Russia/Ukraine conflict

[petit_bateau]

I have read, but have not been able to find evidence to support it, that after the fall of Warsaw Pact / Comecon / USSR the Eastern European nations - especially Poland - pointed out that if they were not allowed to join NATO then they would have no choice except to develop their own indigenous nuclear weapons as a deterrent against future Russian coercion.

As I said hard evidence behind this is not easy to find, but it is a logical and defensible analysis which I personally would agree with. And since the outcome was that they did join NATO and thereby have been able to shelter under the NATO nuclear umbrella, and did not develop their own nuclear capability, then it is at least a plausible explanation.

Subsequent events, most obviously what did happen in Libya and Iraq, have made it all the more likely that other nations will face the same issue. With North Korea and Iran the situation is obvious (ditto Israel, India, Pakistan). Now things become more pressing for Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and quite possibly also Saudi Arabia and in due course Ukraine.

There is a remorseless logic to the nuclear analysis. Either one needs to be firmly under someone else umbrella, or hard to get at except through someone else (Switzerland), or one needs ones own umbrella. Security through obscurity is not an option if one is sitting on strategically important real estate.

 

[FlatSix911]

Russia Just Lost Its Most Advanced Operational Tank In Ukraine

The first confirmed loss of Russia's most advanced operational tank is another blow to the Russian Army's eroded image.

www.thedrive.com

"The war in Ukraine has had its fair share of embarrassments for the Kremlin. From the sinking of the Slava class cruiser Moskva in April to the infamous 40-mile-long Russian military convoy holdup near Kyiv seen earlier in the conflict, Moscow has had little to cheer about in terms of projecting competent military strength.

The latest hit comes via visual evidence that a Russian T-90M Proryv-3 (Breakthrough-3) — a modern and rare main battle tank — has been destroyed on the battlefield by Ukrainian forces. Shared on Twitter by The Kyiv Independent’s defense reporter Illia Ponomarenko, the image, dated May 4, shows what appears to be the remnants of a T-90M tank, still smoldering after a direct hit somewhere within Ukraine’s northeastern Kharkiv Oblast. Andriy Tsaplienko is seen reporting in the foreground."

 

[SmokyPeat]

I thought you were asking about Catholic teaching.

I missed the original story so I looked it up. He said that NATO's eastward movement contributed to the Russian invasion. There is a reasonable analysis supporting that.

Russia is very paranoid about protecting it's territory and always has been. The older Russians grew up steeped in the meme that the United States wanted to take over Russia. For people who live outside the Russian bubble, it's patently ridiculous, but you have to understand where people are, not just tell them they are being silly.

When the USSR broke up the US and other NATO members agreed NATO would not spread eastward into the former Warsaw Pact countries. But the members of those eastern countries had other ideas and constantly begged NATO to join. The western democracies had changes of administrations and the the new leaders forgot either conveniently or for some other reason and the begging got answered.

This could be a situation where two sides each seeing a threat from the other, they each upped the ante until we got here. So inadvertently, NATO's eastern expansion may have contributed to Putin and Russia's paranoia which contributed to the plan to rebuild the Russian Empire to defend Mother Russia.

The eastern European countries that were begging to join NATO also had valid historical reasons. They were conquered twice in the last ~80 years and wanted some assurances that wouldn't happen again. NATO membership gives them the best chance of that.

There are many players in this situation who have decades and even centuries of pain they are dealing with, on both sides. Cultural PTSD.

I respectfully disagree. This commentary by Quin Hillyer is a good summation of my feeling.

The pope’s verbal stumble is providing cover for Putin’s evil

The sainted Pope John Paul II, almost at the cost of his own life, spoke with great moral clarity and courage against Russian hegemonic aims. Pope Francis, unfortunately, lacks the clarity to speak in such a manner. Unfortunately, it means he is currently giving aid and comfort to an immoral…

www-washingtonexaminer-com.cdn.ampproject.org

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

.../ He said that NATO's eastward movement contributed to the Russian invasion. There is a reasonable analysis supporting that.

