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Russia/Ukraine conflict

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A first past the post system is much better at filtering out extremist than countries where 2%-5% of the vote gets you into parliament.

Good grief could you imagine the US where more than 5% of the vote gets you into the US Parliament?

Marjorie Taylor Greene and AOC could both lead parties that got 5-10% of the vote.

It also has a tendency to lead to political stagnation, as you see in the USA and UK.

Transferable votes are possible way out of it, as that can allow for growth of alternatives.

The level of filtering also depends on the party politics, since it's party activists that control the party.

Then of course, the big question is whether filtering extremism is a desirable outcome. It implies that extremists are underrepresented.
 
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There is a book called American Nations by Colin Woodard is all about how all of North America is made up of different cultures that don't really fall into any political borders.
You previously recommended this book. I find it a constant resource on American history and cultures and the nations which make up our State. Thank you for an enlightening reference.
 
I was talking about how the world reacts to these places. It's not fantastic, but the alternative is to do what the US did to Iraq all over the world. That doesn't work either.

Democracy tends to work well in countries with high education levels and easy access to wide ranges of information over a long period of time. People who have been fed propaganda their entire lives tend to doubt everything they're told even when they are being told the truth.

Viktor Belenko made world news in 1976 when he flew his MiG-25 to Japan and defected to the United States. His counterintelligence handlers after his defection were working to get his trust. They first took him to a safe house and on the way stopped at a supermarket to pick up supplies. They realized he had disappeared and went looking for him. They found him staring at the meat case in bewilderment. All that meat, all of it fresh, and nobody was stealing it. That was his first moment of cognitive dissonance when he started to doubt the stuff he'd been told.

After that they told him they would show him just about anything he wanted. He wanted to see an American aircraft carrier up close. While watching deck operations he finally began to get the idea that the US was very, very different than portrayed in Soviet propaganda. He came to the conclusion that the US military really was all volunteer and these people completely trusted one another. Something impossible in the Soviet military. For deck operations to work, everyone on that deck has to completely trust everyone else to do their job flawlessly. And on top of that the captain of the ship cedes all control of the deck to an enlisted man. It's tradition for a pilot to salute the deck captain (a navy chief) before being launched. That's an officer asking an enlisted man permission to leave the ship.

But it took a first hand demonstration like that for it to sink in.

Russian media today is full of stories about how horrible life is in western Europe with people starving and freezing to death in England. To us outside Russia we know it's obvious BS, but for Russians, their only experience with democracy was chaos and the Russians who haven't been to western Europe (90%) it makes sense that people in England are starving because democracy=chaos.

Before democracy can have any chance in Russia, they need completely open media and an education system that teaches people to think for themselves and a generation for those people to grow up before it has any chance of even getting a decent start. And democracy there will be bucking a culture that is very paranoid about foreign influence.



Putin has worked very hard to get the population to be apolitical. Most Russians don't really have a strong opinion about Putin. If asked they will say they support him because they feel they have to, but overall they consider politics above their pay grade (American term for something that they don't care about because it's outside the scope of their life).



Alternative 2 is the scenario you describe here. If Putin was removed today, it would likely be Prigozhin who is much more of a war-hawk than Putin.



Who knows. Some of the former provinces, probably further west will look for protection from the west and as a result would fall under the western pro-democracy culture. The further eastern and south central provinces would gravitate towards China and the "stan" countries which are less democratically inclined.



Galeev is just one former Russian I've read. I posted a couple of articles from Timofey Vorobyov who grew up in Russia and now lives in Ukraine. His thoughts on Russian culture are completely congruent with Galeev's. I also have known a number of Russian immigrants. The one I currently know the best has "gone native". She married an American of Irish descent which was a horror to her family, but she has distanced herself to some degree from her native culture while still attending a Russian church. Her brother was super pro-Putin last I saw him.

She agrees with writers like Galeev and Vorobyov about Russian culture.



I didn't have many illusions about Russia before the invasion. I knew it was going to happen when quite a few were saying Putin was bluffing. I also could see Putin didn't have enough troops to secure Ukraine so I expected a bloody insurrection followed by an eventual withdrawal of Russia. I underestimated the ability of the Ukrainian army. But once I saw they were able to put up a fight, I predicted Russia was going to lose.

The western governments aren't above promoting a dictator they can work with if a full blown democracy isn't possible. They have done that many times in the last 80 years.



There are some in the US who would prefer to see something akin to a Nordic democracy in the US, but it won't work. A Nordic style democracy really only works when the core culture is fairly homogeneous. Sweden recently had surprise victories by the far right party in your elections in large part because the population is becoming less homogeneous due to immigration.

