Russia/Ukraine conflict

[unk45]

1. Russia has a UN P5 veto. Given the state of the sanctions process (JCPOA) and the likely proximity of Iran to nuclear breakout status that veto would be handy to Iran.

2. Russia has railroads and grain, fertiliser, etc exports and a severe lack of warm water ports. Iran would like the hard cash and further help in building its railroads and ports, plus a handy backup to remind China that Iran has more than one friend.

3. Russia has some interesting technology Iran would like.

(Iran makes its own missiles. Iran has spent so long under sanctions that it knows how to play this game).

(Iran can get funds in and out for commercial purposes that are sanctions-compliant. )

Iran is much less isolated than the 'West' may desire:

Iran Resumes Diplomatic Relations with UAE and Kuwait, Talks Continue with Saudi Arabia

Amid positive signals surrounding nuclear talks among Iran and Western nations, both the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait have quietly restored diplomatic ties with Tehran. Iran's Foreign Ministry indicated Monday that talks with Saudi Arabia over resuming ties are also going in a positive...

www.voanews.com

Keeping mind also that the Iranian business community never disappeared. Kuwait has supplied Iran with large quantities of products fro decades. The Mullahs never really stopped that. The UAE never lost it's large Iranian population. Sunni-Shia issues are serious impediments, but...Kuwait and the UAE were built and developed as entrepôt and never have really depended completely on oil and gas,

These are very old relationships that are publicly acrimonious and privately conveniently practical. Of course the domestic Shia populations of the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Kuwait are mostly not welcome as anything above low level work.

This time, though, there is some serious political realignment happening. The US, in particular, has lost influence to Russia and China.

Ukraine is not a central factor in this realignment, but the Gulf countries all know that aligning solidly with any part is not in their own interest.

 

[hacer]

Hacer was asserting that the back of Japanese air power was broken by proximity fuzed AA shells, which were not in wide use until late 1944 and air to air combat with fighters shot down more than planes than AA. Japan's pilot quality was in sharp decline by mid-1943, before proximity fuzes came into use.
...

No, I was asserting that the battle of the Philippine Sea had everything to do with the VT-fuse, which it did.

 

[friit]

Here's an excellent article about Russian cultural and societal reality from the perspective of the heads of the three Baltic internal security services (counterintelligence).

It's a long read, but is essential reading especially to western audiences, who just think too differently to actually understand what Russian society and culture is like. These men have lived and thrived in the liminal space in and between the Soviet Union and the West, there should be no illusion that they don't get Russia and Russians.

Some quotes and excerpts:
"Chaos is a trait of Russian culture. There always needs to be a shepherd; otherwise, it’s anarchy,“ says Aleksander Toots who has led Estonian KAPO's efforts to catch dozens of Russian spies.

„Our assessments of Russia haven’t changed in the last 30 years,“ says Latvia's Normunds Mežviets. The chief analysis is this: Russia wishes to regain its status as an empire by any means. „To them, there are no states, only zones and territories.“

"It's no secret that the Baltic agencies have for years been the ones warning of what Russia's really up to. For a long time these warnings went to closed ears in Western Europe."

Toots says that to be fair, he can’t find any fault with Western intelligence services. „They know Russia well enough.“ In Europe and further afield, agents who are fully immersed in Russian matters echo a common understanding of the country and the threat it poses.

However, problems persist among politicians and heads of foreign intelligence agencies. Denial. Dismissal. Reducing everything to Putin and his closest circle because one shouldn’t pigeonhole all Russians or believe there exist common national characteristics.
Baltic counterintelligence officers’ conclusions about Russia are obverse. As one remarks: „Our understanding has been the polar opposite of the West’s.“ We co-inhabit the world with a country whose citizenry primarily adheres to a code of force. The war in Ukraine was not a surprise, but rather a logical progression. And at some point, it will repeat again.


Edit: don't click the audio version button as the voice reads English as Estonian. Or do if you prefer a laugh!

 

[JRP3]

Here's an excellent article about Russian cultural and societal reality from the perspective of the heads of the three Baltic internal security services (counterintelligence).

Fascinating read, and quite depressing.

 

[ZeApelido]

Russian military plane successfully striking an apartment building...

in Russia.

