Interesting interview with ex KGB agent. Short version, his opinion is Putin is not going to give up and even if he were taken out the war would continue.
Russia will probably have to give up the war when something internal happens. That could be the economy falling apart, internal conflict as provinces try to break away, a troop rebellion (how things ended for both Russia and Germany in WW I) or just running out of something critical like men willing to die for the cause or ammunition.
This conflict like pretty much all post-WW II conflicts, is "come as you are". Almost all the arms used in this war were made before the war. Russia's military industry is only geared to peacetime levels and is short of just about everything it needs to make new weapons and ammunition. Russia has vast stocks of ammunition and equipment dating back to the Soviet era, but their storage practices are very poor and a lot of it is useless.
NATO also has vast stocks of weapons and ammunition in part because they knew the Russians had a lot. But NATO countries mostly maintain their equipment and regularly check their ammunition stocks to keep them fresh and ready to go.
This gives Ukraine a critical edge. The NATO stocks aren't infinite, but they are deep and almost everything given to Ukraine works as intended. Ukraine also has the morale of a people who know it's fight or lose their homes and their freedom.
Can anyone decipher how much truth is in this video?
It does not seem unthinkable, Blackrock lives on this kind of stuff around the world.
If you want the short version, check out video transcript.
It gets a bit political about workers rights which is a totally different topic.
It's always possible there are western countries looking for an angle, but I wouldn't count the Ukrainians out. They have shown themselves to be well led and not likely to be taken in by snake oil sales tactics.
One of the reasons for this war is Ukraine is sitting on two massive natural gas fields and there is some oil there too. Part is off the Black Sea coast and part is in the Donbas. That's why Russia wants those two areas.
Ukraine will need western help to bring those fields online, but I'm sure they will also negotiate hard to get contracts that benefit Ukraine.
Ukraine is also in a position that after this war they could do what Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea did. They could become the place to manufacture stuff cheap. The world is looking for someplace new now that China has been having problems. Then they can evolve into a place to make more sophisticated things. Ukraine's education level is quite good, their population can readily learn how to make complex things, but the cost of labor there is low, so it's a great incentive for companies to move in and do business.
There will be people looking to take advantage, but I expect Ukraine will come out on top in most deals.
The German artillery is being pushed to/beyond its limits by Ukraine. Apparently when firing at high elevation the shell is slipping backwards and the gas pressure is creating abnormal wear, requiring early servicing.
Just a month after the delivery of the German artillery systems to Ukraine, the PzH 2000 self-propelled howitzers are already showing signs of wear and tear.
bulgarianmilitary.com
Suspicion of sabotage at a ammunition facility within a NATO country. Not the first time.
A fire at an ammunition depot near Karnobat woke the people from the town up in the middle of the night. No casualties have been reported. The ammunition storage facilities are on the territory of former army barracks. Two...
bnr.bg
One fault of German equipment is that it can be over engineered. The Germans lost more Tiger tanks to mechanical breakdowns than enemy action. The things were so complex they were a maintenance nightmare.
The explosion was in Bulgaria. Most of the munitions were probably for Soviet era equipment. The Russians are probably trying to eliminate the ability for the Ukrainians to use their ex-Soviet or captured Russian equipment.
It might cause a short term supply problem for the Ukrainians, but they are transitioning to NATO equipment now. That's a more reliable ammunition chain and one the Russians are going to have more trouble messing with.
I always thought a core design of a howitzer was firing at high elevation.
For maximum range, you need to fire at a 45 degree angle. You get shorter ranges at angles above and below that. At angles below, you get a flatter trajectory, at higher angles you get plunging fire from a higher trajectory. The Ukrainians might be firing at higher than 45 degree angles to get plunging fire. The German engineers probably figured that if you're firing at shorter range, you would want to use a lower barrel angle rather than a higher one.
I can see where the shell could slip backwards at a higher angle.
People are playing with matches and stacking kindling
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All we need is for the Balkans conflict of the 90s to kick off again. I had hoped the parties involved had learned that war was destructive and not really got anybody much in the end.
www.theguardian.com
