Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
03 Jun: Russians MADE AN HUGE MISTAKE. Multiple Bases Wiped Out | War in Ukraine Explained | Reporting From Ukraine (5 min ago)
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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
BitJam
Active Member
I agree the article does not match other things I've heard. Somehow I doubt the situation is as dire as the article makes it seem. I'd think and hope that competent, knowledgeable grownups have a good grasp of the larger picture.
I'm reminded of the story of the blind men and the elephant where each one feels a different part of an elephant and they all reach vastly different conclusion about what an elephant is. The authors of this article seem legit. They are the co-founders of the relatively small Ukraine Defense Support Group.
Even if the Russians read and believed this article, I don't think it would cause them to make changes that would be an advantage to Ukraine. From what's in the article there's no reason for Russia to slack off on preparing as best they can for a well-coordinated combined arms attack.
Two things struck me about this article. First, in a rare video interview, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said that rooting out the old Soviet system was one of his highest priorities. This lends credence to some of what is in the article but also gives me hope that people at the highest levels are not blind to the problem.
The second thing that struck me was this quote: "most of the units we train go to the front the day after we finish a training session". We already knew there was a large variance in the training and equipment Ukrainian soldiers are receiving. The A-teams are being held back for extensive training and will get the best equipment. Troops with less training and less optimal equipment are being sent to the front right away. The article seems to be almost entirely about training for these second string troops.
It's well known that soldiers often over-generalize from their particular situation to the entire war effort. I would not be surprised if that's what happened here. It seems much more likely that some people at a relatively low level don't get to see the entire picture, rather then people at the highest levels being so incompetent that they endanger the success of the entire counter-offensive.
Up until now Ukraine's planning and execution have been superb. I don't expect that to suddenly change when the counter-offensive starts. Yes, Ukrainian soldiers with less than adequate training and less that adequate equipment are being sent to the front. We already knew that. We also know that the best trained troops with the best equipment are still being held in reserve.
petit_bateau
Active Member
Irrespective of what one thinks about the author's conclusions, there is some interesting reading in this. Winning at war requires a team effort.
"the longestranged shoot-down of the war was a Russian victory at 150 kilometers against a Ukrainian aircraft flying at less than 50 feet. The target was found with a Podlet K1 all-altitude radar, and was struck by a radar-guided missile that locked on after cresting over its apex"
"Ukrainians have consistently been asking for both fixed- and rotary-wing combat aircraft"
"in the long-term, undertake marketing to change service culture."
"the longestranged shoot-down of the war was a Russian victory at 150 kilometers against a Ukrainian aircraft flying at less than 50 feet. The target was found with a Podlet K1 all-altitude radar, and was struck by a radar-guided missile that locked on after cresting over its apex"
"Ukrainians have consistently been asking for both fixed- and rotary-wing combat aircraft"
"in the long-term, undertake marketing to change service culture."
petit_bateau
Active Member
Gotta laugh
"Le Pen’s far right served as mouthpiece for the Kremlin, says French parliamentary report
Dogged by accusations of proximity to the Kremlin, Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally party had hoped to clear its name by setting up a parliamentary inquiry to investigate foreign interference in French politics. But a draft report on the committee’s findings, which was leaked to the press this week, shows the move backfired spectacularly, finding instead that Le Pen’s policy stances sometimes echo the “official language of Putin’s regime”."
www.france24.com
as Sushko says, "Hilarious self-own by Kremlin asset Marine Le Pen: Demands a parliamentary inquiry to investigate foreign interference in French politics. Report concludes she is Putin's puppet. The inquiry was chaired by her own party member."
"Le Pen’s far right served as mouthpiece for the Kremlin, says French parliamentary report
Dogged by accusations of proximity to the Kremlin, Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally party had hoped to clear its name by setting up a parliamentary inquiry to investigate foreign interference in French politics. But a draft report on the committee’s findings, which was leaked to the press this week, shows the move backfired spectacularly, finding instead that Le Pen’s policy stances sometimes echo the “official language of Putin’s regime”."
Le Pen’s far right served as mouthpiece for the Kremlin, says French parliamentary report
Dogged by accusations of proximity to the Kremlin, Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally party had hoped to clear its name by setting up a parliamentary inquiry to investigate foreign interference…
www.france24.com
as Sushko says, "Hilarious self-own by Kremlin asset Marine Le Pen: Demands a parliamentary inquiry to investigate foreign interference in French politics. Report concludes she is Putin's puppet. The inquiry was chaired by her own party member."
petit_bateau
Active Member
Russian losses seem awfully high for a force that is largely now in a defensive posture
I would not be surprised if the Soviet system has not been routed out of the National Guard units.
Mark Hertling and Ben Hodges were directly involved in training Ukrainians between 2014 and 2021. They have both talked about how they worked to foster an NCO corps in the Ukrainian army. They said they made a lot of progress with that, but it was probably more with the first string units than with the lower tier units like the National Guard.
I'm not surprised that the article reported headaches logistically with all the different equipment types.
Overall the article struck me as taking some problems that actually exist and exaggerating them while playing down the upsides.
