Russia/Ukraine conflict

[wdolson]

Trent Telenko has another truck logistics thread worth reading
Thread by @TrentTelenko on Thread Reader App

War Translated also has the transcripts of some intercepted calls that are telling of the state of the Russian army
Intercepted Call: "From the 1st platoon, I'm alone left". • WarTranslated

Intercepted Calls by GUR: 23 - 24 July • WarTranslated

It's anecdotal evidence, but a collection of anecdotal evidence can contribute to a larger picture too. There are a number of BTGs that have been rendered combat ineffective because they were mauled.

I think it was Trent Telenko a month or so back who pointed out that the Russians went into this war short of infantry. In peacetime their army is heavy on specialists and light on infantry with only the paratroops and Marines having many infantry. In most wars 80% of casualties are infantry. Their infantry heavy formations were badly mauled in the early fighting and have been pretty much knocked out of action. They have been scrambling to fill in the infantry with untrained people shanghaied off the streets of occupied Donesk and Luhansk as well as the fools who are volunteering in Russia to be used as cannon fodder.

These untrained troops are thrown in and get mauled in short order. The few experienced units in the DPR and LPR armies call the shanghaied troops "one day" soldiers because that's their life expectancy.

They are trying to merge mauled BTGs together to make functional units, but in most cases the same troop types have been wiped out, so they end up with BTGs heavy in specialists and shy of infantry. Anti-aircraft and artillery units can't take territory, that's the job of the infantry. If you don't have infantry all you can do is lob artillery into enemy territory and hope they surrender.

The arrival of NATO artillery has enabled the Ukrainians to take the momentum. They don't appear to have the units ready to advance yet, but they do have the ability to break the only thing in the Russian army that worked: their artillery. The Russians are faced with an intractable supply problem. They can't move supply close to the front lines by rail anymore and they don't have the trucks to move it long distance.

Reminds me of the old Gary Larsen cartoon
https://gottsusa.files.wordpress.com/2011/06/birthmark.jpg

 

[TNEVol]

Trent Telenko has another truck logistics thread worth reading
Thread by @TrentTelenko on Thread Reader App

War Translated also has the transcripts of some intercepted calls that are telling of the state of the Russian army
Intercepted Call: "From the 1st platoon, I'm alone left". • WarTranslated

Intercepted Calls by GUR: 23 - 24 July • WarTranslated

It's anecdotal evidence, but a collection of anecdotal evidence can contribute to a larger picture too. There are a number of BTGs that have been rendered combat ineffective because they were mauled.

I think it was Trent Telenko a month or so back who pointed out that the Russians went into this war short of infantry. In peacetime their army is heavy on specialists and light on infantry with only the paratroops and Marines having many infantry. In most wars 80% of casualties are infantry. Their infantry heavy formations were badly mauled in the early fighting and have been pretty much knocked out of action. They have been scrambling to fill in the infantry with untrained people shanghaied off the streets of occupied Donesk and Luhansk as well as the fools who are volunteering in Russia to be used as cannon fodder.

These untrained troops are thrown in and get mauled in short order. The few experienced units in the DPR and LPR armies call the shanghaied troops "one day" soldiers because that's their life expectancy.

They are trying to merge mauled BTGs together to make functional units, but in most cases the same troop types have been wiped out, so they end up with BTGs heavy in specialists and shy of infantry. Anti-aircraft and artillery units can't take territory, that's the job of the infantry. If you don't have infantry all you can do is lob artillery into enemy territory and hope they surrender.

The arrival of NATO artillery has enabled the Ukrainians to take the momentum. They don't appear to have the units ready to advance yet, but they do have the ability to break the only thing in the Russian army that worked: their artillery. The Russians are faced with an intractable supply problem. They can't move supply close to the front lines by rail anymore and they don't have the trucks to move it long distance.

Reminds me of the old Gary Larsen cartoon
https://gottsusa.files.wordpress.com/2011/06/birthmark.jpg

I appreciate the info on here so much. Each day I check in to see where things stand. Please don't stop keeping me totally up to date on what is happening.

