SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
Fair enough, but it could have been much, much worse. Imagine if the Vatican had acted like Ukraine during WWII
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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
Fair enough, but it could have been much, much worse. Imagine if the Vatican had acted like Ukraine during WWII
I admit that I'm no fan of the Catholic Church as an organization. That said...John Paul DID deal with a cold war between the USSR and the West. He did so with personal courage and as pope with groundbreaking use of the vatican to assist in the overthrow of the communists polish government. He did this by allowing the vatican priests to serve as an extension of the CIA and Polish resistance efforts and this was vital for the Solidarity movement. It was courageous and innovative. It is so rare that any pope is innovative and courageous that it stands out. He had plenty of faults but not this one. There's a reason he was a target of assignation by the KGB.
Psychopaths don't come to power unless there is a population primed to follow them. There are plenty of psychopaths in prison, dead, or living lives in the shadows who are unable to tap into a zeitgeist and take power. My partner's former brother-in-law was one of them. His one trick was an ability to con a certain type of old woman. He had his grandmother conned until she died, then found another for a while until she or her family figured him out.
When his mother died, he blew his inheritance playing his con until the money ran out and he hung himself in a park in the Bay Area on the 5th anniversary of his mother's death. My partner's ex is a pretty sensitive guy and was a little thrown by this, but once he got over the initial shock his attitude was "good riddance".
Another American con man who figured out how to tap into the zeitgeist and gain power is Donald Trump. He mined a vein of dissatisfaction and resentment that was already there and rode it to the White House. That population of disgruntled Americans he was able to coalesce into a political faction got that way in a mix of real factors (declining fortunes of that population as globalization and the browning of America happens) and propaganda from the media they consume. I'm not making excuses for them, I'm trying to explain where their headspaces are.
In Russia the same thing happened. The population isn't brainwashed from 20 years of Putin's propaganda. The core of Putin's support are Gen Xers and older who are old enough to remember the USSR. This population has been primed for 80 years. Except for about 10 years in the 90s when there was no anti-westren propaganda, this population has spent their entire lives in a soup of anti-western propaganda.
They were primed when Putin came to power. The people who believe Putin the least are those under 40 who don't remember the USSR and have traveled outside Russia. These people tend to have a college education, technical skills (can use VPNs), and know what the world outside Putin's propaganda bubble is like. They also weren't primed before Putin came to power with decades of Soviet propaganda.
You also have to look at Russian history over the last 40 years too. It's a different path from western countries. In the last decade of the USSR the softening of communism allowed western products to enter Russia. Westerners would come to Russia with suitcases full of blue jeans and trade them for all sorts of things. Products like Pepsi and other western brands started appearing on store shelves in Russia.
The 80s was a good decade for the Russian people compared to the previous 60. Then the USSR broke up, the Soviet Republics all left. In Ukraine the vote to leave had a 92% yes vote
1991 Ukrainian independence referendum - Wikipedia
After the USSR fell apart, George HW Bush wanted something like a Marshall Plan to help Russia transition to an open economy, but Congress wouldn't approve it. As a result Russia languished for most of the decade. It was a very tough time in Russia.
Quite a few people who remembered the 80s and lived through the 90s came to the conclusion that communism was better than this democracy thing. Russia has a long history of strongman leaders. The Tsars were among the strongest monarchs in Europe and the Soviet Premieres had a lot of power too. Yeltsin was seen as weak and frail. When Putin came to power he did a lot of photo shoots of him doing very "manly" things to demonstrate he was strong and healthy and he would make Russia strong and healthy too.
Outside Russia we see how much he and his cronies have stolen from Russia. It could be a far more powerful economy today if so much of the country's wealth wasn't stolen. But like a good psychopathic leader, Putin has made sure some goodies have percolated down to the masses. At least those living in the cities. The people living in rural villages are still lucky to have electricity.
According to Kamil Galeev, in the part of Russia populated by the white Russians the population breaks down into 20/60/20. 20% are sophisticates with passports who have been fleeing the country since the war started. 20% are dirt poor and barely scrape by. The 60% in the middle had nothing during the cold war. They lived in cheap Soviet era apartment buildings and lived grim lives with only vodka to relieve the pain. They got a little in the 80s, then lost it in the 90s.
Under Putin that 60% group's fortunes changed. They made enough to buy a cheap car and a TV and compared to 30 years ago or the Soviet era they are living the good life. They credit Putin for this and support him. They figure that if Putin invaded Ukraine, he must have had a good reason for it. Most of this population doesn't have access to foreign news, so they just accept what the state run media tells them. They know at least some of it is lies, but the largely don't care as long as they keep their car and TV.
Putin has stayed in power because this population likes him.
