yes and I'd say that it is obviously well understood. Brilliant stuff, the shaping is ...brilliant. They need the next round of material to support a second phase of attacks and more still to replace losses. I'd say they have what they need now but they need to close the gap between the abrams and now. Every day of delay helps. They have russia driving tanks around on trailers to keep them mobile. bwhahahahahaha
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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
I’m sticking with my prediction of Russia’s speedy demise; Russia is getting hit again and again and they’re progressively getting helpless.
But I’m mostly sharing this video because the guy with the naval signal flags looks like Porky Pig… or else Tim Conway as a flag man, stopping to scratch his back, getting a flag stuck down his shirt right when he needs to send an important 2-flag message.
(Sorry, I’ll see myself out now…)
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The tracked articulated APC are an interesting Swedish design licensed by many NATO armies as their obligation to be able to operate in swamps or deep snows. I hypothesize they could cross the salt lagoons of the crimea. They now have over 100 of these vehicles.
lolachampcar
Well-Known Member
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Um, yup. Sticking with my prediction, yes, now seeing my self back out.
Mentioned this above. If I don’t know the source I assume it’s BS.
BitJam
Active Member
Here is a great interview with Candace Rondeaux. I had not heard of her before. She's the senior director of an open-source public intelligence service. She has a lot of interesting insights.
Here are some of the things I found interesting or surprising:
Here are some of the things I found interesting or surprising:
- Progozhin is speaking for Putin
- The shrill far-right is constraining what Putin can do
- Putin is in a no-win situation. He was in a no-win situation before he started this war which is why he started this war
- The war won't be over tomorrow, it won't be over next year [...] we are very much on an escalatory path now
The hypocrisy is insane.
A quick search showed this story making the rounds in March and it went away for a while when the French said it wasn't happening.
If the plan is to give up the Donbas to try and save Crimea, that's insane. When the Ukrainians get to the Azoz, they will have the ability to shut down all sea traffic in the Azoz and the Kerch Bridge, which turns Crimea into more of a trap than a possession.
Transporting tanks via truck trailers is common. Russia has mostly used trains instead of tank transporters, but pretty much every army uses them. This is the US Army version:
Oshkosh M1070 - Wikipedia
Tank treads wear out fairly quickly, they are a much more complex mechanism than wheels. The engine and transmission are also tasked with moving a lot of weight around and they are difficult to repair and/or have short life spans. The transmission on the T-34 was only rated for 1500 miles.
Russia's army is in bad shape, but using tank transporters is not really an indication of weakness. Of course if they are only using tank transporters because the tanks won't move on their own, then that is a sign of weakness.
The Freedom of Russia legion has crossed the border into Russia again
The Freedom of Russia Legion is claiming responsibility for the drone attacks on Moscow
The Freedom of Russia Legion is claiming responsibility for the drone attacks on Moscow
BitJam
Active Member
If they are indeed crossing into Russia again then the real offensive may not be far off. I would expect a much larger incursion into Russia before the main attack to take back Ukraine begins.
I posted a link to the interview in your 2nd link about 3 weeks ago. Ponomarev was talking about the drone attacks on the Kremlin right before Victory Day. So that tweet saying the interview shows him taking credit for the recent drone attacks on Moscow is bogus.
Thanks for the clarification, though it is possible the same people are behind the recent attack too.
BitJam
Active Member
Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake
Maybe Ukraine are okay with saying that counteroffensive will happen in
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
I keep hearing this in the media from various figures (and from time to time), though I do think the frequency has decreased recently. But that could of course just be the news sources that I'm listening to...
But who is it in the West that is pushing for a change on this? It seems to me that the only ones doing this is two presidential candidates in the US and a couple of fringe members of the US House of Representatives. How many more from this fringe could get elected to the US Congress in the next election?
Seems to me that the task here is to make the political position whining about support for Ukraine absolutely untenable and a 100% guarantee for defeat in any US election. I guess there may continue to be some kind of small fringe in the US Congress like we have today, but as long as this anti-Ukriane position is contained to a small fringe – how is it going to be able to exert any kind of impactful influence?
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SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
The point on the tanks being on tank carriers is that it doesn’t really change the risk to the tank it just mean the Ukrainians will get a tank and truck and lowboy. What they really need is an effective drone shield. Or they need a deeper front but the backs are to Sea of Azov.
I agree that Ukraine is unlikely to let Russia retain Crimea. Just that when smoke clears after round 1 that may be all they retain. Speaking of loading equipment I need to do the same , have lowboys coming very soon about the same weight as a russian MBT. No drones thank goodness
I should add they have commitments for over 100. These apcs are great for swamps snow or Ukrainian winter/springs but not so useful now.
They should have the 100 by early fall.
Tiger
Active Member
From today's perspecive, what as so bad before the war that it would justify starting (or continuing) the war? The people still seem to think he is the man and there are no contenders (except Prigožin who may or may not be speaking for Putin).
Putin wanted to reassemble the russian empire, it was self induced delusion. Longer term though they were about to lose the leverage of petroleum. but he had several years.
So the very strong suspicion in the USA is that things like this
are indeed Ukrainian intelligence activities.
So the very strong suspicion in the USA is that things like this
are indeed Ukrainian intelligence activities.
