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Russia/Ukraine conflict

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You’re absolutely right, and it’s happening in real time. Here’s an article about Russians downloading VNP (virtual private networks) to get information:



Virtual private networks have surged in Russia in the aftermath of its invasion of Ukraine — and in even greater numbers since the country's crackdown on mass media.

In total, the top 10 VPN apps have been downloaded more than 4.6 million times in Russia since the beginning of the invasion Feb. 24. This allows Russian users to browse the internet freely despite countrywide bans.

Here’s an article on how activists are sneaking news into Russia:


“We’ve seen the powerful role that civil society can play in telling the story of Ukraine, advocating for its interests, and rallying international support,” says Jack Pearson, a foreign policy communications specialist who previously worked for the UK Foreign Office specializing in digital diplomacy. “Now we’re seeing efforts from communities around the world to break the Kremlin’s information stranglehold, to reach ordinary Russians.”

My analysis is that the greater the lie Putin spins, the greater the setback he’ll face in the end. The longer this drags out, the effectiveness of his misinformation campaign diminishes. Putin is bluffing, Ukraine needs to call his bluff and press on.
Russian business has used VPN's for years. They used PPTP almost formats' beginning, when a Microsoft clever guy invented it. When Wikileaks happened and Russian data restrictions plus Estonian hackers, (the same people who invited Skype a few years later) Russian business people became even more paranoid, especially as they dependency on Cyprus, et al skyrocketed. Once VPN itself made it really easy and helped both security and easy global telephony/data movement, Russian business moved very, very fast.

Since, as data security issues, data espionage and data as a manipulative force combined all this because a central focus, and the smart young ones split between government and private. Bizarrely all of this has remained a bit short from really widespread. The security forces wanted to manipulate but not to educate the low level military , even Generals. The business types want to keep this close too, so to reduce they own risk from things like ATM network penetration.

Fast forward to now. The Ukrainians have pretty adept technologies, aided in major ways by the always up-to-the-second Estonians who pretty much lead the world (to the chagrin of the US, Indian, Chinese etc who really wish that were not so). Now we have the Ukrainian child, now 31, Deputy Prime Minister
Fedorov Mykhailo who recruits Elon Musk, Tim Cook and others and who knows exactly how all these things really work.

Bluntly, all this tech is one huge reason for Ukraine success, The savvy Russians know it, but the best fo them don't mind screwing up the odd foreign election, but they really, really don't want interference from an elderly technophobe with delusions of grandeur. So...we are at today. Many of those people once were part of the nuclear brain force, but moved to business in Moscow and Saint Petersburg.

Note: This combines things I know and things that seem likely to me. I might be quite wrong. The history pert is pretty much accurate, if very, very superficial.
 
Russian business has used VPN's for years. They used PPTP almost formats' beginning, when a Microsoft clever guy invented it. When Wikileaks happened and Russian data restrictions plus Estonian hackers, (the same people who invited Skype a few years later) Russian business people became even more paranoid, especially as they dependency on Cyprus, et al skyrocketed. Once VPN itself made it really easy and helped both security and easy global telephony/data movement, Russian business moved very, very fast.

Since, as data security issues, data espionage and data as a manipulative force combined all this because a central focus, and the smart young ones split between government and private. Bizarrely all of this has remained a bit short from really widespread. The security forces wanted to manipulate but not to educate the low level military , even Generals. The business types want to keep this close too, so to reduce they own risk from things like ATM network penetration.

Fast forward to now. The Ukrainians have pretty adept technologies, aided in major ways by the always up-to-the-second Estonians who pretty much lead the world (to the chagrin of the US, Indian, Chinese etc who really wish that were not so). Now we have the Ukrainian child, now 31, Deputy Prime Minister
Fedorov Mykhailo who recruits Elon Musk, Tim Cook and others and who knows exactly how all these things really work.

Bluntly, all this tech is one huge reason for Ukraine success, The savvy Russians know it, but the best fo them don't mind screwing up the odd foreign election, but they really, really don't want interference from an elderly technophobe with delusions of grandeur. So...we are at today. Many of those people once were part of the nuclear brain force, but moved to business in Moscow and Saint Petersburg.

Note: This combines things I know and things that seem likely to me. I might be quite wrong. The history pert is pretty much accurate, if very, very superficial.
I saw an article, but can’t remember where that said Russia was putting a mechanism in place that would allow them to inspect all traffic entering/exiting the country, which if I understood correctly could allow them to block VPNs. I found this article today, that touches on what Russia is doing but still doesn’t directly address what I read elsewhere.

Perhaps someone with deeper data networking knowledge could comment.
 
