Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Russia/Ukraine conflict

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Seems Ukraine promoted some more Russian machinery to submarine status. This was above->into the Sea of Azov, so Ukraine continues pushing Russia further out of the seas if confirmed it was them. Some are speculating Patriots were involved.

If this is true, I’m just speachless.

To have such a high value asset lost in battle is stunning.

My only reference point WRT actively working with AWACS is flying in Maple/Red flag exercises (Alberta Canada, Nevada USA), Bosnia and central Africa; any high value assets were always well protected.

Stunning.
 
To have such a high value asset lost in battle is stunning.

If this news is a few days old, perhaps it explains the high helicopter kill the other day. UKR battle tactics are brilliant. Rather than face the bear in direct combat, it makes a lot more sense to first stomp on its toes and throw dirt in its eyes.
 
North Korea?

North Korea isn't really a dictatorship, it's more of an old fashioned monarchy. They have a succession system that has left the Kim family in power for 5 generations now with one leader inserted in there between Kim Tu-bong and Kim Il Sung.

Communist systems also have a central committee that usually pick the next leader who then has a significant amount of power once they get the job.

Strong leader systems with some system of succession and something other than just the singular leader in charge tend to have longevity because there isn't a power vacuum when the leader dies or is deposed.

True dictators rule by force of personality and often make sure there is nobody who could replace them. When they go, the country can fall apart and have trouble reorganizing. Iraq and Libya are in that state today. Other times the strong man will look strong one day and will be fleeing the next. This happened with Ferdinand Marcos in the Philippines in the 1986. Other sudden changes were Mubarak's sudden ouster in Egypt and Nicolae Ceauscu's removal in Romania.

Putin has gone the route of a singular dictator in Russia. He has actively put down anyone who tried to stand against him. He has arranged things so pretty much nobody but he can hold Russia together.

A number of people who have enough name recognition to succeed Putin if he were to be deposed or die like Dmitry Medvedev have frequently made crazy public statements like Russia is going to invade all of Europe next. They are saying these things to keep their heads attached to their body. If they have no credibility with the west because of these insane statements they are not much of a threat to Putin's power and Putin lets them continue breathing.

When Putin does go (he will die at some point even if he isn't deposed) Russia is going to face a succession crisis. They officially have a mechanism for replacing leaders: elections, but Putin has turned those into such a farce that it's highly unlikely they will pick his successor by free and fair elections.

If things get too wobbly in Russia Putin could find himself in the situation Marcos faced, or even the fate of Ceauscu.

Seems Ukraine promoted some more Russian machinery to submarine status. This was above->into the Sea of Azov, so Ukraine continues pushing Russia further out of the seas if confirmed it was them. Some are speculating Patriots were involved.


Russia does not have the means to build AWACS anymore. When Ukraine badly damaged a couple of them on the ground last year it was seen as a big deal. Losing another one, for any reason is also a big deal. Ukraine might have hit it with some weapon we don't know about yet, but it's also possible that the plane had some kind of mechanical failure that resulted in its loss.

The Russian air force has been hard pressed for almost two years now. They aren't great with maintenance in the best of times. The war has been causing attrition of airframes. I read several months ago that the Ka-52 fleet was degraded due to maintenance issues. Russia doesn't build spare parts for their aircraft like the west does, so when aircraft get wear and tear from combat operations they need to start pirating parts off other airframes to keep some flying. Satellite photos showed a fair number of Ka-52s sitting in read area airfields with no rotor blades. They had been removed to keep the others flying.

Russia's MiG-31 fleet has been pushed hard too. They don't have many of them and initially those were the only aircraft capable of carrying their longest range air to air missile, so they had some airborne at all times. They have now modified some Su-35s to carry those missiles.

Losing a couple of their AWACS last year forced the remaining AWACS into heavier rotation to fill the needs. It's possible they pushed the planes beyond their maintenance limits and something major failed in flight.
 
Canadian professor of political science with no apparent military experience. Probably as much practical military knowledge as Robert McNamara.
And a self-professed ultra-conservative, so his opinions in this piece are no surprise. Check out what he has said about COVID for more details.
 
Yeah up to 12 hours without power in Russia's capitol is pretty wild. Wouldn't have guessed this. I would have thought that power shouldn't be any problem in Russia, just burn all that natural gas they can't sell now.

Who's freezing in the dark now, with their PhD in Ecominomics... :p

D690.jpg
 
So, it might not just be some direct Ukrainian shenanigans doing all this, although I imagine a bit of hacking of the power plant control systems could perhaps disable power plants and transmission control systems. It just might be a generic lack of effective people.

There's a rumor that, before the St. Petersburg Wildberries warehouse burnt down, their was a raid by Russian authorizties which rounded up ~5,000 immigrant workers to be sent to the Ukrainian front. Also CCTV cameras and fire alarms were turned off 30 min before the fire. If the dog don't bark...
 
If this is true, I’m just speachless.

To have such a high value asset lost in battle is stunning.

My only reference point WRT actively working with AWACS is flying in Maple/Red flag exercises (Alberta Canada, Nevada USA), Bosnia and central Africa; any high value assets were always well protected.

Stunning.

I'm not up to speed: which has the greater range circle, a Patriot Battery or an A-50/Russian AWACS? When those 2 circles overlap, you're going to lose some kit... :D
 
Last edited:
I'm not up to speed: which has the greater range circle, a Patriot Battery or an A-50/Russian AWACS? When those 2 circles overlap, you're going to lose some kit... :D

The longest range missile for the Patriot has a range of 99 miles. The other missiles have ranges of 65 miles, 50 miles, and 75 miles. It can be used in the anti-aircraft mode, but it's primarily a point anti-ballistic missile defense system. That doesn't need range, it needs to be able to react to the threat very quickly and get the missile in the air.

The A-50 has a range of 400 miles.

It wasn't a Patriot that took it out. If it was the Ukrainians, it was probably a weapon system that was slipped to Ukraine under the radar so to speak. It's almost like the Ukrainians are slipping into Russian air space with F-22s, but I'm sure the US hasn't transferred any of those.

This is interesting too. Found by someone who cruises the Russian internet looking for information

Russia is having the utility problems because they drafted all the utility workers into the war and got them killed in meat waves. Russia's utilities are failing because the maintenance workers are dead. The author suspects a Black Swan event is coming to Russia soon.
 
Sounds like long range missile or drone strike on airport(s). Storm shadow can do this, as well as ATACMS. Lots of different drones can be responsible.
All the prior one-off, partially effective airstrip bombings of one or two planes have had me chafing at the bit wondering when Ukraine was going to end these measly half-way strikes and replace them with the necessary total obliteration of Russian airfields and seaports that leaves absolute nothing of value and no one remaining, like Russia has done to Ukraine's cities and towns.

In fact, THAT is how this war must end: with Ukraine obliterating all Rusian institutions, people, and production of war materials, and taking any that remain back to Ukraine forf it's own security.
 
Last edited:
Last edited by a moderator:
Allegedly:

The official TG channel of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces Ukraine, General Zaluzhnyi, released a video, depicting the events around the two shot down Russian planes. You can see several bogeys. Two of them were fast losing speed and then suddenly vanished from the screen. The other planes left as fast as they can. [...

twitter.com/Tendar/status/1746856498683089159?s=20