I'm not making excuses for Putin or Russia. I'm trying to do what any half competent intelligence analyst tries to do, get into the enemy's head and understand their perspective. My personal opinion is that Russia is wrong and NATO's expansion probably was a good thing overall. I'm trying to explain why Russia sees this differently than the west does.
Seems Russia has a new submarine, to keep Moskva company:
Last night my partner was reading this reports and some people who were ex-intelligence agents said that when something like that happens, you listen to the comms chatter. Even if the ship sinks quickly, there is usually a lot of comms chatter between other ships in the area or with shore bases about it and there was none of that.
Either the Russians have suddenly learned a lot of comms discipline, something odd happened with the comms and the ship sank, or the ship didn't get hit.
There are differences between Crimea and the USSR. Crimea was part of Russia until the 1930s. Stalin moved it to Ukraine for administrative purposes because of the land bridge with Ukraine. When Ukraine left the USSR, they took Crimea with them. When Ukraine voted to leave the USSR, Crimea did have a majority "Yes" vote, but it was only 54% with 40% of eligible voters not voting.
Alaska was sold to the US by Russia. Nobody took it away from Russia. The Russians were among the European powers to have a claim on the west coast of Canada and parts of the US west coast. Most of the Russian names are gone, though California has the Russian River. Various things in the PNW and BC are named by explorers from a number of countries which is how we get the Strait of Juan de Fuca, Vancouver (both in BC and WA), Mt Hood, Rainier, etc. Washington has Clark and Lewis counties, though not many things named by that exploration team remain.
I'm not trying to give the Russians or Putin excuses for anything, I'm trying to explain what their mindset is. The invasion of Ukraine was dead wrong and I get a bit of Schadenfreude when reading about Russian losses. Russia deserves to lose this war and I hope it results in the Russian Federation breaking up. But that's my personal feelings.
I also want to understand not just why Putin did this, but why the Russian people show support for the war. The support is far from universal. In fact a majority of Russians may oppose it, but most of those people are being quiet because it's too dangerous to speak up. But there are clearly people who actually are in favor of the war.
NATO has been careful not to be aggressive with the USSR and Russia. Living in countries that are mostly NATO countries, we know our governments don't want to get into a war with Russia and are doing everything possible to support Ukraine while also staying out of the war too. It's something that is so deeply ingrained into the cultures of European and North American countries that nobody even thinks about it.
But Russia is different. The sophisticated Russians who travel in Europe and elsewhere know the western attitudes about the possibility of war with Russia. But they are a minority within Russia.
On a smaller scale US politicians (on the right) trot out the communism=socialism meme to trigger their followers to hate more liberal politicians. It works in the US, but not in Europe because that was a strong meme in the US during the cold war. It has no effect on Americans born too late to remember the cold war, but it's a button that politicians can push to motivate older Americans who lean right.
There has been a lot of talk about how the Russians use "nazi" for everyone they don't like. The term doesn't mean the same thing in Russia that it means in the west. In the west Nazi refers to a particular political ideology that was only strong for about 2 1/2 decades in Germany from the 20s to 1945. It's thrown around in other ways too (Godwin's Law), but it's still a somewhat narrow cast term compared to Russia.
In Russia "nazi" means a western aggressor of any kind. We see calling Zalensky a nazi as nuts. Same thing with calling Israelis nazis. But in Russian culture it makes sense because the government is trying to trigger the western aggressor meme in the public. Basically anybody who is anti-Russian is a nazi in the Russian meme space.
You can argue about why that's wrong (and it is inaccurate, just like calling someone a nazi in an online discussion about knitting techniques is inaccurate), but what's more important is what buttons that kind of language pushes in the Russian population. It probably falls on deaf ears among those born too late to remember the USSR just like communism and socialism means something else to the younger generations in the US, but it resonates with an older demographic that supports Putin already. It energizes them and keeps up their support.
Good points, we hope this will change and support for the war will wane the longer it drags on, as sanctions bite, and the reality of Russian losses becomes more apparent.
We don't know for certain that the support level will change, or when it will drop below a critical number.
We also don't know Putin's end game, or how much longer he will live. The war ending because Putin died of natural cases is entirely possible.
Sadly a negotiated settlement looks further away that it ever has been, Putin would rather keep fighting than cede captured territory back to Ukraine, and in some ways his best chance of staying in power is to keep fighting, Ukraine wants to get all of its territory back, including Crimea.
Like you I think Ukraine can eventually drive Russia out of all of it territory, but more than anything Ukraine will need a lot of economic support during the war and for sometime after the war ends. It is very worthwhile for NATO, the EU and others to give Ukraine all of the support it needs for as long as it takes.
IMO weakening Russia and preventing the success of this campaign will have a positive ripple effect, the influence of Russia in the Middle East, and Africa should diminish, global support for democracy should increase. China will be far less inclined to be overly aggressive, yes the price is high particularly for the Ukrainians, but for all of us, it is worth it, and there is no other good option.
