Tiger
Active Member
Maybe 9/11 was orchestrated and this is act two?
Did someone short this?#followthemoney
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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
Maybe 9/11 was orchestrated and this is act two?
Did someone short this?#followthemoney
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
I sort of assumed the Chinese people are seeing what we see, but do they?
Victor 🇷🇺 Z's tweet - "Nicknamed by some bloggers as “Jackie Chan’s brother,” Liu Yu Guang, a military commander of the Chinese television channel Phoenix TV, reports from the village of Sopino, Donetsk region, and states the horrors perpetrated by U
Detailed Tweet Analytics for Victor 🇷🇺 Z's tweet - russianwww.trendsmap.com
It seems they are fed the same propaganda as the Russians do?
Or do they have access to both? Anyone from china here, is this too small fish to fry in mainland?
Chinese people do not see what we see. I'm not sure if everyone is aware, but they have even less access to open internet and international news sources than Russians do (this has been long running, not just recent):
Great Firewall - Wikipedia
And if you want to see their official position, look no further than them refusing to call this war an invasion:
China refuses to call Russian attack on Ukraine an ‘invasion,’ deflects blame to U.S.
A position they continue to strongly hold when asked more recently:
又被問｢俄羅斯是不是入侵烏克蘭｣ 趙立堅崩潰：你這樣糾纏有意思嗎
They also peddle the same exact disinformation Russia is using (which the conservatives here in the US are unfortunately falling once again hook, line, and sinker for):
China amplifies unsupported Russian claim of Ukraine biolabs
China has taken steps to squash any pro-Ukraine messages:
Chinese censors delete academics' post decrying Russian invasion | Taiwan News | 2022-02-27 12:45:00
Censorship instructions have been leaked:
Chinese censorship instructions for Ukraine leaked | Taiwan News | 2022-02-23 16:49:00
This article gives a general overview of the whole situation within China as it relates to the war:
China cracks down on pro-Ukrainian voices
Although China have also started censoring posts that are overly pro-war (for fear of threatening lives of Chinese still in Ukraine), that they are still pushing pro-Russia views (and clamp down on any pro-Ukraine posts in a disproportionate fashion), and most Chinese are pro-Russia as a result.
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You won’t find true figures for either side at this juncture, why give that information out for your enemy to use? (Something that’s forgotten in the modern world with open book information etc). Makes me wonder what would’ve happened in WW2 if the amount of information we just freely fling about nowadays had happened then. All those posters spring to mind such as “Loose lips sink ships” etc and yet nowadays with the media it’s like chucking a bleeding seal in the midst of a load of sharks.
Russian losses (official ones) will probably remain a secret for a long time unless Putin is ousted or dies. Ukrainian losses will not be published fully (truthfully) until after it’s over. The Russians don’t want to admit how many lives it’s cost (especially to their own population), Ukraine will (quite possibly) over inflate Russian losses, maybe even their own civilian ones too. The use of media is a weapon being used by both sides.
The information is sketchy and both sides have incentives to lie. I have cringed at some of the information that has gotten out. I noticed the Ukrainians are getting better at tamping down information that might help the Russians. For example last week we heard almost every day how many supplies were being brought into Ukraine from the west. Now we hear almost nothing, but the Ukrainians aren't complaining, so the arms are still flowing they are just keeping quiet about what.
Looking at the low level stuff like destroyed equipment does not give you any numbers, but it gives you a feel for the losses. I have seen the same vehicle knocked out from different angles a few times, but it's rare. Most of the posts about knocked out vehicles are unique from one another. If somebody was trying to artificially give the impression that vehicles destroyed were more than actual, I would be seeing the same vehicle over and over again. The fact that so many knocked out Russian vehicles are appearing on social media is indicative that at least some of the Ukrainian claims are real.
The US DoD today claimed that they think that the Russians have lost about 10% of their force. They wouldn't say that without a legion of analysts doing what I'm doing in a more formal way and creating a tally of known destroyed equipment.
What I'm saying are guesses, but they are educated guesses. Probably none of it is 100% accurate, but I'm making every attempt to be in the ballpark.
Many of the retired US officers have been talking about logistics and Russian logistics suck. Especially when they get beyond the Russian rail network, which they have. Russia can inflict a lot of damage on Ukraine, but they can't win a conventional war unless Ukraine surrenders and Ukraine knows that.
Russell, don't do Putin's job for him. There is no evidence other than something the Russians made up when the war started going bad that there is any kind of military biolab or chemical warfare facility in Ukraine.
