EVNow
Well-Known Member
I think on both sides, the basic calculation would be what level of escalation is ok without causing direct war.
US and USSR played this game for 40 years ….
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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
US and USSR played this game for 40 years ….
There is air superiority and air supremacy. With air superiority the enemy still has some aerial assets, but one power pretty much dominates. The predictions were that Russia would have air supremacy day 1. When the Germans invaded in 1941 they got air superiority day 1 smashing most Soviet aircraft on the ground. The Red AF held on and were able to fight back a bit, but their capabilities were dramatically weakened.
Having air supremacy gives a force a lot of control, but it doesn't mean complete control. The US had air supremacy or at least air superiority in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Vietnam and lost all three conflicts. When the enemy controls the skies, moving vehicles around gets difficult, but humans can still move about and enemy troops can hide among civilian populations.
Personally I think Putin is fairly intelligent. He has demonstrated it in the past. However he's lost all his caution and went all in on a pair of twos. There are rumors floating about that he's terminally ill. There are also stories that over the last two years he's shut everyone out of his orbit except two nutters who have filled his head with all sorts of religious mysticism and ideas of taking the Russian empire back to the 1700s.
Historically he has always worked within the limits of what the Russian military could actually do. He's taken small bites against weakened countries. The Russian army might be a joke, but the intelligence services are still world class. If he had actually listened to them they would have told him that Ukraine was much stronger than it was in 2014 and at best it was iffy they could take the country.
In a break from his pattern, he completely ignored his intelligence services and went with his plan. He's showing signs of being delusional, whether from illness, listening to crack pots, or something else we don't know. His behavior with this war is out of pattern from his behavior the last 20 years. He's always been a savvy gambler, only throwing the dice when he thought the odds were in his favor.
More than just losing the army in Ukraine, he has had a slow frog boil with Europe where he got the European economy so entangled with his fossil fuels that he could manipulate Europe into doing his bidding. By invading Ukraine he has completely blown up 20 years of work. Europe now sees they made a bargain with the devil and they are working to get out of it ASAP.
Even if Putin is deposed and somebody more reasonable comes to power, Europe is still probably going to work on ridding themselves of Russian fossil fuels, or at least not become dependent on it. Making sure there are always alternatives available.
Economically this war is going to be a disaster for Russia that will last for decades. The country of Russia as it exists today has been under the control of Moscow for centuries, but I wonder if the turmoil after this war might break up the country. Chechnya has tried to break away before. The Far Eastern part of the country is very sparsely populated, but it's a different world from western Russia. If it broke away it would probably fall under Chinese influence immediately.
I don't see any of this ending well for Russia.
For one, I find your posts interesting, but how could you possibly know what Russian intelligence services are telling Putin, just to pick on one of your bolder comments. Maybe it’s just your writing style…….
Ukraine is going to "win" by preventing Russia from "winning" and making the cost of the war unsustainable, in terms of finances, military equipment and personnel.
Sooner or later a negotiated deal will be struck.
These 100 switchblades cost 600K in total, the initial deployment is just a trial, and even if they only increase Russian losses of personnel, that will help.
But a US/EU "war effort" to ramp up the production of switchblades can't be ruled out. This sort of deal is public, because it puts a bit more negotiating pressure on Russia, It isn't that different to previous arms supplies.
A US "war effort" to ramp up production and testing of the bigger 600 series switchblade can't be ruled out;
Mostly these defensive weapons are destroying far more expensive attacking weapons, tanks, helicopters and planes, that is part of making the cost of continuing the war unsustainable.
The US can provide switchblades, javelins and stingers or far longer than the Russians can provide troops, tanks and helicopters, and Russia is a long way from closing resupply.
Ukraine has it's own reasons for wanting a speedy end to the war, mainly civilian casualties, and mounting economic damage.
Both sides needing a deal is the perfect negotiating balance.
It is said the raid on the FSB offices and the "house arrest" of 2 senior figures, is because of incorrect intelligence.
Large sums of money were paid to the FSB to recruit and fund Ukrainian dissidents who would organise support in favour of the Russian invasion.
Glowing reports of the support for Russia in the local populace and the success of the mission were provided.
The money mostly ended up in someone's back pocket, because those pocketing the money never expected an invasion would happen.
That isn't the whole story, but it is part of the story...
Same with a lot of military funding, it ended up in someone's back pocket.
So when it came to war, what Russia actually had didn't match what it was supposed to have.
Ummmm... about t
In the Ukraine the Russians have not achieved supremacy and they never will now. Slovenia transporting an advanced air defense system to Ukraine, US supplying portable ground to air. It's going to be impossible. Not even able to achieve superiority would be my guess.