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The Soviet Union transferred control of Crimea from Russia to the Soviet Ukraine in 1954.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Monday is Victory Day. Russia is really pushing in the east it seems. Is the plan to get into this steel works, plant a flag, and declare "victory"?
If that's the case I assume you simply evacuate civilian/military and pull out of Mariupol completely? That allows Russia their "victory" in what is already a 90% Russian region, their (temporary) bridge to Crimea, and everyone comes to the table for talks.
Meanwhile Ukraine has the region fully surrounded and is at little risk of a replay. The oligarchs figure out how to murder Putin. The EU brings in Ukraine. Eventually Ukraine takes back Crimea around 2025.
If that's the case I assume you simply evacuate civilian/military and pull out of Mariupol completely? That allows Russia their "victory" in what is already a 90% Russian region, their (temporary) bridge to Crimea, and everyone comes to the table for talks.
Meanwhile Ukraine has the region fully surrounded and is at little risk of a replay. The oligarchs figure out how to murder Putin. The EU brings in Ukraine. Eventually Ukraine takes back Crimea around 2025.
We don't know what would get everyone to the table..
But Ukraine has consistently said the least they will accept to begin talks is a return to the boarders before the invasion.
If Ukraine wants to retake Crimea or wants to press hard for a good deal, if they can see some momentum on the battlefield, now isn't a bad time to do that.
In terms of a negotiated settlement, the sides seem further apart now than they were in March.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
What an absolutely crazy moment in time. We're watching likely the richest man in the world implode in front of our eyes and take potentially bring down Russia with him.
I'm watching the Fed this week and all this talk of inflation. It's so clearly just covid supply chain disruptions and expensive oil. The minute Putin pulls back.....Brent crude is going to $50. And from there very rapidly to $30 as the rest of the world picks back up production and demand stays down/flat.
The scramble to pump oil before it's too late begins when this "military action" comes to an end. Such a fitting end to the Putin Era. When his disease-ridden hand put down the gun, it all ends for him.
And also.....how the hell is Putin only 69? Crazy. His most recent videos make it clear he's dying, or at a minimum really F'ed.
I'm watching the Fed this week and all this talk of inflation. It's so clearly just covid supply chain disruptions and expensive oil. The minute Putin pulls back.....Brent crude is going to $50. And from there very rapidly to $30 as the rest of the world picks back up production and demand stays down/flat.
The scramble to pump oil before it's too late begins when this "military action" comes to an end. Such a fitting end to the Putin Era. When his disease-ridden hand put down the gun, it all ends for him.
And also.....how the hell is Putin only 69? Crazy. His most recent videos make it clear he's dying, or at a minimum really F'ed.
Tiger
Active Member
Wonder what's going to be the next sabotage ...
The sabotage going on in Russia is a sign that there are multiple people who are not happy with the current regime and/or the war. The Russian authorities might be arresting the responsible people and keeping it quiet, but I haven't seen anything that the people who did the acts were caught.
There are rumors and some circumstantial evidence that Putin may be dying of cancer.
I think there are a lot of long term benefits to help Ukraine rebuild from this war. It will not only bolster an emerging democracy, but make a fierce western ally on Russia's doorstep. And if Ukraine becomes a manufacturing center, which it can with the right investment, then that works economically against China. Ukraine would have easy rail links to markets in Europe and companies exporting manufacturing would be dealing with a stable democracy rather than an authoritarian state that could just take away all their assets in the country without warning.
Unfortunately legislatures can be very short sighted about that sort of thing. The Marshall Plan only happened to counter the USSR.
If the west thinks Russia is just a wounded animal after this, the rebuilding scenario for Ukraine might happen. If Russia is disintegrating as a country, it may not.
Typo, I meant a difference between Crimea and Alaska, but I also misremembered when the transfer of Crimea was made, and I guess it was actually Khrushchev. In any case it was basically an administrative transfer of a territory that was mostly ethnically Russian.
Writing when I wasn't fully awake...
69 is oldish for a Russian man. The life expectancy for a male in 2019 was 69 and it dropped to 66 in 2020. The female life expectancy was 78 and 76 for those two years. By comparison the US female life expectancy is in the 80-81 range and men are 75-76. And the US is low for developed countries.
I know some Russian immigrants. Alcoholism is so rampant among Russian men that it's just endemic. One came to a revelation when she learned about the definition of alcoholism. She said she realized almost all Russian men were alcoholic.
My partner's law partner is an American married to a Russian immigrant. She said she caught a lot of flak for not marrying a Russian, but among her immediate family and her cousins, she's the only one who has stayed married. Most of her generation in her family have had some pretty severe domestic violence issues (frequently alcohol related), her husband has never touched her in anger, nor come close to it.
