Russia/Ukraine conflict

[petit_bateau]

[UK] MPs take Russian election interference case to human rights court
Cross-party group says government [deliberately] failed to investigate reported attempts to meddle in UK elections

MPs take Russian election interference case to human rights court

Cross-party group says government failed to investigate reported attempts to meddle in UK elections

www.theguardian.com

 

[Xdama]

Emigrants almost always see their former country in a negative light.

Ultimately they left for a reason whether it be unhappy with their life there (financial, political), love (as in my wife’s case though god knows why lol). However IF they still have family there they probably have a better handle on current feeling of the populace than some external “expert” who isn’t there.
I agree the likelihood of a properly elected democratic government in Russia is very slim if not non existent. Certainly in most of us on here’s lifetime anyway. Corruption is part of “normal” life there and those who are the “have’s” will not relinquish their gains freely. Unfortunately for the common man the overthrow of the Russian Royal family hasn’t in the long run changed much at all. The riches have just been taken by a few “ordinary” people in their place.
In many ways not dissimilar to many western democracies where big business/ donator’s can turn an election. The sums spent on election campaigns in a lot of western countries are obscene by any stretch of the imagination. Money which could be spent on things such as health or welfare etc.
Just imagine if the billions spent on elections or arms were spent on social care or healthcare instead

 

[jbcarioca]

Ultimately they left for a reason whether it be unhappy with their life there (financial, political), love (as in my wife’s case though god knows why lol). However IF they still have family there they probably have a better handle on current feeling of the populace than some external “expert” who isn’t there.
I agree the likelihood of a properly elected democratic government in Russia is very slim if not non existent. Certainly in most of us on here’s lifetime anyway. Corruption is part of “normal” life there and those who are the “have’s” will not relinquish their gains freely. Unfortunately for the common man the overthrow of the Russian Royal family hasn’t in the long run changed much at all. The riches have just been taken by a few “ordinary” people in their place.
In many ways not dissimilar to many western democracies where big business/ donator’s can turn an election. The sums spent on election campaigns in a lot of western countries are obscene by any stretch of the imagination. Money which could be spent on things such as health or welfare etc.
Just imagine if the billions spent on elections or arms were spent on social care or healthcare instead

We are, factually, great apes. Anthropomorphism has limits but sometimes I do wonder.

 

[UncaNed]

Macron 'has a lot to answer for' as arms sales by EU to Putin released

EMMANUEL MACRON is being urged to answer for France's arms sales to Russia between 2014 and 2020 despite EU rules banning member states from providing Vladimir Putin with military supplies.

www.express.co.uk

Perhaps they sold them a bunch of faulty stuff that was bugged with tracking devices and such; a brilliant move both financially and tactically that lead to the current Russian quagmire in Ukraine??

Or is my imagination running wild and I'm a dreamer... but in either case whatever Russia bought doesn't exactly seem to be dong them much good at the moment.

 

[Xdama]

Perhaps they sold them a bunch of faulty stuff that was bugged with tracking devices and such; a brilliant move both financially and tactically that lead to the current Russian quagmire in Ukraine??

Or is my imagination running wild and I'm a dreamer... but in either case whatever Russia bought doesn't exactly seem to be dong them much good at the moment.

You can buy whatever tech you want but if the operator is untrained then it’s pretty useless lol.

 

[Xdama]

Tucker Carlson cites 25th Amendment, calls for Joe Biden to be REMOVED

Tucker Carlson has hit back at President Biden's recent gaffes on Russian President Vladimir Putin and the conflict in Ukraine by invoking the 25th amendment to remove the President from office.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Despite a couple of gaffes Biden has done pretty well so far imo.

‘Don’t eat, drink or touch anything’ in negotiations with Russia, negotiators warned

The warning comes as fresh peace talks begin in Turkey today

www.independent.co.uk

I reckon I’d be taking my own packed lunch too.

 

[[email protected]]

Strong analysis by Mercouris.

 

[wdolson]

Also looks like Russians are not using pallets, and trucks don't have those automatic lifts at the back. Instead all ammo is in boxes..

That's a nightmare to load and unload, has to be done by hand, box by box. Will take ages. Imagine the difference between that, and a pallet + pump cart + lift setup.

Pallet lifters are fine for someplace with concrete floors, but useless in the mud. The western countries do make use of containers and trucks with tilting beds for quick unload though. The Russian trucks are basically more modern WW II trucks.

