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Russia/Ukraine conflict

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I'm hoping it will not escalate..

If true, Iran is claiming it is an attack against MOSAD, after a recent Israeli attack killed one of their people.

If MOSAD is located in/near the US embassy, that doesn't seem to me like a smart idea.

The US and Iran are trying to strike a deal on oil, this looks like an attempt to derail the talks.
 
According to Wikipedia's page on Abby Martin Breaking the Set is an RT America show:
Abby Martin - Wikipedia

Her program is being taken down because it's associated with Russian propaganda media.

Now for something completely different: Russian combat ability...

This article on Russian forces says a lot about their preparedness and how well they can provide replacements
Institute for the Study of War

The article sites a number I have seen elsewhere that Russia has committed 120-125 Battalion Tactical Groups to the war. The BTG is the core unit structure in their army. According to Wikipedia their entire army has 170 BTGs, each consisting of 600-800 men.
Battalion tactical group - Wikipedia

That would mean that a little under 75% of their entire combat force is committed to this war. Assuming an average of 700 men per BTG, 125 BTGs would be 87,500 people at the pointy end of the spear.

The rest of the troops committed to this war are rear area troops, either support or artillery. The Russian army has been heavy on artillery since WW II. They are the only army in the world to have division sized units of just artillery. They probably have significant numbers dedicated to the artillery forces, but those aren't people who can capture territory or hold territory. Artillery is there to support the pointy end of the spear (the people taking or holding territory on the front lines).

With all the combat vehicles knocked out, the BTGs are probably taking the brunt of the losses. The first article above makes the point that the replacements are almost certainly going to be lower quality than the people they are replacing, who were pretty incompetent.



Though the engines are turbofans, they also have afterburners.

A sonic boom will alert anyone in front of the target that something is up there.

Different times, maybe more civilians involved now, different tech, but a relative who was in the British Army for a long time (until 1970s) used to mention that only 1 in 8 troops were at the pointy end, rest logistics (maybe artillery) etc. I'm not sure how accurate that was or is now.

British Army worried they would run out of infantry some time after Normandy. Lots of hunting around in admin and other roles for replacements. Deeply unpopular.
 
According to Wikipedia's page on Abby Martin Breaking the Set is an RT America show:
Abby Martin - Wikipedia
A lot of people were on RT - including Larry King.

So, they are going to now censor all video of Larry King ?

Wait .... how about Tucker ? There is hardly a difference between him and RT news .... would you be fine if Fox News is banned by YouTube ? I mean ... apart from how much you might relish the thought ...
 

I'm not too worried about Russians heading overseas via Serbia.

A portion of these will be highly skilled intellectuals leaving as part of a "brain drain".

When deciding to admit those holding Russian passports, EU countries need to do a through background check.

If these are simply tourists, they will be spending foreign currency taken out of Russia, but security checks are warranted.
 
This was an interesting article describing Putin’s inner circle:

My guess is that army is best bet to stop Putin, they've been excluded, are being castigated for failures by corrupt, ignorant FSB people with no understanding. I'd imagine Army officer co-operation must be tricky, so it might be led by a single unit in Moscow that don't fancy the war or getting posted to Ukraine. Where's Konev and Zhukov when you need them?
 
A lot of people were on RT - including Larry King.

So, they are going to now censor all video of Larry King ?

Wait .... how about Tucker ? There is hardly a difference between him and RT news .... would you be fine if Fox News is banned by YouTube ? I mean ... apart from how much you might relish the thought ...
That's a false equivalence though. The show that was removed was sponsored by RT directly. It's not like Youtube is deleting this person from existence.
Abby Martin - Wikipedia
 
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HA HA HA HA . . . NO on both counts.

1) quote from Wikipedia above (and it has the link in the sources):
" The aerodynamics and engines enable it to achieve speeds of Mach 2 and fly supersonic without afterburners (supercruise) giving a significant kinematic advantage and extends the effective range of missiles and bombs over previous generations of aircraft."


