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Russia/Ukraine conflict

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I hope we are not cheering for such people ...

I think that the complete Twitter feed is well-balanced. Some are saying it's a fake video. Others are saying that Russian prisoners are being treated humanely and if they weren't, it would be a violation of the Geneva Convention. And others are horrified.

But the main point is that this threat is a scare tactic and compared to bombing civilians, threatening to cut someone's balls off is pretty tame. This isn't a video game being broadcast on Twitch. Real people are dying and there's only one person that is responsible
 
This is probably the best hope for a speedy resolution:-

The Directorate claimed Bortnikov and Putin had a falling out after Putin blamed him for “fatal miscalculations” in the slow-going and costly invasion of Ukraine.

“Bortnikov and his department were responsible for analyzing the mood of the population of Ukraine and the capacity of the Ukrainian army,” the Directorate said.

This is interesting, if Bortnikov gains power on the back of providing Putin with inaccurate intelligence, it could be a power play within Russia has contributed to starting the war.

Or perhaps Ukraine intelligence is just keen to widen the rift between Bortnikov and Putin.

Ukraine has definitely indicated no ceding of territory and no restrictions on military power or sovereignty. So currently no possible off-ramp for Putin which isn't a humiliating back down.
 
I hope we are not cheering for such people ...

I hope this isn't true.

There are Russian trolls posting on Twitter and some deep fake videos. So I'm not entirely convinced, as previously Ukraine has indicated captured Russians were being treating in accordance with international law. Ukraine needs to ensure it retains the high moral ground
 
According to BBC News, China has officially stated now they will not be providing any aid to Russia.
Oddly from the perspective of the Chinese, the notion on Russia asking China for aid reported by western countries is seen as a form of propaganda painting the Russians having trouble winning the war in Ukraine. My dad said on Chinese forums, people are speculating that the aids Russia wanted (MREs and anti air missiles) are odd and is probably fake news because the Russians already have air superiority and they can't handle Chinese's MREs as it's not the type of food Russians eat.

This is part of the pro-Russian propaganda coming out of China calling the need for aid fake news. Disclaimer, my dad is on the side of Putin and Russia as he is fully entrenched into their propaganda. I find it hilarious that with all this free press, he actively seek press from the Chinese perspective, mainly due to language barrier.
 
The question is - do people really believe in government propaganda in authoritarian countries ?

I've to look for scholarly papers on this - but from my reading - this is not the case. Few believed in Soviet propaganda within USSR. Iraqi people didn't believe Saddam.

But in US a lot of people do believe in propaganda - with anyone saying something different relegated to "fringe". All you need in the US is to have both Dems & GOP push a particular story (see Venezuela). I'd say - it is only in the last few years that GOP & Dems have started pushing different stories on international issues. They used to not question the official story. Not just politicians, almost everyone in the media too.

In Russia - if Putin just closes all news and only tries to push his propaganda, few people will believe. Ofcourse, Putin has been able to control the media for a long time .... and those who believed him before, will need some kind of wake-up call to start not believing him now.

There are always people who believe and are skeptical. There is someone here in this thread who has talked about his wife and the arguments she has with her mother. Her mother buys everything Putin says and a lot of her mother's generation has drunk the Kool-Aid.

In a closed media system the doubters can't access any other point of view and often even talking about their doubts can land them in prison. So the doubters keep their mouths shut and don't know how many people share their views. The believers are reinforced by the news. There are also a lot of people in every culture and sub-culture who are mostly apolitical, but like to get along with their peers, so they will take up whatever their peers are going on about and not really think about it.

Your distortion of what I said is "fascinating".

People in autocracies don't believe in propaganda because the difference in what the authorities say vs what they say in real life daily is large.

In US (and other democracies) - you can't lie too much about everyday life because of the same issues. Ofcourse didn't stop the previous President. BUT, when it comes to foreign affairs its very easy. There is no lived in experience to compare.

Who do you think believed in propaganda more
- US soldiers in Iraq who were told Saddam had a lot of WMD
- Iraqi people who were told Saddam was great

BTW, talking about propaganda of a democratic Ukraine ...


