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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
Is this theory plausible? Are we to expect another incursion somewhere during the Paris Olympics?
All the Times Russia Invaded Sovereign States as the World’s Attention Was Focused on the Olympics
Russia has long exploited the Olympic Truce as a ruse to launch its wars. Putin knows that the best time to attack is while everyone watches the games as it’ll…united24media.com
Putin would be an idiot to open a new military action now. His army is struggling to fight Ukraine. Going in somewhere else would put incredible strain on an army that is in trouble with the one war it has.
Technically their most advanced tank is the T-14, but that has not gone into regular production. The turret problem is interesting. Something is causing the turret to spin out of control. Whatever that is, it's limiting Russia's ability to use that tank which is a good thing for the Ukrainians!
Putin might be calling for a ceasefire because something is reaching the breaking point in the Russian military. We know that most of their restorable vehicles have been taken from storage at this point. Most of what's left in storage is only good for spare parts. They may be looking at the strain on supply and hoping for a cease fire so they can start to rebuild?
Russia has also been taking staggering personnel losses. It's possible that their internal intelligence is saying that the populations being pressed into service are reaching the breaking point?
Hard to know for sure why the sudden talk of a ceasefire other than a certainty that one would help Russia more than Ukraine at this point.
DanCar
Active Member
Crossing my fingers hoping he over extends his army. Hitler did it and the two seem similar.
Tiger
Active Member
Just a reminder, any ceasefire just means they will have time to regroup and try again. They need to be depleted to the point they topple on their own sword like when returning from Afghanistan.
Also the willingness to negotiate tells a tale Russia is running out of time and soon they will have to battle on multiple fronts.
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Crossing my fingers hoping he over extends his army. Hitler did it and the two seem similar.
There are some similarities, but he got drawn into the Mediterranean to bail out the Italians who were losing to the British. He thought the British were bottled up on their island and that the Kriegsmarine could strangle them by cutting off their supply. His oil supply was limited and he thought he could knock out the Soviets quickly, then turn back to Britain when he had an unlimited oil supply from Russia.
The Wehrmacht was only minimally engaged in the Mediterranean in 1941 when he launched his attack on the USSR. He was able to start the new front in the East with pretty much his entire forces engaged.
Russia doesn't have anything to spare for a new front. The army is completely engaged in Ukraine. They are showing signs of not having enough air defenses to cover all the places where they are needed. The army is forced to employ obsolete tanks from the 50s and 60s and they are throwing thousands of bodies into the fray who are getting killed in large numbers. The last time the Ukrainians claimed less than 1000 casualties in a day was May 10. Russia is struggling to keep the army supplied.
Casualties of Russia in Ukraine - official data
Opening a new front has a price. The forces need to be gathered for the attack as well as supply built up for the assault. That build up can't be hidden. US intelligence saw that in late 2021 and raised the alarm.
If Russia does plan to open a new front, they will have to pull forces back from Ukraine as well as supplies to prepare for the next invasion. They built up forces and supplies for the current assault on Kharkhiv for months.
There are no build ups going on right now. Russia's only realistic option for a second front would be to go after one of the former Soviet Republics, but that could easily go sideways because they don't have the forces. The Kharkhiv operation is taking some ground, but it's costing them massive losses. Attacking NATO would be the dumbest move possible.
These over-the-horizon radar installations will be doing the work of the A-50 AWACS fleet which is probably now non-operational or at least severely stretched.
If you’re trying to persuade allies to let you use long-range strike weapons on Russian territory, a live subject at the moment, then why on earth would you hit an early-warning radar that has little obvious battlefield utility but does affect Russia’s nuclear deterrent? x.com
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) May 24, 2024
Ukraine hit the one and only 29B6 Container radar Russia has back in April and now this DM radar looks a bit secondhand.
I think this, along with the continued SAM strikes is more preparation for the arrival of F-16s.
navguy12
Active Member
Tiger
Active Member
Paywalled:
NATO’s boss wants to free Ukraine to strike hard inside Russia
Jens Stoltenberg says the rules on using Western weapons should be eased
May 24th 2024
Nato secretaries-general do not normally attack the policies of the alliance’s biggest and most important member country. But Jens Stoltenberg, whose ten-year stint in charge is coming to an end, has done just that. In an interview with The Economist on May 24th, he called on NATO allies supplying weapons to Ukraine to end their prohibition on using them to strike military targets in Russia. Mr Stoltenberg’s clear, if unnamed, target was the policy maintained by Joe Biden, America’s president, of controlling what Ukraine can and cannot attack with American-supplied systems. [My u.] [...