2) You really don't understand how supersonic aircraft work, do you? The speed of sound is relatively fixed in air (it does travel slower as the air gets thinner). When you BREAK the sound barrier, your sonic boom is literally travelling BEHIND you as you are flying. The sound doesn't somehow get magically FASTER and go ahead of you at Mach 3 (since you are going Mach 2).


"It is just like being on the shore of a smooth lake when a boat speeds past. There is no disturbance in the water as the boat comes by, but eventually a large wave from the wake rolls onto shore. When a plane flies past at supersonic speeds the exact same thing happens, but instead of the large wake wave, you get a sonic boom."

I know you're convinced I'm a complete moron, but you are misunderstanding me. I know quite a bit about jet engines. I was an Aeronautical Engineering major for a while before switching to Electronic Engineering.

The Wikipedia article you linked says the engines have afterburners.

Considering how the Russians have over sold the quality of their military equipment and their military engines have been 1-2 generations behind western engines since WW II, I am extremely skeptical about the specs for their stealth fighter.

An article from a few years ago echoing my skepticism
Russia’s T-50 Stealth Fighter Might Have a Fatal Flaw


He based that on the article I posted here a couple of days ago. It's the best analysis I've seen for Russia's support forces.

Different times, maybe more civilians involved now, different tech, but a relative who was in the British Army for a long time (until 1970s) used to mention that only 1 in 8 troops were at the pointy end, rest logistics (maybe artillery) etc. I'm not sure how accurate that was or is now.

British Army worried they would run out of infantry some time after Normandy. Lots of hunting around in admin and other roles for replacements. Deeply unpopular.

In WW II the Russians put a higher percentage of their troops on the front line than western armies, and they suffered the logistical consequences. I have been trying to figure out how many of those 190,000 troops were actually combat troops.

My partner saw a claim from the Ukrainians that they have rendered 31 BTGs disabled (not enough men and equipment to fight). That's 1/4 of their front line combat forces. Reports are that some have been withdrawn to rebuild in Russia or Belarus. They will either fill those units with troops even greener than those lost, or they will combine units together to make fewer whole units.

When manpower ran short late in WW II a lot of armies combined units. I have a feeling that reducing unit numbers will probably be unacceptable to the Russians, so they will put green troops into the mildly seasoned units.
 
In the first week of the war (and sporadically since) Ukrainian officials looking for greater Western support have pointed out that more aggressive support is owed them because after USSR collapsed, Russia, the U.S. and U.K. guaranteed Ukrainian sovereignty in exchange for giving all Soviet nuclear weapons on Ukrainian territory to Russia.

Can anyone with detailed knowledge of the negotiations leading to this agreement speak to how strongly the U.S. and U.K. may have twisted the arms of Ukraine's leaders to agree to give up all the weapons they controlled?

While giving the majority of the warheads to Russia probably made good sense, it seems to me not keeping a modest number was exceptionally foolish.
Ukraine's leaders knew better than anyone that guarantees from Russia were worthless. Could they have failed to realize that any guarantees from U.S. and U.K. would not be honored if doing so risked a full scale nuclear war? So was it Ukrainian naivety or pressure from the U.S. they could not resist, which led them to give up all the warheads?
 
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Can anyone with detailed knowledge of the negotiations leading to this agreement speak to how strongly the U.S. and U.K. may have twisted the arms of Ukraine's leaders to agree to give up all the weapons they controlled?
There was a deal for Ukraine to give all the soviet era nuclear weapons it owned back to Russia:-

That was done in 1994 when this problem wasn't; anticipated.

Since 2014 the US has been helping Ukraine rebuild it military capacity off a very low base.
 
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Reactions: SwedishAdvocate
I know you're convinced I'm a complete moron, but you are misunderstanding me. I know quite a bit about jet engines. I was an Aeronautical Engineering major for a while before switching to Electronic Engineering.