To your point, air supremacy means little when trying to occupy a hostile nation. The consequences of this tragedy will be long lasting for Russians. Because at the end of it all the Russian foreign reserves are going to be used to pay for rebuilding Ukraine. I should say I don't believe all the FSB crap. I mean I know many Ukrainians don't like Russians. Its' not a secret. They fought against Russia in the civil wars, they fought a guerilla campaign to 1940 then with Nazi's til 45 and then guerrilla war til 50. It's not a secret. 40 years of fighting and killing when they get a chance they do the Orange spring thing and kick out the puppet. Who in Russia thinks they want Russia back in. Especially after the Crimea invasion. I can't believe anyone is thinking FSB is needed to do analysis. I could see that they were supposed to line up a puppet govt and fake support, etc. But a whole bunch of analysis?
(ok I just have to channel my inner stand up comedian). It would be like thinking we would just invade Canada, what idiot would think that would just come off easily. Canada isn not like Ukraine of course, they surrender faster than the French. It's the polar bears you have to watch out for and while they are distracting you the damn penguins come up behind you and peck your testicles off. I mean everyone knows you don't F with Canada. Polar bears....penguins. Bad news. .
About losing that iraq thing...They won...they just didn't know what to do with it afterwards. Same in Afghanistan. In both cases won but no plan so they stayed. Idiots in white house...literally 1 idiot. His father did not make that mistake. Russia won in Chechnya as well, just were willing to slaughter people and it took a round II.
In the Ukraine the Russians have not achieved supremacy and they never will now. Slovenia transporting an advanced air defense system to Ukraine, US supplying portable ground to air. It's going to be impossible. Not even able to achieve superiority would be my guess.
To your point, air supremacy means little when trying to occupy a hostile nation. The consequences of this tragedy will be long lasting for Russians. Because at the end of it all the Russian foreign reserves are going to be used to pay for rebuilding Ukraine. I should say I don't believe all the FSB crap. I mean I know many Ukrainians don't like Russians. Its' not a secret. They fought against Russia in the civil wars, they fought a guerilla campaign to 1940 then with Nazi's til 45 and then guerrilla war til 50. It's not a secret. 40 years of fighting and killing when they get a chance they do the Orange spring thing and kick out the puppet. Who in Russia thinks they want Russia back in. Especially after the Crimea invasion. I can't believe anyone is thinking FSB is needed to do analysis. I could see that they were supposed to line up a puppet govt and fake support, etc. But a whole bunch of analysis?
(ok I just have to channel my inner stand up comedian). It would be like thinking we would just invade Canada, what idiot would think that would just come off easily. Canada isn not like Ukraine of course, they surrender faster than the French. It's the polar bears you have to watch out for and while they are distracting you the damn penguins come up behind you and peck your testicles off. I mean everyone knows you don't F with Canada. Polar bears....penguins. Bad news. .
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SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
'Frontline': China's Russia war reporter raises eyebrows
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/russia-ukraine-war-chinese-reporter-lu-yuguang-only-foreign-journalist-working-from-russias-frontline/ZWJJKONBB65UNGYUVKFKQWUG3Y/
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/russia-ukraine-war-chinese-reporter-lu-yuguang-only-foreign-journalist-working-from-russias-frontline/ZWJJKONBB65UNGYUVKFKQWUG3Y/
interesting, I think that a nato presence would only help Putin. Build support at home. I wonder why he thinks we should respond as Putin wants? If was does intervene I'd do it through Romania/Hungary. Gets one closer to Crimea faster. You'd want to cut the peninsula as fast as possible to deny that easy exit to retreating troops, forcing them on the much longer slog back across the plains to the ol'motherland. Then
EVNow
Well-Known Member
One big problem I have with all these analysts is I have no idea what their real story is. Are they ideological, have financial interests, political angles ....
This video caught my attention as I was reading a favorite blog to take my mind off of things. It is an animation called “How to Fix a Broken World,” and it is a poem by a 4 yr old animated by a Ukrainian artist.
I’m linking the blog as well for proper attribution and deeper context.
How to Fix a World: A Four-Year-Old’s Prayerful Poem, Animated by a Ukrainian Artist
https://www.themarginalian.org/2022/03/10/preschool-poets-bullets/
I’m linking the blog as well for proper attribution and deeper context.
How to Fix a World: A Four-Year-Old’s Prayerful Poem, Animated by a Ukrainian Artist
https://www.themarginalian.org/2022/03/10/preschool-poets-bullets/
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Human-piloted Fighter/Bomber a/c have NOT been tested in this war (certainly not Western a/c like the F-35 you're writing off). Don't count them out (at your peril).
Few facts, much speculation as explosions heard in Belarus
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/few-facts-much-speculation-as-explosions-heard-in-belarus/
Worrisome, what does this portend..