The US is the least homogeneous democracy in the world. The nations of Europe are nation-states where people with a particular cultural identity have come together and formed a nation. Norway and Sweden are different cultures and each has their own country. Here in the US Scandinavian immigrants often settled in the same towns and there was a lot of friction between the immigrant communities. My father was born in the US, but was ethnically 100% Swedish. He experienced the friction first hand in his home town and as soon as he could he moved to Los Angeles which has such a small Scandinavian population nobody cares.

The different regions of the United States have their own cultural identities that can be as distinctly different as the differences between Denmark and Spain. American politicians and some people who call themselves patriots like to talk about American exceptionalism like it means the US is the smartest kid in the class. But that's not what it actually means. The US was the first country to be founded on a set of principles rather than a shared cultural identity. It's an exception to the rule of nations. It's a nation of states rather than a nation-state.

There is a book called American Nations by Colin Woodard is all about how all of North America is made up of different cultures that don't really fall into any political borders. All the cultures in the US along the Canadian border cross the international border into Canada. And none of the cultures are defined within any particular state. I live in Washington state right on the borderline between two of the cultures and I've seen them mix uncomfortably in this town.

Mixed into this geographic culture divide, the US also has some cultures that are naturally ethnically mixed and others that have historically been mostly white people whose ancestors came from a small list of countries that are now seeing a lot of people who don't look like them move into their neighborhoods.

In these historically very white regions, there is extreme concern about immigration. A candidate in my Congressional district this last election wanted to completely stop all immigration to the US for 20 years with no exceptions. He came close to winning. Ironically he lost to someone who was of Mexican descent.

Whenever any expansion of any kind of social safety nets comes up, the people concerned about the browning of the US tend to be the ones speaking out most loudly against the idea. They don't want "those people" to get "their money".

If Russia did manage to be convinced to try democracy, it probably wouldn't look like a Nordic democracy because Russia is very multi-ethnic. The white Russians are a minority in charge of a country that is mostly other ethnic groups. They wouldn't want to give other ethnic groups any chance of taking their power away. In a Russia that has balkanized along ethnic lines, democracy may be possible within some of those new countries given time and the right environment. The white Russian country would probably hermitize and become another North Korea. But that's just my guess. If Russia breaks up there are many possibilities for the new map and that will determine the fate of the new countries.

My time for discussion is up for this time around. If anything more of this is going to be countered, it's going to have to come from someone else...
 
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I am familiar with close to 50 years of politics in Israel, a multi-party democracy. Exactly the opposite of what you claim occurs because a couple of small parties make or break the government. The specifics matter a lot, so I'll accept that this is a YMMV.
There are always exceptions.

I think a lot depends on whether (some) of the players have hinterlands that mean they are basically zealots and not interested in reasoned outcomes.

Especially when the hinterlands stretch beyond the local polity. For example geographically into other countries; or are non-temporal and religous in nature; or ideological; etc.

(I only have 35-years experience of Israeli matters, but that's not the only country that has the same issue and is multi-party in nature. Also the same drivers affect FPTP systems were parties-with-parties emerge.)
 
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Due to the success of the American Patriot anti- missile, many countries, including Russia, have developed hypersonic missiles that travel in excess of Mach 12. They can change directions mid flight, and are essentially impossible to shoot down after launch.
Probably very limited in volume, but probably being rushed into service since the invasion.
Only way to defeat them is to kill them before launch.

Now that the gloves are off, and Ukraine has begun attacking Russia inside it's borders, the intensity will increase. Russians will need to come to terms that the war will not only be fought on Ukraine soil, but also make their own cities (Moscow) vulnerable. The Onion Domes are of tremendous significance to the Russians. One missile strike destroying them will cause tremendous consernation.
 
Unassuming N.H. Craft Shop Owner Helped Run Sprawling Russian Spy Ring: Feds ‘THE NICEST FAMILY’
Alexey Brayman is one of seven people accused of working with the “Serniya” network to smuggle classified military information and technology to Russia.

A quiet New Hampshire home out of which a married couple ran their online craft business covertly doubled as a clearinghouse for “millions of dollars in military and sensitive dual-use technologies from U.S. manufacturers and vendors,” which an alleged smuggling ring shipped to Russia over the course of at least five years, according to a sprawling 16-count federal indictment unsealed Tuesday.​
 
That does not capture their true influence. The coalition needed their support to form the slimmest of a majority, so their political weight is far beyond what their representation might suggest by numbers alone.

It often is. In a parliamentary system it's the way small parties can get influence.

1. Immigrants that have become Swedish citizens or that have been granted permission to continue living in Sweden have rights. They can't just be sent back to whatever country they came from...

2. Again: 20% does not equal any kind of win that results in some absolute amount of power. Everything the Sweden Democrats want to do will have to be negotiated with the others that hold roughly 30%. And those in the 30% are not going to agree to do everything the Sweden Democrats might want do...

