think matters most for understanding the current Russian Dictator/Dictatorship?…

I think all of human history since this Mongol period matters more. That, and just basic human psychology.

And with regards to lying and the Russian Dictator/the Kremlin – IMO we can just basically assume that they are always lying.
I that was not his point at all actuality, it was that everyone in Russia expected everything to be lies and respect a clever lie. But there was much more to it than that. It was linked here, it was very good. Finns understand Russia better than anyone in my experience
 
Depending on the post, I either read that Ukrainians and Russians are of the same cloth, or I read that Russians view Ukrainians as sub-human.
I doubt both are true in Russian messaging and decision making. I do accept that the Russian nationalist-fascist contingent view Ukraine as part of Imperial Russia
If my understanding is correct, ethnic Ukrainians are not regarded as different than other ethnic minorities in "Greater Russia". Kiev is regarded as the 'mother city'. Russians in Ukraine who are ethnic Russian are regarded as Russians, unless they ally themselves with the 'Nazi' elements, i.e. non-Russian Ukrainian.

To complete the picture, the Russian leaders tend to see 'the Ukraine' as an integral part of Russia. Historically ethnic Russians have tended to see minorities as useful serfs, menial workers, or common soldiers.

n my opinion the easiest analogue for the western world is to consider how slaves were viewed in the mid-19th century by the slave-holding class. In essence that is not exactly sub-human but certainly is inferior and unsuited for any important governmental role. The core principle to understand is that Russia has never stopped being a feudal society, nor has it stopped thinking in terms nearly identical to western colonial terms of the 19th century.
In short, one never, ever, should make the fundamental error in imagining that Russia really is in any respect 'modern' despite possessing technologies that are sometimes very modern and having a small segment of society that seems very modern and western. All that was true at the time of Peter the Great, as a visit to Saint Petersburg can show, and as central Moscow seemed to be ten years ago. It still is as it was, and Westerners keep being just as confused about it as they were in the 18th century.

Now we really to be understanding the "One China" policy in all its ambiguity, furthered by desires to ameliorate commercial Chinese relationships. This is now almost inextricably linked to The Russia Ukraine conflict because the two cases are similar in some ways and both now are becoming fraught.

If there is any chance to avoid catastrophe it will require mature and dispassionate understanding of both Russia and China. Personally I am not optimistic.

My first commercial dealings with China were in 1978 with a Middle Eastern bank I ran established formal correspondent with the Bank of China. My Russia experience came a bit earlier when I was in Iran and dealt with Russians on commercial matters. I learned a great deal then and afterwards, just enough to understand that we are in uncharted waters led primarily with people who have minimal understand. Again, I claim only to understand enough to realize the odds are increasing for unpleasant solutions. The primary protagonists right now seem to be around my age. That is terrible news! Old people have rigid thinking. China, Russia and the US leaders are thinking of the world as it was.
 
As for Russian lying, I was going to write about my experience. Then I remembered something I read years ago while in Moscow and it covers the highlights. I'll call it the CliffsNotes of Russian lying for those of you familiar with them. While the article was written over a decade ago, it is still very much on point.

 
I find Prighozin interesting in that respect. He views lying as entertainment, and if his lies befuddle his enemies then they were most excellent lies indeed, worthy of celebration. That fellow is a psychopath so I hesitate to extrapolate to others, but I do wonder about Russians in general. As for the Russian Gov, it lies freely in pursuit of an agenda rather than just sport.
I think these behaviours are exhibited by quite a lot of people, not just some Russians. I would also suggest that it is necessary to exhibit these behaviours to succeed within certain groups, including those at the top in Russia right now. Their fellow travellers in the West are also notable for their behaviour in exactly the same manner.
 
Kyiv Independent has an article about the Dictator's use of 500kg and 1500kg glide bombs. The Dictator has now started using them against frontline areas since the cruise missiles seem to be in short supply. Theses glide bombs are a serious problem for Ukraine and the only effective countermeasures here are Western 4th gen fighter aircraft, as you cannot group air defenses with sufficient reach within close enough range to the front. If UKR SAM-sites are grouped to close to the front the Dictator's artillery can target those SAM sites trough 'signals intelligence' or visually via drones. Ideally, F-16s (or some such) and AIM-120 AMRAAM air-to-air missiles would be needed to achieve sufficient capability to strike Russian attack aircraft which drop the bombs a few miles in over occupied land and then immediately turn around again.