The parties banned are parties with ties to the Russian government. The Russians have been playing the same games with Ukraine that they have played with many countries around the world.
Zelensky says Ukrainian political parties linked to Russia to be banned

I think that the complete Twitter feed is well-balanced. Some are saying it's a fake video. Others are saying that Russian prisoners are being treated humanely and if they weren't, it would be a violation of the Geneva Convention. And others are horrified.

But the main point is that this threat is a scare tactic and compared to bombing civilians, threatening to cut someone's balls off is pretty tame. This isn't a video game being broadcast on Twitch. Real people are dying and there's only one person that is responsible

It looks fake to me. If Ukraine is committing war crimes of their own (which can't be 100% ruled out, but I tend to doubt it), they have done an excellent job thus far of hiding it. All the evidence we have of their treatment of POWs is mostly within the international standards, though there have been some images shown on social media (mostly posted by civilians and not the government) that were not cool with international law.

If this was real, this is a major slip in the messaging control on the part of the Ukrainians. It also smacks of the sensationalist kind of garbage that people promote in wartime to get people riled up. In WW I there were stories of Germans invading Belgium, throwing babies in the air, and catching them on their bayonets. In the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait there were stories of Iraqis taking babies out of incubators in Kuwaiti hospitals.

I won't buy this unless it is independently confirmed.

My partner did her usual dive on this dancohen3000 guy. He's associated with the MintPress which is a left wing news organization known for over the top stuff that makes the most liberal elected politician look conservative. They are basically extreme left wing conspiracy theories 24/7.

Here is an article about them from 2015
The mystery of MintPress News | MinnPost

They were very pro-Asaad then.

At best I would take them with a grain of salt.

This is probably the best hope for a speedy resolution:-



This is interesting, if Bortnikov gains power on the back of providing Putin with inaccurate intelligence, it could be a power play within Russia has contributed to starting the war.

Or perhaps Ukraine intelligence is just keen to widen the rift between Bortnikov and Putin.

Ukraine has definitely indicated no ceding of territory and no restrictions on military power or sovereignty. So currently no possible off-ramp for Putin which isn't a humiliating back down.

The fact we're hearing about it probably means it's fakes generated by the Ukrainians to keep Putin paranoid about things going on in his inner circle. If it were true, I would expect the Ukrainians to keep quiet about it until it happened.

On the other hand it may be a double fake. The Ukrainians know there is a plot against Putin brewing and they are trying to lay a false trail to keep the conspirators safe.
 
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Wars are chaotic and nasty business. Both sides will commit varying degrees of human rights violations. Not justifying it but, that’s the nature of wars if you study history. Some are by command from above, other are by human soldiers being humans. Some by civilians improvising in very chaotic environments: Here is a thread of claiming that some people in Ukraine are doing things that many people in the west consider human right’s abuse:


It’s really hard to judge from outside and the options might not be much better in a war zone.

Bonus: How KGB made the west Marxist:
 
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  • Informative
Reactions: SwedishAdvocate
Wars are chaotic and nasty business. Both sides will commit varying degrees of human rights violations. Not justifying it but, that’s the nature of wars if you study history. Some are by command from above, other are by human soldiers being humans. Some by civilians improvising in very chaotic environments: Here is a thread of claiming that some people in Ukraine are doing things that many people in the west consider human right’s abuse:


It’s really hard to judge from outside and the options might not be much better in a war zone.

When order breaks down (which happens in wartime) vigilantism goes up. About a week into the war I saw a video of somebody who had purportedly been caught looting in Kyiv or one of the other major cities that got bombed. It looks like they bound him to a lamppost with plastic wrap and then somebody pulled down his pants and whipped him with their belt.
 
When order breaks down (which happens in wartime) vigilantism goes up. About a week into the war I saw a video of somebody who had purportedly been caught looting in Kyiv or one of the other major cities that got bombed. It looks like they bound him to a lamppost with plastic wrap and then somebody pulled down his pants and whipped him with their belt.
Plenty of examples of that in the thread that I linked.
 
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Reactions: SwedishAdvocate
Plenty of examples of that in the thread that I linked.
War crimes are war crimes no matter who commits them. That said, the twitter account you linked to is a heavy duty pro-Russian anti-Ukrainian shill. Hard to figure it out, but I believe it's not a bot but there is a legit Spanish speaking person behind it, someone linked to extreme left movements there (communists). So probably a real hardcore Putin zealot not a paid one. He hardly posted anything before the beginning of the march then 100's of twits per day...
 