I never implied they were running the government. A minor party capturing 20% of parliament is an indication that the primary cause of that party is striking resonance with a large enough majority of the population that it should be concerning to anyone watching political trends. Where the US is now didn't happen overnight. It's been 30 years in the making.

The US has always had the extremes like the members of Congress that make the news, but they tended to just protest and join fringe groups that had no political power. Now some of those very fringe characters are in a position to make laws and there are very vocal people in media positions who support them.

It seems to me that most US-formed people tend not to understand how typical parliamentary democracies work. The difference between multi-party coalitions and a two-party system is profound. When both types are sold democracies the two part system invariably draws more extreme views than does a multi-party system. Both can yield to extreme views but it's much harder to do so when coalitions are needed.

A lot of Americans don't understand much about other countries. I introduced my neighbors to British Christmas crackers last weekend and none of them had ever heard of them. I pay attention to news from all the English speaking countries and know a fair bit about the politics in each country.

I have thought for some time the US would be better off with a parliamentary system.

There I disagree. if first past the post must be, ranked choice voting seems to work very well.
Alaska is a prime example just now. Australia and Ireland have used it a long time. That is not a panacea, but it does improve the odds for some civility, as this old Economist article suggested:

There is a learning curve and a lot of people are resistant to learning. There was an initiative on the ballot in this county to do ranked choice voting here for county elections, but it got voted down by a healthy margin.

With ranked choice voting you can take a flyer and vote for a less popular candidate you truly like and then back it up with choosing the more likely to win candidate you can tolerate as your second choice. It eliminates the situation where a third party candidate who has no chance of winning, but a minority following of significance from opening the door for a radical with a larger minority from slipping in.

That's what happened in the 2016 presidential race. The vote for Jill Stein was larger in many close battleground states than the margin of Clinton's loss. With ranked choice voting the Stein vote probably would have put Clinton second and she would have won those states. Not that I think she would have made a stellar president, but she would have been better than what we got. I'll take annoying but competent over annoying and incompetent any day.

In Alaska this time around Sarah Palin was able to come in second for the Congressional seat, but Peltola ended up winning by 10 points because Palin got almost none of the second choice votes. People were able to make a statement about preferring someone other than the eventual top two candidates in the first round, but they settled on Peltola in the end over the extremist candidate.

You previously recommended this book. I find it a constant resource on American history and cultures and the nations which make up our State. Thank you for an enlightening reference.

I refer back to the book often. It really touches on something in the US culture that most people don't really realize is there. It was recommended to me by someone else on the forum a few years ago.


If Russia gets ballistic missiles again it will make it more difficult to get them to the target. It's a good sign.

Due to the success of the American Patriot anti- missile, many countries, including Russia, have developed hypersonic missiles that travel in excess of Mach 12. They can change directions mid flight, and are essentially impossible to shoot down after launch.
Probably very limited in volume, but probably being rushed into service since the invasion.
Only way to defeat them is to kill them before launch.

Now that the gloves are off, and Ukraine has begun attacking Russia inside it's borders, the intensity will increase. Russians will need to come to terms that the war will not only be fought on Ukraine soil, but also make their own cities (Moscow) vulnerable. The Onion Domes are of tremendous significance to the Russians. One missile strike destroying them will cause tremendous consernation.

Missiles that are hypersonic in some part of their flight is not unusual. There was a lot of hype when the Kinzhal was first used in Ukraine, but it doesn't appear Russia has very many of them and they aren't as sophisticated as the true hypersonic missiles under development by China and the US. The Kinzhal is also air launched and can be carried by Russian tactical bombers like the MiG-31K. The Kinzhal is essentially an air launched Iskander, difficult to counter, but not impossible.
 
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Why don't we table the fairly off topic on parliamentary systems of govt. Just a suggestion, not trying to moderate.

The original question was post war what then russia? Frankly who knows? Russians have lots to decide and think about. Since what then is built first around how now proceeds maybe lets keep to what now.

USA supplying Patriot systems to Ukraine would, as @petit_bateau points out, be a big game changer. That's a large envelope and while not a perfect system it would say USA is going to support Ukraine to a considerable extent. This, not perfect but good, system is very expensive and high profile. The battery alone is about a billion USD. Missles are 3 each. This dwarfs the costs of the entire HIMARS fleet, each was 5 million or so when we purchased them. It's a big high stakes statement.

Abrams and f16s next please. Especially since the f16 will literally rust away on a salt flat.
 

Several posters have been waiting for the Ukrainian move to melitopol, I thought a hard push towards Svatove/Starbolisk was going to be the diversion to enable this but weather intervened and Kherson was slow to develop. Now things are getting cold but no sub 0 days so it remains..mud. The thinking I've seen is UAF are waiting for colder weather, maybe in a week or two.
 