The 1500kg glide bombs have at least been used against Avdiivka, where one such bomb can level an entire block.


Credit goes to (in Swedish):
 
The formerly Swedish Absolut [Vodka] Company, which is now owned by Pernod Ricard, has begun exporting to Russia again, they write in an email to (the Swedish newspaper) Kristianstadbladet. There has been a halt to these exports, but they have now continued to sell what was in stock around Russia, and now when that stock is empty they are exporting again. See also article at Dagens Industri (another Swedish paper).

So now you know what alcohol not to buy.

Pernod Ricard includes brands such as Jacob's Creek, Campo Vieyo, Chivas Regal, Royal Salute, Jameson, Havana Club, Absolut, Ballantines, Glenlivet, Beefeater, Kahlua, Balibu, Minttu, Mumm and Perrier-Jouet champagne, etc. including a number of Polish vodkas. Complete list available at Wikipedia.

Credit goes to (in Swedish):
 
Last edited:
There is allegedly new footage and photos that 'has surfaced' showing torture killings of Ukrainian POWs. I'll will spare you the details and leave it at that.

Credit again goes to (in Swedish):
 
The formerly Swedish Absolut [Vodka] Company, which is now owned by Pernod Ricard, has begun exporting to Russia again, they write in an email to (the Swedish newspaper) Kristianstadbladet. There has been a halt to these exports, but they have now continued to sell what was in stock around Russia, and now when that stock is empty they are exporting again. See also article at Dagens Industri (another Swedish paper).

So now you know what alcohol not to buy.

Pernod Ricard includes brands such as Jacob's Creek, Campo Vieyo, Chivas Regal, Royal Salute, Jameson, Havana Club, Absolut, Ballantines, Glenlivet, Beefeater, Kahlua, Balibu, Minttu, Mumm and Perrier-Jouet champagne, etc. including a number of Polish vodkas. Complete list available at Wikipedia.

Credit goes to (in Swedish):
It’s embedded globally in human nature but Id suggest that more than others, the French and Germans tend to put economic interests ahead of anything else.
 
It’s embedded globally in human nature but Id suggest that more than others, the French and Germans tend to put economic interests ahead of anything else.
The French president just made some remarks in China about not being vassals to the US (it was made in regards to Taiwan, but could also apply to the Ukraine):

Not familiar with French politics (maybe the French public supports this idea also), but the EU in general didn't seem very receptive to be idea and overall seems to have an impression Macron's China trip gave a huge PR win to China, while accomplishing essentially nothing to get them to change their stance on Ukraine or Taiwan (perhaps even emboldening them on the latter).

I personally seriously doubt if the US and EU do not cooperate fully, that either Ukraine or Taiwan can be handled well. I'm sure Russia and China would love it if EU and US parted ways militarily.
 
The formerly Swedish Absolut [Vodka] Company, which is now owned by Pernod Ricard, has begun exporting to Russia again, they write in an email to (the Swedish newspaper) Kristianstadbladet. There has been a halt to these exports, but they have now continued to sell what was in stock around Russia, and now when that stock is empty they are exporting again. See also article at Dagens Industri (another Swedish paper).

So now you know what alcohol not to buy.

Pernod Ricard includes brands such as Jacob's Creek, Campo Vieyo, Chivas Regal, Royal Salute, Jameson, Havana Club, Absolut, Ballantines, Glenlivet, Beefeater, Kahlua, Balibu, Minttu, Mumm and Perrier-Jouet champagne, etc. including a number of Polish vodkas. Complete list available at Wikipedia.

Credit goes to (in Swedish):
Please explain why this is bad. It takes their money and of they drink enough their judgement gets worse. Buying from them I get but this confuses me. I do admit that I'm not used to such deep water.
 
About a year ago Russian media said British special forces were directing Ukrainian soldiers on the ground in Ukraine.Implicitly saying the Ukrainians didn't have the capacity to effectively fight off the Russian Army. Sometimes saying so explicitly.

1681243520054.png
 
Please explain why this is bad. It takes their money and of they drink enough their judgement gets worse. Buying from them I get but this confuses me. I do admit that I'm not used to such deep water.

I can think of a few, but perhaps the most important is that it opens a hole in the dike. Countries should no more trade with Russia that they should trade with N. Korea. A united front against Russia is really important.

I say that as someone who views Western purchase of Russian fossils as a deal with the devil. At least the Europeans seem to have got the message and are reducing their dependence on Russia post-haste