There are genuine economic reasons why joininh NATO ought to result in a decline in defence spending:
- you get under the NATO nuclear umbrella (US/FR/UK) and because nuclear forces are cheaper than conventional forces (a very little understood fact) you benefit;
- access to better weapons/etc than in a go-it-alone scenario for a given level of R&D;
- access to doctrine, training, intelligence, C&C, etc etc;

Regarding current status this is about right imho

Thread by @HoansSolo on Thread Reader App

@HoansSolo: Short summary of the military situation in Ukraine (March 29): - 🇷🇺 forces are advancing in Donbas & in Mariupol - 🇷🇺 operations remain stalled on all other fronts - 🇷🇺 is deploying reinforcements around...…

threadreaderapp.com

Note that Ukraine is not showing any of the requisite capability to conduct the level of heavy armour manoeuvre warfare that would enable them to break up the solidifying front-line. This means that this is likely to turn into a war of attrition where (historically) the West has not had the strategic patience to outlast Putin's Russia (witness Georgia, 2024 Ukraine, Syria, Libya, Mali). Expect Russia to ask for ceasefires every time they want a breather to regroup for the next cycle. Vital to prevent Ukraine airforce from being attrited to point of in-effectiveness - this cannot be overemphasised. They will need the planes, the medium-range SAM systems, and the missiles for the planes.

It is important for Ukraine to try and retake Kherson before the lines fully solidify as only then can they truly try to relieve Maripol. Likeswise need to retake Hostomel area to resolve the thrust from N towards Kiev; and Brovary area to resolve thrust from E. Otherwise KIev remains threatened (a coup de main problem) and either thrust could result in a link-up with the southern thrust in a mega-encirclement. There is a lot of heavy fighting to go, and it would likely go easier if it could be done before the Russians have dug in and soludfied their front lines.

I agree that Ukraine is going to have trouble switching over to the offensive. They have played defense extremely well. Better than I thought they could initially. They also have a lot of people in arms now, probably more than the Russians. But they only have about 200,000 well trained troops and their equipment is antiquated.

Most of Ukraine's training has been in defense too.

 

[Skipdd]

Strong analysis by Mercouris.

Before I watch any of your videos, I now know to check the source first. And this was the first thing that popped up when I googled Alexander Mercouris:

Barrister who was disbarred after forging Lady Hale letter sued for £200,000 by ex-client - Legal Cheek

Alexander Mercouris has reinvented himself as a Russian commentator, his former client isn't happy about this

www.legalcheek.com

I must say, you have a knack for picking discredited sources. I won’t be giving Mr. Mercouris any clicks.

 

[Xdama]

Love this

 

[Tiger]

Strong analysis by Mercouris.

Word soup with no fact basis.

 

[bkp_duke]

That is what may seem to be true. Check out Yerevan, even Minsk, and the other ‘Stan’s. Well educated citizens of Russia are still leaving in large numbers, but the ones with access to far distance countries or nearby EU member or candidate have already gone.
Many people still do jobs in Russia from abroad, thanks to VPN, VoIP and pretty good internet access, even now.

That could change quickly, but probably will not.
Stopping that also would stop MIR the Russian ATM and payment system that links to UnionPay which then links to the ostensibly blocked MC and V networks.

Simplistic solutions do not really work. Remember that Russia still services foreign debt. Remember that Russian banks still have access to SWIFT, ostensibly to process payments for exports of oil and gas. Don’t believe everything you hear about imminent collapse.

Russia goes through periodic austerity, often self imposed. That does not necessarily produce revolution or regime change, although it sometimes does.

Two rules:
- Don’t necessarily believe that foreign observers know what is happening.
- Never imagine that an emigrant knows more about what is happening in their former country than anybody else. Emigrants almost always see their former country in a negative light. Their children and grandchildren often see the former country nostalgically.

Russia may be about to face regime change and may not be . Nobody knows. Nobody!
Whatever happens Russia will probably never have a stable democracy.

I have several employees in Russia. Most of what you say is true, but there are some fine details which are not.

SWIFT - while technically some banks still have access to it, in practice what we have seen is that many/most US banks have simply cut off payments to Russian accounts period. We got a few wires out early in the conflict back in late Feb, but those bank accounts are now blocked by our bank (BoA), even though they are not on the sanctioned list.

VPN - these are starting to be restricted. My employees are having to bounce around to stay ahead of the restrictions.

 

[EVNow]

I have several employees in Russia. Most of what you say is true, but there are some fine details which are not.

How do you pay them …. Unless you have local revenue.

 

[bkp_duke]

How do you pay them …. Unless you have local revenue.

Crypto, or a non-Russian bank. There are still some ways to get funds to them, but it is much harder.

 

[madodel]

Why Do So Many Russians Say They Support the War in Ukraine?
In a climate of wartime censorship, the mere expression of an unsanctioned thought begins to feel like a protest action.

