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Russia/Ukraine conflict

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Not at all. Colonial Russia, however, has continued to invade many countries in the last 100 years.

It is surprising how many remain quite unfamiliar with the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact and the deep culpability of Russia in the origins of WW2.
Yes they invaded Poland as did Germany. And you point I assume is the US is a saint and Russia is not. I do agree with the Russian part.
 
Again I agree but we also agreed no NATO expansion for Ukraine. We likely will never know but I wonder if Biden had agreed to no inclusion of Ukraine into NATO if the invasion would not have occurred. While Biden met with Putin before the war no such guarantee was given.

The Bush administration announced in 2008 that Ukraine and Georgia would be added to NATO. They, like the other former Warsaw Pact countries want to be under the US nuclear umbrella.

The US initially resisted eastward expansion of NATO. Poland forced the issue by declaring it was either NATO membership or they would start their own nuclear program.

First let me be clear that I believe that Russia and Putin are in the wrong and Putin is evil. That said looking at borders the inclusion of Ukraine into NATO could be seen as a threat to Russia. Russia has been seriously invaded by the west in recent history's, Sweden, Napoleon, WW1 and WW2. So I can understand them being fearful. While that is no reason to invade, I see where a western expansion of NATO could be threatening.

Yes, Russia is paranoid about invaders. I've been pointing that out for over a year here. But Russia is going to use any excuse it can find to do what they want to do. Putin wanted to invade Ukraine, so one of the reasons is the so called violation of the agreement by the US. Their manipulation campaigns on social media have convinced a lot of people who want to blame everything on the US that the US is really to blame.

Yes they invaded Poland as did Germany. And you point I assume is the US is a saint and Russia is not. I do agree with the Russian part.

During the same time period the USSR invaded Finland and took the Baltic states. The Baltic states were only part of the USSR for a year before Germany invaded.
 
Yes they invaded Poland as did Germany…
Russia invaded and colonized far more than that. The Baltics to this day remain colonized from ethnic Russians installed there around WW2 and after. Some argue genocide such as with the Holodomor and deportation of groups to far away gulags to die.

While no people or nation is perfect, the idea that we should therefore cut a significant measure of slack to the likes of former Nazi Germany or the current and ever criminal Russia is absurd.
 
I became disillusioned with Haass (the pundit, not the machine tool company although I have a bone to pick with them as well) many months ago when he started with that crap.

Regretfully, it looks like more are looking to follow his lead as we short attention span mericans focus on the latest shinny new penny (IH conflict). The crying shame is the absurdity of switching focus when one of the problems is sooooo much greater than the other. Both involve killing, rape, kidnapping and devastation just one is on such a greater scale that it deserves a proportionate degree of attention.

I believe we can walk and chew gum at the same time; we have bandwidth to address both situations. I just wish we (in the US) would.
I agree with both you and @wdolson. I will add that these two conflicts have some connection. Israel has publicly stated they see Russia’s involvement (Israeli Minister early in war), and I’ve seen recent posts in X stating that Israeli intelligence believes Russia was more directly involved in the planning of Hamas attacks. Stopping Russia and defeating Putin will positively help Israel.

On a personal note I have a deeper connection to Israel, and the bleed over into the US and around the world of anti-semitism. I will note though, that it has also been reported that Russia is invested in fanning those flames too.

I come down hard on the side of fiercely supporting both.
 
I come down hard on the side of fiercely supporting both.

Interesting. How do you reconcile with approving Israel using similar brutality (even if in revenge) towards civilians while disapproving Russians doing the same when air raiding Ukraine (they have their excuses too)?

Moderator: This post is not being deleted but this is a thread about the UKR-RU conflict and NOT about others. No responses to this post.
 
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I am sure someone with a better memory than me can correct me if I am wrong, but didn't Ukraine offer to not join NATO days leading up to the invasion?
No, but that was Putie's precondition for 'peace' talks. You remember, the ones in Istanbul where Russian delegates poisoned Ukrainians?

Well how did that work?
See above.
 
I am sure someone with a better memory than me can correct me if I am wrong, but didn't Ukraine offer to not join NATO days leading up to the invasion?

Well how did that work?
That was a condition thrown out by Russia prior to the invasion, but there was nothing publicly that was announced to that effect.

Perhaps you are talking about this rumor that came later about a Russian envoy prior to the invasion working out a potential preliminary deal with Ukraine about them not joining NATO, but Putin rejected and was looking for territorial concessions instead. However when the rumor came out, Russia firmly denied it ever happened.
Exclusive: As war began, Putin rejected a Ukraine peace deal recommended by aide
Ukraine–NATO relations - Wikipedia

Note that as per the wiki page above, Ukraine had already amended their constitution in 2019 to make joining NATO a foreign policy goal, so any promises against that may not legally hold in the long run anyways.
 