Russia is very paranoid about protecting it's territory and always has been. The older Russians grew up steeped in the meme that the United States wanted to take over Russia. For people who live outside the Russian bubble, it's patently ridiculous, but you have to understand where people are, not just tell them they are being silly.

When the USSR broke up the US and other NATO members agreed NATO would not spread eastward into the former Warsaw Pact countries. But the members of those eastern countries had other ideas and constantly begged NATO to join. The western democracies had changes of administrations and the the new leaders forgot either conveniently or for some other reason and the begging got answered.

This could be a situation where two sides each seeing a threat from the other, they each upped the ante until we got here. So inadvertently, NATO's eastern expansion may have contributed to Putin and Russia's paranoia which contributed to the plan to rebuild the Russian Empire to defend Mother Russia.

The eastern European countries that were begging to join NATO also had valid historical reasons. They were conquered twice in the last ~80 years and wanted some assurances that wouldn't happen again. NATO membership gives them the best chance of that.

There are many players in this situation who have decades and even centuries of pain they are dealing with, on both sides. Cultural PTSD.

You keep writing a variation of this throughout this thread...

As I see it you've got the causation of all of this all wrong!

I don't think this is at all the way things went: ”…/ NATO’s eastern expansion may have contributed to Putin and Russia's paranoia which contributed to the plan to rebuild the Russian Empire to defend Mother Russia. /…”

If Russia was a Democracy today – then why would Russia see the west as an enemy?

What happened during the dissolution of the of the Soviet Union was that for a brief moment in time the Psychopaths that previously had controlled Russia/USSR lost control. But once Putin had ’asserted’ himself they were back.

As others have stated a numerous of times: Ukraine was and is a threat to the Psychopaths in Russia and Belarus since Ukraine was beginning to show the population inside Russia that another world – Democracy – was possible and also far superior. That became an existential threat to the Psychopaths in Russia and Belarus. In a Democracy psychopaths run a very clear risk of loosing power. Before the invasion Putin had also committed numerous of crimes that would make sure that he at a minimum would spend the rest of his life in prison if he were to loose power.

And you keep writing about the ”…/ The older Russians [that] grew up steeped in the meme /…”

Here you completely disregard:

1) The probably unparalleled brainwashing that the Psychopaths in Russia has subjected the population to through the now completely stated controlled media. And it was basically almost all state controlled before this so called ”special operation”.
2) Any kind of dissent in Russia worthy the name has been illegal and coupled with devastating consequences for how long now?

And finally and for the umpteenth time:
Before the full-scale invasion – who was going to attack Russia?
Since Aug. 29, 1949 Russia has nuclear weapons!
No-one would ever, ever, ever even think of attacking Russia!
IF Russia was a Democracy today then this whole thing would be a complete non-issue!

 

[mars_or_bust]

Seems Russia has a new submarine, to keep Moskva company:

Russian frigate Admiral Makarov - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

https://twitter.com/x/status/1522530441210834944

 

[nativewolf]

You keep writing a variation of this throughout this thread...

As I see it you've got the causation of all of this all wrong!

I don't think this is at all the way things went: ”…/ NATO’s eastern expansion may have contributed to Putin and Russia's paranoia which contributed to the plan to rebuild the Russian Empire to defend Mother Russia. /…”

If Russia was a Democracy today – then why would Russia see the west as an enemy?

What happened during the dissolution of the of the Soviet Union was that for a brief moment in time the Psychopaths that previously had controlled Russia/USSR lost control. But once Putin had ’asserted’ himself they were back.

As others have stated a numerous of times: Ukraine was and is a threat to the Psychopaths in Russia and Belarus since Ukraine was beginning to show the population inside Russia that another world – Democracy – was possible and also far superior. That became an existential threat to the Psychopaths in Russia and Belarus. In a Democracy psychopaths run a very clear risk of loosing power. Before the invasion Putin had also committed numerous of crimes that would make sure that he at a minimum would spend the rest of his life in prison if he were to loose power.

