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Russia/Ukraine conflict

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Every time, I think the horrors inflicted could not get worse, I see a new article that proves this false. Even though the publication cited by Trent Telenko is not a respected one, (The Daily Mail) in that article it cites others that make it more credible. We (US) need to up the ante with whatever it takes to crush this evil - sooner. And then sanctions stay until fundamental change ensues in Russia to cause them to be on a path to be a responsible nation that abides by world norms.

 
Every time, I think the horrors inflicted could not get worse, I see a new article that proves this false. Even though the publication cited by Trent Telenko is not a respected one, (The Daily Mail) in that article it cites others that make it more credible. We (US) need to up the ante with whatever it takes to crush this evil - sooner. And then sanctions stay until fundamental change ensues in Russia to cause them to be on a path to be a responsible nation that abides by world norms.


My partner came across the stories of children being removed to Russia. She thinks since their birthrate is so low, they think they can replace the missing children in their own population with kidnapped children, though I'm not sure it's quite that thought out. It's still pretty sick.

So many Russians are trying to work an angle to make a ruble. Slave labor is just another angle.
 
Every time, I think the horrors inflicted could not get worse, I see a new article that proves this false. Even though the publication cited by Trent Telenko is not a respected one, (The Daily Mail) in that article it cites others that make it more credible. We (US) need to up the ante with whatever it takes to crush this evil - sooner. And then sanctions stay until fundamental change ensues in Russia to cause them to be on a path to be a responsible nation that abides by world norms.

There is no supply without demand.

So think of that when you buy oil from UAE.
 
About two weeks ago the US announced that they had shipped a bunch of Phoenix Ghosts to Ukraine. I suspect those are going into action now. The Phoenix Ghost is the USAF's version of the Switchblade. The Switchblade is optimized to take out enemy vehicles, while the Phoenix Ghost is designed as a HARM loitering munition. I expected Russian AA systems to start getting hit once the PGs were in action.

The Ukrainians might be using PGs to take out the radar for AA systems followed up with some 155mm fire or a few HIMAR rockets to finish the job.
The photographic evidence are pieces of the control surfaces from AGM-88, including visible part numbers that correlate entirely with public domain info for AGM-88. That is a very different piece of kit than a man-portable Phoenix Ghost. An AGM-88 is a 355kg missile, whereas a PG is a 25kg item. With a AGM-88 one really interesting question is what might be the launch platform as until now these have only been capable of being launched from NATO aircraft. Another question is whether these photos can be positively tied to use in Ukraine, though given the provenance (Russian) and the observed uptick in Russian SAM losses that may be a moot point.

Regarding the PG where are you getting the info that it is a HARM munition please ? My reading so far has been that PG is a camera-based loitering munition with a target image library, That is quite a different thing than a ARM which has an RF sensor suite. I'm not saying you are wrong, but interested as to where you are getting your info.

AGM-88 HARM - Wikipedia


 
The photographic evidence are pieces of the control surfaces from AGM-88, including visible part numbers that correlate entirely with public domain info for AGM-88. That is a very different piece of kit than a man-portable Phoenix Ghost. An AGM-88 is a 355kg missile, whereas a PG is a 25kg item. With a AGM-88 one really interesting question is what might be the launch platform as until now these have only been capable of being launched from NATO aircraft. Another question is whether these photos can be positively tied to use in Ukraine, though given the provenance (Russian) and the observed uptick in Russian SAM losses that may be a moot point.

Regarding the PG where are you getting the info that it is a HARM munition please ? My reading so far has been that PG is a camera-based loitering munition with a target image library, That is quite a different thing than a ARM which has an RF sensor suite. I'm not saying you are wrong, but interested as to where you are getting your info.

AGM-88 HARM - Wikipedia



I guess what I read was speculation. What we do know is the US DoD has said it's like the Switchblade, but has a loitering time of 6 hours. The longest loitering time for any loitering munition I believe. That would imply a fairly large drone to have that sort of range. It would likely be bigger than the Switchblade 600 which doesn't have anywhere near that sort of range.

We do know that the Phoenix Ghost was a USAF project, not an Army project. The USAF's mission is more focused on AA systems as well as other enemy air related assets. The Wild Weasel mission is a dangerous one and an unmanned HARM drone would be much safer for pilots. And an autonomous HARM that could be up there for hours difficult to detect would be a game changer for air defense systems.

If the PG isn't a loitering HARM I'm sure the US is working on it. It's too good a niche not to exploit.