A look at a map makes it obvious that NATO is expanding eastward, BUT it is not a result of conquest or invasion, it is a result of former Soviet bloc countries rejecting Russia. Self determination of these countries is the driver.

FWIW, I think that NATO's acceptance of some of these countries has weakened NATO. But in any case, the Russian propaganda line that countries rejecting Russian colonization and seeking protection against Russian military retaliation proves NATO aggression is poppycock.

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On a somewhat related note, the meme that Russia has been repeatedly invaded by the 'West' has a grain of truth but most of the story is no where near so simple. E.g., WWI was a result of Imperialist Russia and Imperialist Austria-Hungary (AH) both having ambitions to colonize the slavic states. Russia decided to take on AH after it had secured a pact with France in retaliation for the AH annexation of Serbia , but in a miscalculation found itself in a war with Germany which had a pact with AH. Absent the Russian imperial design to conquer the slavic states and then Turkey, WWI would not have happened. We can also say that absent the AH imperial ambitions WWI would not have happened, but the important distinction here is that Russia was never threatened until it started a war over Serbia.
 
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the inclusion of Ukraine into NATO could be seen as a threat to Russia.
Nonsense. Certainly not any more than the inclusion of Poland into NATO could be seen as a threat to Russia. Or the inclusion of Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Romania. And now because of Russia’s idiotic belligerence, Finland and Sweden. Many of these are either on the border with Russia or closer to the Russian border than Lviv.

Russia has no basis to fear any of its proximate NATO neighbors, but it does envy them, because they rose out of the shithole of the Eastern bloc in a way that Putins Russia cannot. (Although Russia very well could have with a different leader). And Russia especially envied Ukraine’s resources in Crimea and eastern Ukraine.
Russia has been seriously invaded by the west in recent history's, Sweden, Napoleon, WW1 and WW2.
LOL
Poland forced the issue by declaring it was either NATO membership or they would start their own nuclear program.
Yes exactly, and this is the reason for all countries to join NATO : for their own self interest they need to be part of an alliance with a safe predictable stable coalition with nukes. Russia cannot provide that, so they seek it from NATO.

Russias idiotic invasion of Ukraine made it more desirable for Finland, Sweden and Georgia and others to also join NATO and they have or will.

Trotting out the “fear of Ukraine joining NATO” is a litmus test for indicating people who unthinkingly repeat idiotic Russian talking points, oblivious to contrary history and facts.
 
The Russian Dictator's dead serfs keep piling on. Is this what the Russian Dictator's 'success' looks like?...

Data from Ragnar Gudmundsson.


ukraina_ryssland_forluster_ragnar_gudmundsson.png
 
Countries on the Russia border should form their own NATO lite. This would solve several problems:
  1. Stops NATO expansion which is a reason or excuse for Russian invasion
  2. Discourages invasion
  3. Peace of mind for those countries - they could probably fend off Russia on their own with half of the outside assistance
  4. Had Sweden gone to war in Ukraine's defence, EU and UK would have followed
3 and 4 strengthen 2.
 
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Countries on the Russia border should form their own NATO lite. This would solve several problems:
  1. Stops NATO expansion which is a reason or excuse for Russian invasion
  2. Discourages invasion
  3. Peace of mind for those countries - they could probably fend off Russia on their own with half of the outside assistance
  4. Had Sweden gone to war in Ukraine's defence, EU and UK would have followed
3 and 4 strengthen 2.

Russia's MO is corruption, so actual NATO might have an advantage. See Slovakia.
 
Economist not bullish on Ukr's '24 prospects:



I wouldn't say Russia is winning militarily. They are getting a lot of men killed and a lot of equipment lost to gain pitifully small gains on the battlefield. What they are doing is completely unsustainable. Even for Russia.

The deeper point that the article makes is true that Russia has been able to erode the will of the west to support Ukraine. Russia has made some progress on that aspect of the war. But even if many western countries quit supporting Ukraine, that isn't going to win the war for Russia. It will just mean the war will devolve into a real stalemate.

Russia does not have the ability to capture territory at anything more than about 5-10K lives per Km and when they do take territory, their forces are often so depleted they don't have the strength to hold them. Even if they can hold the ground they take, it's over 700 Km from the front lines to Kyiv. That would cost them an entire generation of men to take that ground, and probably several years at their current pace. Russia only had about 8 million men between 18 and 40 in February 2022. They have already gotten over 6% of that generation killed, and who knows how many maimed for life.

The 18-40 year olds are the core movers of the economy. Russia was already facing economic problems in the coming years as the larger, older generation moved into retirement. Shrinking that pool of men damages the economy for at least one generation and probably longer.

In farming terms, Russia is eating its seed corn. Russia could start to fall apart because they don't have the manpower to keep the empire together. There are two countries on the continent with more than 1 billion population and nature abhors a vacuum. Even if China doesn't decide to invade militarily, they can start sending immigrants and basically turn Siberia into a Chinese colony and Russia won't be able to do anything about it.