I saw this earlier today. In light of what was reported late this afternoon, regarding Russia’s ask of China, this meeting makes a lot more sense. In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me if the leak of that info was timed to be right before the meeting.
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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
60 Minutes Australia had a good piece on Sunday about a bounty placed on Putin by a former Russian Stock Exchange executive:
Russian oligarch puts million-dollar bounty on Vladimir Putin's head | 60 Minutes Australia
Russian oligarch puts million-dollar bounty on Vladimir Putin's head | 60 Minutes Australia
_Redshift_
Member
I know you’d like to be done with the tangent, but I’d like to add just one thing in support of your comment about overstated military abilities.
the original engine is still being used on the Su-57 than the newer, lighter versions, which would have aided in the supercruise capability.
this is not statement whether the capability actually exists or not, but it does seem that they have had a lot of issues with the newer variants of the engine.
Why Russia's Su-57 'Felon' Stealth Fighter Can't Hide Its Problems
While the F-35 and F-22 remain ahead of the Su-57 in terms of stealth, it is still a formidable and deadly fighter in its own right.
www.19fortyfive.com
EDIT: sorry if it’s already been posted here before. I did not read all the older posts, only some.
All indications are China wants a quick negotiated settlement and doesn't want to be dragged into this mess.
If nothing else China is worried about the economic impact and the impact of any contraction of their economy cased by sanctions etc.
China also doesn't want to see war between Russia and NATO.
If the world learns China is supplying arms to Russia, governments will not need to organise trade sanctions, consumers will organise boycotts and perhaps pressure businesses to stop doing business with China,
If that happened, it would be bad for Tesla, but I don't think China wants to be mired in that mess.
The Chinese may protest the US providing arms to Ukraine, but the US can say the aim was to prevent / stop the invasion.
Providing arms to the aggressor has a very different dynamic.
All indications are Drones are becoming more important in this war, and people are still inventing new ways of using them.
Drones are very cheap and easy to ship in large quantities, they come in a range of sizes that can be used for different purposes.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Word of caution about propaganda.
Fog of war is real and thick.
Turns out the first guy was telling the truth, rather than the second one in one very important area.
Fog of war is real and thick.
Turns out the first guy was telling the truth, rather than the second one in one very important area.
While this isn't an appropriate thread for it, the last time I got into a 'discussion' on an edit was a year or so ago. I looked at the person who kept undoing my edits 'talk' page, and there were literally hundreds of complaints by others he/she was also doing it to on various other pages. Still doing it today. I should note that is was not some politically charged page in question. It was about the routing of a road in central Utah whose exact history is quite well known to those of us that have studied, and actually driven it, it over the years.
There have been others. I've made hundreds of edits to Wikipedia since about 2008. Some even about EVs.
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
Uniformed theory; what Putin wants:
Ukraine east of the Dnipro river to be formally recognised as part of Russia.
Uniformed prediction; what Putin will get:
Ukraine east of the Dnipro river formally recognised as part of Russia. Main negotiation agreed in July followed by reductions in sanctions for good behaviour over next 2 years.
Ukraine east of the Dnipro river to be formally recognised as part of Russia.
Uniformed prediction; what Putin will get:
Ukraine east of the Dnipro river formally recognised as part of Russia. Main negotiation agreed in July followed by reductions in sanctions for good behaviour over next 2 years.
Borders at the start of the war recognised as independent states - aligned to Russia.
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO and to formal neutrality, including not allowing the invasion of Russia via Ukraine.
Some deal on Ukraine providing water to Crimea.
Rapid reversal of most formal sanctions - but informally many businesses will never come back to Russia.
Russia allows Ukraine ships free passage in all waterways.
Likely - some deal on disbanding the Asov regiment.
Likely - Ukraine agrees to stop importing weapons from the Turkey and the west, and stop developing missiles.
Likely -Ukraine can join the EU.
Likely - some deal on reparations using seized Russian funds.
Possible - Ukraine can keep developing its space industry.. (The difference between missiles and rockets is very narrow)
Possible - some return of asserts seized from Oligarchs
Timetable - 30/70 the ceasefire in 2-3 days will be the beginning of the end.
Most likely 70% Putin has a crack at taking Kyiv and fails, after 2 more weeks, 2nd ceasefire - deal settled by end of April,
It it isn't over by the end of April, it will be very bad for Ukraine and Russia,
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Fat chance. The Ukrainians will not settle for anything less than their complete country intact, including the Donbas and Crimea.
Russia can either settle for this, or watch their entire country return to the Dark Ages. China isn't going to bail them out of this.