And you keep writing about the ”…/ The older Russians [that] grew up steeped in the meme /…”

Here you completely disregard:

1) The probably unparalleled brainwashing that the Psychopaths in Russia has subjected the population to through the now completely stated controlled media. And it was basically almost all state controlled before this so called ”special operation”.
2) Any kind of dissent in Russia worthy the name has been illegal and coupled with devastating consequences for how long now?

And finally and for the umpteenth time:
Before the full-scale invasion – who was going to attack Russia?
Since Aug. 29, 1949 Russia has nuclear weapons!
No-one would ever, ever, ever even think of attacking Russia!
IF Russia was a Democracy today then this whole thing would be a complete non-issue!

Exactly, this is all about Russia trying to reassemble the empire despite what other countries want and at any cost. Since they are so prejudiced I don't know why they want to reassemble. The pope was making excuses for Russia invading Ukraine. Russia could make the same argument about Alaska as they made about Ukraine. Crimea and Alaska came under Russian control at almost the same time. Nobody was going to invade Russia. They could make the same argument about Finland. There are simply no excuses for the popes statements. none

 

[ZsoZso]

USD RUB...https://www.google.com/finance/quote/USD-RUB?window=1M

The graph shows the USD dropping versus the Ruble.
If you zoom out to 6 month view, you can see that after the start of the war the USD spiked up to 139 Ruble for $1USD, or looking from the other side the Ruble lost a lot of value in March. However, by this time the graph dipped below the pre-war value of ~77 to the current ~67, meaning the USD is valued at fewer Rubles, thus the Ruble is stronger now than it was prior to the war!

This seems to suggest that either the sanctions are not working, or Putin's counter to require payment in Ruble for oil/gas is more effective than the sanctions.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Don't feed the troll. The ruble is being artificially propped up. The Russian economy is a house of cards that cannot stand with any permanence.

Putin tactics prop up Russian ruble â DW â 04/05/2022

The Russian currency has staged a remarkable comeback after taking a massive beating due to Western sanctions on Moscow. The United States has said the ruble's recovery is being fueled by "a lot of manipulation."

amp-dw-com.cdn.ampproject.org

 

[SageBrush]

This seems to suggest that either the sanctions are not working, or Putin's counter to require payment in Ruble for oil/gas is more effective than the sanctions.

It means neither. It means that the Ruble went from being traded freely in the market to having its "value" set artificially by the Russian Gov.

 

[SageBrush]

I thought you were asking about Catholic teaching.

I am, but perhaps it is because of my simplistic view that the overarching question here is that of Ukrainian self-determination which the pope may not see or acknowledge.

 

[nativewolf]

That's a bot or troll. I suspect it's actually just a bot. Ignore. If a moderator could ban it that would be helpful.

 

[nativewolf]

Germany to send seven howitzers to Ukraine in further policy reversal

Germany will deliver seven self-propelled howitzers to Ukraine, Defence Minister Christine Lambrecht said on Friday, in a further reversal of a longtime policy not to send heavy weapons to war zones due to the country's Nazi past.

www.reuters.com

They are sending the Panzerhaubitze 2000 . That's a pretty advanced howitzer, self propelled. Training being done in germany. Netherlands also sent 5. 12 total.

 

[nativewolf]

Germany to send seven howitzers to Ukraine in further policy reversal

Germany will deliver seven self-propelled howitzers to Ukraine, Defence Minister Christine Lambrecht said on Friday, in a further reversal of a longtime policy not to send heavy weapons to war zones due to the country's Nazi past.

www.reuters.com

They are sending the Panzerhaubitze 2000 . That's a pretty advanced howitzer, self propelled. Training being done in germany. Netherlands also sent 5. 12 total.