With a larger drone, you might be able to have a larger warhead. What if the Phoenix Ghost was designed to carry something like an AGM-88 warhead? Maybe a smaller version of the same warhead? I know the warhead on the AGM-88 is much bigger than the Switchblade 600.

If it wasn't Phoenix Ghosts, then how did those AGM-88 parts get into a destroyed AA system? The Ukrainians don't have the capability to air launch those so the only other possibility would be some kind of new ability to ground launch them, which isn't out of the range or possibility. There are some ingenious kludges going on in the Ukrainian army.
 
I guess what I read was speculation. What we do know is the US DoD has said it's like the Switchblade, but has a loitering time of 6 hours. The longest loitering time for any loitering munition I believe. That would imply a fairly large drone to have that sort of range. It would likely be bigger than the Switchblade 600 which doesn't have anywhere near that sort of range.

We do know that the Phoenix Ghost was a USAF project, not an Army project. The USAF's mission is more focused on AA systems as well as other enemy air related assets. The Wild Weasel mission is a dangerous one and an unmanned HARM drone would be much safer for pilots. And an autonomous HARM that could be up there for hours difficult to detect would be a game changer for air defense systems.

If the PG isn't a loitering HARM I'm sure the US is working on it. It's too good a niche not to exploit.

With a larger drone, you might be able to have a larger warhead. What if the Phoenix Ghost was designed to carry something like an AGM-88 warhead? Maybe a smaller version of the same warhead? I know the warhead on the AGM-88 is much bigger than the Switchblade 600.

If it wasn't Phoenix Ghosts, then how did those AGM-88 parts get into a destroyed AA system? The Ukrainians don't have the capability to air launch those so the only other possibility would be some kind of new ability to ground launch them, which isn't out of the range or possibility. There are some ingenious kludges going on in the Ukrainian army.
Assuming for the moment the AGM-88 parts are real, and come from Russian-collected fragments at their SAM-sites in Ukraine that were targetted by Ukraine. Note the publicly identifiable AGM-88 parts were control surfaces, which implies it was pretty much the whole AGM-88 missile in use, not just a repurposed warhead, seeker, etc (though maybe a booster package was not involved, who knows). If so that would imply the following launch options:

1 - from a Western-manufacture aircraft in Ukraine hands (most likely would be F16);
2 - from a Soviet-era aircraft in Ukraine hands, either;
-- a) Ukraine plane with additional wiring loom etc;
-- b) Ukraine helicopter with additional wing loom etc;
-- c) ex-NATO plane with additional wiring loom etc (there is no public domain info as to whether the Polish/etc Migs were adapted in this way);
3 - ground launched system.

There is a lot of discussion as to which of these may be going on, but no solid evidence in any direction. The use of (say) 2b or 3 would be the least capable, whereas 1 would be an utter jaw droppingly good game changer.
 
What we do know is the US DoD has said it's like the Switchblade, but has a loitering time of 6 hours. The longest loitering time for any loitering munition I believe. That would imply a fairly large drone to have that sort of range. It would likely be bigger than the Switchblade 600 which doesn't have anywhere near that sort of range.
Size isn't the issue with loitering time. This guy stuffed extra 2170s into his RC plane and flew 10+ hours. It's closer to the length of a Switchblade 600 but the (pre-battery) weight of a 300. And his plane is a behemoth compared to the Nano Goblin which can fly over an hour out of the box despite a very inefficient wing shape.

The Ukrainian spokesguy who said Phoenix Ghost could loiter 6 hours also said it could fit in a backpack and take out light armor. That describes the 300. The 600 is (kinda) man portable but certainly doesn't fit in a backpack. And it can take out a tank.

What would it take to for a 300 to loiter 6 hours? I'd lengthen the front wing and add 1 kg of zinc-air batteries in the nose. Easy. At least in terms of flying. Getting a longer wing to fit in a 300's tube and deploy upon launch would be tricky, but give me a juicy DoD contract and I'd figure it out :)

We do know that the Phoenix Ghost was a USAF project, not an Army project. The USAF's mission is more focused on AA systems as well as other enemy air related assets.

If the PG isn't a loitering HARM I'm sure the US is working on it. It's too good a niche not to exploit.
Note the dates of the Tacit Rainbow program.

If it wasn't Phoenix Ghosts, then how did those AGM-88 parts get into a destroyed AA system? The Ukrainians don't have the capability to air launch those so the only other possibility would be some kind of new ability to ground launch them, which isn't out of the range or possibility.
Ground launch is easier than air launch, you just lose range. Here's a containerized launcher for a recent AGM-88 variant called AARGM.
 
Everyone is trying to figure it out, including whether it is real. No-one knows.