 

[Tiger]

Nice snowball developing:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1555353740869132288

Wait 'till Hollywood gets wind of this.

 

[petit_bateau]

After sending all 30 of its T72 tanks to Ukraine, North Macedonia is now sending its 4 Su25 ground attack aircraft.

Good people.

Please Tesla, put at least one batch of Superchargers in North Macedonia, ideally near Petrovec on the E75.

After T-72 Tanks, North Macedonia Secretly Hands Over Four Su-25 Fighter Jets To Ukraine - Reports

The authorities of North Macedonia are secretly transferring four Su-25 fighters, which were bought from Ukraine in 2001, back to Kiev, Macedonian news portal MKD reported on Thursday, citing government sources. Taiwan’s ‘Strawberry Soldiers’ Who Eat Hamburgers To Gain Weight & Avoid Military...

eurasiantimes.com

https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/07/29/north-macedonia-to-provide-soviet-t-72-tanks-to-ukraine/

North Macedonia to give Ukraine four Su-25 jets

The Ministry of Defense of North Macedonia announced that it has decided to hand over to Ukraine four Su-25… - Aug. 05, 2022. By UkrInform

www.kyivpost.com

 

[dm28997]

Elon does more good in the world than people realize

"Today, August 3rd, SpaceX announced that Starlink satellite internet service is now available in Moldova. The country is situated between Romania and Ukraine. Starlink internet is already in use by Ukrainian refugee students who fled the ongoing war with Russia. In March, the Prime Minister of the Republic of Moldova Natalia Gavrilita shared that the Starlink network was useful for refugee processing at the border. “Thank you, Elon Musk! Spacex's Starlink service will provide internet connection services at border crossing points with Ukraine and refugees distribution centers. Starlink service will be provided free of charge and will be managed in partnership with moldovan authorities,” she shared via Twitter."

SpaceX Starlink Is Now Available In Moldova, Internet Is Already In Use By Ukrainian Refugees

 

[wdolson]

I appreciate the info on here so much. Each day I check in to see where things stand. Please don't stop keeping me totally up to date on what is happening.

Glad you appreciate it. Just sharing what I'm learning.

Nice snowball developing:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1555353740869132288

Wait 'till Hollywood gets wind of this.

I've seen some similar comments elsewhere. This lays it out in more detail though. It's estimated Russia is currently moving about 35 BTGs to Kherson. A story out today is that Russia is going to make another attempt to take Mykolaiv

https://twitter.com/x/status/1555667442852151298

Moscow is deluded enough to think they can do this with 35 BTGs that have limited artillery ammunition, probably a shortage of all ammunition and fuel, and are probably much more depleted in manpower than Moscow thinks. It would be 25,000 if the BTGs were at full strength, but there may only be 5-10,000 in those 35 BTGs. And those units are almost certainly short of infantry and armored elements because that's where the bulk of the casualties have been. They are going to try an assault against a well prepared defense with a bunch of under strength units with a shortage of ammunition of the one element that is still intact, the artillery.

I see another Ukrainian shaping operation. Let the Russians launch their attack, then once everyone is moving, take out the formations. It's easier to kill units while moving than stationary and dug in. Once weakened, the Russians will be very vulnerable to a successful counter attack.

After sending all 30 of its T72 tanks to Ukraine, North Macedonia is now sending its 4 Su25 ground attack aircraft.

Good people.

Please Tesla, put at least one batch of Superchargers in North Macedonia, ideally near Petrovec on the E75.

After T-72 Tanks, North Macedonia Secretly Hands Over Four Su-25 Fighter Jets To Ukraine - Reports

The authorities of North Macedonia are secretly transferring four Su-25 fighters, which were bought from Ukraine in 2001, back to Kiev, Macedonian news portal MKD reported on Thursday, citing government sources. Taiwan’s ‘Strawberry Soldiers’ Who Eat Hamburgers To Gain Weight & Avoid Military...

eurasiantimes.com

https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/07/29/north-macedonia-to-provide-soviet-t-72-tanks-to-ukraine/

North Macedonia to give Ukraine four Su-25 jets

The Ministry of Defense of North Macedonia announced that it has decided to hand over to Ukraine four Su-25… - Aug. 05, 2022. By UkrInform

www.kyivpost.com

I would not be surprised if Macedonia suddenly get a sweet arms deal from the US that replaced all their handed over weapons with newer American equipment.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Exclusive: U.S. readies new $1 billion Ukraine weapons package

The Biden administration's next security assistance package for Ukraine is expected to be $1 billion, one of the largest so far, and include munitions for long-range weapons and armored medical transport vehicles, three sources briefed on the matter told Reuters on Friday.

www.reuters.com

 

[RobStark]

So what do we think about this?