The Wikipedia article you linked says the engines have afterburners.

Considering how the Russians have over sold the quality of their military equipment and their military engines have been 1-2 generations behind western engines since WW II, I am extremely skeptical about the specs for their stealth fighter.

An article from a few years ago echoing my skepticism
Russia’s T-50 Stealth Fighter Might Have a Fatal Flaw



He based that on the article I posted here a couple of days ago. It's the best analysis I've seen for Russia's support forces.



In WW II the Russians put a higher percentage of their troops on the front line than western armies, and they suffered the logistical consequences. I have been trying to figure out how many of those 190,000 troops were actually combat troops.

My partner saw a claim from the Ukrainians that they have rendered 31 BTGs disabled (not enough men and equipment to fight). That's 1/4 of their front line combat forces. Reports are that some have been withdrawn to rebuild in Russia or Belarus. They will either fill those units with troops even greener than those lost, or they will combine units together to make fewer whole units.

When manpower ran short late in WW II a lot of armies combined units. I have a feeling that reducing unit numbers will probably be unacceptable to the Russians, so they will put green troops into the mildly seasoned units.

No, you are just flat out wrong.

The Su-57 is a CONFIRMED stealth fighter that can do Mach 2 without engaging it's afterburners. This fighter was specifically designed as a response to the F-22 (which had demonstrated this capability for over 15 years before the Su-57).

It has afterburners to go faster than Mach 2, just like the F-22, but both planes are "supercruise" capable.

Simple as that.


EDIT - did you even read the article you linked? It even states I'm correct:
"According to Russian sources, though the AL-41F1 provides enough thrust for sustained supersonic cruise capability, it does not meet the Russian Aerospace Forces’ requirements for thrust-to-weight ratio or fuel efficiency."
 
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bkp_duke said:
Um, the F-22 has a non-afterburner cruise speed capability of Mach 2+. Supersonic speed does NOTHING to affect radar profile (of which the F-22 is the undisputed king with a cross-section of something like 0.3 cm).

You're right, I forgot about that. But to achieve those speeds without an afterburner requires some advanced engine tech the Russians don't have.

But that capability aside, you're not going to want to go supersonic when trying to be stealth because of the sonic boom.

As soon as you start hanging stores on the outside of all these aircraft they struggle to go supersonic at low level, and to the extent that they can their fuel consumption goes up (especially in the transonic region). Also the external stores themselves, whether tanks or munitions or targetting pods or whatever are often not stressed to high speeds at low level.

The Su-34 is entirely external stores, no internal bays.

The internal carriage on the F22/F35 are for smaller stores (aka 'day 1' stores) and these are always smart weapons. The Russians will have very little that is equivalent in their inventory. For practical purposes the reports of the Russians using their more advanced aircraft indicates that they are short of platforms and people. Since the Ukraine shot down another Su-34 yesterday I guess the attrition continues.

Ukrainian air defence shots down another Russian Su-34

Like the F22/F35 the Su-57 also has internal bays. I guess we watch to see whether they are dropping dumb bombs out of them, or smart munitions. When they were deployed to Syria they perhaps only launched one munition (a cruise missile). It can only supercruise at high level.


Zelensky says Ukraine has now suffered ~1300 miltary casualties as of Saturday, so that brings the exchange ratio to more like 10:1


If you add up all the Russian vehicles/aircraft/etc that Ukraine claims to have destroyed it sums to approx ~2500 and then divide that into the number of Russian troops claimed killed ~12,000 that suggests approx 5-KIA per platform. That is within the realms of possibility.

Those Russian columns are getting awful close to linking up ....
 
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Even if some kid found this flag in his grandpa's footlocker, the unit commander allowed this display in a combat zone. There should be no doubt that a new cold war has begun, and what is motivating the 'Soviet' troops.

See 1:21 of the video here:
 
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