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Reactions: SwedishAdvocate
I saw an article, but can’t remember where that said Russia was putting a mechanism in place that would allow them to inspect all traffic entering/exiting the country, which if I understood correctly could allow them to block VPNs. I found this article today, that touches on what Russia is doing but still doesn’t directly address what I read elsewhere.

Perhaps someone with deeper data networking knowledge could comment.

My 2 cents - good luck. VPNs, by their very nature, are encrypted. They won't be able to sniff that traffic without knowing the VPN cypher key, which any decent VPN provider is not going to share (and should be unique per user).

Now, most VPNs do run on specific ports such as 1723 (PPTP), 1701/500/4500 (L2TP/IPSec), and 1194 (OpenVPN), but there is no reason that they can't be setup (requires VPN provider on their side) to use common ports for plain web traffic (80 and 443).

Russia can make it difficult, but the very core nature of the architecture of the internet is "open and free". Only real way to stop that is to cut the wires into Russia.

Edit - and using something like a Tor browser (brave, etc.) - HA HA HA - the Russian central state doesn't stand a chance.
 
“If Ukraine agrees to any of Russia's terms to end the pain short term, Russia will be back in a few years and it will be worse. If Zelensky holds out, this threat may be gone for good or severely diminished. Ukraine is going to have billions poured into the country to rebuild after the war both from other governments and private sources. Ukraine was sort of bottom of the European pecking order going into this war, but their esteem has risen dramatically, they can cash in on this and become one of the stronger EU nations.”


This is the classical scenario, but I don’t believe it factors in the massive decline of Russian economic and ground capabilities post-Ukraine, or the likelihood of Putin being replaced. RussGov has almost nothing but missiles, but that’s a huge factor. With a strengthened Ukraine along ^^ lines, post-Putin how can Crimea/Donbas not eventually fall to Ukraine?

The Russians can still make dumb missiles as used in their MRLS launchers, but they need parts from Europe to make their larger, smart missiles. They could start making large, dumb missiles for their larger launchers, but that would reduce their effectiveness quite a bit. I do think this war is going to break the back of their ground forces to a large extent.

If the military does break Ukraine could roll into their former territories and take them back, but the more secure way to reduce the possibility the Russians will be back is to formally get the Russians to cede those territories in a peace treaty.

Um, the F-22 has a non-afterburner cruise speed capability of Mach 2+. Supersonic speed does NOTHING to affect radar profile (of which the F-22 is the undisputed king with a cross-section of something like 0.3 cm).

You're right, I forgot about that. But to achieve those speeds without an afterburner requires some advanced engine tech the Russians don't have.

But that capability aside, you're not going to want to go supersonic when trying to be stealth because of the sonic boom.

Saw this - wondered if others here have seen anything to suggest this is the case or just encouragement from Ukraine, i.e., PR. I saw this tactic referenced in posts providing historical context upthread. I am incredibly appreciative for the insights of the posters on this thread. This thread is a large contributor to helping me stay on an even keel around the Ukraine war.

Russia may be using Commissar 'execution squads' again - report
https://www.jpost.com/international/article-701071

This is the first I've heard of this, but I wouldn't be surprised. When it comes to encouragement the Russians have always leaned heavily on the stick side rather than throwing many carrots around.

My 2 cents - good luck. VPNs, by their very nature, are encrypted. They won't be able to sniff that traffic without knowing the VPN cypher key, which any decent VPN provider is not going to share (and should be unique per user).

Now, most VPNs do run on specific ports such as 1723 (PPTP), 1701/500/4500 (L2TP/IPSec), and 1194 (OpenVPN), but there is no reason that they can't be setup (requires VPN provider on their side) to use common ports for plain web traffic (80 and 443).

Russia can make it difficult, but the very core nature of the architecture of the internet is "open and free". Only real way to stop that is to cut the wires into Russia.

Edit - and using something like a Tor browser (brave, etc.) - HA HA HA - the Russian central state doesn't stand a chance.

I wouldn't be surprised if some idiot decides the only way to stop outside information is to physically disconnect Russia from the outside world. I would expect it would cause a major productivity drop as millions of Russians try to figure out how to work around the new limitations. All this happening in an economy that is already in a lot of trouble.
 
My 2 cents - good luck. VPNs, by their very nature, are encrypted. They won't be able to sniff that traffic without knowing the VPN cypher key, which any decent VPN provider is not going to share (and should be unique per user).

Now, most VPNs do run on specific ports such as 1723 (PPTP), 1701/500/4500 (L2TP/IPSec), and 1194 (OpenVPN), but there is no reason that they can't be setup (requires VPN provider on their side) to use common ports for plain web traffic (80 and 443).