This is paywalled. Opinion piece in the NYT by Thomas Friedman. I agree with his sentiments, though not 100% sure I’d agree with where he draws the lines. Pasting a snippet below which conveys the essence of his argument.
“Vladimir Putin surely has no illusions about how much the U.S. and NATO are arming Ukraine with material and intelligence, but when American officials start to brag in public about playing a role in killing Russian generals and sinking the Russian flagship, killing many sailors, we could be creating an opening for Putin to respond in ways that could dangerously widen this conflict — and drag the U.S. in deeper than it wants to be.”
“My bottom line echoes my top line — and I can’t underscore it enough: We need to stick as tightly as possible to our original limited and clearly defined aim of helping Ukraine expel Russian forces as much as possible or negotiate for their withdrawal whenever Ukraine’s leaders feel the time is right.
But we are dealing with some incredibly unstable elements, particularly a politically wounded Putin. Boasting about killing his generals and sinking his ships, or falling in love with Ukraine in ways that will get us enmeshed there forever, is the height of folly.”
The War Is Getting More Dangerous for America, and Biden Knows It
www.nytimes.com
“Vladimir Putin surely has no illusions about how much the U.S. and NATO are arming Ukraine with material and intelligence, but when American officials start to brag in public about playing a role in killing Russian generals and sinking the Russian flagship, killing many sailors, we could be creating an opening for Putin to respond in ways that could dangerously widen this conflict — and drag the U.S. in deeper than it wants to be.”
“My bottom line echoes my top line — and I can’t underscore it enough: We need to stick as tightly as possible to our original limited and clearly defined aim of helping Ukraine expel Russian forces as much as possible or negotiate for their withdrawal whenever Ukraine’s leaders feel the time is right.
But we are dealing with some incredibly unstable elements, particularly a politically wounded Putin. Boasting about killing his generals and sinking his ships, or falling in love with Ukraine in ways that will get us enmeshed there forever, is the height of folly.”
The War Is Getting More Dangerous for America, and Biden Knows It
Opinion | The War Is Getting More Dangerous for America, and Biden Knows It (Published 2022)
Leaks by U.S. officials suggest we are no longer in an indirect war with Russia but rather are edging toward a direct one.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
There is an organization called RuFi (russians in finland, or sg like that) that has spread Russian propaganda in Finland. Now they are organizing some pro-russia car convoy on sunday, eve of victory day.
But their domain had expired, and they didn't reserve it again in time. Have a look at (NSFW)
www.rufi.fi
But their domain had expired, and they didn't reserve it again in time. Have a look at (NSFW)
www.rufi.fi
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Hey, thanks for not mentioning NSFW.There is an organization called RuFi (russians in finland, or sg like that) that has spread Russian propaganda in Finland. Now they are organizing some pro-russia car convoy on sunday, eve of victory day.
But somebody forgot to reserve their internet domain. Have a look at
www.rufi.fi
sorry, didn't realise it wasn't..Hey, thanks for not mentioning NSFW.
Do they drive pickup trucks with Putin flags on them?There is an organization called RuFi (russians in finland, or sg like that) that has spread Russian propaganda in Finland. Now they are organizing some pro-russia car convoy on sunday, eve of victory day.
But their domain had expired, and they didn't reserve it again in time. Have a look at (NSFW)
www.rufi.fi
petit_bateau
Active Member
I'm sorry but I'm on a phone and cannot post links.
Looks like Russia has been trying to turn snake Island into a substitute AA site to replace the sunk Moskva. Looks like Ukr has completely nixed that attempt. So far I think the UKr have sunk two FPBs and one LCT as well as destroying all the major hardware the Russians had landed on the island.
No real update on that Russian frigate that may have been hit. That is two of that class of frigate that have been rumoured to have been damaged . Hard to be sure .
Ukr has lost Popasna.
The Russian thrust southwards through Izim to try to encircle the Ukr forces in the Donbass is itself coming under increasing pressure in its rear. Much more of this and it will be questionable who is encircling whom.
Will the real Putin show himself in Moscow ? How will he be ?
Looks like Russia has been trying to turn snake Island into a substitute AA site to replace the sunk Moskva. Looks like Ukr has completely nixed that attempt. So far I think the UKr have sunk two FPBs and one LCT as well as destroying all the major hardware the Russians had landed on the island.
No real update on that Russian frigate that may have been hit. That is two of that class of frigate that have been rumoured to have been damaged . Hard to be sure .
Ukr has lost Popasna.
The Russian thrust southwards through Izim to try to encircle the Ukr forces in the Donbass is itself coming under increasing pressure in its rear. Much more of this and it will be questionable who is encircling whom.
Will the real Putin show himself in Moscow ? How will he be ?