The Storm Shadows have been very busy the last couple of weeks. From what I've been seeing the Ukrainians have been tracking Russian equipment and personnel movement and have been taking out equipment whenever they spot it. the loitering munitions have been very active too.
The Russian rebels invading Belgorod has forced the Russians to move units back to Russia to counter the rebels. That has given Ukraine a lot of opportunities to take out vehicles trying to relocate.
It's a great opportunity for Ukraine. Take out a lot of equipment like this is the best possible scenario for Ukraine. That helps the Russian rebels and the Ukrainians.
According to David DeMorrow's calculations, the Russians are down to their last 3000 artillery pieces, possibly as low as 1000.
A lot of those Russian gun barrels are getting so worn that they have horrible accuracy at this point.
He's also made the case that a lot of Russian equipment is not listed as destroyed by the Ukrainians because they are broken down beyond repair and are behind the lines being cannibalized for parts. He found a video from somewhere around Kursk where there was a field of Russian vehicles completely stripped of every part possible.
Yes indeed. Here are some guesses:
The Chechans tried to capture a small town south of Donetsk..Marinka ?sp? . Apparently it went terribly wrong.
Then also the Ukrainians have been hitting the rear mobile reserves in the south when they pulled units from Kremenia /Svatove line and sent them to Mariopul and other port cities (VDV units at that). I am not sure which accounts for the most losses. Maybe neither? Ukrainian operational security...got to love it.
So who is David DeMorrow? Ok, looked him up. Military junkie. He's not connected to the OSINT community though. If the ChrisO_wiki made a pronouncement like that we'd say ok..there are intelligence bonafides there. When Wagner made that last push into Bahkmut the city burned. By all accounts the ground was shaking. That was all artillery and that was a couple of weeks ago.
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Thread by @WarintheFuture on Thread Reader App
@WarintheFuture: As Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has noted over the weekend, #Ukraine is ready for its coming offensives. H-Hour (the time set for a planned attack) for the forthcoming Ukrainian offensives will hav...…
threadreaderapp.com
Mick Ryan on the timing. An important "sell by date" is the NATO meeting July 11th. They'll need to have significant progress by then. Lithuania...announcing a grand victory over russians while NATO is meeting in Lithuania. That really would be so rich I don't see how the Ukrainian side resists. We must be getting very close now.
Also a cautionary note. Despite all claims that Russia is running out of cruise missiles etc they have managed to significantly increase the pace of attacks in the last couple of weeks. At least 2 attacks hit military installations, then last night there was another on an airfield. Russia is learning.
For all those that talk about drones attacking russians the exact same thing is happening in reverse. Russians are killing many Ukrainian soldiers and pieces of equipment with drones.
I'm hoping for swift victory, as few losses as possible for Ukraine and the people of Ukraine. I have no idea how Ukraine plans to conduct attacks in the built up cities. To date they have SunTzu'd this issue and the russians have retreated from Kherson. Will they pull out of Mariopul? No idea
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Tiger
Active Member
lolachampcar
Well-Known Member
Elon is a fantastic engineer and his issues give him tremendous target fixation which really helps engineers/engineering managers get things done. All that said, what kind of human is he? I'm really beginning to question this.
What does this have to do with Elon himself? Twitter is not Elon. And perhaps if somebody raised the issue in a reasonable way, which that person did not, he could take action on that sort of thing.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Could be some unintended consequences of changes, things don't always work as expected on that platform and many other media sites. People on YouTube are often getting de-monitized or banned mistakenly because of automatic settings or false reporting.
Tiger
Active Member
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
One of the Russian Dictator's latest victims.
EDIT: It appears that linking to this post about a little two year-old girl that was just murdered by the Russian Dictator is being censored somehow by Twitter. You can find it on Twitter directly by going to this Twitter-account:
@JayinKyiv
As I'm writing this the post is some 3 hours old.
EDIT 2: Instead of linking to Twitter I copy/pasted the picture instead.
EDIT: It appears that linking to this post about a little two year-old girl that was just murdered by the Russian Dictator is being censored somehow by Twitter. You can find it on Twitter directly by going to this Twitter-account:
@JayinKyiv
As I'm writing this the post is some 3 hours old.
EDIT 2: Instead of linking to Twitter I copy/pasted the picture instead.
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SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
Inserted the picture into the previous post.
Five more children have been affected by the Russian Dictator's attack on the suburbs of the city of Dnipro. Three of them are in critical condition.
In total 22 civilans were injured.
www.ukrinform.net
Five more children have been affected by the Russian Dictator's attack on the suburbs of the city of Dnipro. Three of them are in critical condition.
In total 22 civilans were injured.
Three children in critical condition following Russiaâs attack on suburbs of Dnipro
Five children have been affected by Russia’s attack on the suburbs of the city of Dnipro. Three of them are in critical condition. â Ukrinform.
www.ukrinform.net
navguy12
Active Member
I am not an Elon apologist, but if he didn’t okay the heavy and continued use of Starlink in Ukraine when this war started, the war could have been lost.