If there was any real evidence, Russia would have presented it to the world and would have likely done so before the invasion. This is what I was talking about fake news sources make stuff up that comes out of nowhere and whatever their narrative the day before is just forgotten.
Great list.
OK this is a biased source, but if things were going well Putin would not be asking for help from Syria.
He has recently sailed his luxury yacht back in harbour, clearly he intends to live.
Sooner or later one side needs to give way in the negotiations.
Ukraine is adding some handy foreign fighters, the general mobilisation is progressing well with soldiers being trained in a systematic manner.
Time is a valuable commodity for the Ukrainian side.
To be clear, the Russians are regrouping to restore combat capability, or at least aiming to do that.
They are also losing a lot of well known commanders, that will help change public and military opinion back in Russia.
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JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Interesting thread on happenings in Russia from someone purported to be there
The motto since WW II has been to never appease autocrats, but historically autocrats who just want limited things can be appeased. Paying tribute to keep the potential enemies from attacking has been done for thousands of years and many times the payees didn't end up getting conquered.
However, a maniacal leader with grand plans beyond the current conquest can't be appeased. Anything you agree to today that puts you in a weaker position in the future just gives the enemy time to regroup before walking in and taking you over.
Ukraine is in the position of Great Britain in 1940. When Chamberlain's government fell there were many who wanted to make peace with Hitler. One almost became PM instead of Churchill. Churchill saw the pattern of Hitler's conquests and knew that any peace agreement they made with Hitler would leave the UK weakened and an easier target when Hitler came back. Churchill knew Britain was going to suffer horribly, but also knew it was the only course that would keep Britain free. It's said that when Churchill heard about Pearl Harbor his first comment was "so we have won after all!"
With this invasion Russia has taken some serious wounds and is bleeding out. Ukraine has taken some serious wounds too, but they are all survivable.
If Ukraine agrees to any of Russia's terms to end the pain short term, Russia will be back in a few years and it will be worse. If Zelensky holds out, this threat may be gone for good or severely diminished. Ukraine is going to have billions poured into the country to rebuild after the war both from other governments and private sources. Ukraine was sort of bottom of the European pecking order going into this war, but their esteem has risen dramatically, they can cash in on this and become one of the stronger EU nations.
There is another video from this attack of the tank that did the attack. It was a single Ukrainian T-80 that made a couple of shots and got out of there.
The Ukrainians are showing they have learned how to make coordinated attacks in the western style. They have a lot of recon drones, probably more than attack drones. There have been several of these videos released lately showing the footage from the drone that was probably being used to spot for the hidden anti-tank assets. The two are probably in complete communication.
On the one hand this is probably Ukrainian propaganda. These attacks are real, but they are probably not that common.
With the Russian messaging changing dramatically from day to day, they are showing signs of panic. The Ukrainians on the other hand are excellent at messaging discipline. Their narrative from all government sources has been consistent since day 1.
Both sides are resorting to mercenaries. Understandable to Ukraine, they are on defense and weaker in just about every way. But for the attacker to start calling for mercenaries two weeks into the attack is a definite sign of weakness.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Putin is boned. No way fwd, only out:
Vladimir Putin is finished, with no way back into the international community: Scaramucci | CNBC
This is the 4th letter from March 10 translated from a supposed FSB agent, the first 3 can be found on the same Twitter account:
And just today we have a raid on the FSB:
And just today we have a raid on the FSB:
Yup, and that's why the Ukrainian president should focus more on minimizing additional human casualties. I don't believe Putin will come back later and try it again..the guy is over. His entire country collapsed into the 3rd world over night. Ukraine doesn't need to worry about being invaded by a country with the economy size of South Dakota.
Maybe Zelensky is too focused on getting areas like Crimea back from Russia,
This has been my assessment all all along, as long a Ukraine can join the EU, and be rebuild with funds, and help from the West, it will develop into an economic powerhouse.
Raw materials, tech skills, workforce, a lot of the raw ingredients are there.
If both sides are hanging out for a win all contested points, this will drag out, further sapping both countries.
What is sensible is if both step back, look at the big picture, and make a few concessions,
In the end if Ukraine develops like I expect, and Russia declines as I expect, any Russia territories captured in Ukraine will want to join Ukraine.
Don't worry about getting the land now, it will come back painlessly in future.
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EVNow
Well-Known Member
Russia wants Ukraine to be a colony - not an independent state. It used to be a colony pre-Maidan .... and they want to get back there. Putin thinks USA engineered the "Maidan Coup" .... so feels justified in doing what he is doing now.
