Blackouts in Russia
Is Russia's grid under stress due to sanctions?
Is Russia's grid under stress due to sanctions?
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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
Let's hope dissent inside of Russia finally starts to pick up.
Something occurred to me that might be related to all this a while back. It probably occurred to Ukraine as well. Russia is really big and they can't defend it everywhere. It wouldn't take too much effort for some Ukrainians to just wander Russia, look for the undefended targets and just cause Russia a lot of grief.
I wonder if that's what's going on here.
I wonder if that's what's going on here.
It could be. The Ukrainians did take responsibility for attacking the rail lines between Russia and China a couple of months back.
The warehouse fire in St Petersburg appears to be domestic though. At least according to the thread posted above. The blackout in Rostov could be Ukrainians, but the announcement there will be rolling blackouts in Moscow says there is something wrong with Russia's electricity generating capacity or the power distribution network. Or it's possible that so much electricity is going into war industries that there isn't enough left for civilian use. Though other than smelting aluminum few war industries are going to be major electricity users.
Yeah up to 12 hours without power in Russia's capitol is pretty wild. Wouldn't have guessed this. I would have thought that power shouldn't be any problem in Russia, just burn all that natural gas they can't sell now.
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
The sanctions in combination with the cold impacting their energy sector?...
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
All those extra hours of darkness. What's a drone to do ?
Hm. Wondering. Electrical workers, the people who maintain power poles, run power plants, maintain power plants, drag fuel to power plants, are typically not 100% 60-year-old workers. They're people with strength, smarts, and specialized training. One cannot take a callow 18-year-old off the streets, put them to work in such an environment, and expect instant results.
Um. And these could likely be the kinds of people who would be sent to the front, being good at maintaining things. And the others who would have been maintaining things might be slightly dead at this point.
Like a lot of major industries that Do Things and Want To Make A Profit, the actual numbers of people doing this kind of work is usually pared to the minimum anyway. Start hauling out every 5th worker to Send Over There.. well, one might get away with it for a while, but the loss of institutional knowledge could easily catch up with one.
So, it might not just be some direct Ukrainian shenanigans doing all this, although I imagine a bit of hacking of the power plant control systems could perhaps disable power plants and transmission control systems. It just might be a generic lack of effective people.
navguy12
Active Member
I wish/hope is Ukraine using cyber attacks that is doing this.
khorton
Member
I hope that this chaos is happening without any Ukrainian attacks. Then, if Ukraine manages to execute a cyber attack, things will be even worse for Russia
navguy12
Active Member
An editorial in today’s Toronto Star, written by a political professor in Minnesota.
FielderJones
Member
Canadian professor of political science with no apparent military experience. Probably as much practical military knowledge as Robert McNamara.
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
An editorial in today’s Toronto Star, written by a political professor in Minnesota.
Even as a mere complete layman I can almost entirely dissect this defeatist pile of junk.
1. As @FielderJones just posted – he is a political professor. What does he know about war? Probably nothing.
2. He conveniently completely fails to mention that Ukraine did not have any kind of air parity with the Dictator’s occupation forces leading into the 2023 spring and summer. Nor did UKR have the necessary amount of long range precision missiles. And UKR was also not allowed to use Western weapons to go after targets inside of the Dictator’s Russia. And finally – language like ”ballyhooed ’wonder weapons’” are IMO quite telling for what kind of agenda this actor has…
3. He completely misrepresents the relationship between Zaluzhny and Zelensky. And the support in UKR for the current UKR line in this war is still massive. His babbling about ’Ukr elites’ and ’grassroots’ are just further gaslighting and verbal junk.
4. He blatantly lies about the European support which has just been demonstrated by the UK and France. Germany has also already strongly sided with UKR. And the EU WILL continue to fund UKR. Hungary can not stop that. And the jury is still out with regards to ’the big country that can not be named’. And the rest of the Democratic West also stands with UKR.
5. He grossly exaggerates the capabilities of the Dictator’s electronic warfare capabilities.
6. He makes statements about the Dictator's economy that he bases on what – the Russian Dictator's propaganda?
7. And finally he pushes the Russian Dictator's wet dream – that UKR should negotiate from their current position.
But that’s not all…
8. Here’s another pile of junk from June in 2022 where he predicts that the Russian Dictator will win(!)...
It seems blatantly obvious to me that whoever this dude is – he is clearly working for the Russian Dictator's Kremlin.
The unpalatable truth in Ukraine
Whatever the shortcomings displayed by Russian forces in the opening phase of the war, recent battlefield developments suggest that they have found their footing .
thehill.com
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Timothy Snyder was lamenting in one of his lectures about how too few people study military history today.
The side who cannot win is Russia. As long as Ukraine doesn't give up, Russia can't win. That's a military certainty, cemented in a long record from military history.
Ukraine can win this war if the west gives them the tools to do it. That would include the means to cut Russia's supply lines. Take out the Kerch Bridge and bring the rest of Russia's supply vectors under enough threat and the entire south become untenable for Russia. Including Crimea.
The Donbas is a bit different. Russia has good solid supply lines to there so it's more difficult to starve them. But Russia is cutting their own throat with the meat waves.
Russia historically has fought wars by suffering very high casualties on themselves. They were a big country with a large population. Russia is #9 in population in the world, but they are #1 in land area by a large margin. Their population is also in sharp decline and has been for 40-50 years. That puts a significant percentage of their population into the senior citizen category and the last large cohort in their population is approaching retirement.
They are throwing away the segment of their population they can't afford to lose. In farming terms, they are eating their seed corn. Thinning out the 18-40 population like they are currently doing is just accelerating the decline in their population.
The population is getting more and more disgruntled with the situation.
Dictatorships always look strong because that's what strong men do. But in reality they are fragile. They always look strong right up to the point everything unravels at once. In our lifetimes some dictatorships have fallen apart and things have changed quickly.
Russia will probably break under the pressure eventually, though exactly when it will happen is hard to tell.
Tiger
Active Member
Is it possible the US has a secret deal with China that once Russia is run down enough, they will trade Taiwan for Russia? China can keep Russia, US can keep Taiwan? /s
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
Has there been that many Ukrainian big picture perspectives in this thread? IIRC there hasn't really...
Here's a four days old one from Dr. Alina Nychyk that paints a completely polar opposite view compared to that Canadian(?) politics professor. It can be listened to as a podcast.
She also has a Tweety-account.
twitter.com/AlinaNychyk
Here's a four days old one from Dr. Alina Nychyk that paints a completely polar opposite view compared to that Canadian(?) politics professor. It can be listened to as a podcast.
She also has a Tweety-account.
twitter.com/AlinaNychyk
FielderJones
Member
I identified Latham as Canadian because all his academic work was at Canadian universities: York, Queen's.
Directories - Macalester College - Acalog ACMS™
If it was 1915 Latham would be telling the French to give up land for peace.
Looks like the Ruzzia's ability to attack itself has been passed on to their flunkies.
Reuters: Houthis accidentally target cargo ship carrying Russian oil
Reuters: Houthis accidentally target cargo ship carrying Russian oil
Seems Ukraine promoted some more Russian machinery to submarine status. This was above->into the Sea of Azov, so Ukraine continues pushing Russia further out of the seas if confirmed it was them. Some are speculating Patriots were involved.
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