-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
Seems it's more of an adaptation for personal, social or government rank/status. Secret intelligence agencies would correct something so ridiculously obvious.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
You guys need to give up this line of thought. As a physician, I can tell you there is very little in what I see from his walk, etc. that makes me think he has months of life left. Even if he's ill, it's nothing that is going to take him out in short enough order to make any kind of difference for this war.
Focus your grey matter on things that might make a difference. Putin is not succumbing to disease, cancer, etc. Only a bullet or bomb is taking this guy out in short order.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
I hope this is true, because Russia is starting to make some moderate land gains now in the Donbas over the past month. They have also effectively countered Ukrainian drone warfare with their electronic interference. Constant changing landscape of war, let's watch and hope the Ukrainians adapt.
Might I suggest a switchblade drone to probe his colon?
Internal medicine hospitalist physician here and concur.
Russia is likely reaching the limits of its military might. But for Ukraine to ultimately prevail, they will need the West to continue high level replenishment of lethal aide, training, and heavy funding for perhaps years.
Analysts predict peak Ukrainian efficiency/firepower around late October when stock of Western arms is expected to reach a peak. Putin's most recent calculation is that he will outlast the West's support. Hopefully he has again miscalculated.
petit_bateau
Active Member
If you pull out a map, or use the maps at Invasion Day 128 – Summary - MilitaryLand.net and then overlay the info at
onto it - taking care with the place names, it seems to me that Ukraine is taking back more ground than it is ceding. Whether that trend will continue is of course uncertain.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Kings and Generals Third installment on the Russo-Ukrainian War.
Or someone attempting to look macho. I guess I hadn't noticed it before. I guess it isn't a sign of anything wrong with him other than toxic masculinity.
Bad call on my part.
There were rumors Russia was stripping its training regiments to send people to the front. If they did this, it would cause a sugar rush of trained troops for a short while, but even medium term it's going to be a disaster. The next generation of troops are not getting even the mediocre training they got before the war.
Germany did this in the middle of WW II and the quality of their specialist people like pilots began to fall off a cliff within a few months and really got bad within a year. Their entire military was suffering from lack of training, but in the army they had a well developed NCO corps who did all they could to give the untrained troops sent to the front some kind of training before being thrown into combat. All the old hands had experience of what worked and what didn't to pass on to the newbies. The Germans were also fighting to prevent the enemy from invading their home soil and at the end literally protecting their homes which has a tendency to boost soldier's sense of purpose. Poorly trained troops operating near their homes also have the advantage of knowing the terrain better than the enemy which is some kind of advantage.
Russia is throwing untrained troops into the cauldron with no NCO corps to try and train them up in any way before they are thrown into combat. Their successes have been few and only gained through brutal direct attrition combat which has gotten a lot of people killed. About the only survival tip the surviving veterans have is hope you get lucky and survive.
The Russians went through a phase in WW II shortly after their huge losses in 1941 when they threw warm bodies into combat like this which is one reason the Russians suffered the highest casualties of the war. But they had the warm bodies to throw at the war and they still kept their training organizations intact. They were still training tank drivers, pilots, etc.
Specialists are even more important on the modern battlefield. The equipment is more complex and training the operators is a bigger job. Someone who is going to drive a tank of another type of AFV is going to need some specialist training even if they know how to drive a car or even a commercial truck. Anti-aircraft systems are a complex array of equipment that needs a team of specialists to even find the enemy aircraft.
Russian artillery is nowhere near as accurate as western artillery because they still do a lot of calculations by hand that are done by computer in the west. While this old school approach requires less training to get shells in the air, it does require somebody with some math ability on each gun crew and they need to know the equations to use.
As the Russians lose specialists, their ability to fight their more complex weapons systems will continue to degrade. The western artillery is beginning to have an impact there. The Ukrainians are taking out logistical hubs and headquarters with the HIMARS, but they are also taking out artillery pieces and other vehicles that get within range of the 155mm guns. When those crews are lost, they are being replaced with instructors short term, but once the instructors are gone, there will be no pool of replacements.
The Russians have been shanghaiing any male they can find on the streets of town in LPR and DPR and sending them to the front as infantry with no training and WW II era equipment. The Russians call them one day troops because that is how long most of them survive in combat. That is, of course, horrible for the poor sots who have no choice in the matter, and it will become a viability problem for the Donbas after the war. So much of the male population is getting killed that they are going to have a difficult time running an economy without new people moving in. They will not be able to be independent republics as the Russians are calling them now. They will have to be reabsorbed back into Ukraine or become part of Russia if the Russians manage to hold on to them.
But that's infantry. Untrained people operating equipment that they have no clue how it works are in a more difficult position. The best case scenario is they don't do much of anything and are rendered ineffective. They could also become more harm than they are worth by targeting friendly aircraft with SAM systems, driving vehicles into other vehicles, shooting at the wrong targets causing a lot of friendly fire accidents, etc.
Ukraine has taken losses, but most of their expertise is still alive and fighting. They also have the advantage of not needing to hold back experts to train the next generation because NATO is doing that for them. Having a foreign training organization is a big advantage for Ukraine.
NATO and other countries aiding Ukraine need to keep up the flow of arms and expertise. Most of eastern Europe is highly motivated to see Russia neutered because they know they could very well be in the same position as Ukraine right now. Poland has been pulling out all the stops to aid Ukraine any way it can. Per capita Poland has donated the most to this war.
Even if France and Germany get squishy about aid, the US is unlikely to let up. The US has a large reserve of weapons in storage that it can give away with little consequence and while the US has pledged a lot of money in Ukraine terms, the $10 billion bill passed by Congress a few weeks ago is small compared to the overall US budget. The US is not really working up much of a sweat helping Ukraine. This is where the staggering US defense budget starts to pay dividends.
As for munitions, both side will probably get stressed eventually. The war is consuming artillery at a much higher rate than entire world production, but Russia is probably reaching the limits of its stockpiles now while the US is just beginning to tap into its reserve of rockets and 155mm shells for the artillery. The delay in getting NATO artillery into the fight might also pay dividends in the coming months because the Ukrainians will be working from a new supply source while Russia is scraping the bottom of the barrel of their supplies.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
Another physician here chiming in.
I have not observed Putin carefully to say much, but the medical speculation bandied about here is poppycock.
The horse is dead and well into decomposition.
New Ukrainian secret weapon. Very effective on the social media front...
petit_bateau
Active Member
Ukraine flag over Snake Island, again
www.theguardian.com
Ukrainian flag arrives in Snake Island after Russian retreat
Ukraine officials clarify initial confusion as to whether the flag has been raised, saying it is there but will be hoisted only once troops arrive
www.theguardian.com
Ukraine flag over Snake Island, again
Ukrainian flag arrives in Snake Island after Russian retreat
Ukraine officials clarify initial confusion as to whether the flag has been raised, saying it is there but will be hoisted only once troops arrive
You beat me to it. I was just about to post the same story. I also saw the Ukrainians claim they are within 1 Km of Kherson. Rather than a frontal assault on the city, I would try to encircle it and see if the Russians try to pull back or fall apart from a siege. Russian morale is already poor.
Kamil Galeev believes some kind of civil war is now inevitable in Russia on the back of this war
Thread by @kamilkazani on Thread Reader App
Thread by @kamilkazani on Thread Reader App
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
If I understood that correctly then he doesn't see the possibility of any kind of Democracy in 'the land of the Moscovites'. It's either something similar to what we have today or something even worse. Sounds like something the Kremlin would like to 'push' at this point...
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
Reading again it seems there is some kind of alternative. But he doesn't really specify what that alternative is...