Its the same s**t all over again - great powers butchering lot of people in the middle for their games. Been happening for hundreds of years ....
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I agree the initial aim was a colony, and a rebuilding of the USSR.
But the Russians now know that any puppet government needs a permanent occupying force of at least 500,000, the insurgency will continue, and sanctions will remain. And they are not even close to installing the puppet government, they might not be able to do it.
Success will be like Afghanistan only 10X worse, failure is total humiliation.
The 3rd outcome is a negotiated settlement, and the only hope of getting the sanctions lifted is a fair settlement.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Stinger isn't shooting down any stealth fighters. Helicopters? Ocassionally. Fast movers at altitude? Nearly impossible. Stealth? Doesn't matter much when the target acquistion system is a human operator > 5 km away, in a tail chase, with a missile that's barely faster than the tgt...
They might need some special gear that purpose.
Maybe that is coming over the border, maybe it isn't, but Russia doesn't seem in a rush to risk these expensive planes..
Bad weather, equipment malfunction, pilot error, or an extremely lucky shot can down a plane.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Also seen on twitter:
Q. "What is Lukash arming his infantry with, potato guns?"
A. "They don't have any potatoes".
Ukraine Accuses Moscow Of 'False Flag' Operation To Lure Belarus ... www.rferl.org › ukraine-belarus-false-flag-operation-russia
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
See video. That fast mover was WELL under 5k feet. At that altitude, a stinger is a perfect weapon against it, stealth or not.
Stinger does Mach 2.54, and gets to that pretty darn quick. No fast mover at 5k feet is doing Mach 2, not even close.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Haha, this is so SOVIET! Back in WW2, the Red Army had whole units called "Barrage Batallions" that followed lead units in an attack, and fired on them if they tried to withdraw. So typically stupid. That way, your units can't manoever, and your enemy KNOWS they will only move one direction (until they enter the kill zone, that is: preregistered Divisional Artillery targets, the real killer of the Red Army).
80 years, the soviets have learned nothing, probably haven't changed their underwear, either. Funny, if not so sad.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
See video. That fast mover was WELL under 5k feet. At that altitude, a stinger is a perfect weapon against it, stealth or not.
Stinger does Mach 2.54, and gets to that pretty darn quick. No fast mover at 5k feet is doing Mach 2, not even close.
I GUARANTEE that no "1-of-5" prototype Russian Stealth Fighter is flying at 5K' AGM. Back in '91, even the F-117 "Night Hawks" bombed Baghdad air defences from over 20K feet to stay above most of the 23mm flak (which is unguided, but can be deadly in enough volume).
My Army roommate back in those years was a Troop Commander for an ADATS battery at the Air Defence Artillery School in Chatham, NB. I just called him up to hear what he thinks. He said yeah, a MANPADS might have a chance if the fighter was at 5K alt, but he wouldn't expect them to operate a high-value a/c like that. Their purpose is to penetrate air defence zones and to attack sensors and command elements. Even then, you would prefer to use drones and/or cruise missiles to soften up the defences first, to lower the risk to high-value equipment and irreplaceable human pilots.
Propaganda is the cheapest form of munition.
Cheers!
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Richard Engel of NBC News started out the war in Mariapol (he's now in Kyiv). He said the Ukrainians in the eastern part of the country mostly spoke Russian, but that doesn't make them pro-Russian. He said many of the poorer Ukrainians in that regiong were mildly pro-Russia before the war because they were looking for something different that might improve their fortunes. Similar to many poor populations in other countries.
He said the war completely changed that. Those mildly pro-Russians are now rapidly anti-Russian.
Economically Crimea is important for Ukraine. Since the Russians took it they closed the straight into the Sea of Azoz which effectively made a number of Ukrainian ports almost useless. Ukraine exports a lot of grain, they need those ports to be open and operational.
Maybe the Ukrainians will give in on the territorial claims, but the Russians' conditions keep changing every day. Some days they sound like they are beginning to give a little, then the next day their demands are more extreme. The Russians are showing a lot of signs as a government in panic.
Stealth aircraft are sub-sonic. Being supersonic kind of negates all the stealth ability.
As others have said, they would be operating at higher altitude.
This is the sort of issue that could be sorted out as part of any peace deal.
There could also be some royalty split on the Gas in Crimea.
And Ukraine could allow water to flow to Crimea - for a price.
Peace is a lot cheaper than war for both parties, and allows economic development with confidence.
One the other hand the continuing war is very painful for both parties, for lots of (different) reasons.
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