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Russians are starting to use Drones and the concern is that they might start to get their act together.

Ideally Ukraine needs good weapons for shooting down Russian Drones and lots of their own Drones.

Equipment and supplies is a vital part of closing the gap.

We also also starting to see Ukraine setting up mines and other explosive devices on roads and bridges.

More sanctions are also needed, no time for complacency, the job is half done.
 
An article on the demographics of Russia and the pools they are drawing troops from
Thread by @kamilkazani on Thread Reader App

It also concludes that the Russians appear to be sending their internal security forces into Ukraine. That's what SOBR is. If those guys are killed, it weakens the hold Putin has over the oligarchs.


Russians are starting to use Drones and the concern is that they might start to get their act together.

Ideally Ukraine needs good weapons for shooting down Russian Drones and lots of their own Drones.

Equipment and supplies is a vital part of closing the gap.

We also also starting to see Ukraine setting up mines and other explosive devices on roads and bridges.

More sanctions are also needed, no time for complacency, the job is half done.

The Ukrainians have taken down quite a number of drones in the last week or so. The pictures I've seen of downed drones appear to have bullet holes from small arms fire in them.

The thought occurred to me that the Russians may be digging in around Kyiv to wait out the mud season. Hoping that everything will go just fine once the mud is gone. The mud has definitely made things a lot worse, but the army has other problems. At the rate they are losing trucks, their entire truck force will be gone by the time the ground dries out.
 
Your distortion of what I said is "fascinating".

People in autocracies don't believe in propaganda because the difference in what the authorities say vs what they say in real life daily is large.
Except that premise is false, given people in autocracies with full media control have much less ways to verify information. The only "difference" they can see are things that might affect their daily life (like if propaganda says everyone is rich in their country, and they are living in poor conditions). By autocracies may do ok or even good in economy (like China does) and the population remains largely complacent and most people believe in government sources.
In US (and other democracies) - you can't lie too much about everyday life because of the same issues. Ofcourse didn't stop the previous President. BUT, when it comes to foreign affairs its very easy. There is no lived in experience to compare.
But the thing is there is no lived in experience for people that live in autocracies either when it comes to foreign affairs. They are the same.
Who do you think believed in propaganda more
- US soldiers in Iraq who were told Saddam had a lot of WMD
- Iraqi people who were told Saddam was great
That's a false equivalency though. The question should be:
Who do you think believed in propaganda more
- US people who were told Saddam had a lot of WMD
- Iraqi people who were told Americans were invading their country to take their oil (or more closely told something about American lifestyle, like how America is crime ridden).

If you wanted to compare the latter point:
- US people who were told Bush was great
- Iraqi people who were told Saddam was great

There are no hard surveys, but this report suggested a lot people, especially young Iraqis on the eve of the 2003 Iraq war may not necessarily have thought of Saddam as bad as the western media portrayed him, nor did they necessarily feel Americans were "liberators".

In democratic societies with free press however, press can present accounts that doubt the ruling party. For example see reporting from February 2003, before the war, where it points out the doubts in Bush's case:
CNN.com - Dissecting the case against Iraq - Feb. 3, 2003
There was press that doubted the Bush account fairly shortly after the invasion:
CNN.com - WMDs: Did Iraq ever have them? - Jul. 14, 2003
A year after the invasion, UN presented evidence the war was likely not justified:
CNN.com - Iraq war wasn't justified, U.N. weapons experts say - Mar 21, 2004

Compare that for example to the Tiananmen square incident in 1989. How many people in China believe in anything other than the Chinese government's portrayal of the events (if they even know about it at all)?
 
I hope we are not cheering for such people ...

vs the Russian fascist? Why yes I am..yes. Have you seen Grozny? Without the war the people of Ukraine have showed quite a remarkable willingness to take to the streets to achieve democracy. Democratic govts could have worked to move Ukraine further into democracy. Russia could have done this too (though of course it invaded instead). It would be as if USA invaded Canada. Yes, cheering on the Ukraines.