North Korea offering 100k "volunteers" for Russia's Ukraine war.

Supposedly in exchange for wheat and other supplies.

Russian state TV: North Korea offering Kremlin 100,000 ‘volunteers’

The pariah state’s offer of military assistance could not be immediately verified, but it was seized upon by Russian defense pundit Igor Korotchenko.

nypost.com

 

[madodel]

So what do we think about this?

North Korea offering 100k "volunteers" for Russia's Ukraine war.

Supposedly in exchange for wheat and other supplies.

Russian state TV: North Korea offering Kremlin 100,000 ‘volunteers’

The pariah state’s offer of military assistance could not be immediately verified, but it was seized upon by Russian defense pundit Igor Korotchenko.

nypost.com

Not surprising. "Will die for food" Scary if this becomes a genuine thing. are all North Koreans so brain washed they'll follow through once they are out of that hell hole? Or will they just fade into the hills? Kimmi and Puti both would benefit from meeting one of those new fangled Hellfires.

 

[wdolson]

So what do we think about this?

North Korea offering 100k "volunteers" for Russia's Ukraine war.

Supposedly in exchange for wheat and other supplies.

Russian state TV: North Korea offering Kremlin 100,000 ‘volunteers’

The pariah state’s offer of military assistance could not be immediately verified, but it was seized upon by Russian defense pundit Igor Korotchenko.

nypost.com

It might enable Russia to take a few kilometers before they get killed and the Ukrainians take it back.

The North Korean claims to have a population of 25 million and claim to have an army of 1.2 million. Though as we have seen with authoritarian regimes, especially ones that have been around a while (and NK is one of the oldest in the world at this point), what it says on the tin does not match the contents. Russia's army turned out to be a considerably less sophisticated and capable force than they had led the world to believe.

We do know from defectors that starvation is a constant problem in North Korea. Because of the bad diet in the north South Koreans are on average considerably taller than North Koreans. NK claims the population has grown from around 10 million in 1950 to 25 million today. It may not be that large, but we can't be sure.

Their army is very heavy on infantry, which is something the Russians need badly. During the Soviet era the Russian army was more cheap farm labor than an army. There were jokes the army couldn't fight a war in late summer because they had to be picking fruit and digging up potatoes. Getting promoted in the Russian army had more to do with your skills as a farm manager than a military commander.

It's likely NK uses their standing army for work projects rather than trained for fighting. I doubt they would be very effective on a 21st century battlefield.

The Chinese did prove that a hoard of poorly trained and equipped soldiers could overrun positions of a well equipped army through sheer numbers, but China had a huge pool of young men in the early 1950s to feed into the meat grinder. The Russians would be happy to feed North Koreans into the meat grinder and the force of bodies would push the Ukrainians back a bit, but it would be short lived.

This isn't 1950. With precision munitions the Ukrainians could fall back and pulverize human wave attacks with artillery designed to inflict personnel casualties. The losses among the North Korean troops would probably be higher than the Chinese troops during the Korean War. And those were extremely high.

It would likely look like the Battle for Henderson Field on Guadalcanal (Oct 23-26, 1942). The Japanese tried to push the US Marines off the airfield but after one particular night of nightmare fighting the Japanese had to withdraw. They had around 15% of their force killed, many more wounded, and had completely lost force cohesion.

Another problem the Russians are going to have with North Korean soldiers is any form of loyalty. North Korea puts a lot of effort into keeping their people from escaping. After the Korean War a large number of NK POWs asked to settle anywhere rather than be sent back to NK. How many North Korean soldiers will simply surrender as soon as they get an opportunity?