NATO’s boss wants to free Ukraine to strike hard inside Russia
Jens Stoltenberg says the rules on using Western weapons should be easedwww.economist.com
NATO should authorize Ukraine to smoke Kaliningrad's GPS jammers:
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Tiger
Active Member
Over-the-horizon radar does not have the capability of an airborne radar system to see aircraft hugging the terrain. Under some conditions they could see aircraft that low, but an AWACS type system can see them much better and much further away.
Not good, though describing Kaliningrad as "occupied" is a bit of a stretch. The Russians took it from Germany at the end of WW II and it's been a part of Russia ever since.
At the same time Poland was moved westward, being given part of Germany and Belarus and Ukraine were made larger. Lviv would be an occupied city under the same claim.
Somewhat historically relevant, the five days between 07 Dec 1941 and 11 Dec 1941:
Review: America’s two-front dilemma in World War II
Books about World War II are ubiquitous in the nonfiction section, but "Hitler's American Gamble" is the rare recent work with a genuinely new contribution to make, not just to our understanding of the past but also to our understanding of the present.www.americamagazine.org
Roosevelt was trying to figure out how to declare war on Germany because Germany hadn't done anything hostile against the US. But Hitler declared war on the US so his u-boats could operate within US coastal waters.
navguy12
Active Member
The Nazis were already shooting at US warships months before the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor
The US officially declared war on the Nazis on December 11, 1941, but the US Navy had already been fighting them in the Atlantic for months.
www.businessinsider.com
The Nazis were already shooting at US warships months before the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor
The US officially declared war on the Nazis on December 11, 1941, but the US Navy had already been fighting them in the Atlantic for months.
The Kearny didn't rise to the level to give Roosevelt the political capital to declare war on Germany.
navguy12
Active Member
Agreed, but there had been hostility from Germany against the United States prior to the formal declaration of war.
Typical strategy by US to deal with electronic jammers and radar is to send in electronic warfare planes to trigger the devices. They determine the locations and frequencies used by the enemy. Right behind those technology planes are fighter bombers, who will destroy to discovered locations.
This opens up the air to US dominance, a critical component of command and control.
Russia's strategy of launching attacks from well inside their Country, will open up the need to take those locations out of action.
This opens up the air to US dominance, a critical component of command and control.
Russia's strategy of launching attacks from well inside their Country, will open up the need to take those locations out of action.
Sweden appears to be first out of the gate:
DanCar
Active Member
In depth analysis of Russia's production and contrast with west.
Lots of details on tank warfare in Ukraine:
Overview of rockets, missiles, and cluster munitions:
Lots of details on tank warfare in Ukraine:
Overview of rockets, missiles, and cluster munitions:
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The first sinking of a US warship was the Jacob Jones sunk on Dec 6, 1941 by a u-boat. The Atlantic was a dangerous place by late 1941, but the Germans could claim that attacks on US ships were accidents.
Many times the Wild Weasel planes are both prey and hunters carrying the AGM-88s themselves. The Wild Weasel guys are considered a bit nuts to deliberately get painted by enemy radar. But on a modern battlefield anything that emits EM energy can become a target.
With the fight close to the Russian land border, the Russians do have an advantage if the Ukrainians are limited from using western weapons within Russia. The Russians can support their forces from across the border with relative impunity.
Russia also has a simpler supply picture when fighting around Kharkiv or in the Donbas. Both areas can be supplied from within Russia fairly easily. Their situation in the south is much more tenuous. If the Ukrainians succeed in interdicting the Azov Sea road and cutting the Kerch Bridge, all their forces in the south will be in an immediate supply problem. They can't create similar supply problems in the Donbas or around Kharkiv.
navguy12
Active Member
Well, someone isn’t correct.
From the linked Business Insider article in my original post:
Edit: That same link: The Nazis were already shooting at US warships months before the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor
Yes, and the American public weren't willing to go to war over it.
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
From Trent Telenko on X. Allegedly:
I've seen a lot of accounts touting this Bain and Company consulting report Sky News is publicizing about Russians beating the West 3-to-1 shell production.
I don't buy it because the text shows a lot of typical consulting tricks (See text [below]) ...
Russian shell crisis [tread]
1/
x.com/TrentTelenko/status/1794812519724511268
I've seen a lot of accounts touting this Bain and Company consulting report Sky News is publicizing about Russians beating the West 3-to-1 shell production.
I don't buy it because the text shows a lot of typical consulting tricks (See text [below]) ...
Russian shell crisis [tread]
1/
x.com/TrentTelenko/status/1794812519724511268
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