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
I incorrectly assumed that all EU members would be NATO members:
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Well, I certainly hope not. Ukraine's eastern region holds close to 500,000 tons of lithium oxide:
Before Invasion, Ukraine's Lithium Wealth Was Drawing Global ... www.nytimes.com › 2022/03/02 › climate › ukraine-lithium
That may even be one of Putin's strategic objectives: to deny the West access to a significant source of material resources which would in fact devalue his oil reserves. Signficantly, one Chinese company already has a stake in Ukrainian lithium (and yes, it's East of the Dnieper river)
China's Chengxin submits bid for Ukraine lithium deposits
www.mining.com › Syndicated ContentFortunately, I see little chance that Ukraine would agree to such a settlement. Further, it would be unfathomable that the West would reward Putin's naked criminality with lifting of sanctions.
No, Putin must go before any relations can be restored with Russia. Reparations will be the sticking points in negotiations, not redrawn borders.
That is the other alternative, we don't know what Ukraine will accept..
There is every chance that in 2 weeks time the war might be going worse for either party.
If Russia thinks it is bad now, it could get a lot worse.
Turkey is quite pivotal in this dispute, supplying Ukraine with the Drones, and supporting Crimea being returned to Ukraine.
Turkey and Russia have disputes in many areas, including Syria.
Turkey might have emboldened Ukraine to think it can reclaim Crimea..
Basically they are.
Article 45 of the eu-charta works like article 5 of NATO. So if Finland gets attacked eu will join. And that will drag nato in.
And your map still has UK as member. They are out
petit_bateau
Active Member
It happens to me on some pages, not on others. I'm afraid it happens even when I know the subject matter far more than the Wiki super-editor, whoever he/she is.
petit_bateau
Active Member
The Aegean Sea is 1) as close as a carrier can get, because 2) Montreux Convention, and 3) in any case best place for a carrier to be in the circumstances.
petit_bateau
Active Member
The EU treaty(ies') provisions on defence are much weaker than the Art 5 provision of NATO. I wish that it were not so, but it is.Basically they are.
Article 45 of the eu-charta works like article 5 of NATO. So if Finland gets attacked eu will join. And that will drag nato in.
And your map still has UK as member. They are out
A real problem for both NATO and the EU is if 'blocking' nations become members. So let us say that a nation beginning with H were to become a EU or NATO member and then perennially block any criticism of, or sanctions on, Russia. Such things do happen, and it is quite a relief to see Hungary under Victor Orban for once not blocking these sanctions. Orban is of course comprehensively pwned by Putin. However even if considerable pressure has been brought to bear on Orban by EU/NATO that still has not been enough to get Hungary to fully co-operate, and Orban is in fact refusing to allow resupply of Ukraine across the Hungarian border.
Another similar country of worry is Serbia, and it is one of the unstated reasons that the EU (and NATO) are very reluctant to let a Russian proxy become a member state of either organisation. If you look you will note that Serbian airlines are still merrily flying to/from Russia despite EU airspace being closed to Russian airlines. So Serbia is being used to allow Russian circumvention of the EU sanctions.
A similar problem is (or was) for the EU the problem of Londonistan, where the vast majority of dirty Russian money was being laundered in London, and London is in fact the biggest granter of golden passports. It is no co-incidence that the UK is slowest to act on anti-oligarch sanctions. I have heard it whispered that it is now far easier for the EU to obtain unanimity on anti-Russia sanctions now that the UK is out. Nothing at all to do with the fact that Brexiters such as Johnson/Farage/etc are all pwned by Putin, no, move along there.
(As an aside, it was Margaret Thatcher that was the key - and critical - proponent of a "gas for peace" pathway that led to the main strategic thrust of the energy supply pipelines back in the beginning, even before the Cold War ended and the Berlin Wall came down. The UK is deeply implicated in all this I am afraid.)
The biggest blocker for Ukraine becoming a NATO/EU member are concerns of this nature. Letting a corrupt Russian puppet such as Yanukovich (ex-President of Ukraine) inside EU/NATO is a real worry. That is exactly what Russia has been trying to do, and succeeding on, for 20-years under Putin. Ditto problem in Belorus, Georgia, Moldovia.
Another - related - issue is that staggering lack of understanding of peoples out there about all this, and the extent to which they are constantly being used. I am daily gobsmacked by the naivety of people and how ill-informed they are, even now.
Ambiguous alliance: Neutrality, opt-outs, and European defence
The EU’s work on its Strategic Compass should include debates on the special status states’ future role in European defence…
ecfr.eu
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petit_bateau
Active Member
The big worry in logistics terms, is if the Russians are able to get a functioning railhead inside northern Ukraine, or a port in southern Ukraine. Conversely the Ukraine needs to stop those Russian columns from linking up, because if they do so that is Ukraine's logistics broken in the east / into the major cities. IMHO.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
petit_bateau
Active Member
A rather less optimistic map of the current situation, which may nevertheless be somewhat more realistic.
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