NK also has no combat experience since the Korean War. Most of the people who fought in that war are dead and there is no living experience of combat in their army. The Russians as bad as they are have some recent military experience with combat in Chechnya, Georgia, Syria, Libya, and Ukraine (2014) withing the last 20 years. There are active troops who have seen combat. NK has none of that. Any combat tactics they have are 70 years out of date. US allies have active training from US combat veterans, but NK doesn't even have that. Their biggest military ally, China, has very little real world combat experience too. And they are less friendly about training allies.

If true, it's not good short term, but I don't think the NK troops will be able to fight very well and it will be a blip in Russian combat capability that is fairly quickly neutralized.

In other news apparently first the Russian embassy in Madrid, but then from other outlets have been putting out this video
Russia tries to entice expats with ‘cringe’ new advert

It's pretty weird, several sites have called it self parody. A bit of irony, the woman shown as a "beautiful" Russian woman in the video is a Ukrainian model whose image was sold as stock footage before the war.

The parodies are up too

 

[lolachampcar]

Is anyone else in fear of Moscow using Europe's largest nuke power plant as nuclear weapon without the stigma of using battlefield/tactical nuclear weapons all the while pinning it on the Ukrainians? It would be a perfect opportunity for Moscow to claim the high ground and say we are going to stop this fighting so we can address this huge catastrophe. They can bail on a loosing battle and try to look good in the process. I guess it depends on which way the wind is blowing.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

Is anyone else in fear of Moscow using Europe's largest nuke power plant as nuclear weapon without the stigma of using battlefield/tactical nuclear weapons all the while pinning it on the Ukrainians? It would be a perfect opportunity for Moscow to claim the high ground and say we are going to stop this fighting so we can address this huge catastrophe. They can bail on a loosing battle and try to look good in the process. I guess it depends on which way the wind is blowing.

I don't see how they would be able to avoid "the stigma" here. The truth would come out.

Also: Isn't Ukraine the 'ancestral homeland' of the 'Moscovites'? Would they really turn this 'ancestral homeland' into a radioactive wasteland for how many thousands of years? And what if the fallout reaches NATO member states? What happens then?

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

Continued: And how would they avoid contaminating the water that they need for Crimea (or is it Krym – I don't remember...)?

 

[wdolson]

Russia has been threatening directly or indirectly of causing a nuclear accident since the early days of the war. Of course they are always claiming Ukraine is doing something. Like all their other outrageous claims, they are so over the top only a few fools outside Russia believe them.

The Soviets did practice a scorched earth policy in WW II destroying anything that might be of use to the Germans as they left. And they have been trying to burn Ukrainian crops where ever they can.

It is possible if the war gets worse for them and they start losing ground in large areas, they could let the plant go critical and cause a major accident. They would try to blame the Ukrainians, but the world would know. It would also require a ground commander close to the plant to set things in motion and that commander would know they would probably get contaminated too and die of radiation poisoning, so there is the human factor too that might save everyone. Hitler ordered the general in charge of Paris to blow up the city rather than let it fall to the Allies. He had been a loyal general to that point, but he surrendered the city rather than blow it up.

Nuclear power plants can't blow up like a nuclear bomb. It's physically impossible. There are various ways to start a melt down and breach the containment buildings so the radiation spreads out into the air. The prevailing winds in southern Ukraine are out of the west and blow eastward, so any radiation release would almost certainly end up with fallout in southern Russia and also into countries like Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. It would probably also spread over southern Asia contaminating countries the Russians need to keep onside including India and China.

Add to that if the winds were blowing the other way when they did it, or they shifted the other was, the radiation would blow over Poland and Hungary. If the winds were blowing south, the radiation would likely reach Turkey. All NATO countries. That could trigger article 5 bringing NATO into the war full force. As much as Russia talks a tough line about going into a hot war with NATO, anyone with any idea of the realities in Ukraine know for certain that a hot war with NATO would mean the complete end of Russian conventional forces. As well as having much of their oil and gas infrastructure wiped out with no means to repair it (no help from the west and no access to western made equipment necessary to get the oil and gas moving again).