This is allegedly the official Twitter account of a Washington-based journalist:

Credit goes to (in Swedish):
 
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Assuming for the moment the AGM-88 parts are real, and come from Russian-collected fragments at their SAM-sites in Ukraine that were targetted by Ukraine. Note the publicly identifiable AGM-88 parts were control surfaces, which implies it was pretty much the whole AGM-88 missile in use, not just a repurposed warhead, seeker, etc (though maybe a booster package was not involved, who knows). If so that would imply the following launch options:

1 - from a Western-manufacture aircraft in Ukraine hands (most likely would be F16);
2 - from a Soviet-era aircraft in Ukraine hands, either;
-- a) Ukraine plane with additional wiring loom etc;
-- b) Ukraine helicopter with additional wing loom etc;
-- c) ex-NATO plane with additional wiring loom etc (there is no public domain info as to whether the Polish/etc Migs were adapted in this way);
3 - ground launched system.

There is a lot of discussion as to which of these may be going on, but no solid evidence in any direction. The use of (say) 2b or 3 would be the least capable, whereas 1 would be an utter jaw droppingly good game changer.

I suppose it is possible that Ukraine is operating some updated former NATO aircraft that were slipped to them when nobody was looking. If even one F-16 was in Ukraine, there would be some evidence of it by now. Those would be hard to hide, they look very different from any of the ex-Soviet aircraft in the Ukrainian inventory.

As the article you posted more recently suggests, it is possible this is a fake created by the Russians to argue the US is directly involved in the war.

Size isn't the issue with loitering time. This guy stuffed extra 2170s into his RC plane and flew 10+ hours. It's closer to the length of a Switchblade 600 but the (pre-battery) weight of a 300. And his plane is a behemoth compared to the Nano Goblin which can fly over an hour out of the box despite a very inefficient wing shape.

The Ukrainian spokesguy who said Phoenix Ghost could loiter 6 hours also said it could fit in a backpack and take out light armor. That describes the 300. The 600 is (kinda) man portable but certainly doesn't fit in a backpack. And it can take out a tank.

What would it take to for a 300 to loiter 6 hours? I'd lengthen the front wing and add 1 kg of zinc-air batteries in the nose. Easy. At least in terms of flying. Getting a longer wing to fit in a 300's tube and deploy upon launch would be tricky, but give me a juicy DoD contract and I'd figure it out :)


Note the dates of the Tacit Rainbow program.


Ground launch is easier than air launch, you just lose range. Here's a containerized launcher for a recent AGM-88 variant called AARGM.

The containerized concept was shown at a trade show, but there is no evidence it was ever developed. The containerized launcher also loses a lot of flexibility you would have with a Wild Weasel.

This is allegedly the official Twitter account of a Washington-based journalist:

Credit goes to (in Swedish):

I find this odd. To launch the AGM-88 requires a lot of electronics on the launch aircraft that the ex-Soviet planes don't have without a pretty extensive refit. Though maybe the US has integrated those electronics into a pod, the plane would still need the avionics to work with the pod.

This smells of indirection to me. The US may be admitting here that the parts the Russians are showing are real. ie the Ukrainians have AGM-88s now, but the launcher is some system they don't want to disclose yet. Which could be some kind of ground launched system.

The speculation says it couldn't be from a HIMARS because the AGM-88 and the MRLS missile are different sizes and shapes, but the AGM-88 is only a little bit too long for the launch pod and the launch pod is capable of launching larger missiles with one per pod instead of 6. So maybe the US modified the AGM-88 into an MRLS/HIMARS launch capable weapon? If it could be modified to fit into one of those launch pods that would be the weapon system to use for surface launch. It would utilize the launcher that is already in use.
 
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.../ The Pentagon announced Monday that the US has sent anti-radar missiles for Ukrainian aircraft to target Russian radar systems, marking the first time the Defense Department has acknowledged sending the previously undisclosed missile to Ukraine. /...

Source:

Credit goes to (in Swedish):
 
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Lost for words. He's blaming Ukraine... And Taiwan.

Pink Floyd's co-founder accuses Biden of 'huge crime' in Ukraine​

CNN's Michael Smerconish joins New Day to talk about his wide-ranging interview with Pink Floyd co-founder Roger Waters, where they discuss the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the ongoing tensions between China and Taiwan.

 
US has confirmed ARM anti-radiation-missile supplies to Ukraine, but not where or which type, or what platform they are capable of being fired from


Some long range interventions ...... more than standard HIMARs range, and corresponding rumours of ATACM vs behind-the-lines activity


and this seems to be a different location, 200-km from the nearest front line


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