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Russia/Ukraine conflict

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Reports coming in of another A-50 being downed fairly near where the first one was hit, but further to the east in Krasnodar Krai, which could confirm the rumours it was friendly fire.

If so, that's a massive embarrassment regardless of whether it's RUS's or UKR's doing.

They will have barely a handful left now and probably not all of those are in working condition. Not to mention a crewing shortage.

If it was hit by UKR, perhaps this is preparation for the deployment of the first F-16s?
 
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Reports coming in of another A-50 being downed fairly near where the first one was hit, but further to the east in Krasnodar Krai, which could confirm the rumours it was friendly fire.

If so, that's a massive embarrassment regardless of whether it's RUS's or UKR's doing.

They will have barely a handful left now and probably not all of those are in working condition. Not to mention a crewing shortage.
If true, that is amazing good fortune! Let's hope.
 
We need to get more Patriots to Ukraine asap.

Cost : Benefit ratio for Patriots is fantastic here.

Russia remains willing to lose much of their Air Force in exchange for much cheaper Patriot missiles. Seems they don't learn lessons from everything. I chalk if up to the foolish push to try to give Putin any wins ahead of his sham election.
 
Whoever shot down the A-50, great work!


I find it hilarious that Russia would rather take credit.

Why does it look like several bright burning blobs appearing? What are we seeing?

Oh... and also, AGAIN!! AGAIN!!! Disarm Russia!!

Edit- the A-50 photo on Defense-Blog looks like such a pristine Faberge of an airplane too.
 
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Cost : Benefit ratio for Patriots is fantastic here.

Russia remains willing to lose much of their Air Force in exchange for much cheaper Patriot missiles. Seems they don't learn lessons from everything. I chalk if up to the foolish push to try to give Putin any wins ahead of his sham election.
Agreed. The timing by the Ukraine Air Force is impeccable. Diminish Russian air defenses substantially, then let the F-16s do their thing.

 
If that is the A-50, it would seem to be defensive flares. One report said the crew knew there was a missile incoming, so that would tie in but there have been many videos in the past which do not show what was reported and many claims made which have been shown to be false, so at this stage it's all guesswork how and why it happened.
As long as it happened, I'm not too bothered. 😁
Shame Putin (or one of the doubles) wasn't joy riding on that aircraft today. Maybe another time...
 
This is one of the several reasons it remains not correct for those who call the current status a "stalemate". The terrestrial front lines are not moving significantly, but that does not define a stalemate.

Some reasons we are NOT in a stalemate include:

1) the Russians are sacrificing an increasingly greater ratio of their soldiers compared to Ukraine
2) the grain corridor was opened back up and the Russian Black Sea fleet continues to get sunk and pushed back farther
3) as noted here, the Russian Air Force is being destroyed at an absurd clip in the last 7-8 days and Russia is increasingly less able to project air power (for reconnaissance and munition delivery)
4) F-16s should be here in a few months
5) longer range missiles for Ukraine seem more likely now than a few weeks ago...


Sad that we could save many more Ukrainian lives and swing this more in their favor by escalating support for them instead of the opposite. And even if we did not care for the Ukrainians, this is chump change for the West to strongly improve their security and position against tyrants.
 
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Looks like we are finally all green-lit to Sweden's accession to NATO. As usual, Orban wanted to extort negotiate something in return:

Orban Gives Green Light to Sweden’s NATO Bid

Viktor Orban, the Hungarian prime minister, said after a meeting with Sweden’s leader, and a deal for more fighter jets, that the two countries are “ready to fight for each other.”

...The sudden warming of relations between the two countries followed a decision by Sweden to provide Hungary with four Swedish-made Gripen fighter jets in addition to the 14 its air force already uses, and a promise that Saab, the maker of the warplanes, will open an artificial intelligence research center in Hungary.
Hungary had been stalling for 19 months on ratifying Sweden’s admission to NATO, a delay that had puzzled and exasperated the United States and other members of the military alliance....
...Some diplomats and analysts saw Mr. Orban’s sudden focus on expanded military cooperation with Sweden as a face-saving way out of an impasse that critics say had damaged Hungary’s reputation as a reliable ally and secured no clear benefits in return...


https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/23/...ytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
 
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It appears the Russians are using the Zapp Brannigan method of defeating Ukraine's Patriot Missile batteries. For those who don't know what I mean, basically throwing everything at the Ukrainians until they run out of ammunition. It may seem like I say that jokingly. However, this is what they have been doing on the frontlines like Avdiivka. Basically, meat wave after meat wave until Ukrainians run out of ammunition and are forced to retreat. It appears Putin is making the VKS do the same. It may just work. Ukraine is currently experiencing a "catastrophic shortage of ammunition and air defenses". I fear we may soon see the collapse of Ukraine rather soon, simply because of a handful of US Republican politicians have decided to side with Putin/Trump and cut Ukraine off at the knees.

 
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It appears the Russians are using the Zap Brannigan method of defeating Ukraine's Patriot Missile batteries. For those who don't know what I mean, basically throwing everything at the Ukrainians until they run out of ammunition. It may seem like I say that jokingly. However, this is what they have been doing on the frontlines like Avdiivka. Basically, meat wave after meat wave until Ukrainians run out of ammunition and are forced to retreat. It appears Putin is making the VKS do the same. It may just work. Ukraine is currently experiencing a "catastrophic shortage of ammunition and air defenses". I fear we may soon see the collapse of Ukraine rather soon, simply because of a handful of US Republican politicians have decided to side with Putin/Trump and cut Ukraine off at the knees.
Would not put such a brute force strategy past Russia, but that would still be a really bad idea for them.

Ukraine is using the Patriots well, selectively using them on high value targets only, when they can. There are multiple times more Patriot missiles between Europe, US, Canada, Japan, S Korea, etc than all of Russian aircraft and their most advanced missiles. The U.S. alone is apparently on track to make 550 PCA-3 MSE Patriot missiles a year and Patriot missiles are manufactured abroad via allies as well and/or in the works with ramping production.

That said, completely agree with urgent need to replenish Ukraine with many such things and provide rapidly growing support.
 
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Would not put such a brute force strategy past Russia, but that would still be a really bad idea for them.

Ukraine is using the Patriots well, selectively using them on high value targets only, when they can. There are multiple times more Patriot missiles between Europe, US, Canada, Japan, S Korea, etc than all of Russian aircraft and their most advanced missiles. The U.S. alone is apparently on track to make 550 PCA-3 MSE Patriot missiles a year and Patriot missiles are manufactured abroad via allies as well and/or in the works with ramping production.
It's a terrible idea for Russia if we simply keep re-supplying Ukraine. Russia will attrit their military and be spent after about 3 years.

However, since the end of 2023 it appears Putin has confidence that he has the US political system sufficiently jammed up that no US aid may come to Ukraine. At least until after the 2024 election. Who knows what happens after. So it may be a brilliant gambit by Putin that appears to be working as of now. It appears to me that Ukraine is beginning to rapidly decline. We may well see a "Lanchester Square Law Collapse" that some here have predicting.... only about Ukraine instead of Russia. Pretty gloomy reading lately: Ukraine Situation Report: U.S. Warns Of Looming “Catastrophic” Arms Shortage