Russia can make it difficult, but the very core nature of the architecture of the internet is "open and free". Only real way to stop that is to cut the wires into Russia.

Edit - and using something like a Tor browser (brave, etc.) - HA HA HA - the Russian central state doesn't stand a chance.
This is a related topic which is why I’m doing it as a reply to this message. Appears that Russia is creating its own Certificate Authority (CA) because users can’t otherwise renew their certificates. It does open the door to nefarious actions on their part, but it also makes sense.

Full disclosure - I first saw this on LinkedIn. (Pardon me while I remove my foot from my mouth; in a deleted post from this morning (I flew too close to the sun on another topic), I trashed LinkedIn..)

 
This is a related topic which is why I’m doing it as a reply to this message. Appears that Russia is creating its own Certificate Authority (CA) because users can’t otherwise renew their certificates. It does open the door to nefarious actions on their part, but it also makes sense.

Full disclosure - I first saw this on LinkedIn. (Pardon me while I remove my foot from my mouth; in a deleted post from this morning (I flew too close to the sun on another topic), I trashed LinkedIn..)


I saw this a few hours ago as well. CA authorities require tons of trust, not something I attribute to the Russian government.
 
You're right, I forgot about that. But to achieve those speeds without an afterburner requires some advanced engine tech the Russians don't have.

But that capability aside, you're not going to want to go supersonic when trying to be stealth because of the sonic boom.

Not correct. The Su-57 also is supersonic without afterburners. Russian jet engines are second only to those built by US contractors, they make some GREAT stuff.

Additionally, and again, sonic boom means NOTHING for stealth. You do understand that the boom FOLLOWS the aircraft, right? It doesn't precede it. So by the time you have heard the boom, you are dead (if you were the target).
 
So was breaking the set a Russian FSB funded project? Inquiring minds would like to know.

According to Wikipedia's page on Abby Martin Breaking the Set is an RT America show:
Abby Martin - Wikipedia

Her program is being taken down because it's associated with Russian propaganda media.

Now for something completely different: Russian combat ability...

This article on Russian forces says a lot about their preparedness and how well they can provide replacements
Institute for the Study of War

The article sites a number I have seen elsewhere that Russia has committed 120-125 Battalion Tactical Groups to the war. The BTG is the core unit structure in their army. According to Wikipedia their entire army has 170 BTGs, each consisting of 600-800 men.
Battalion tactical group - Wikipedia

That would mean that a little under 75% of their entire combat force is committed to this war. Assuming an average of 700 men per BTG, 125 BTGs would be 87,500 people at the pointy end of the spear.

The rest of the troops committed to this war are rear area troops, either support or artillery. The Russian army has been heavy on artillery since WW II. They are the only army in the world to have division sized units of just artillery. They probably have significant numbers dedicated to the artillery forces, but those aren't people who can capture territory or hold territory. Artillery is there to support the pointy end of the spear (the people taking or holding territory on the front lines).

With all the combat vehicles knocked out, the BTGs are probably taking the brunt of the losses. The first article above makes the point that the replacements are almost certainly going to be lower quality than the people they are replacing, who were pretty incompetent.

Not correct. The Su-57 also is supersonic without afterburners. Russian jet engines are second only to those built by US contractors, they make some GREAT stuff.

Additionally, and again, sonic boom means NOTHING for stealth. You do understand that the boom FOLLOWS the aircraft, right? It doesn't precede it. So by the time you have heard the boom, you are dead (if you were the target).

Though the engines are turbofans, they also have afterburners.

A sonic boom will alert anyone in front of the target that something is up there.
 
Though the engines are turbofans, they also have afterburners.

A sonic boom will alert anyone in front of the target that something is up there.

HA HA HA HA . . . NO on both counts.

1) quote from Wikipedia above (and it has the link in the sources):
" The aerodynamics and engines enable it to achieve speeds of Mach 2 and fly supersonic without afterburners (supercruise) giving a significant kinematic advantage and extends the effective range of missiles and bombs over previous generations of aircraft."


2) You really don't understand how supersonic aircraft work, do you? The speed of sound is relatively fixed in air (it does travel slower as the air gets thinner). When you BREAK the sound barrier, your sonic boom is literally travelling BEHIND you as you are flying. The sound doesn't somehow get magically FASTER and go ahead of you at Mach 3 (since you are going Mach 2).


"It is just like being on the shore of a smooth lake when a boat speeds past. There is no disturbance in the water as the boat comes by, but eventually a large wave from the wake rolls onto shore. When a plane flies past at supersonic speeds the exact same thing happens, but instead of the large wake wave, you get a sonic boom."