Russia/Ukraine conflict

[jbcarioca]

I have several employees in Russia. Most of what you say is true, but there are some fine details which are not.

SWIFT - while technically some banks still have access to it, in practice what we have seen is that many/most US banks have simply cut off payments to Russian accounts period. We got a few wires out early in the conflict back in late Feb, but those bank accounts are now blocked by our bank (BoA), even though they are not on the sanctioned list.

VPN - these are starting to be restricted. My employees are having to bounce around to stay ahead of the restrictions.

I am sure you are correct. My points are not with reference to US banks. The ones currently in use as of yesterday are European and Asian. Cyrus-based Russian businesses are essentially unimpeded, as are those who are dealing directly with the oil and gas industries, who are explicitly exempted from sanctions. Many people think there are EU-wide payment sanctions but there are not. Several EU members are still using SWIFT to make those payments. Some Russian banks are severely affected, Sberbank is classic since their non-Russia subsidiaries are now out of business.

Some other banks are essentially unaffected, including my client. All are quite hampered by the Central Bank of Russia loss of much IT staff. Almost all of them are themselves in dire straits because of IT staff shortages, if nothing else.

Regarding VPN. There are some workarounds that several banks that have longstanding contingency plans have already deployed. I mentioned a couple of those, vaguely. Details are not appropriate here partly because these may not be closely allied with the belligerents.

Everyone, no matter how clever, is affected by the interest rates, shortages of many imported products and the growing chaotic conditions.

Despite my comments about effective workarounds the fact remains clear that people who are members of minorities in Russia, primarily people who have grandfathered citizenship in another former SSR, are moving by land in large numbers. All emigration has become much harder with non-Rus senior staff being denied efforts to leave.

All this is eerily reminiscent of the 1985-1991 environment, in my opinion. The Putin government may stay, but that is no sure thing.
One thing is quite clear, I think. Russia is very unlikely to try democracy again. They did not enjoy the chaos before.

Ukraine is working as hard as possible to emulate Estonia, but with a huge industrial base. Russia hasn't much use for Estonia in that respect. The vast majority do sincerely think that Ukraine should be now as it has "always been" a part of Russia. Most Russian don't think this is a war of aggression. To them this is keeping a crucial part of Russia that the West is trying to steal.

Obviously I could be very wrong. I really hope I am.

 

[Tiger]

All war-opposing Russians should go on a silent Italian strike (like it probably was in the ussr times

 

[Artful Dodger]

So do the sanctions provide the opportunity for anyone with Russian payables to “extend the terms” indefinitely since most will be blocked from paying for or receiving goods? In this way sanctions have a retroactive element?

Yeah, haha, freezing Russia's foreign currency assets is like retroactively canceling past payments.

Budmo!

 

[jbcarioca]

So do the sanctions provide the opportunity for anyone with Russian payables to “extend the terms” indefinitely since most will be blocked from paying for or receiving goods? In this way sanctions have a retroactive element?

Candidly, there is some barter going on. The shipping companies also have some useful loopholes in that respect.

 

[scaesare]

How the Russians transport munitions

https://twitter.com/x/status/1508608029792608259

And then this sort of thing happens

https://twitter.com/x/status/1508886176043839492

That first twitter thread contains a link to

https://twitter.com/x/status/1508078628109697031

Which claims that's actually a Ukrainian truck....

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

...

That said , the IT crisis and import deficits are indeed real. There are distinct limits to the porosity of borders. The intelligentsia mostly is opposed to the war.

Borders are always porous. At the time of full economic sanctions to Serbia, everything was able to pass trough. It got more expensive.
It cost 20-100EUR in bribes to cross with the car and content, whatever one was smuggling, 1000 EUR for a truck, and _I think_ 10,000EUR for a train...

Joke from those times:

One of the Bulgarian customs officer was about to get married and his colleagues from the shift discuss the gift:
- Should we get him the newest Mercedes S-class?
- No man, that's too small of a gift
- How about a big house in downtown Sofia?
- Naaah, that's still too little...
- What about letting him keep all proceeds from the one shift?
- Jesus man, are you insane, that's way too much!!!

Funny thing is, it almost wasn't a joke...

 

[SwTslaGrl]

There are rumors today (on YouTube: eSysman SuperYachts) about several large yachts on the sanctions list that were de-registered from Isle of Man are now looking to register under Chinese Flags and insure in Hong Kong..

 

[EVNow]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1509205953572450306

https://twitter.com/x/status/1509207592702251021

 

[EVNow]

Is Biden government trying for a "regime change" in Pakistan ?

I wonder how much of this is because of Ukrain / Russia and how much is just "normal" meddling.

Would be sad if Imran is forced out.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1508758976653324288

https://twitter.com/x/status/1508755614364807173

 

[stopcrazypp]

Is Biden government trying for a "regime change" in Pakistan ?

I wonder how much of this is because of Ukrain / Russia and how much is just "normal" meddling.