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/few-facts-much-speculation-as-explosions-heard-in-belarus/
Worrisome, what does this portend..
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
FTFY. 7-hr old story, not picked up in MSM. Disinformation campaign continues.
The intelligence services were engaged before the invasion. Somebody in there gave the US Putin's playbook. Biden was publicly calling out Putin's moved before he did them because of this.
Somebody in the FSB has also been feeding intelligence to Ukraine. I personally think the FSB letters are real, but regardless of whether they are or not, some details are congruent with the intelligence passed on to the Ukrainians and US.
This shows that there was enough concern within the services about the leadership failure that they decided to tell the enemy Putin's plans. The FSB letters describe the process, this analyst is told to write a rosy report, and then their boss rewrites it to be more rosy, and as it goes up the chain it's further warped to sound rosier until it doesn't look anything like the original report which was fiction to begin with.
The FSB letters doesn't say whether or not this is new, but I suspect the intense spinning of facts is fairly new because Putin is less tolerant of bad news than he used to be.
The Russians have a lot of problems with their military, corruption, one horse economy, etc., but their intelligence services developed during the cold war were in the same league with the best in the world, and all evidence is they have stayed close to that level since.
The US can win a conventional war almost anywhere, but that's not winning the whole war. If the US had approached Iraq like they did Japan and Germany after WW II they probably could have won the peace, but once an insurgency gets going, all that weaponry is of limited usefulness. In the end the US left Iraq with its tail between its legs because it couldn't win the insurgency. The US won the first phase of the war easily, it lost the war.
Insurgencies are hard to win. High tech weapons can help, but boots on the ground is the most important thing. The magic ratio is 20 troops per 1000 population. Less than that, an occupation is almost certain to fail unless the civilian population is accepting the occupation. In the last 120 years, less than the magic ratio worked once in Japan after WW II.
Putin wants to cast this war as a war with NATO because the Russian public can get behind a war with NATO. 40% of the Russian public has relatives in Ukraine and don't have a big beef with Ukraine. That has led to less than wholehearted support for the war in Ukraine.
Interestingly I was talking last night with someone who recently had a Zoom call with fellow professionals in Ukraine and Russia. The Russian was initially in favor of the war until the Ukrainian made him aware of just what was happening in Ukraine. When he realized what Russia was doing there he was horrified.
On another note, I have been saying from the beginning that Russia can't win this war. Another thought ocuerred to me today. If Russia were to defeat the Ukrainian army and occupy the country, they won't be able to put a puppet in charge because the puppet would have a shelf life measured in minutes as soon as Russia leaves. The Ukrainians would immediately switch to an insurgency and they don't have enough troops to win.
On top of that, the rest of the world would likely just keep most or all the sanctions in place until Russia withdraws and most likely until Russia agrees to restore the 2013 borders for Ukraine. Russia can't take the financial bleed for very long.
The only question as this point is how badly Russia is going to lose.
Unfortunately Ukraine is going to continue to get trashed until Russia runs out of resources.
Xepa777
Banned
Being 100% honest, if Ukraine actually holds off until Russia has to leave then this underdog story will spawn 100s of video games lol. So much more diversity than your ww2 CoD game.
Another kick in the nuts for Putin
www.express.co.uk
Putin humiliated as kidnapped mayor RESCUED in 'special operation'
MELITOPOL'S mayor has been released from Russian captivity in a "special operation", Ukraine has said.
www.express.co.uk
Another kick in the nuts for Putin
Putin humiliated as kidnapped mayor RESCUED in 'special operation'
MELITOPOL'S mayor has been released from Russian captivity in a "special operation", Ukraine has said.
My partner said she read it was a prisoner swap, but it's good the mayor is free.
This was on a sidebar from the same article:
Putin shambles: Russian forces flattened as footage shows military column wiped out
The vehicles have the Z in a box and the images are supposedly from Kharkhiv. The terrain is snowy, so it probably is in the north. This is significant because the Z in a box is what was used for vehicles based in Crimea at the beginning of the war. It appears the Russians have shifted at least some vehicles from the southern theater to the north.
This is a supply convoy. I've suspected the tempo in the south has decreased because they are shifting supply to the north and this convoy are probably from a supply battalion shifted north to try and replace the heavy losses in supply vehicles they've had in the north. The Russians have a precious few supply battalions.
Not unexpected, will take years for the pipelines but India’s deal will take the edge off for Putin.
www.express.co.uk
Russia turns east: Three countries undermine West sanction with Putin
AS WESTERN powers come down hard on Russian energy, Putin has turned to countries in Asia to sell his oil and gas.
www.express.co.uk
