Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Russia/Ukraine conflict

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
#4,341
madodel said:
Not everyone here is in the US.

What ticks me off is all the cries of "We have to be energy independent" and now that we actually produce all the oil and gas the US needs they create an artificial shortage by exporting it out of the US. It's literally extortion by the oil companies and the producing nations including the US.

Also isn't lithium literally everywhere? I thought Musk was going to buy his own Li mine.
Click to expand...
Salton Sea Calif? Lithium is supposed to save it
 
  • Helpful
  • Like
Reactions: madodel and bkp_duke
#4,343
wdolson said:
Russia. Is. Not. Winning.

Russia got nervous and instead of realizing that it was their sabre rattling that was causing the movement towards NATO and backing down, they upped the ante, first taking a chunk out of Georgia and then two chunks of Ukraine as well as doubling down on their threats everywhere else. As a result, NATO became even more attractive to the countries that didn't want to be bullied by Russia.

Then Russia did a full scale invasion of Ukraine and the movement became a stampede.

Making serious noises about Ukraine and Georgia joining NATO is a big move, but considering Russia's danger to its neighbors, it's the right move for their safety.
Click to expand...
Just so we don't forget, and so that one day we can help then rectify the situation, Russia actually has occupied two separate regions of Georgia, (Abkhazia and South Ossetia).
 
Last edited:
  • Like
  • Helpful
Reactions: navguy12, SwedishAdvocate, nativewolf and 1 other person
#4,344
  • Like
  • Informative
Reactions: iPlug, SwedishAdvocate, bkp_duke and 4 others
#4,347
Snake Island confirmed to be evacuated.
Grain shipments are moving.

www.reuters.com

First cargo ship leaves Ukraine's occupied port of Berdyansk - official

A first cargo ship has left the Russian-occupied Ukrainian port of Berdyansk, a local official said on Thursday, after Russia said the port had been de-mined and was ready to resume grain shipments.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com

Putin also taking a weird conciliatory tone regarding NATO expansion.

It'll be interesting to see what oil markets do today.
 
  • Like
  • Informative
Reactions: navguy12, SwedishAdvocate, JRP3 and 2 others
#4,349
  • Informative
  • Like
Reactions: Sandor, bhzmark, EVCollies and 2 others
#4,350
nativewolf said:
Now they need to put a MLRS there and take out the SAM sites in Crimea, then things get interesting.
Click to expand...

The reason the Russians gave up the island was that it was hard to defend. Ukrainian MLRS are not the tool for the job, the American units are too rare to put at risk and the Russian made ones are out of ammo. They are also not really anti-shipping weapons. The Ukrainians have quite a number of anti-shipping missiles from the US and UK they could use, but again Snake Island is probably not the best place for them.

The strategic importance of Snake Island is anti-shipping missiles there can blockade Odesa. That makes it important for Russia, but for Ukraine it's OK if nobody controls it.

For hitting Crimea, launching from the Odesa area is about the same range as Snake Island and the launchers can be hidden better on the mainland. Snake Island is a tiny speck of land down near the Ukraine/Romania border. It's an out of the way place.

Now that Snake Island is abandoned outside countries may do what they have been talking about which is supplying naval escorts to Ukrainian grain ships in any out of Odesa. For the sake of world hunger, this is a something that is a win-win for Ukraine and the developing world.
 
  • Like
  • Informative
Reactions: navguy12, jeewee3000, Skipdd and 4 others
#4,352
wdolson said:
Now that Snake Island is abandoned outside countries may do what they have been talking about which is supplying naval escorts to Ukrainian grain ships in any out of Odesa. For the sake of world hunger, this is a something that is a win-win for Ukraine and the developing world.
Click to expand...
Would like to see Turkey take a strong leadership role here. Apparently further talks will be held between Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and the U.N. in Istanbul in coming weeks.

Turkey could escort or fly their flag on grain carrying ships. For Turkey, this would buy them much good will and increase their regional sphere of influence in the Mideast.

Russia would be especially wary against "accidentally" firing on those convoys or flagged ships as the Bosphorus/Dardanelles straits long term accessibility would be at stake for them.
 
  • Like
  • Disagree
Reactions: dhrivnak and UncaNed
#4,353
iPlug said:
Would like to see Turkey take a strong leadership role here. Apparently further talks will be held between Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and the U.N. in Istanbul in coming weeks.

Turkey could escort or fly their flag on grain carrying ships. For Turkey, this would buy them much good will and increase their regional sphere of influence in the Mideast.

Russia would be especially wary against "accidentally" firing on those convoys or flagged ships as the Bosphorus/Dardanelles straits long term accessibility would be at stake for them.
Click to expand...
No, I have a very bad feeling about asking anything of Turkey now that they're turning into a Muslim dictatorship or something.
 
  • Like
Reactions: navguy12, SwedishAdvocate, X Fan and 1 other person
#4,354
wdolson said:
The reason the Russians gave up the island was that it was hard to defend. Ukrainian MLRS are not the tool for the job, the American units are too rare to put at risk and the Russian made ones are out of ammo. They are also not really anti-shipping weapons. The Ukrainians have quite a number of anti-shipping missiles from the US and UK they could use, but again Snake Island is probably not the best place for them.

The strategic importance of Snake Island is anti-shipping missiles there can blockade Odesa. That makes it important for Russia, but for Ukraine it's OK if nobody controls it.

For hitting Crimea, launching from the Odesa area is about the same range as Snake Island and the launchers can be hidden better on the mainland. Snake Island is a tiny speck of land down near the Ukraine/Romania border. It's an out of the way place.