Would be sad if Imran is forced out.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1508755614364807173

Given their long running behind the scenes support of Taliban (which has come back to bite them and part of which has to do with India support of Northern Alliance), I doubt the Russia issue is the sole or even primary factor. Pakistan has also been cozying with China too, being the first export customer of China's J10 fighter:
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44713/pakistans-first-chinese-made-j-10-fighters-arrive-amid-ongoing-modernization-plans
This is with the backdrop of the US long being Pakistan's largest source of military aid and also being Pakistan's general largest export market in terms of economy. Khan's policy has been trying to be on good terms with all the foreign powers, but in practicality it largely means moving away from the US and closer to Russia/China, which given the backdrop of the Ukraine war (and also China being rigid in their support of Russia) is a horrible time to be doing so.

However from analysis, the vote of no confidence in Pakistan has more to do a lot of the same domestic problems facing other countries (poor handling of pandemic, high inflation, a weak economy) and also him not being able to gather support from even his own allies (related to his choice of the minister of Punjab, the largest province in Pakistan). He's playing up the western inference angle (which what you post may be part of it) in hopes of getting domestic popular support (doesn't seem like much people are buying it though from how things are going). The same thing apparently was played up when foreign ambassadors wrote letters to Pakistan asking Pakistan to condemn Russia at the UN.
Why is Pakistani PM Imran Khan facing a no-confidence vote?
No-confidence motion in Pakistan parliament in bid to remove Khan

 

[Artful Dodger]

If you thought Toronto streetcars were the problem here is another FSD edge case:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1509253049440739332

Take your pick of punch lines:

1. What its like waiting for BC Hydro to come activate your mines
2. Not what Elon meant when he said Tesla might get into mining
3. When it absolutely, positively HAS to be there overnight
4. Has anybody got a MAGNET?!

I've got more if you need 'em...

Cheers!

 

[[email protected]]

And then there is Russell Brand...https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iCfkKQiTI-M

 

[JRP3]

And then there is Russell Brand...https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iCfkKQiTI-M

You should post a summary so people can decide if it's worth clicking. Because of your posting history I didn't bother.

 

[MC3OZ]

Ukraine does not have the anti-ship Neptune missiles some of you are saying that they have. The missiles have not been delivered yet, if they had been delivered they would have been used by now. The only thing that Ukraine has so far are the Transporter Erecter Launcher vehicles (TELs ) for the missiles, but not the missiles themselves.

At the moment the Russian Air force cannot do their job very well. But it is on a matter of time (attrition rate) before it is in an effectively unopposed situation where it could do the job.

To an extent (militarily) both sides are losing, and therefore it is a race to make the other side give up first.

What about these?

UK supplying starstreak anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine, defence minister Wallace tells BBC

Britain is supplying starstreak anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine, defence minister Ben Wallace told the BBC on Wednesday.

www.reuters.com

What Starstreak missiles, the weapons the UK could send to Ukraine, actually are

The UK is increasing its supply of weapons to Ukraine in response to Russia's 'indiscriminate and murderous' invasion

inews.co.uk

Fairly strong evidence that some have been delivered,

Starstreak’s lightweight 14kg missile has a claimed operational range of more than 7km, with Thales stating that the precision weapons has “low collateral damage”.

It is also reportedly the fastest short-range surface-to-air system in the world, with a peak velocity above Mach 3.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1509205953572450306

https://twitter.com/x/status/1509207592702251021

”.../ the only independent pollster in Russia /...”

Ok… Now why do I seriously doubt that any kind of pollster is able to accurately poll opinions of Russians inside Russia at this moment? How would anyone answering questions like these be able to 100% know for sure that Putin and his minions isn’t listening in?...

I have absolutely no insight what so ever into Russia but found this video interesting. This channel – 1420 – was posted in this thread a while back. Here's a segment in which everyone is blurred and has a distorted voice. Allegedly the answers in this one differs significantly from the others. Also: In previous videos where people where showing their faces, only about 20% of the people who where asked questions answered. That to me, says something about what the real opinion could actually be...

 

[EVNow]

Take your pick of punch lines:

1. What its like waiting for BC Hydro to come activate your mines
2. Not what Elon meant when he said Tesla might get into mining
3. When it absolutely, positively HAS to be there overnight
4. Has anybody got a MAGNET?!

I've got more if you need 'em...

Cheers!

I like that speed bump.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

Up to a point Ukraine can continue a defensive-posture war. However the current trends contain a very real concern that the Russians will be able to attrite the Ukraine airforce to the point of being of negligible value. If you have ever studied multi-round conflicts you'll know that the end can come pretty quickly, these things are very non-linear in the final rounds* . If that occurs the dynamic in the land battle changes overnight. (The Russians would then switch to medium altitude bombing with a very high sortie rate, all over Ukraine, which MANPADS would be simply useless against. Ditto they could spot for their own artillery at leisure then, which they cannot do now - no amount of ATGWs or Switchblade-type munitions will solve being pounded by artillery 45km away). However hopeful I would like to be, I simply do not think the reverse might be possible, where the Ukraine could attrite the Russian air force off the battlefield.