Military plane crashes into apartment building in western Russia

A military plane has crashed into an apartment building in Yeysk in western Russia, causing a huge fire and killing at least four people, according to local officials. Both pilots ejected from the plane before impact. The accident happened on early Monday evening when the plane, an Su-34 fighter...

bnonews.com

 

[Cosmacelf]

Frankly, I think U.S. intelligence had a pretty good idea of the woeful state of Russia’s military. However, that truth would undermine feeding the Military-Industrial Complex monster that holds so much sway over American politics and foreign policy. Just watch. As Russia is collapsing before our eyes like a slow motion car crash, the MICMonster is ramping up its anti-China rhetoric in order to continue feeding its voracious appetite.

I’m not saying China does not pose a threat, but the MICMonster must inflate that risk as concerns over Russian hegemony fade in the face of the pathetic reality of its capabilities.

Yes. I'm kinda of surprised that few people are pointing out the obvious (to me) that the US military is running their own show. ie. The Biden administration of appointed Cabinet members has very little input to the current Ukraine war and even the current sanctions war against China. The US military (and their contractors) are the ones calling the shots.

Anyone know who the current Secretary of State is? Normally when there is a conflict anywhere, especially a frigging war, the US Secretary of State is the most visible person. Likewise the Secretary of Defense. Heard their names much?

The China sanctions war is at least as interesting. On Friday, the administration announced out of the blue that China shall get zero access to advanced chipmaking. No chip sales, no chip manufacturing machines, no (US) experts. It's a huge deal, yet the press is largely silent about it. Why is it being done? Simply to degrade the Chinese military.

Given how hard core both Russia and Chinese leadership is, I don't think it is a bad thing that the equally hard line US military is confronting them. I just find it interesting.

 

[mongo]

The China sanctions war is at least as interesting. On Friday, the administration announced out of the blue that China shall get zero access to advanced chipmaking. No chip sales, no chip manufacturing machines, no (US) experts. It's a huge deal, yet the press is largely silent about it. Why is it being done? Simply to degrade the Chinese military.

Without a license...

As part of those rules, “U.S. persons” that support the development or production of certain chips in China, including those for military uses, require a license to do so.

Globally critical chip firm tells U.S. staff to stop servicing China customers after Biden export curbs

 

[nativewolf]

They have both been to Kiev at the point of greatest risk, at the same time. The sec of state was there again last month. Austin is pushing. The pushback in Biden admin is from
The national sec advisor who is the anti escalation mouthpiece. Idiot.

No doubt the chance to see the NATO trained units face off against russia is a wet dream to some in the pentagon. 70 years of training and plans and they finally get used.

 

[ElectricIAC]

They have both been to Kiev at the point of greatest risk, at the same time. The sec of state was there again last month. Austin is pushing. The pushback in Biden admin is from
The national sec advisor who is the anti escalation mouthpiece. Idiot.

No doubt the chance to see the NATO trained units face off against russia is a wet dream to some in the pentagon. 70 years of training and plans and they finally get used.

Those who celebrate wars are often the ones who observe from a distance.

 

[iPlug]

Those who celebrate wars are often the ones who observe from a distance.

Such as Putin.

 

[ElectricIAC]

Such as Putin.

And Jose.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Anyone know who the current Secretary of State is?

I heard its Abe Lincoln.

 

[ElectricIAC]

I heard its Abe Lincoln.

Isn’t it that Blinky guy who got dunked on by the PRC in Alaska?

 

[heltok]

Good article about the fake information that Russian diplomats have been giving to Putin:

The Sources of Russian Misconduct

A diplomat defects from the Kremlin.

www.foreignaffairs.com

 

[wdolson]

No, I was asserting that the battle of the Philippine Sea had everything to do with the VT-fuse, which it did.

The Japanese lost around 650 aircraft in that battle and about 400 are attributed to the F6F Hellcat fighters. I can't find an exact number on AA claims, but in the entire first half of 1944 the USN AA shot down 171 Japanese aircraft and that includes the invasion of the Marshall Islands, Operation Hailstone that rendered Truk useless to the Japanese, a couple of invasions in New Guinea supported by the USN, as well as many carrier raids to suppress Japanese air power for hundreds of miles around the Marianas before the invasion of Saipan. Quite a few of the land based aircraft destroyed in the Battle of the Philippine Sea were destroyed on the ground before the naval battle started.