Now that Snake Island is abandoned outside countries may do what they have been talking about which is supplying naval escorts to Ukrainian grain ships in any out of Odesa. For the sake of world hunger, this is a something that is a win-win for Ukraine and the developing world.
Click to expand...
1. It is important that Snake Island is indubitably in Ukraine control as sovereign territory as that is an important location in UNCLOS territorial seas terms;
2. Value as a range-extending observation platform (naval & aviation), if only for relatively simple radar systems - and if only to conceal the true source of 'magic' targetting data that may be coming in from other sources;
3. Value as a range-extending weapons platform, both for anti-surface and anti-air weapons;
4. Value as a range/endurance extender for ships and aircraft (helos & UAVs);
5. Denial to Russians.

I don't think we have heard the last of Snake Island.

(I also suspect we have not yet heard all of how it was instrumental in the sinking of Moskva, as I have some suspicions as to how that was done.)
 
  • Informative
  • Like
Reactions: EVCollies, navguy12, SwedishAdvocate and 4 others
#4,356
UncaNed said:
No, I have a very bad feeling about asking anything of Turkey now that...
Click to expand...
Turkey has been one of the weakest NATO links for some time (often more of a liability than asset). And yes, much to do with them pushing more deeply into the autocracy spectrum.

Just think this is a better role for them considering what they are (not) doing now. Agree, probably best not to offer them anything of significance in return.
 
  • Like
Reactions: navguy12 and petit_bateau
#4,357
wdolson said:
The reason the Russians gave up the island was that it was hard to defend. Ukrainian MLRS are not the tool for the job, the American units are too rare to put at risk and the Russian made ones are out of ammo. They are also not really anti-shipping weapons. The Ukrainians have quite a number of anti-shipping missiles from the US and UK they could use, but again Snake Island is probably not the best place for them.

The strategic importance of Snake Island is anti-shipping missiles there can blockade Odesa. That makes it important for Russia, but for Ukraine it's OK if nobody controls it.

For hitting Crimea, launching from the Odesa area is about the same range as Snake Island and the launchers can be hidden better on the mainland. Snake Island is a tiny speck of land down near the Ukraine/Romania border. It's an out of the way place.

Now that Snake Island is abandoned outside countries may do what they have been talking about which is supplying naval escorts to Ukrainian grain ships in any out of Odesa. For the sake of world hunger, this is a something that is a win-win for Ukraine and the developing world.
Click to expand...

Everything around Odesa is HEAVILY mined right now to protect it from Russian amphibious assault. The Ukrainians would have to clear that out, and by doing so take on some additional risk. I just can't see them doing that unless they make further gains in Kherson and limit the Russian fleet further in the area (taking out some frigates, etc.).
 
  • Informative
  • Like
Reactions: navguy12, SwedishAdvocate, madodel and 1 other person
#4,358
iPlug said:
Turkey has been one of the weakest NATO links for some time (often more of a liability than asset). And yes, much to do with them pushing more deeply into the autocracy spectrum.

Just think this is a better role for them considering what they are (not) doing now. Agree, probably best not to offer them anything of significance in return.
Click to expand...
I'm afraid this issue is not over yet

www.theguardian.com

ErdoÄan warns Turkey could still block Finland and Swedenâs accession to Nato

Turkish president stressed the countries must meet Ankaraâs demand to extradite terror suspects
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
 
  • Informative
  • Disagree
Reactions: EVCollies, navguy12, SwedishAdvocate and 2 others
#4,359
Doggydogworld said:
The old lies stopped working, time for new ones!. Yellen's "price cap" is just additional indirect supply chain disruptions, e.g. pressuring intermediaries such as insurance carriers.

Question for astute investors -- what happens when supply chains are disrupted?
A. Prices go down
B. Prices go up

Yeah. So let's review. The existing "sanctions" disrupted oil flow out of Russia by a small amount, say 15%. They also caused oil prices to double. So Putin makes 0.85 * 2.00 = 1.70x as much from oil as he used to. We really showed him!!!

Working within the apolitical confines of supply and demand, the west has two near-term ways to actually hurt Putin:
1. Consume ~1m bpd less and let Russian oil flow freely. Price crashes and Putin goes back to 1.0x income. Maybe even 0.8x.
2. Consume ~5m bpd less and blockade ships/pipes w/Russian oil. Price returns to normal and Putin income falls to 0.2x (mostly from China).

We can only force lower consumption via wartime rationing. Very unpopular. The public blames politicians directly. So politicians instead choose to lie -- pretend to take useful action while actually raising Putin's income and kicking low income consumers (especially rural ones) in the nuts. High prices are just as painful as rationing, of course, but the politicians can deflect blame by saying "oil prices are set on a global market, there's nothing we can do".
Click to expand...
Supply chain disruptions normally cause price hikes because they reduce production.

My understanding is that this won’t reduce production, but will increase only Russia’s cost to produce and deliver, which affects their net cash flow. And that’s what matters, not total revenue.
 
  • Informative
Reactions: EVCollies
#4,360
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Proflig8tor
New to us X, 19 Raven, contact previous owner? Maintenance?
Replies
8
Views
614
Model X
father_of_6
F
F
Risk Manangnent of Buying AP1 Model S
Replies
19
Views
727
Model S
MSJack
M
RSpanner
Workers in Sweden Will Expand Strike Against Tesla
Replies
3
Views
1K
Tesla, Inc.
SwedishAdvocate
SwedishAdvocate
andrewFW
2020 Model X LR+ Service Experience
Replies
3
Views
939
Service / Maintenance
XCare EV
XCare EV
S
Service Center Totaled my 2023 MXLR
Replies
48
Views
3K
Model X
narkotic
N
Top
Back
Blog
New
Forum list
Marketplace
Menu