Up to a point Ukraine can continue a defensive-posture war. However the current trends contain a very real concern that the Russians will be able to attrite the Ukraine airforce to the point of being of negligible value. If you have ever studied multi-round conflicts you'll know that the end can come pretty quickly, these things are very non-linear in the final rounds* . If that occurs the dynamic in the land battle changes overnight. (The Russians would then switch to medium altitude bombing with a very high sortie rate, all over Ukraine, which MANPADS would be simply useless against. Ditto they could spot for their own artillery at leisure then, which they cannot do now - no amount of ATGWs or Switchblade-type munitions will solve being pounded by artillery 45km away). However hopeful I would like to be, I simply do not think the reverse might be possible, where the Ukraine could attrite the Russian air force off the battlefield.
I am by no means saying that Ukraine is performing badly. I'm simply taking the ra-ra stuff out and pointing out the problems that the Ukraine knows it has, which is why Ukraine keeps on asking both for aircraft, missiles for the aircraft (a real issue), and medium range SAM systems. The weaponry that Ukraine is receiving at present is necessary, but it is not sufficient. (We must also remember that Western leaders know this - by withholding such weaponry they are in effect pressurising Ukraine to negotiate a settlement now however unpalatable and untenable that might be. Moi, deeply cynical on these things).
*
Lanchester's laws - Wikipedia
Drones are already being used to spot for artillery in this war. Both sides are making use of them, though the Ukrainians are advertising it more. I think drones make a better artillery spotting platform than conventional aircraft.
The Ukrainian Air Force is still in the fight, but it's a tiny force for the job its trying to do. They started the war with only 80 Mig-29s. Two have been lost, but almost certainly quite a few are out of service for maintenance. Some may have been lost due to accidents.
I think the truth is the Russian air force is incapable of the job they are being asked to do. This is from early March, but it is, I think, and excellent analysis of what might be going on with the Russian air force
Is the Russian Air Force Actually Incapable of Complex Air Operations?
We have already seen clearly that the Russian army has failed because they never invested in the training necessary to make their forces work together. The Russians have been fronting about the military for many years. The few fights they have taken on have been small affairs with limited objectives against weak adversaries. Operations like Syria were done in small force numbers with elite troops.
The Russian air force is no different. Their aircrew training is poor and they are incapable for doing better.
"While the early VKS failure to establish air superiority could be explained by lack of early warning, coordination capacity and sufficient planning time, the continued pattern of activity suggests a more significant conclusion: that the VKS lacks the institutional capacity to plan, brief and fly complex air operations at scale. There is significant circumstantial evidence to support this, admittedly tentative, explanation."
The VKS is not holding back because of the Ukrainian air force, they are holding back because they are can't do any better.
Russia has not had to fight a large conventional army with determination to fight back since 1945. The last time they took on any force with any military capability and the willingness to fight back was in Afghanistan and that didn't turn out well. Ukraine is much better equipped and organized than Afghanistan with, if anything, more unified determination to fight back.
Even if Ukraine can't conduct a full scale offensive to push the Russians out, they can continue to bleed Russia dry. My partner was reading an economic analysis that made the point that the measures the Russians are doing to prop up the ruble and the economy is only a short term plaster on a gaping wound. They are trading future stability to patch the damage today. When the reserves run out the crash will be even bigger and there will be nothing left to stop it.
I'm sure the Ukrainians understand this too. The Russians ability to fight war is also degrading. Their supply situation is still terrible and getting worse. Their replacements are even poorer quality and their reserve equipment are little more than dregs from a scrapyard.
A long war favors Ukraine. Russia gets more unstable by the day.
I don't see where further degradation of the Ukrainian air force would lead to a catastrophe to Ukraine. It has not been a major factor from the start. On the other hand there are several paths that could lead to catastrophic failures for Russia.
Mark Hertling posted a few hours ago that his analysis from Feb 24 still stands.
www.france24.com
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