Everybody in the world would be hit economically and there would be shortages of oil and gas as well as some other things Russia exports, but Russia would be left crippled. The only thing they would have left is their nuclear arsenal which might well be as iffy as their conventional forces or worse.

The Russians will certainly threaten it, but the downside risk of such a move is fantastically high. Putin might be far enough gone to order it, but it would take a commander on the scene with loyal enough people willing to potentially die of radiation poisoning to set the plant critical. That could be a big ask in an army that is having serious morale problems at every level.

 

[RobStark]

Short 2:10 minute vid

 

[petit_bateau]

HARM seem to be in play, lots of debate about what might be the launch platform. If this is widespread then the combination of HARM and HIMARS will give the Ukraine greater ability to unpeel the Russian air defence network. That in turn will mean that Ukraine ability to use air power will greatly improve.

One comment is that Russia has lost " 15 S-300 + 1 Pantsir -S in the last 3 days. "

https://twitter.com/x/status/1556286860128931843

 

[Unclepaul]

Target spotting often has a forward observer flying a small drone over areas. Can pinpoint GPS coordinates and using Starlink or cell phones, can send info to artillery for precision strikes. Simple, inexpensive and practical. One precision shell per target elimination.

 

[petit_bateau]

There appears to have been a very significant amount of Russian redeployment of BTGs down towards south. Whatever constitutes a BTG that is. If you look at the POB and DefMon maps the FIRMS data shows much more dispersed fire of a lesser intensity, and the Russian BTG/km is now evenly spread along entire front. Very little Russian force concentration, a much more defensive posture. The JoW data gives much the same picture as does MilNet. Ukraine is still slowly losing ground in some areas, not obviously retaking much ground and only then in an incremental manner. The ability of Ukraine to do deeper advances with all the required force co-ordination is unclear. A lot of speculation that Kherson is a deception. A significant comment that Ukraine aircraft are now returning from sorties carrying long range fuel tanks. If Ukraine could take Kherson it might trap c. 25 BTGs. If Ukraine could retake Melitopol it would be in HIMARs range of Kerch bridge and trap 50 BTGs. Ukraine now has better choices than it previously had.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1556177332217548801

https://twitter.com/x/status/1555513448506736640

https://twitter.com/x/status/1554647160804851712

https://militaryland.net/ukraine/invasion-day-164-summary/

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

From the video-description:

Cruise & ballistic missiles in Ukraine - effectiveness, lessons (and are the Russians running out?)​

Russia (and the USSR before it) has always placed great emphasis on its missile and rocket forces. Whether the threat to be countered was NATO aircraft, shipping, or ground targets, the Russian military has always looked to relatively advanced missile systems as the answer.

And so, when the February invasion opened, many observers expected Russia to commence its campaign with a barrage of modern cruise and ballistic missiles, the famous Kalibr and Iskander missiles, destroying Ukrainian command and communications infrastructure. Instead, what followed was a relatively limited campaign the achieved, at best, the temporary suppression of the Ukrainian air forces and air defences.

As the war evolved however, Russia broadened its list of targets and started inflicting a greater toll on Ukrainian targets. For their part, the Ukrainians introduced their own new family of missiles - the GLMRS of HIMARS fame.

In this video I look at that initial missile campaign, the way the campaign evolved subsequently, and what lessons other countries might take from the war to date. I also address the question of sustainability - is Russia running out of these precision munitions, and to what extent do their production facilities have the ability to compensate.

One thing I do want to say as well, is that while I try and take a reasonably detached look at issues like this, I want to make clear that discussing the performance of these systems shouldn't take away from recalling the very real human impact of their use, particularly against civilian targets or in built up areas. /...

 

[wdolson]

HARM seem to be in play, lots of debate about what might be the launch platform. If this is widespread then the combination of HARM and HIMARS will give the Ukraine greater ability to unpeel the Russian air defence network. That in turn will mean that Ukraine ability to use air power will greatly improve.