Unassuming N.H. Craft Shop Owner Helped Run Sprawling Russian Spy Ring: Feds ‘THE NICEST FAMILY’
Alexey Brayman is one of seven people accused of working with the “Serniya” network to smuggle classified military information and technology to Russia.

A quiet New Hampshire home out of which a married couple ran their online craft business covertly doubled as a clearinghouse for “millions of dollars in military and sensitive dual-use technologies from U.S. manufacturers and vendors,” which an alleged smuggling ring shipped to Russia over the course of at least five years, according to a sprawling 16-count federal indictment unsealed Tuesday.​
There’s at least one suspected FSB agent who was already held in Estonia (Vadim Konoshchenok) expected to be extradited to the United States. Have to wonder if the U.S. knew this was in play when we made the ostensibly bad trade of Bout for Griner.
 
There are always exceptions.

Calling Israel an exception is to ignore that the 50 years of politics I mentioned has been in flux and spanned multiple political ideologies. It is one place, but it has many examples with different players. Even though parliament has a minimum percentage of the vote for a party to gain seats, the better part of up to a dozen different parties win representation each election. The centrist parties are themselves relatively small, and particularly vulnerable to their extreme flanks.

The ultra-religious parties banded together early on and leveraged their power. For the first 20 or so years of Israel these parties had a marriage of convenience with the center-left, but as the right-wing parties gained power the ultra-religious find more common ground with the nationalistic parties and Israel has been heading towards autocracy and religious extremism ever since. It is curious that the US has had much the same trajectory due to the Evangelicals.

Multi-party politics does not prevent Autocracy/Fascism. And depending on the specifics, weak/corrupt centrist parties give openings to extremists that subvert the democratic institutions.
 
Why don't we table the fairly off topic on parliamentary systems of govt. Just a suggestion, not trying to moderate.

The original question was post war what then russia? Frankly who knows? Russians have lots to decide and think about. Since what then is built first around how now proceeds maybe lets keep to what now.

USA supplying Patriot systems to Ukraine would, as @petit_bateau points out, be a big game changer. That's a large envelope and while not a perfect system it would say USA is going to support Ukraine to a considerable extent. This, not perfect but good, system is very expensive and high profile. The battery alone is about a billion USD. Missles are 3 each. This dwarfs the costs of the entire HIMARS fleet, each was 5 million or so when we purchased them. It's a big high stakes statement.

Abrams and f16s next please. Especially since the f16 will literally rust away on a salt flat.

One thing I wish the media would report is that a fair bit of the gear that the US has sent is spare stuff the US will probably not use again. The US has a lot of equipment that is a generation or more old that is just collecting dust. Some of that stuff has already been sent, and there is more that can be sent. I saw a video last night that I think was posted here about the argument between the Air Force and the DoD about what to do with the older Reaper drones. The USAF wants to get rid of them because there are newer drones systems, but the DoD is concerned about the tech falling into Russian hands.

The F-16s in storage aren't going anywhere. Titanium doesn't rust and aircraft are preserved before they are put into long term storage. I would not be surprised if the US isn't secretly training Ukrainian ground crews in maintaining the F-16. Training pilots will go quicker than the ground crews. The typical ground crew course is around a year long. The F-16 is a very different aircraft from anything the Ukrainian ground crews have seen before.

If there is any ammunition for them the US has a lot of 105mm Abrams in storage. The only time the US is ever going to use those is if something has gone catastrophically wrong. The US would tap the several hundred M1A1s with 120mm guns before they dug down for the M1s with the 105s. I don't know if there is any ammunition left for the 105mm though. That AT gun has been out of service long enough the ammunition stores may no longer be viable.

But again the problem with Abrams is maintenance. Those tanks are from a different universe than the Russian/Soviet T series tanks. They require different maintenance protocols and the Ukrainian maintenance people would have to be trained on the new system.

Giving the Ukrainians other western vehicles is a lot easier, they are simpler to maintain. The HIMARS is built on a regular US truck chassis. The 155mm SP Guns need special maintenance for the guns, but the vehicles they are built on are simpler than the Abrams. Similar things with the armored cars the west has given Ukraine.

Anything the west gives Ukraine needs at least basic maintenance be done inside Ukraine with Ukrainian crews. The more complex maintenance can be done in Poland with international crews, but there are a lot of little things that have to be done all the time and the local people need to know how to do them.
 
There’s at least one suspected FSB agent who was already held in Estonia (Vadim Konoshchenok) expected to be extradited to the United States. Have to wonder if the U.S. knew this was in play when we made the ostensibly bad trade of Bout for Griner.
Very good timing. I was thinking that the administration knew about this coming. A whole group of spies in one swoop. Gotta make Putin feel like he's getting something. Next the whiners will be complaining about giving up real spies for regular Americans.