"According to the Athena Project, a collective of sociologists and I.T. specialists who have been conducting their own polling in recent weeks, thirty-eight per cent of respondents who view news on television identified the main purpose of the intervention as safeguarding the populations of the Russian-backed quasi-republics in Donetsk and Luhansk. Twenty-one per cent of TV viewers didn’t know the goal of the operation."​

​

"On some level, the data likely reflect an impulse, whether born of fear or passivity, to repeat approved messages rather than articulate your own. “Surveys don’t show what people think, but what they are ready to say, how they are prepared to carry themselves in public,” Denis Volkov, the director of the Levada Center, the country’s premier independent polling and research organization, said. Even before the war, Russia was not the kind of place where you willy-nilly shared your political beliefs with strangers, let alone with those who called out of the blue. That tendency, forged in the Soviet period, only intensified in recent weeks, with new laws that criminalized “discrediting” the Russian military, spreading “fake news,” and making any mention in the press that the Russian invasion of Ukraine was war."​

 

[MC3OZ]

Note that Ukraine is not showing any of the requisite capability to conduct the level of heavy armour manoeuvre warfare that would enable them to break up the solidifying front-line. This means that this is likely to turn into a war of attrition where (historically) the West has not had the strategic patience to outlast Putin's Russia (witness Georgia, 2024 Ukraine, Syria, Libya, Mali).

I still think we are headed for a negotiated settlement, the Russian position is slowly softening over time,

I would not underestimate what Ukraine can do with Drones, including American switch-blades.

Aside from economic pressures the Russian military in terms of personnel and assets is slowly being depleted.

Ukraine has captured a lot of equipment and did a general mobilisation as few weeks back,.

I expect Ukraine to slowly be able to increase the number of their fighting forces using a combination of locals, Ukrainians returning home, and foreign fighters.

Ukraine doesn't need to win a quick victory, just keep grinding away.

Ukraine will be able to start planting crops in some areas and restart some economic activity as the war becomes more centred in the East/South.

Meantime the weapons are flowing in and that is unlikely to stop anytime soon.

For the US and NATO continuing to support Ukraine makes a lot of sense, it weakens Russia, and makes a threat from Russia to any NATO country more unlikely. In turn this also means China is less likely to pursue a war of aggression anytime soon.

 

[EVNow]

Why Do So Many Russians Say They Support the War in Ukraine?
In a climate of wartime censorship, the mere expression of an unsanctioned thought begins to feel like a protest action.

​

Comparison to Iraq war ...

Public Attitudes Toward the War in Iraq: 2003-2008

Ratings of how things are going in Iraq have improved over the past year, but a clear majority now say the initial decision to go to war was wrong.

www.pewresearch.org

 

[stopcrazypp]

Comparison to Iraq war ...

Public Attitudes Toward the War in Iraq: 2003-2008

Ratings of how things are going in Iraq have improved over the past year, but a clear majority now say the initial decision to go to war was wrong.

www.pewresearch.org

View attachment 787664

This was discussed in another post, but I would like to remind people that major difference is the mainstream media reported on the doubts on the justification for going to war in Iraq (even in the lead up, and certainly afterwards), and certainly people were not being imprisoned for calling it a war. Just some context in case people try to draw too many parallels.
Russia/Ukraine conflict

I should also note NATO declined to join the Iraq invasion and only provided training support at the request of the interim government:
NATO Mission Iraq

 

[MC3OZ]

This was discussed in another post, but I would like to remind people that major difference is the mainstream media reported on the doubts on the justification for going to war in Iraq (even in the lead up, and certainly afterwards), and certainly people were not being imprisoned for calling it a war. Just some context in case people try to draw too many parallels.
Russia/Ukraine conflict

I should also note NATO declined to join the Iraq invasion and only provided training support at the request of the interim government:
NATO Mission Iraq

Even if it did happen, a change in Russian public opinion, or the overthrow of Putin could take years.

I've been focused on the ground because that is where the war is won and lost.

Or negotiations, as that is the fastest path to a resolution.

Success in the war strengthens the Ukrainian bargaining position and should make Russia more willing to end it.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1508974935905026049

It is important Ukraine can break sieges like this, prevent new sieges and keep taking back territory.

This Izyum area seems most important over the next few days.

IMO any change of Russian public opinion is more likely to happen after the war is settled.

 

[Unclepaul]

Ultimately they left for a reason whether it be unhappy with their life there (financial, political), love (as in my wife’s case though god knows why lol). However IF they still have family there they probably have a better handle on current feeling of the populace than some external “expert” who isn’t there.
I agree the likelihood of a properly elected democratic government in Russia is very slim if not non existent. Certainly in most of us on here’s lifetime anyway. Corruption is part of “normal” life there and those who are the “have’s” will not relinquish their gains freely. Unfortunately for the common man the overthrow of the Russian Royal family hasn’t in the long run changed much at all. The riches have just been taken by a few “ordinary” people in their place.
In many ways not dissimilar to many western democracies where big business/ donator’s can turn an election. The sums spent on election campaigns in a lot of western countries are obscene by any stretch of the imagination. Money which could be spent on things such as health or welfare etc.
Just imagine if the billions spent on elections or arms were spent on social care or healthcare instead

The Russians that over threw the Royal Family offered little benefit. They simply put themselves in power. Little changed for the masses.