I don't see how a technology that played a minority factor in the damage done in the battle is decisive?

The VT fuze was a major development that made a big difference for AA in the last year of the war, but the back of Japanese airpower was broken before that and fighters still got the bulk of shoot downs all the way to the end of the war. The proximity fuze made AA much more effective at dealing with the planes that slipped through air defenses and got them much further from the ships than the shorter range 40 mm and 20 mm guns. Even at that 40 mm and 20 mm accounted for some of the shoot downs in the last year of the war too.

Yes. I'm kinda of surprised that few people are pointing out the obvious (to me) that the US military is running their own show. ie. The Biden administration of appointed Cabinet members has very little input to the current Ukraine war and even the current sanctions war against China. The US military (and their contractors) are the ones calling the shots.

Anyone know who the current Secretary of State is? Normally when there is a conflict anywhere, especially a frigging war, the US Secretary of State is the most visible person. Likewise the Secretary of Defense. Heard their names much?

The China sanctions war is at least as interesting. On Friday, the administration announced out of the blue that China shall get zero access to advanced chipmaking. No chip sales, no chip manufacturing machines, no (US) experts. It's a huge deal, yet the press is largely silent about it. Why is it being done? Simply to degrade the Chinese military.

Given how hard core both Russia and Chinese leadership is, I don't think it is a bad thing that the equally hard line US military is confronting them. I just find it interesting.

I've seen Anthony Blinkin giving news conferences as well as going to Ukraine. He appears to be in the loop. I have seen less of Lloyd Austin, but he's around too. The politicos had too much hand in things early on which was leading to a confused response by the US. A few months back a DoD office was set up to coordinate all military aid given to Ukraine so the flow could be smoother.

Biden is taking a page from Roosevelt. He's not a military guy, but he knows he needs to weigh in on political decisions. He's leaving the day to day operation to the guys who know what they are doing and reserving his input to the political matters.

Ironically the previous guy talked up an anti-China line, but Biden is being very effective at cutting off products to China that would help their military.

Good article about the fake information that Russian diplomats have been giving to Putin:

The Sources of Russian Misconduct

A diplomat defects from the Kremlin.

www.foreignaffairs.com

I was just about to post that. It's a good article.

 

[lolachampcar]

Anyone know who the current Secretary of State is? Normally when there is a conflict anywhere, especially a frigging war, the US Secretary of State is the most visible person. Likewise the Secretary of Defense. Heard their names much?

I distinctly remember Austin visiting the area and talking about Russia degrading itself to the extent that it could not threaten its other neighbors. I believe Blinken was with him on that trip although my memory is not that good.

It would seem wise to fade into the background after making such a statement least you become the out front focus for the Russians to blame their current situation on.

Lastly, it is amazing to me that the US has turned into a bunch of adults that derive entertainment from attacking this or that person in government. There is no constructive criticism or even critical thinking applied to the basis for the attacks. It just feels good so they do it. The death of competence will follow.

 

[JRP3]

I distinctly remember Austin visiting the area and talking about Russia degrading itself to the extent that it could not threaten its other neighbors.

Considering the state of the Russian military he wasn't that far off. Problem was he was looking at it through rational eyes.

 

[lolachampcar]

Considering the state of the Russian military he wasn't that far off. Problem was he was looking at it through rational eyes.

It seems like it is playing out all be it at the cost of Ukrainian lives.

 

[nativewolf]

I distinctly remember Austin visiting the area and talking about Russia degrading itself to the extent that it could not threaten its other neighbors. I believe Blinken was with him on that trip although my memory is not that good.

It would seem wise to fade into the background after making such a statement least you become the out front focus for the Russians to blame their current situation on.

Lastly, it is amazing to me that the US has turned into a bunch of adults that derive entertainment from attacking this or that person in government. There is no constructive criticism or even critical thinking applied to the basis for the attacks. It just feels good so they do it. The death of competence will follow.

Blinkin was, at the same time. Which puts two of the top 10 successors to the President in a war zone at the same time. Huge visit. Blinkin was just there again.

 

[nativewolf]

Considering the state of the Russian military he wasn't that far off. Problem was he was looking at it through rational eyes.

He was talking about it as a policy goal which we discussed in some detail. It was a great speech, degrade russia to such an extent that the russian military could not harm others.