One comment is that Russia has lost " 15 S-300 + 1 Pantsir -S in the last 3 days. "

https://twitter.com/x/status/1556286860128931843

View attachment 837718

About two weeks ago the US announced that they had shipped a bunch of Phoenix Ghosts to Ukraine. I suspect those are going into action now. The Phoenix Ghost is the USAF's version of the Switchblade. The Switchblade is optimized to take out enemy vehicles, while the Phoenix Ghost is designed as a HARM loitering munition. I expected Russian AA systems to start getting hit once the PGs were in action.

The Ukrainians might be using PGs to take out the radar for AA systems followed up with some 155mm fire or a few HIMAR rockets to finish the job.

There appears to have been a very significant amount of Russian redeployment of BTGs down towards south. Whatever constitutes a BTG that is. If you look at the POB and DefMon maps the FIRMS data shows much more dispersed fire of a lesser intensity, and the Russian BTG/km is now evenly spread along entire front. Very little Russian force concentration, a much more defensive posture. The JoW data gives much the same picture as does MilNet. Ukraine is still slowly losing ground in some areas, not obviously retaking much ground and only then in an incremental manner. The ability of Ukraine to do deeper advances with all the required force co-ordination is unclear. A lot of speculation that Kherson is a deception. A significant comment that Ukraine aircraft are now returning from sorties carrying long range fuel tanks. If Ukraine could take Kherson it might trap c. 25 BTGs. If Ukraine could retake Melitopol it would be in HIMARs range of Kerch bridge and trap 50 BTGs. Ukraine now has better choices than it previously had.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1556177332217548801

https://twitter.com/x/status/1555513448506736640

https://twitter.com/x/status/1554647160804851712

https://militaryland.net/ukraine/invasion-day-164-summary/

I've been reading about the Russians shifting troops. The Ukrainians appear to be allowing the Russians to reposition their troops without serious harassment which tells me they are planning something.

Things may have changed, but I read the Russians were moving more BTGs into Kherson. A good fake would be to keep the Russians tied down in Kherson and immobilized with MLRS and HIMARS attacks on transport, then send the bulk of the army on an end run between Donbas and Kherson to cut off the Russians from the back. Then a large chunk of the Russian army is trapped in a pocket with no supply.

I mentioned the other day I was listening to a podcast about Stalingrad a couple of weeks ago and I was struck at how the Russians have made almost every mistake Germany did at Stalingrad. The Russians were able to encircle the 6th Army and wipe it out in the end. That may be Ukraine's strategy.

The Russians appear to be blind to some tactics and strategies that are available to them. The Ukrainians have used strategically giving ground to gain a better position quite wisely. The Russians don't seem to be able to conceive of that strategy. Of course NATO rockets have made it critical the Russians hold ground that is going to be difficult to hold against a well coordinated attack. If the Ukrainians gain any significant ground in the south that puts the Kerch Straits bridge in range, as you pointed out, but it also puts the ports of Crimea in range of Ukrainian anti-shipping missiles. That would require Russia to give up using their Crimean ports.

Trent Telenko has been saying for months the Ukrainians have been doing shaping operations on the Russians. They are maneuvering the Russians into positions where every decision is bad and there are no options left with positive outcomes. Allowing the Russians to move BTGs into the south might be part of another shaping operation.

We'll see what happens in the next few weeks. The Ukrainian general who has been very prescient about the war predicted the Russian army would start to crumble by mid-August.

I was reading some intercepted phone calls and some things Kamil Galeev wrote about what's going on. Russian commanders have been deliberately under reporting losses to hide the disaster. They eventually report losses, but sometimes months after they happen. As a result there are units that on paper are at 1/2 strength or better that in reality are just a handful of guys left. In one of the intercepted phone calls a guy told his brother that his BTG was down to 6 infantry and they were getting sent into combat.

In any kind of sane military when a unit gets that depleted, it's pulled from combat and rebuilt unless it's some sort of situation like the Ukrainians at Mariupol where your troops are surrounded and cut off in a deteriorating defensive situation. Most armies would pull a unit from combat by the time it got to 2/3 or 1/2 strength. A depleted unit is useless for any kind of offensive operation.

Because of the under reported losses it's quite possible many of those BTGs being redeployed to the south are only shells of units with little real combat capability.