Correction- training at the airbase in Slovakia that is protected by a Dutch/german patriot battery

 

[jbcarioca]

The graph shows the USD dropping versus the Ruble.
If you zoom out to 6 month view, you can see that after the start of the war the USD spiked up to 139 Ruble for $1USD, or looking from the other side the Ruble lost a lot of value in March. However, by this time the graph dipped below the pre-war value of ~77 to the current ~67, meaning the USD is valued at fewer Rubles, thus the Ruble is stronger now than it was prior to the war!

This seems to suggest that either the sanctions are not working, or Putin's counter to require payment in Ruble for oil/gas is more effective than the sanctions.

Once again, the are NOT real free market rates. True open market Ruble purchases no longer are happening, and sale of rubles, other than on Gazprombank deals, very rarely happen. The last open market sales happened at around 139 Rubles per US$. Looking at these 'quotes' reflects a 'Potemkin village' style open market.

 

[STS-134]

When the USSR broke up the US and other NATO members agreed NATO would not spread eastward into the former Warsaw Pact countries.

There was no such agreement. An informal verbal statement does not constitute an agreement. But what was put into writing were agreements to end the hostilities in Ukraine after the 2014 invasion, and it was Russia, not Ukraine or NATO, that violated those agreements.

So inadvertently, NATO's eastern expansion may have contributed to Putin and Russia's paranoia

So? Saying that you heard "voices in your head" telling you to kill or attack someone is not legal justification for actually doing it.

 

[petit_bateau]

It looks like the Ukraine has crossed the Donets river heading eastwards near Izium in an attempt to pinch out the Russian thrust in the rear, some reports say on a pontoon bridge. Further north the Russians appear to be retreating to behind the Donets river in the area north-east of Kharkiv.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1522202434692870144

and I'm sure you've all seen the various rumours that the Admiral Makarov may be on fire near Snake Island, unconfirmed mind you

Russian frigate Admiral Makarov - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

https://twitter.com/x/status/1522349841807986688

 

[RobStark]

I respectfully disagree. This commentary by Quin Hillyer is a good summation of my feeling.

The pope’s verbal stumble is providing cover for Putin’s evil

The sainted Pope John Paul II, almost at the cost of his own life, spoke with great moral clarity and courage against Russian hegemonic aims. Pope Francis, unfortunately, lacks the clarity to speak in such a manner. Unfortunately, it means he is currently giving aid and comfort to an immoral…

www-washingtonexaminer-com.cdn.ampproject.org

John Paul never dealt with a hot war in Europe between Russia and another nation of 40M plus people.

Moral clarity is an easier choice when thousands of people are not dying and millions of people are not refugees.

 

[Skipdd]

Moral clarity is an easier choice when thousands of people are not dying and millions of people are not refugees.

Moral clarity - If the Pope doesn’t have moral clarity about what’s occurring, perhaps he shouldn’t be the Pope.. Sorry, I can’t accept your premise.

 

[mars_or_bust]

John Paul never dealt with a hot war in Europe between Russia and another nation of 40M plus people.

Moral clarity is an easier choice when thousands of people are not dying and millions of people are not refugees.

The Vatican very seldon had moral clarity, unfortunately. The current pope had a chance to correct the Catholic Church's atrocious reputation regarding morals, but he, like so many popes before him, blew his chance.

Records From Once-Secret Archive Offer New Clues Into Vatican Response To Holocaust

The Vatican has long maintained that Pope Pius XII did everything he could to save Jewish lives, but newly unearthed papers have renewed accusations of complicit silence against him.

www.npr.org

 

[SageBrush]

Moral clarity - If the Pope doesn’t have moral clarity about what’s occurring, perhaps he shouldn’t be the Pope.. Sorry, I can’t accept your premise.

The Vatican has absolute moral clarity when it is the aggressor ... but not when a people are fighting for freedom from oppression.

Let's get back to the Ukraine story. The Vatican and the pope are a side show of hypocrisy I'd rather not dwell on.