I am by no means saying that Ukraine is performing badly. I'm simply taking the ra-ra stuff out and pointing out the problems that the Ukraine knows it has, which is why Ukraine keeps on asking both for aircraft, missiles for the aircraft (a real issue), and medium range SAM systems. The weaponry that Ukraine is receiving at present is necessary, but it is not sufficient. (We must also remember that Western leaders know this - by withholding such weaponry they are in effect pressurising Ukraine to negotiate a settlement now however unpalatable and untenable that might be. Moi, deeply cynical on these things).

* Lanchester's laws - Wikipedia

.../ I also think there are multiple reasons for withholding the planes, and having both sides inclined to negotiate is one.

This assumes that Putin and his minions would have any interest what so ever in negotiating. Have we this far seen anything – anything at all – that would indicate that this would even be a remote possibility?

 

[wdolson]

I am sure you are correct. My points are not with reference to US banks. The ones currently in use as of yesterday are European and Asian. Cyrus-based Russian businesses are essentially unimpeded, as are those who are dealing directly with the oil and gas industries, who are explicitly exempted from sanctions. Many people think there are EU-wide payment sanctions but there are not. Several EU members are still using SWIFT to make those payments. Some Russian banks are severely affected, Sberbank is classic since their non-Russia subsidiaries are now out of business.

Some other banks are essentially unaffected, including my client. All are quite hampered by the Central Bank of Russia loss of much IT staff. Almost all of them are themselves in dire straits because of IT staff shortages, if nothing else.

Regarding VPN. There are some workarounds that several banks that have longstanding contingency plans have already deployed. I mentioned a couple of those, vaguely. Details are not appropriate here partly because these may not be closely allied with the belligerents.

Everyone, no matter how clever, is affected by the interest rates, shortages of many imported products and the growing chaotic conditions.

Despite my comments about effective workarounds the fact remains clear that people who are members of minorities in Russia, primarily people who have grandfathered citizenship in another former SSR, are moving by land in large numbers. All emigration has become much harder with non-Rus senior staff being denied efforts to leave.

All this is eerily reminiscent of the 1985-1991 environment, in my opinion. The Putin government may stay, but that is no sure thing.
One thing is quite clear, I think. Russia is very unlikely to try democracy again. They did not enjoy the chaos before.

Ukraine is working as hard as possible to emulate Estonia, but with a huge industrial base. Russia hasn't much use for Estonia in that respect. The vast majority do sincerely think that Ukraine should be now as it has "always been" a part of Russia. Most Russian don't think this is a war of aggression. To them this is keeping a crucial part of Russia that the West is trying to steal.

Obviously I could be very wrong. I really hope I am.

Those in Russia who lived through the chaos of the 90s have a bad association with democracy. Losing a war is always chaotic, the US retreat from Afghanistan was one of the more orderly ends. Russia had the double whammy of the government changing and the entire empire breaking up as the cold war ended.

George HW Bush had a plan to send financial aid to the Russians and help them to chart the path to a stable democracy, but he couldn't get support in Congress. Very short sighted on their part.

The Marshall Plan was a very expensive aid package, but it stabilized the US's former enemies and turned them into allies. History has shown that this one off was not really out of any sort of kindness of heart, but a cold calculation that these countries were needed as allies against the USSR in the cold war.

Congress seems to have a history of being perfectly willing to spill tons of treasure on weapons of war, but are not really willing to spend even a fraction of that on securing the peace, unless it's for the next war. IMO that's a major flaw in US foreign policy.

Russia might be in some position to try democracy again someday, but I too doubt it will be anytime soon. Too many people with PTSD from the last time.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

Robin Horsfall on LinkedIn: 'Not an attempt to achieve peace' There should be absolutely no doubt… | 333 comments

'Not an attempt to achieve peace' There should be absolutely no doubt that the withdrawal of the Russian army from Kyiv is a tactical move. It is not part of… | 333 comments on LinkedIn

www.linkedin.com

I’d say this analysis of the current situation around Kyiv is a pretty fair assumption.

".../ Nothing, absolutely nothing should be believed. The whole negotiation process for Putin is about leverage and trickery it is not led by a desire for peace. /...

Exactly... The Kremlin lies about everything...

 

[MC3OZ]

This assumes that Putin and his minions would have any interest what so ever in negotiating. Have we this far seen anything – anything at all – that would indicate that this would even be a remote possibility?

I must admit I have my doubts.

If either side let the other side have Crimea, Donbas and Luhansk a deal could be done.

Crimea in particular seems like a big sticking point, especially for Russia..

But the costs of the war are mounting for both sides, if it stays limited to a conventional war, the most likely outcome is Ukraine wins.
All indications so far are Russia intends to fight a conventional war, but that might change.
If Russia does use tactical nukes or chemical weapons, I think honour dictates NATO should step in, NATO needs to make that very clear.

I would like to see some deal for Ukraine to get the planes.
If not the planes a longer range air defence system.

For the actual war on the ground, Ukraine seems to be taking more territory than Russia at present, Russia seems to be suffering heavier military losses.

For Ukraine civilian, property, infrastructure and financial losses are mounting.

My take is that for Ukraine Civilian and Military losses are important, property, infrastructure and financial losses can and should be fixed after the war.

Sanctions should be biting and a lot of the sanction exceptions should be removed.